PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSIONS FOR 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD 300 PM EST WED NOV 01 2006 6-10 DAY OUTLOOK VALID FOR NOV 07 - 11 2006 TODAYS MODEL RUNS ARE AGAIN IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT OVER THE PACIFIC NORTH AMERICA SECTOR DURING THE 6-10 DAY FORECAST PERIOD... THOUGH THERE ARE SOME RELATIVELY MINOR YET IMPORTANT SHIFTS IN THE PREDICTED LOCATIONS OF THE LONG WAVES. STARTING WITH UPSTREAM CIRCULATION FEATURES AT 500-HPA... MOST MODELS AGREE ON A STRONG BLOCKING RIDGE NEAR THE KAMCHATKA PENINSULA AND A DOWNSTREAM TROUGH OVER ALASKA AND THE ADJACENT GULF. SOME OF THE RUNS HINT AT SLIGHT RETROGRESSION OF THESE FEATURES... WHILE OTHERS KEEP THEM IN THE SAME GENERAL LOCATIONS. THE NEGATIVE HEIGHT ANOMALY CENTER ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LATTER FEATURE IS PREDICTED TO BE OVER THE NORTH-CENTRAL OR NORTHEASTERN GULF OF ALASKA. A GENERAL CONSENSUS OF MODELS SUGGESTS A VERY BROAD TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE CONUS DURING THIS FORECAST PERIOD. A LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGE IS FORECAST OVER THE TEMPERATE EAST PACIFIC... AND A MODERATE RIDGE IS SHOWN OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION PRIMARILY IN THE HEIGHT ANOMALY FIELD. BETWEEN THESE TWO FEATURES... ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN - ROCKIES - AND PLAINS... THE MAJORITY OF SOLUTIONS INDICATE A BREAKTHROUGH OF NEGATIVE HEIGHT ANOMALIES WHICH EXTEND FROM ALASKA TO TEXAS. TODAYS OFFICIAL 500-HPA BLEND CONSISTS OF 10 PERCENT OF TODAY'S OPERATIONAL 0Z GFS CENTERED ON DAY 8...10 PERCENT OF TODAY'S OPERATIONAL 6Z GFS CENTERED ON DAY 8...10 PERCENT OF TODAY'S OPERATIONAL ECMWF CENTERED ON DAY 7...25 PERCENT OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8...25 PERCENT OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8...AND 20 PERCENT OF TODAY'S EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 7. MODEL(S) OF THE DAY: 0Z AND 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEANS (TIED) FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD IS SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE... 4 ON A SCALE OF 1 TO 5. THE 6-10 DAY TEMPERATURE PROG IS BASED ON THE KLEIN AND NEURAL NET AND ANALOG SPECIFICATIONS FROM THE OFFICIAL BLENDED HEIGHTS ... THE CPC AUTO FORECAST... AND THE CDC FORECAST TOOL. THE 6-10 DAY PRECIPITATION PROG IS BASED ON THE CPC AUTO FORECAST...THE CDC FORECAST TOOL...CALIBRATED PRECIPITATION FROM THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS...AND ANALOG AND NEURAL NET SPECIFICATIONS FROM THE OFFICIAL BLENDED HEIGHTS. 