PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSIONS FOR 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD 300 PM EST FRI NOV 03 2006 6-10 DAY OUTLOOK VALID FOR NOV 09 - 13 2006 TODAYS MODEL RUNS REMAIN IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT IN PHASING OVER THE PACIFIC NORTH AMERICA SECTOR DURING THE 6-10 DAY FORECAST PERIOD... WITH THE PREDICTED AMPLITUDES OF LONG WAVES BEING MORE UNCERTAIN. STARTING WITH UPSTREAM CIRCULATION FEATURES AT 500-HPA... ALL MODELS AGREE ON A STRONG BLOCKING RIDGE NEAR THE KAMCHATKA PENINSULA AND A DOWNSTREAM TROUGH OVER ALASKA AND THE ADJACENT GULF. THERE IS SOMEWHAT BETTER SUPPORT TODAY FOR THE KAMCHATKA BLOCK TO UNDERGO RETROGRESSION OVER EASTERN SIBERIA. THE DOWNSTREAM NEGATIVE HEIGHT ANOMALY CENTER ASSOCIATED WITH THE ALASKA TROUGH IS PREDICTED TO BE OVER OR NEAR THE UPPER PORTION OF THE SOUTHEAST PANHANDLE. THIS WILL MEAN CONTINUED COLDER THAN NORMAL SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS FOR MOST OF THE 49TH STATE. ANOMALOUS RIDGES ARE FORECAST OVER THE TEMPERATE EAST PACIFIC AND THE NORTHEAST U.S. BY MOST SOLUTIONS. AS IS OFTEN THE CASE... THE OPERATIONAL RUNS PREDICT MORE INTENSE LONG WAVE FEATURES THAN DO THE ENSEMBLE MEANS AND THIS IS ALSO TRUE TODAY. BETWEEN THESE TWO RIDGES... ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN - ROCKIES - AND PLAINS... THE MAJORITY OF SOLUTIONS INDICATE A BREAKTHROUGH OF NEGATIVE HEIGHT ANOMALIES WHICH EXTEND FROM ALASKA TO TEXAS. AN ENHANCED ANOMALOUS WESTERLY JET IS EXPECTED BETWEEN THE MEAN TROUGH OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA AND MEAN RIDGE OVER THE MIDDLE LATITUDE EAST PACIFIC... WHICH WILL USHER IN MILD PACIFIC AIR ACROSS THE LOWER 48 STATES AND KEEP ANY ARCTIC AIR WELL NORTH OF THE CANADIAN BORDER. TODAYS OFFICIAL 500-HPA BLEND CONSISTS OF 15 PERCENT OF TODAY'S OPERATIONAL 0Z GFS CENTERED ON DAY 8...15 PERCENT OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8...15 PERCENT OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8...25 PERCENT OF TODAY'S GFS SUPERENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8...15 PERCENT OF TODAY'S CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8...AND 15 PERCENT OF TODAY'S EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 7. MODEL(S) OF THE DAY: GFS SUPERENSEMBLE MEAN FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD IS ABOVE AVERAGE... 4 ON A SCALE OF 1 TO 5. THE 6-10 DAY TEMPERATURE PROG IS BASED ON THE KLEIN AND NEURAL NET AND ANALOG SPECIFICATIONS FROM THE OFFICIAL BLENDED HEIGHTS ... THE CPC AUTO FORECAST... AND THE CDC FORECAST TOOL. THE 6-10 DAY PRECIPITATION PROG IS BASED ON THE CPC AUTO FORECAST...THE CDC FORECAST TOOL...CALIBRATED PRECIPITATION FROM THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS...AND ANALOG AND NEURAL NET SPECIFICATIONS FROM THE OFFICIAL BLENDED HEIGHTS. 