PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSIONS FOR 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD 300 PM EDT TUE OCT 17 2006 6-10 DAY OUTLOOK VALID FOR OCT 23 - 27 2006 THE DOMINANT FEATURE IN THE 500 HPA FLOW PATTERN FOR THIS TIME PERIOD IS A STRONG TROUGH CENTERED OVER EASTERN CANADA. THE ECMWF/CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEANS DIFFER WITH THE 00Z GFS ENSEMBLE MODEL SOLUTIONS ON THE POSITION AND ORIENTATION OF THIS FEATURE. THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEANS HAVE A CLOSED 500 HPA LOW OVER JAMES BAY AND A NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH AXIS. THE EARLIER GFS ENSEMBLE MEANS DO NOT DEPICT A CLOSED LOW AND THE TROUGH AXIS IS POSITIVELY TILTED. THE 06Z GFS ENSEMBLE SOLUTION IS MORE ANALOGOUS TO THE ECMWF SOLUTION. WHILE THE ENSEMBLE MEANS MAY DIFFER SOMEWHAT IN THEIR DEPICTION OF THE TROUGH... ALL MODELS POINT TO STRONG NEGATIVE HEIGHT/TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES OVER THE EASTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE CONUS. THE 500 HPA RIDGE THAT WAS PRESENT IN THE GFS SOLUTIONS OVER THE WESTERN CONUS ON YESTERDAY'S RUNS IS NOW PLACED WELL OFF OF THE PACIFIC COAST. FOR THE CONUS WEST OF THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS... THE ECMWF AND GFS ENSEMBLE MODELS ALL HAVE CYCLONIC FLOW PRESENT AT 500 HPA... PRODUCING NEGATIVE HEIGHT/TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES. HOWEVER... THE CANADIAN MODEL AND THE OPERATIONAL MODEL RUNS HAVE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW OVER THE WEST COAST... WITH ASSOCIATED POSITIVE HEIGHT/TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST WILL CONTINUE TO FAVOR THE ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLUTION DUE TO THE STRONG RECENT PERFORMANCE OF THIS MODEL AND STRONG RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY. AS FOR PRECIPITATION... THIS PATTERN FAVORS WET CONDITIONS OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN US... THE GREAT PLAINS AND CENTRAL ROCKIES... AND THE GREAT LAKES REGION. DRY CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY PREVAIL OVER THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC AND THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THE GFS AND THE ECMWF ENSEMBLE MODELS POSITION A STRONG 500 HPA LOW OFF OF THE ALASKAN COAST... CAUSING WARM... WET CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL FOR THE ENTIRE STATE. TODAYS OFFICIAL 500-HPA BLEND CONSISTS OF 5 PERCENT OF TODAY'S OPERATIONAL 6Z GFS CENTERED ON DAY 8...5 PERCENT OF TODAY'S OPERATIONAL ECMWF CENTERED ON DAY 7...20 PERCENT OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8...10 PERCENT OF TODAY'S GFS SUPERENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8...20 PERCENT OF TODAY'S CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8...AND 40 PERCENT OF TODAY'S EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 7. MODEL(S) OF THE DAY: ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD IS AVERAGE... 3 ON A SCALE OF 1 TO 5 DUE TO FAIR AGREEMENT AMONG THE MODELS AND FORECAST TOOLS. THE 6-10 DAY TEMPERATURE PROG IS BASED ON THE KLEIN... NEURAL NET... AND ANALOG SPECIFICATIONS FROM THE OFFICIAL BLENDED HEIGHTS... THE CPC AUTO FORECAST... AND UNCALIBRATED AND CALIBRATED 2-METER TEMPERATURES FROM THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN. THE 6-10 DAY PRECIPITATION PROG IS BASED ON THE CPC AUTO FORECAST... ANALOG AND NEURAL NET SPECIFICATIONS FROM THE OFFICIAL BLENDED HEIGHTS AND COMPONENT MODELS... AND THE CALIBRATED PRECIPITATION FROM THE OPERATIONAL 6Z GFS AND 