PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSIONS FOR 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD 300 PM EDT TUE OCT 10 2006 6-10 DAY OUTLOOK VALID FOR OCT 16 - 20 2006 TODAYS ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLUTIONS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE MAIN FEATURES OF THE MEAN 500-HPA HEIGHT PATTERN EXPECTED FOR THE 6 TO 10 DAY PERIOD OVER NORTH AMERICA. A VERY STRONG CLOSED-OFF TROUGH IS FORECAST TO BE CENTERED OVER HUDSON BAY. A BROAD CYCLONIC JETSTREAM IS FORECAST SOUTH OF THE STRONG HUDSON BAY TROUGH THAT IS EXPECTED TO DOMINATE THE FLOW PATTERN OVER MUCH OF THE CONUS. A SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE IS FORECAST TO BE SUPPRESSED TO OVER THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO. A RIDGE IS FORECAST TO DOMINATE MOST OF ALASKA WHILE A TROUGH IS FORECAST OVER THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS. THE MODELS DIFFER SOMEWHAT ON THE HANDLING OF A TROUGH FORECAST OFFSHORE OF THE WEST COAST WITH THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEANS BEING THE MOST PROGRESIVE WITH THIS FEATURE... THE CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN HOLDS BACK THE MOST SHORTWAVE ENERGY OVER THE SOUTHWEST CONUS... AND THE ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLUTION LYING IN BETWEEN THE GFS AND CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN FORECASTS. 500-HPA HEIGHTS ARE GENERALLY FORECAST TO BE BELOW NORMAL OVER THE NORTH/CENTRAL U.S. AND THE FAR WESTERN ALEUTIANS... NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL OVER THE SOUTHEAST AND SOUTHWEST CONUS AND WELL ABOVE NORMAL OVER MOST OF THE REMAINDER OF ALASKA. TODAYS OPERATIONAL SOLUTIONS ARE GENERALLY IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE ENSEMBLE MEAN FORECASTS THOUGH THE 12Z OPERATIONAL ECMWF IS QUICKER TO RAISE HEIGHTS OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS COMPARED TO ITS ENSEMBLE MEAN. THE MODELS ARE IN GENERAL QUICKER TO RAISE HEIGHTS OVER THE SOUTHWEST COMPARED TO THEIR SOLUTIONS FROM YESTERDAY. THE NAO INDEX WHICH RECENTLY HAS BEEN NEAR ZERO IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN NEAR ZERO FOR THE NEXT TWO WEEKS WHILE THE PNA INDEX WHICH RECENTLY HAS BEEN WEAKLY NEGATIVE IS FORECAST TO BE NEAR ZERO BY DAY 7 AND THEN BECOME WEAKLY NEGATIVE AGAIN THROUGH THE END OF WEEK 2. THE DEEP HUDSON BAY TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED POLAR JETSTREAM SHOULD LEAD TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR MUCH OF THE NORTHWEST TWO THIRDS OF THE CONUS WHILE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED OVER SOUTHERN FLORIDA... SOUTHWEST TEXAS AND THE WESTERN TWO THIRDS OF ALASKA. ABOVE MEDIAN PRECIPITATION IS ANTICIPATED FOR MUCH OF THE SOUTHEASTERN AND NORTHERN TIER OF THE CONUS DUE TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE TROUGH FORECAST TO DOMINATE THE CENTRAL CONUS... AND BELOW NORMAL OVER THE WEST COAST AND EASTERN ALASKA DUE TO THE AMPLIFIED RIDGE FORECAST OVER ALASKA. TODAYS OFFICIAL 500-HPA BLEND CONSISTS OF 5 PERCENT OF TODAY'S OPERATIONAL 0Z GFS CENTERED ON DAY 8...5 PERCENT OF TODAY'S OPERATIONAL 6Z GFS CENTERED ON DAY 8...10 PERCENT OF TODAY'S OPERATIONAL ECMWF CENTERED ON DAY 7...15 PERCENT OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8...15 PERCENT OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8...25 PERCENT OF TODAY'S CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8...AND 25 PERCENT OF TODAY'S EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 7. MODEL(S) OF THE DAY: ECMWF AND CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEANS (TIED) FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD IS ABOVE AVERAGE... 4 ON A SCALE OF 1 TO 5 DUE TO GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG THE MODELS AND FORECAST TOOLS. THE 6-10 DAY TEMPERATURE PROG IS BASED ON THE KLEIN... NEURAL NET... AND ANALOG SPECIFICATIONS FROM THE OFFICIAL BLENDED HEIGHTS... 