8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR NOV 09 - 15 2006: FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD... THE 500-HPA HEIGHT SIMULATIONS AND CORRESPONDING SURFACE TOOLS ARE INDICATING RAPID CHANGES IN THE TEMPERATURE PATTERN ACROSS THE WESTERN U.S.. FALLING HEIGHTS AND FALLING SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST ACROSS THIS REGION. THE UPSTREAM FEATURES NOTED EARLIER FOR DAYS 6-10 ACROSS THE NORTHERN PACIFIC AND ALASKA WILL PERSIST... AND THIS IMPLIES A CONTINUATION OF COLD DRY NORTHERLY FLOW ACROSS ALASKA. THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEANS FOR WEEK 2 DEPICT MODESTLY LOWERED HEIGHTS ACROSS THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL STATES BUT THE OPERATIONAL 0Z GFS RUN IS FORECASTING HEIGHT FALLS OF -120 TO -160 METERS ACROSS THIS SAME AREA. ACROSS MOST OF EASTERN NORTH AMERICA ... MID-TROPOSPHERIC HEIGHTS ARE PREDICTED TO BE GENERALLY ABOVE AVERAGE... WITH AN ASSOCIATED POSITIVE HEIGHT ANOMALY CENTER LOCATED OVER NEW ENGLAND. THE OFFICIAL 8-14 DAY HEIGHT PROG CONSISTS OF 10 PERCENT OF TODAY'S OPERATIONAL 0Z GFS CENTERED ON DAY 11...10 PERCENT OF TODAY'S OPERATIONAL 6Z GFS CENTERED ON DAY 11...20 PERCENT OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11...20 PERCENT OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11...AND 40 PERCENT OF TODAY'S GFS SUPERENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11. FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD IS NEAR AVERAGE TODAY... 3 ON A SCALE OF 1 TO 5... DUE TO GOOD PHASE AGREEMENT ...BUT OFFSET BY VARIATIONS IN PREDICTED WAVE AMPLITUDES. AS THE MEAN TROUGH CARVES OUT OVER THE WEST, THERE WILL LIKELY BE TIMING ISSUES REGARDING INDIVIDUAL SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCES. THE 8-14 DAY TEMPERATURE PROG IS BASED ON THE KLEIN AND NEURAL NET AND ANALOG SPECIFICATIONS FROM THE OFFICIAL BLENDED HEIGHTS ... THE CPC AUTO FORECAST... AND THE CDC FORECAST TOOL. THE 8-14 DAY PRECIPITATION PROG IS BASED ON THE CPC AUTO FORECAST...THE CDC FORECAST TOOL...CALIBRATED PRECIPITATION FROM THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS...AND ANALOG AND NEURAL NET SPECIFICATIONS FROM THE OFFICIAL BLENDED HEIGHTS. FORECASTER: A. ARTUSA NOTES: OPERATIONAL CHANGE: AS OF JULY 5 2005 SHADED MAPS HAVE REPLACED THE CONTOUR-ONLY MAPS ON THE CPC WEB SITE. THE CONTOURED MAPS ARE STILL AVAILABLE AT THEIR CURRENT FILE NAMES - SO DIRECT-LINKED USERS ARE NOT AFFECTED. AWIPS GRAPHICS ARE ALSO NOT AFFECTED BY THIS CHANGE. AUTOMATED FORECASTS ARE ISSUED ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. OTHERWISE - FORECASTS INCORPORATE FORECASTER INPUT. THE NOTATION FOR THE CATEGORICAL FORECAST INDICATED ON THE MAPS IS THE SAME AS THAT IN THE TABLES: A-ABOVE N-NEAR NORMAL B-BELOW IN THE SOUTHWEST AND OTHER CLIMATOLOGICALLY DRY REGIONS - THERE WILL BE A GREATER THAN 33.3% CHANCE OF NO PRECIPITATION AND OCCASIONALLY EVEN A NORMAL (I.E. MEDIAN) VALUE OF ZERO - ESPECIALLY DURING THE DRY SEASONS. IN SUCH CASES A FORECAST OF NEAR NORMAL IS EFFECTIVELY A FORECAST OF LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION. THE NARRATIVE DESCRIPTION OF THE FORECAST PATTERNS FOR TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION FOR BOTH THE 6-10 OR 8-14 DAY PERIODS HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED. THE STATE TABLES FOR BOTH THE 6-10 AND 8-14 DAY PERIODS ARE NOW CONTAINED IN THIS MESSAGE...AVAILABLE AS PMDMRD ON AWIPS. THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER USES 1971-2000 BASE PERIOD