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN. 8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR OCT 25 - 31 2006: FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD... THE STRONG 500 HPA TROUGH PRESENT OVER EASTERN CANADA WILL PROGRESS FURTHER TO THE EAST. THE GFS AND CANADIAN ENSEMBLES SHOW THE TROUGH AXIS TO BE LOCATED OVER EASTERN QUEBEC/NEWFOUNDLAND. THIS TROUGH PRODUCES MODERATELY STRONG NEGATIVE HEIGHT/TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES OVER MOST OF THE CONUS EAST OF THE ROCKIES. FROM THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS WEST TO THE PACIFIC COAST... THE HEIGHT FIELDS FROM THE ENSEMBLES DIFFER SUBSTANTIALLY FROM THE OPERATIONAL MODEL RUNS. THE GFS OPERATIONAL RUNS DEPICT A STRONG RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS... WHILE THE GFS ENSEMBLES SHOW A SLIGHTLY CYCLONIC FLOW WITH WEAK NEGATIVE ANOMALIES OVER THE SAME AREA. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST WILL FAVOR THE 06Z GFS ENSEMBLE SOLUTION... BUT WILL INCLUDE SOME ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES OVER THE WEST COAST. BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND MOST OF THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL US. ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED IN THE GREAT BASIN AND THE IMMEDIATE GREAT LAKES REGION. THE TROUGH AXIS THAT WAS OFF OF THE ALASKAN COAST WILL MOVE TO A POSITION OVER WESTERN ALASKA. POSITIVE HEIGHT/TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES ARE FORECAST FOR MUCH OF ALASKA WITH THE EXCEPTION OF NEAR NORMAL HEIGHTS OVER THE PANHANDLE. WET CONDITIONS ARE FAVORED OVER THIS SAME AREA. THE OFFICIAL 8-14 DAY HEIGHT PROG CONSISTS OF 20 PERCENT OF TODAY'S OPERATIONAL 6Z GFS CENTERED ON DAY 11...30 PERCENT OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11...20 PERCENT OF TODAY'S GFS SUPERENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11...AND 30 PERCENT OF TODAY'S CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11. FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD IS AVERAGE TODAY... 3 ON A SCALE OF 1 TO 5 DUE TO FAIR AGREEMENT AMONG THE MODELS AND FORECAST TOOLS. THE 8-14 DAY TEMPERATURE PROG IS BASED ON THE CPC AUTO FORECAST... KLEIN... NEURAL NET... ANALOG SPECIFICATIONS FROM THE OFFICIAL BLENDED HEIGHTS... AND UNCALIBRATED AND CALIBRATED 2-METER TEMPERATURES FROM THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN. THE CDC CALIBRATED FORECAST WAS NOT AVAILABLE. THE 8-14 DAY PRECIPITATION PROG IS BASED ON THE CPC AUTO FORECAST... THE CPC CALIBRATED PRECIPITATION PERCENTAGES FROM THE GFS ENSEMBLES... NEURAL NET AND ANALOG SPECIFICATIONS FROM THE OFFICIAL FORECAST AND THE MODELS... AND THE CALIBRATED PRECIPITATION FROM THE OPERATIONAL 6Z GFS AND 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN. THE CDC CALIBRATED PRECIPITATION FORECAST WAS NOT AVAILABLE. FORECASTER: ARMSTRONG NOTES: OPERATIONAL CHANGE: AS OF JULY 5 2005 SHADED MAPS HAVE REPLACED THE CONTOUR-ONLY MAPS ON THE CPC WEB SITE. THE CONTOURED MAPS ARE STILL AVAILABLE AT THEIR CURRENT FILE NAMES - SO DIRECT-LINKED USERS ARE NOT AFFECTED. AWIPS GRAPHICS ARE ALSO NOT AFFECTED BY THIS CHANGE. AUTOMATED FORECASTS ARE ISSUED ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. OTHERWISE - FORECASTS INCORPORATE FORECASTER INPUT. THE NOTATION FOR THE CATEGORICAL FORECAST INDICATED ON THE MAPS IS THE SAME AS THAT IN THE TABLES: A-ABOVE N-NEAR NORMAL B-BELOW IN THE SOUTHWEST AND OTHER CLIMATOLOGICALLY DRY REGIONS - THERE WILL BE A GREATER THAN 33.3% CHANCE OF NO PRECIPITATION AND OCCASIONALLY EVEN A NORMAL (I.E. MEDIAN) VALUE