850-HPA BIAS-CORRECTED TEMPERATURES FROM THE 0Z OPERATIONAL GFS... THE CPC AUTO FORECAST... AND UNCALIBRATED 2-METER TEMPERATURES FROM THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN. THE CDC CALIBRATED FORECAST WAS NOT AVAILABLE. THE 6-10 DAY PRECIPITATION PROG IS BASED ON THE CPC AUTO FORECAST... THE CPC CALIBRATED PRECIPITATION PERCENTAGES FROM THE GFS ENSEMBLES... ANALOG AND NEURAL NET SPECIFICATIONS FROM THE OFFICIAL BLENDED HEIGHTS AND COMPONENT MODELS... AND THE CALIBRATED PRECIPITATION FROM THE OPERATIONAL 6Z GFS AND 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN. THE CDC CALIBRATED FORECAST WAS NOT AVAILABLE. 8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR OCT 18 - 24 2006: FOR WEEK 2 THE GFS SUPERENSEMBLE MEAN AND CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN SHOW VERY LITTLE CHANGE TO THE OVERALL CIRCULATION PATTERN FROM THAT FORECAST FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD. THE 6Z OPERATIONAL GFS IS SIMILAR TO THE ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLUTIONS WHILE THE 0Z OPERATIONAL GFS IS LESS PROGRESSIVE WITH THE RIDGE FORECAST OVER ALASKA AND AS A RESULT DEPICTS LOWER HEIGHTS OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF ALASKA. TODAYS GFS-BASED SOLUTIONS ARE QUICKER TO RAISE HEIGHTS OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS COMPARED TO THE SOLUTIONS FROM YESTERDAY. THE AREA OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FORECAST OVER THE NORTH/CENTRAL CONUS FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD IS EXPECTED TO EXPAND SOUTHEASTWARD DURING THE WEEK 2 PERIOD. OTHERWISE THERE IS LITTLE CHANGE EXPECTED TO THE TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION PATTERNS SPECIFIED FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD DURING WEEK 2. THE OFFICIAL 8-14 DAY HEIGHT PROG CONSISTS OF 5 PERCENT OF TODAY'S OPERATIONAL 0Z GFS CENTERED ON DAY 11...5 PERCENT OF TODAY'S OPERATIONAL 6Z GFS CENTERED ON DAY 11...20 PERCENT OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11...20 PERCENT OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11...20 PERCENT OF TODAY'S GFS SUPERENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11...AND 30 PERCENT OF TODAY'S CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11. FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD IS ABOVE AVERAGE TODAY... 4 ON A SCALE OF 1 TO 5 DUE TO RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG THE MODELS AND FORECAST TOOLS. THE 8-14 DAY TEMPERATURE PROG IS BASED ON THE CPC AUTO FORECAST... KLEIN... NEURAL NET... AND ANALOG SPECIFICATIONS FROM THE OFFICIAL BLENDED HEIGHTS... BIAS-CORRECTED 850-HPA TEMPEARTURES FROM THE 0Z OPERATIONAL GFS... AND UNCALIBRATED 2-METER TEMPERATURES FROM THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN. THE CDC CALIBRATED FORECAST WAS NOT AVAILABLE. THE 8-14 DAY PRECIPITATION PROG IS BASED ON THE CPC AUTO FORECAST... THE CPC CALIBRATED PRECIPITATION PERCENTAGES FROM THE GFS ENSEMBLES... NEURAL NET AND ANALOG SPECIFICATIONS FROM THE OFFICIAL FORECAST AND THE MODELS... AND THE CALIBRATED PRECIPITATION FROM THE OPERATIONAL 6Z GFS AND 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN. THE CDC CALIBRATED PRECIPITATION FORECAST WAS NOT AVAILABLE. FORECASTER: NOTES: OPERATIONAL CHANGE: AS OF JULY 5 2005 SHADED MAPS HAVE REPLACED THE CONTOUR-ONLY MAPS ON THE CPC WEB SITE. THE CONTOURED MAPS ARE STILL AVAILABLE AT THEIR CURRENT FILE NAMES - SO DIRECT-LINKED USERS ARE NOT AFFECTED. AWIPS GRAPHICS ARE ALSO NOT AFFECTED BY THIS CHANGE. AUTOMATED FORECASTS ARE ISSUED ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. OTHERWISE - FORECASTS INCORPORATE FORECASTER INPUT. THE NOTATION FOR THE CATEGORICAL FORECAST INDICATED ON