8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR NOV 11 - 17 2006: FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD... MOST OF THE MODEL RUNS ARE SUGGESTING AN EASTWARD SHIFT OF THE WESTERN TROUGH INTO THE GREAT PLAINS. THIS IMPLIES SIGNIFICANT STORM ACTIVITY FROM EAST TEXAS AND THE WESTERN GULF STATES NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES. PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO BE ABOVE AVERAGE ACROSS MUCH OF THIS AREA. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES FROM THE 6-10 DAY FORECAST PERIOD ARE EXPECTED FOR ALASKA. BEING DOMINATED BY A MODERATELY STRONG TROUGH... ALASKA WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO BE COLD AND DRY WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE SOUTHEAST PANHANDLE AREA. THE OFFICIAL 8-14 DAY HEIGHT PROG CONSISTS OF 10 PERCENT OF TODAY'S OPERATIONAL 0Z GFS CENTERED ON DAY 11...10 PERCENT OF TODAY'S OPERATIONAL 6Z GFS CENTERED ON DAY 11...20 PERCENT OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11...20 PERCENT OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11...AND 40 PERCENT OF TODAY'S GFS SUPERENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11. FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD IS NEAR AVERAGE TODAY... 3 ON A SCALE OF 1 TO 5... DUE TO DECENT PHASE AGREEMENT ... BUT OFFSET BY VARIATIONS IN PREDICTED WAVE AMPLITUDES. THE 8-14 DAY TEMPERATURE PROG IS BASED ON THE KLEIN AND NEURAL NET AND ANALOG SPECIFICATIONS FROM THE OFFICIAL BLENDED HEIGHTS ... THE CPC AUTO FORECAST... AND THE CDC FORECAST TOOL. THE 8-14 DAY PRECIPITATION PROG IS BASED ON THE CPC AUTO FORECAST...THE CDC FORECAST TOOL...CALIBRATED PRECIPITATION FROM THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS...AND ANALOG AND NEURAL NET SPECIFICATIONS FROM THE OFFICIAL BLENDED HEIGHTS. FORECASTER: A. ARTUSA NOTES: OPERATIONAL CHANGE: AS OF JULY 5 2005 SHADED MAPS HAVE REPLACED THE CONTOUR-ONLY MAPS ON THE CPC WEB SITE. THE CONTOURED MAPS ARE STILL AVAILABLE AT THEIR CURRENT FILE NAMES - SO DIRECT-LINKED USERS ARE NOT AFFECTED. AWIPS GRAPHICS ARE ALSO NOT AFFECTED BY THIS CHANGE. AUTOMATED FORECASTS ARE ISSUED ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. OTHERWISE - FORECASTS INCORPORATE FORECASTER INPUT. THE NOTATION FOR THE CATEGORICAL FORECAST INDICATED ON THE MAPS IS THE SAME AS THAT IN THE TABLES: A-ABOVE N-NEAR NORMAL B-BELOW IN THE SOUTHWEST AND OTHER CLIMATOLOGICALLY DRY REGIONS - THERE WILL BE A GREATER THAN 33.3% CHANCE OF NO PRECIPITATION AND OCCASIONALLY EVEN A NORMAL (I.E. MEDIAN) VALUE OF ZERO - ESPECIALLY DURING THE DRY SEASONS. IN SUCH CASES A FORECAST OF NEAR NORMAL IS EFFECTIVELY A FORECAST OF LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION. THE NARRATIVE DESCRIPTION OF THE FORECAST PATTERNS FOR TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION FOR BOTH THE 6-10 OR 8-14 DAY PERIODS HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED. THE STATE TABLES FOR BOTH THE 6-10 AND 8-14 DAY PERIODS ARE NOW CONTAINED IN THIS MESSAGE...AVAILABLE AS PMDMRD ON AWIPS. THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER USES 1971-2000 BASE PERIOD MEANS FOR