OF ZERO - ESPECIALLY DURING THE DRY SEASONS. IN SUCH CASES A FORECAST OF NEAR NORMAL IS EFFECTIVELY A FORECAST OF LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION. THE NARRATIVE DESCRIPTION OF THE FORECAST PATTERNS FOR TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION FOR BOTH THE 6-10 OR 8-14 DAY PERIODS HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED. THE STATE TABLES FOR BOTH THE 6-10 AND 8-14 DAY PERIODS ARE NOW CONTAINED IN THIS MESSAGE...AVAILABLE AS PMDMRD ON AWIPS. THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER USES 1971-2000 BASE PERIOD MEANS FOR TEMPERATURE...PRECIPITATION...AND 500-HPA HEIGHTS AS REFERENCE IN THE CLIMATE OUTLOOKS. THE NEXT SET OF LONG-LEAD MONTHLY AND SEASONAL OUTLOOKS WILL BE RELEASED ON OCTOBER 19. NEW NOTE EFFECTIVE MAR 16 2004: THE GLOSSARY FORMERLY FOUND AT THIS LOCATION WILL NO LONGER BE TRANSMITTED AS PART OF THIS MESSAGE. IF YOU WISH TO SEE THE DEFINITIONS OF TERMS USED IN THESE MESSAGES... PLEASE GO TO THE CPC WEB PAGE AT (USE LOWER CASE) HTTP://WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV AND FOLLOW THE APPROPRIATE LINKS. ANALOGS TO THE 5 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 3 DAYS AGO (D-3) FOR THE REGION FROM 20N to 70N LATITUDE AND 175E to 60W LONGITUDE INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES: 19881026 - 19971022 - 19951029 - 19660930 - 19761021 ANALOGS TO THE 7 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 4 DAYS AGO (D-4) FOR THE REGION FROM 20N to 70N LATITUDE AND 175E to 60W LONGITUDE INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES: 19951029 - 19761020 - 19881026 - 19661001 - 19971022 6 to 10 day Outlook Table OUTLOOK FOR OCT 23 - 27, 2006 STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN WASHINGTON N B OREGON N B NRN CALIF A B SRN CALIF N N IDAHO B B NEVADA N B W MONTANA B B E MONTANA B N WYOMING B N UTAH N N ARIZONA N N COLORADO B A NEW MEXICO N A N DAKOTA B N S DAKOTA B A NEBRASKA B A KANSAS B A OKLAHOMA B A N TEXAS B A S TEXAS N N W TEXAS B A MINNESOTA B N IOWA B N MISSOURI B N ARKANSAS B A LOUISIANA B A WISCONSIN B N ILLINOIS B N MISSISSIPPI B A MICHIGAN B A INDIANA B B OHIO B B KENTUCKY B B TENNESSEE B N ALABAMA B A NEW YORK B N VERMONT B N NEW HAMP B N MAINE B N MASS B N CONN B N RHODE IS B N PENN B B NEW JERSEY B B W VIRGINIA B N MARYLAND B N DELAWARE B N VIRGINIA B N N CAROLINA B N S CAROLINA B N GEORGIA B N FL PNHDL B N FL PENIN N N AK N SLOPE A N AK ALEUTIAN A A AK WESTERN A A AK INT BSN A A AK S INT A A AK SO COAST A A AK PNHDL N N 8 to 14 day Outlook Table OUTLOOK FOR OCT 25 - 31, 2006 STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN WASHINGTON A B OREGON A B NRN CALIF A N SRN CALIF N A IDAHO N B NEVADA N B W MONTANA N B E MONTANA N B WYOMING N B UTAH N N ARIZONA N A COLORADO N N NEW MEXICO N A N DAKOTA B N S DAKOTA B N NEBRASKA B N KANSAS B N OKLAHOMA B N N TEXAS B N S TEXAS N N W TEXAS N A MINNESOTA B B IOWA B B MISSOURI B B ARKANSAS B N LOUISIANA B N WISCONSIN B N ILLINOIS B B MISSISSIPPI B N MICHIGAN B A INDIANA B N OHIO B N KENTUCKY B B TENNESSEE B B ALABAMA B B NEW YORK B N VERMONT B B NEW HAMP B B MAINE B B MASS B B CONN B B RHODE IS B B PENN B B NEW JERSEY B B W VIRGINIA B B MARYLAND B B DELAWARE B B VIRGINIA B B N CAROLINA B B S CAROLINA B B GEORGIA B B FL PNHDL B N FL PENIN N N AK N SLOPE A A AK ALEUTIAN A A AK WESTERN A A AK INT BSN A A AK S INT A N AK SO COAST A N AK PNHDL N N LEGEND TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN A - ABOVE N - NEAR NORMAL A - ABOVE N - NEAR MEDIAN B - BELOW B - BELOW THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS PMDMRD. $$