PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSIONS FOR 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD 300 PM EDT WED OCT 04 2006 6-10 DAY OUTLOOK VALID FOR OCT 10 - 14 2006 TODAYS NUMERICAL MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN POOR AGREEMENT ON THE FORECAST 6 TO 10 DAY MEAN 500-HPA FLOW PATTERN OVER NORTH AMERICA. TODAYS ENSEMBLE MEANS ARE IN SLIGHTLY BETTER AGREEMENT THAN YESTERDAY... HOWEVER THE SPREAD IN SOLUTIONS AMONG INDIVIDUAL ENSEMBLE MEMBERS INDICATES LOW CONFIDENCE FOR THIS FORECAST. MOST MODELS PREDICT A RIDGE OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA... BUT SHOW LITTLE CONSISTENCY ON THE PLACEMENT OF A DOWNSTREAM TROUGH OVER NORTH AMERICA. MOST DISAGREEMENT CENTERS ON WHETHER THE RIDGE IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC WILL SHARPEN ENOUGH TO FORM A SIGNIFICANT TROUGH IN THE CENTRAL U.S... AS REFLECTED IN THE ECMWF SOLUTIONS OR WHETHER THERE WILL BE A BROAD RIDGE EXTENDING INTO WESTERN CANADA... RESULTING IN MOSTLY ZONAL FLOW WITH ONLY A WEAK TROUGH OVER CENTRAL OR EASTERN NORTH AMERICA... AS SUGGESTED BY MANY OF THE GFS MEMBERS. THE GFS SUPERENSEMBLE MEAN APPEARS TO GIVE THE BEST CONSENSUS FORECAST OF ANY OF THE SOLUTIONS. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS INDICATED IN THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST UNDER THE EXPECTED RIDGE... WHILE CHANCES FOR BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE ENHANCED IN MOST OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CONUS EXCEPT FOR IN THE SOUTHEAST. PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO BE ENHANCED NEAR THE GULF AND ATLANTIC COASTS. THE ALASKAN FORECAST IS ALSO QUITE UNCERTAIN WITH A LARGE SPREAD AMONG THE VARIOUS ENSEMBLES IN THE FLOW PATTERN PREDICTED ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE RIDGE IN THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC OCEAN. THE GFS SOLUTION FAVORS AN ENHANCED STORM TRACK NEAR THE ALASKAN PANHANDLE... RESULTING IN A PREDICTION FOR WET CONDITIONS THERE. TODAYS OFFICIAL 500-HPA BLEND CONSISTS OF 20 PERCENT OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8...60 PERCENT OF TODAY'S GFS SUPERENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8...10 PERCENT OF TODAY'S CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8...AND 10 PERCENT OF TODAY'S EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 7. MODEL(S) OF THE DAY: GFS SUPERENSEMBLE MEAN FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD IS BELOW AVERAGE... 2 ON A SCALE OF 1 TO 5 DUE TO SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES IN THE MEAN FLOW PREDICTED BY THE VARIOUS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS. THE 6-10 DAY TEMPERATURE PROG IS BASED ON THE CPC AUTO FORECAST... AND ANALOG SPECIFICATIONS FROM THE OFFICIAL BLENDED HEIGHTS... WITH SOME CONSIDERATION GIVEN TO KLEIN SPECIFICATIONS. THE CDC CALIBRATED FORECAST WAS UNAVAILABLE TODAY. THE 6-10 DAY PRECIPITATION PROG IS BASED ON THE THE CPC AUTO FORECAST... THE CPC CALIBRATED PRECIPITATION PERCENTAGES FROM THE GFS ENSEMBLES... ANALOG SPECIFICATIONS FROM THE OFFICIAL FORECAST AND COMPONENT MODELS... AND THE EMC CALIBRATED PERCENTAGES. 