THE MAPS IS THE SAME AS THAT IN THE TABLES: A-ABOVE N-NEAR NORMAL B-BELOW IN THE SOUTHWEST AND OTHER CLIMATOLOGICALLY DRY REGIONS - THERE WILL BE A GREATER THAN 33.3% CHANCE OF NO PRECIPITATION AND OCCASIONALLY EVEN A NORMAL (I.E. MEDIAN) VALUE OF ZERO - ESPECIALLY DURING THE DRY SEASONS. IN SUCH CASES A FORECAST OF NEAR NORMAL IS EFFECTIVELY A FORECAST OF LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION. THE NARRATIVE DESCRIPTION OF THE FORECAST PATTERNS FOR TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION FOR BOTH THE 6-10 OR 8-14 DAY PERIODS HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED. THE STATE TABLES FOR BOTH THE 6-10 AND 8-14 DAY PERIODS ARE NOW CONTAINED IN THIS MESSAGE...AVAILABLE AS PMDMRD ON AWIPS. THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER USES 1971-2000 BASE PERIOD MEANS FOR TEMPERATURE...PRECIPITATION...AND 500-HPA HEIGHTS AS REFERENCE IN THE CLIMATE OUTLOOKS. THE NEXT SET OF LONG-LEAD MONTHLY AND SEASONAL OUTLOOKS WILL BE RELEASED ON OCTOBER 19. NEW NOTE EFFECTIVE MAR 16 2004: THE GLOSSARY FORMERLY FOUND AT THIS LOCATION WILL NO LONGER BE TRANSMITTED AS PART OF THIS MESSAGE. IF YOU WISH TO SEE THE DEFINITIONS OF TERMS USED IN THESE MESSAGES... PLEASE GO TO THE CPC WEB PAGE AT (USE LOWER CASE) HTTP://WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV AND FOLLOW THE APPROPRIATE LINKS. ANALOGS TO THE 5 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 3 DAYS AGO (D-3) FOR THE REGION FROM 20N to 70N LATITUDE AND 175E to 60W LONGITUDE INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES: 19811015 - 19531023 - 19590930 - 19650920 - 19721012 ANALOGS TO THE 7 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 4 DAYS AGO (D-4) FOR THE REGION FROM 20N to 70N LATITUDE AND 175E to 60W LONGITUDE INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES: 19811014 - 19531022 - 19590930 - 19650919 - 19721012 6 to 10 day Outlook Table OUTLOOK FOR OCT 16 - 20, 2006 STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN WASHINGTON B B OREGON N B NRN CALIF N B SRN CALIF N N IDAHO B N NEVADA N N W MONTANA B N E MONTANA B N WYOMING B N UTAH B N ARIZONA N N COLORADO B N NEW MEXICO B N N DAKOTA B A S DAKOTA B N NEBRASKA B N KANSAS B N OKLAHOMA B N N TEXAS N N S TEXAS N N W TEXAS B N MINNESOTA B A IOWA B N MISSOURI B N ARKANSAS B A LOUISIANA N A WISCONSIN B A ILLINOIS B N MISSISSIPPI N A MICHIGAN B A INDIANA B N OHIO N N KENTUCKY N A TENNESSEE N A ALABAMA N A NEW YORK N A VERMONT N A NEW HAMP N A MAINE A A MASS A A CONN A N RHODE IS A N PENN N N NEW JERSEY N N W VIRGINIA N A MARYLAND N N DELAWARE N N VIRGINIA N A N CAROLINA N A S CAROLINA N A GEORGIA N A FL PNHDL N A FL PENIN N N AK N SLOPE A B AK ALEUTIAN A N AK WESTERN A N AK INT BSN N B AK S INT N B AK SO COAST A B AK PNHDL B B 8 to 14 day Outlook Table OUTLOOK FOR OCT 18 - 24, 2006 STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN WASHINGTON B B OREGON B B NRN CALIF N B SRN CALIF A N IDAHO B N NEVADA N N W MONTANA B A E MONTANA B A WYOMING B N UTAH N N ARIZONA N N COLORADO B N NEW MEXICO N N N DAKOTA B A S DAKOTA B N NEBRASKA B N KANSAS B N OKLAHOMA B N N TEXAS B N S TEXAS N N W TEXAS N N MINNESOTA B A IOWA B N MISSOURI B N ARKANSAS B A LOUISIANA B A WISCONSIN B A ILLINOIS B N MISSISSIPPI B A MICHIGAN B A INDIANA B N OHIO B N KENTUCKY B N TENNESSEE B A ALABAMA B A NEW YORK B A VERMONT N A NEW HAMP N A MAINE N A MASS N N CONN N N RHODE IS N N PENN B N NEW JERSEY B N W VIRGINIA B N MARYLAND B N DELAWARE B N VIRGINIA B N N CAROLINA B A S CAROLINA B A GEORGIA B A FL PNHDL B A FL PENIN N N AK N SLOPE A B AK ALEUTIAN N N AK WESTERN N B AK INT BSN N B AK S INT B B AK SO COAST B B AK PNHDL B B LEGEND TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN A - ABOVE N - NEAR NORMAL A - ABOVE N - NEAR MEDIAN B - BELOW B - BELOW THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS PMDMRD. $$