MEANS FOR TEMPERATURE...PRECIPITATION...AND 500-HPA HEIGHTS AS REFERENCE IN THE CLIMATE OUTLOOKS. THE NEXT SET OF LONG-LEAD MONTHLY AND SEASONAL OUTLOOKS WILL BE RELEASED ON NOVEMBER 16. AN UPDATED MONTHLY FORECAST FOR NOVEMBER WILL BE ISSUED ON OCTOBER 31. NEW NOTE EFFECTIVE MAR 16 2004: THE GLOSSARY FORMERLY FOUND AT THIS LOCATION WILL NO LONGER BE TRANSMITTED AS PART OF THIS MESSAGE. IF YOU WISH TO SEE THE DEFINITIONS OF TERMS USED IN THESE MESSAGES... PLEASE GO TO THE CPC WEB PAGE AT (USE LOWER CASE) HTTP://WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV AND FOLLOW THE APPROPRIATE LINKS. ANALOGS TO THE 5 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 3 DAYS AGO (D-3) FOR THE REGION FROM 20N to 70N LATITUDE AND 175E to 60W LONGITUDE INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES: 19961101 - 19731107 - 19821017 - 19881025 - 19731102 ANALOGS TO THE 7 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 4 DAYS AGO (D-4) FOR THE REGION FROM 20N to 70N LATITUDE AND 175E to 60W LONGITUDE INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES: 19961101 - 19971023 - 19731106 - 19551111 - 19821016 6 to 10 day Outlook Table OUTLOOK FOR NOV 07 - 11, 2006 STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN WASHINGTON A A OREGON A A NRN CALIF N N SRN CALIF A N IDAHO A A NEVADA N A W MONTANA A A E MONTANA A A WYOMING A A UTAH N A ARIZONA A N COLORADO A A NEW MEXICO A N N DAKOTA A A S DAKOTA A A NEBRASKA A A KANSAS A A OKLAHOMA A A N TEXAS A A S TEXAS A A W TEXAS A N MINNESOTA A A IOWA A A MISSOURI A A ARKANSAS A A LOUISIANA A A WISCONSIN A A ILLINOIS A A MISSISSIPPI A A MICHIGAN A A INDIANA A A OHIO A A KENTUCKY A A TENNESSEE A A ALABAMA A A NEW YORK A N VERMONT A N NEW HAMP A N MAINE A N MASS A N CONN A N RHODE IS A N PENN A N NEW JERSEY A N W VIRGINIA A A MARYLAND A N DELAWARE A N VIRGINIA A A N CAROLINA A A S CAROLINA A A GEORGIA A A FL PNHDL A A FL PENIN A N AK N SLOPE B B AK ALEUTIAN B B AK WESTERN B B AK INT BSN B B AK S INT B B AK SO COAST B B AK PNHDL B A 8 to 14 day Outlook Table OUTLOOK FOR NOV 09 - 15, 2006 STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN WASHINGTON N A OREGON N A NRN CALIF N N SRN CALIF B N IDAHO N A NEVADA B A W MONTANA N A E MONTANA N A WYOMING N A UTAH B N ARIZONA B N COLORADO N N NEW MEXICO N N N DAKOTA N A S DAKOTA N A NEBRASKA N A KANSAS N N OKLAHOMA N N N TEXAS N N S TEXAS N N W TEXAS N N MINNESOTA N A IOWA A A MISSOURI A A ARKANSAS A A LOUISIANA N A WISCONSIN A A ILLINOIS A A MISSISSIPPI A A MICHIGAN A A INDIANA A A OHIO A A KENTUCKY A A TENNESSEE A A ALABAMA A A NEW YORK A N VERMONT A N NEW HAMP A N MAINE A N MASS A N CONN A N RHODE IS A N PENN A A NEW JERSEY A N W VIRGINIA A A MARYLAND A N DELAWARE A N VIRGINIA A A N CAROLINA A N S CAROLINA A N GEORGIA A N FL PNHDL A N FL PENIN A B AK N SLOPE B B AK ALEUTIAN B N AK WESTERN B B AK INT BSN B B AK S INT B B AK SO COAST B B AK PNHDL B N LEGEND TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN A - ABOVE N - NEAR NORMAL A - ABOVE N - NEAR MEDIAN B - BELOW B - BELOW THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS PMDMRD. $$