8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR OCT 12 - 18 2006: THERE IS A VERY LARGE AMOUNT OF SPREAD AMONG THE VARIOUS ENSEMBLE FORECASTS FOR THE MEAN 500-HPA CIRCULATION PATTERN PREDICTED IN THE 8 TO 14 DAY PERIOD. THE SUPER ENSEMBLE MEAN WAS SELECTED AS THE BEST COMPROMISE FORECAST... MOSTLY BECAUSE OF ITS RELATIONSHIP TO THE VARIOUS MODELS IN THE 6 TO 10 DAY PERIOD. THE SOLUTION IS REASONABLY CONSISTENT WITH THE 6 TO 10 DAY PERIOD... AND CONSISTENT WITH YESTERDAYS FORECAST... EXCEPT FOR IN ALASKA. THE ENSEMBLE MEAN SLIGHTLY FAVORS A WEAK TROUGH IN CENTRAL AND EASTERN CANADA... EXTENDING INTO THE EASTERN GULF COAST STATES...WITH MOSTLY ZONAL FLOW OVER THE WEST. THE 500-HPA HEIGHTS OVER THE CONUS ARE QUITE CLOSE TO NORMAL. CONFIDENCE IS VERY LOW... AND THE PROBABILITY ANOMALIES FOR BOTH TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION ARE ONLY MARGINALLY ABOVE CHANCE VALUES... WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED FROM THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES TO THE OHIO VALLEY... AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED IN THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND ALSO ALONG PARTS OF THE EASTERN SEABOARD. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED IN WESTERN ALASKA... REFLECTING THE MAJORITY OF ANALOG FORECASTS THERE. THE OFFICIAL 8-14 DAY HEIGHT PROG CONSISTS OF 30 PERCENT OF TODAY'S OPERATIONAL 0Z GFS CENTERED ON DAY 11...AND 70 PERCENT OF TODAY'S GFS SUPERENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11. FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD IS MUCH BELOW AVERAGE TODAY... 1 ON A SCALE OF 1 TO 5 DUE TO A LARGE AMOUNT OF SPREAD AMONG THE VARIOUS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS. THE 8-14 DAY TEMPERATURE PROG IS BASED ON THE CPC AUTO FORECAST... AND ANALOG SPECIFICATIONS FROM THE OFFICIAL BLENDED HEIGHTS. SOME ADDITIONAL CONSIDERATION WAS GIVEN TO KLEIN SPECIFICATIONS. THE CDC CALIBRATED FORECAST WAS UNAVAILABLE TODAY. THE 8-14 DAY PRECIPITATION PROG IS BASED ON THE CPC AUTO FORECAST... THE CPC AND EMC CALIBRATED PRECIPITATION PERCENTAGES FROM THE GFS ENSEMBLES... AND THE NEURAL NET AND ANALOG SPECIFICATIONS FROM THE OFFICIAL FORECAST AND THE MODELS. FORECASTER: D. UNGER NOTES: OPERATIONAL CHANGE: AS OF JULY 5 2005 SHADED MAPS HAVE REPLACED THE CONTOUR-ONLY MAPS ON THE CPC WEB SITE. THE CONTOURED MAPS ARE STILL AVAILABLE AT THEIR CURRENT FILE NAMES - SO DIRECT-LINKED USERS ARE NOT AFFECTED. AWIPS GRAPHICS ARE ALSO NOT AFFECTED BY THIS CHANGE. AUTOMATED FORECASTS ARE ISSUED ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. OTHERWISE - FORECASTS INCORPORATE FORECASTER INPUT. THE NOTATION FOR THE CATEGORICAL FORECAST INDICATED ON THE MAPS IS THE SAME AS THAT IN THE TABLES: A-ABOVE N-NEAR NORMAL B-BELOW IN THE SOUTHWEST AND OTHER CLIMATOLOGICALLY DRY REGIONS - THERE WILL BE A GREATER THAN 33.3% CHANCE OF NO PRECIPITATION AND OCCASIONALLY EVEN A NORMAL (I.E. MEDIAN) VALUE OF ZERO - ESPECIALLY DURING THE DRY SEASONS. IN SUCH CASES A FORECAST OF NEAR NORMAL IS EFFECTIVELY A FORECAST OF LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION. THE NARRATIVE DESCRIPTION OF THE FORECAST PATTERNS FOR TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION FOR BOTH THE 6-10 OR 8-14 DAY PERIODS HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED. THE