TEMPERATURE...PRECIPITATION...AND 500-HPA HEIGHTS AS REFERENCE IN THE CLIMATE OUTLOOKS. THE NEXT SET OF LONG-LEAD MONTHLY AND SEASONAL OUTLOOKS WILL BE RELEASED ON NOVEMBER 16. NEW NOTE EFFECTIVE MAR 16 2004: THE GLOSSARY FORMERLY FOUND AT THIS LOCATION WILL NO LONGER BE TRANSMITTED AS PART OF THIS MESSAGE. IF YOU WISH TO SEE THE DEFINITIONS OF TERMS USED IN THESE MESSAGES... PLEASE GO TO THE CPC WEB PAGE AT (USE LOWER CASE) HTTP://WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV AND FOLLOW THE APPROPRIATE LINKS. ANALOGS TO THE 5 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 3 DAYS AGO (D-3) FOR THE REGION FROM 20N to 70N LATITUDE AND 175E to 60W LONGITUDE INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES: 19731107 - 19731102 - 19821017 - 19961101 - 19691022 ANALOGS TO THE 7 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 4 DAYS AGO (D-4) FOR THE REGION FROM 20N to 70N LATITUDE AND 175E to 60W LONGITUDE INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES: 19731107 - 19961101 - 19821017 - 19731102 - 19931013 6 to 10 day Outlook Table OUTLOOK FOR NOV 09 - 13, 2006 STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN WASHINGTON N A OREGON N A NRN CALIF B N SRN CALIF B N IDAHO N A NEVADA B A W MONTANA N A E MONTANA N A WYOMING N A UTAH B A ARIZONA B N COLORADO N A NEW MEXICO N N N DAKOTA A A S DAKOTA A A NEBRASKA A A KANSAS A N OKLAHOMA A A N TEXAS A A S TEXAS A N W TEXAS N N MINNESOTA A A IOWA A A MISSOURI A A ARKANSAS A A LOUISIANA A A WISCONSIN A A ILLINOIS A A MISSISSIPPI A A MICHIGAN A A INDIANA A A OHIO A A KENTUCKY A A TENNESSEE A A ALABAMA A A NEW YORK A N VERMONT A N NEW HAMP A N MAINE A N MASS A N CONN A N RHODE IS A N PENN A A NEW JERSEY A N W VIRGINIA A A MARYLAND A N DELAWARE A N VIRGINIA A A N CAROLINA A A S CAROLINA A A GEORGIA A A FL PNHDL A A FL PENIN A A AK N SLOPE B B AK ALEUTIAN B B AK WESTERN B B AK INT BSN B B AK S INT B B AK SO COAST B B AK PNHDL B A 8 to 14 day Outlook Table OUTLOOK FOR NOV 11 - 17, 2006 STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN WASHINGTON N A OREGON N A NRN CALIF N N SRN CALIF N N IDAHO N A NEVADA N N W MONTANA N A E MONTANA N N WYOMING B N UTAH B N ARIZONA B N COLORADO B N NEW MEXICO B B N DAKOTA N N S DAKOTA N N NEBRASKA N N KANSAS N N OKLAHOMA N N N TEXAS N N S TEXAS N N W TEXAS N B MINNESOTA N A IOWA A A MISSOURI A A ARKANSAS A A LOUISIANA A A WISCONSIN A A ILLINOIS A A MISSISSIPPI A A MICHIGAN A A INDIANA A A OHIO A A KENTUCKY A A TENNESSEE A A ALABAMA A A NEW YORK A A VERMONT A A NEW HAMP A N MAINE A N MASS A N CONN A A RHODE IS A N PENN A A NEW JERSEY A A W VIRGINIA A A MARYLAND A A DELAWARE A A VIRGINIA A A N CAROLINA A A S CAROLINA A N GEORGIA A A FL PNHDL A N FL PENIN A B AK N SLOPE B B AK ALEUTIAN B N AK WESTERN B B AK INT BSN B B AK S INT B B AK SO COAST B B AK PNHDL B N LEGEND TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN A - ABOVE N - NEAR NORMAL A - ABOVE N - NEAR MEDIAN B - BELOW B - BELOW THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS PMDMRD. $$