STATE TABLES FOR BOTH THE 6-10 AND 8-14 DAY PERIODS ARE NOW CONTAINED IN THIS MESSAGE...AVAILABLE AS PMDMRD ON AWIPS. THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER USES 1971-2000 BASE PERIOD MEANS FOR TEMPERATURE...PRECIPITATION...AND 500-HPA HEIGHTS AS REFERENCE IN THE CLIMATE OUTLOOKS. THE NEXT SET OF LONG-LEAD MONTHLY AND SEASONAL OUTLOOKS WILL BE RELEASED ON OCTOBER 19. NEW NOTE EFFECTIVE MAR 16 2004: THE GLOSSARY FORMERLY FOUND AT THIS LOCATION WILL NO LONGER BE TRANSMITTED AS PART OF THIS MESSAGE. IF YOU WISH TO SEE THE DEFINITIONS OF TERMS USED IN THESE MESSAGES... PLEASE GO TO THE CPC WEB PAGE AT (USE LOWER CASE) HTTP://WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV AND FOLLOW THE APPROPRIATE LINKS. ANALOGS TO THE 5 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 3 DAYS AGO (D-3) FOR THE REGION FROM 20N to 70N LATITUDE AND 175E to 60W LONGITUDE INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES: 19771005 - 19611018 - 19701004 - 19980924 - 19530922 ANALOGS TO THE 7 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 4 DAYS AGO (D-4) FOR THE REGION FROM 20N to 70N LATITUDE AND 175E to 60W LONGITUDE INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES: 19830922 - 19930930 - 19701004 - 19980923 - 19911015 6 to 10 day Outlook Table OUTLOOK FOR OCT 10 - 14, 2006 STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN WASHINGTON A B OREGON A B NRN CALIF A B SRN CALIF N N IDAHO N B NEVADA A B W MONTANA N B E MONTANA N B WYOMING N B UTAH N B ARIZONA B N COLORADO B N NEW MEXICO B A N DAKOTA N B S DAKOTA B B NEBRASKA B B KANSAS B N OKLAHOMA B N N TEXAS B A S TEXAS B A W TEXAS B A MINNESOTA B B IOWA B B MISSOURI B N ARKANSAS B N LOUISIANA N A WISCONSIN B B ILLINOIS B B MISSISSIPPI B A MICHIGAN B B INDIANA B B OHIO B B KENTUCKY B N TENNESSEE B N ALABAMA N A NEW YORK B N VERMONT B N NEW HAMP B N MAINE B N MASS B A CONN B A RHODE IS B A PENN B N NEW JERSEY B A W VIRGINIA B N MARYLAND B A DELAWARE B A VIRGINIA B A N CAROLINA B A S CAROLINA N A GEORGIA N A FL PNHDL A A FL PENIN A N AK N SLOPE B B AK ALEUTIAN N N AK WESTERN B N AK INT BSN B N AK S INT N A AK SO COAST N A AK PNHDL A A 8 to 14 day Outlook Table OUTLOOK FOR OCT 12 - 18, 2006 STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN WASHINGTON A B OREGON A B NRN CALIF A N SRN CALIF N N IDAHO A B NEVADA A B W MONTANA N B E MONTANA N B WYOMING N B UTAH N B ARIZONA N N COLORADO B B NEW MEXICO B N N DAKOTA N B S DAKOTA N B NEBRASKA B B KANSAS B B OKLAHOMA B N N TEXAS B A S TEXAS B N W TEXAS B N MINNESOTA N B IOWA B B MISSOURI B N ARKANSAS B N LOUISIANA B A WISCONSIN N B ILLINOIS B B MISSISSIPPI B A MICHIGAN N N INDIANA B N OHIO N N KENTUCKY B A TENNESSEE B A ALABAMA B A NEW YORK A A VERMONT A A NEW HAMP A A MAINE A A MASS A A CONN A A RHODE IS A A PENN N A NEW JERSEY A A W VIRGINIA N A MARYLAND A A DELAWARE A A VIRGINIA N A N CAROLINA N A S CAROLINA N A GEORGIA B A FL PNHDL N A FL PENIN N A AK N SLOPE N N AK ALEUTIAN A N AK WESTERN N N AK INT BSN N N AK S INT N N AK SO COAST N N AK PNHDL N A LEGEND TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN A - ABOVE N - NEAR NORMAL A - ABOVE N - NEAR MEDIAN B - BELOW B - BELOW THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS PMDMRD. $$