PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSIONS FOR 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD 300 PM EDT THU SEP 28 2006 6-10 DAY OUTLOOK VALID FOR OCT 04 - 08 2006 MOST OF TODAYS NUMERICAL MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE FORECAST 500-HPA FLOW PATTERN. ALL BUT THE CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN AND DAVA SHOW A SOUTHWESTERN TROUGH - EAST-CENTRAL RIDGE PATTERN. THE CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN IS CLOSER TO THE 8-14 DAY FORECAST PATTERNS OF THE PAST TWO DAYS... WITH A MORE AMPLIFIED RIDGE NEAR BRITISH COLUMBIA AND LOWER HEIGHTS OVER EASTERN CANADA AND THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS THAN THOSE DEPICTED BY THE OTHER MODELS. THE MOST SIGNIFICANT NEW DEVELOPMENT IS THAT THE MOST RECENT THREE GFS OPERATIONAL RUNS HAVE A MUCH STRONGER CUTOFF LOW NEAR THE CALIFORNIA COAST THAN ANY MODELS HAVE FORECAST SO FAR. THE HEIGHT PATTERN AS SHOWN BY THE OFFICIAL BLENDED FORECAST DEPICTS WELL-DEFINED TROUGHS OVER THE BERING SEA - ALEUTIAN REGION AND NEAR THE CALIFORNIA COAST... AND A WEAK TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTH FROM NEWFOUNDLAND INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. THIS LATTER FEATURE IS HOWEVER SOMEWHAT STRONGER THAN IT WAS FORECAST IN YESTERDAYS OFFICIAL PROG. THE BLOCKING RIDGE OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC SECTOR THAT EARLIER IN THE WEEK HAD BEEN PREDICTED TO BE CENTERED OVER GREENLAND IS NOW FORECAST TO WEAKEN AND MOVE EASTWARD TO THE GREENLAND SEA... WHILE THE MAIN FEATURE OF INTEREST TO U.S. WEATHER IS A STRONG RIDGE FORECAST OVER THE CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. FORECAST TOOLS BASED ON THIS PATTERN SHOW WARMTH OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN CONUS AND COOL CONDITIONS OVER PARTS OF THE WEST... WITH WET WEATHER OVER THE SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL CONUS AND GENERALLY DRY IN THE EAST AND SOUTH... AS WELL AS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND PRECIPITATION ARE ALSO LIKELY FOR MOST OF ALASKA WITH ABOVE NORMAL HEIGHTS AND A GENERALLY ANOMALOUS SOUTHERLY FLOW OF RELATIVELY MILD MARITIME AIR INTO THE STATE... ALTHOUGH THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE COULD BE DRY UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE RIDGE APPROACHING THE BRITISH COLUMBIA COAST. TODAYS OFFICIAL 500-HPA BLEND CONSISTS OF 10 PERCENT OF TODAY'S OPERATIONAL 0Z GFS CENTERED ON DAY 8...15 PERCENT OF TODAY'S OPERATIONAL 6Z GFS CENTERED ON DAY 8...5 PERCENT OF YESTERDAY'S OPERATIONAL 18Z GFS CENTERED ON DAY 7...20 PERCENT OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8...20 PERCENT OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8...10 PERCENT OF TODAY'S CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8...AND 20 PERCENT OF TODAY'S EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 7. MODEL(S) OF THE DAY: THREE-WAY TIE AMONG THE 0Z AND 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEANS AND THE 12Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN. FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD IS ABOVE AVERAGE... 4 ON A SCALE OF 1 TO 5 DUE TO GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT AND DAY-TO-DAY CONSISTENCY ON A FAIRLY AMPLIFIED PATTERN IN THE VICINITY OF THE CONUS AND REASONABLE CONSISTENCY AMONG THE SPECIFICATION TOOLS. THE 6-10 DAY TEMPERATURE PROG IS BASED ON THE CPC AUTO FORECAST... KLEIN AND ANALOG SPECIFICATIONS FROM THE OFFICIAL BLENDED HEIGHTS... CALIBRATED AND UNCALIBRATED TEMPERATURES FROM THE 0Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN... AND THE CDC CALIBRATED FORECAST. THE 6-10 DAY PRECIPITATION PROG IS BASED ON THE NEURAL NET SPECIFICATION... THE CPC AUTO FORECAST... THE CPC AND EMC CALIBRATED PRECIPITATION PERCENTAGES FROM THE GFS ENSEMBLES... THE CDC CALIBRATED FORECAST... AND ANALOG SPECIFICATIONS FROM THE OFFICIAL FORECAST AND THE MODELS. 8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR OCT 06 - 12 2006: FOR WEEK 2... THERE IS REASONABLY GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT TODAY ON THE FORECAST 500-HPA FLOW PATTERN... AND THE CONSENSUS IS SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY ALTHOUGH THE CIRCULATION APPEARS TO BE FURTHER ALONG IN DEVELOPING A POSITIVE PHASE OF THE PNA PATTERN WITH A TROUGH SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIANS... AN AMPLIFIED RIDGE NEAR THE BRITISH COLUMBIA COAST... AND A DEEPENING TROUGH OVER EASTERN NORTH AMERICA. MOST MODELS AGREE ON DEEPENING BOTH THE ALEUTIAN LOW AND THE DOWNSTREAM RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF ALASKA AND BRITISH COLUMBIA... AND MORE MODELS ARE BEGINNING TO SHOW THE EXPECTED RESPONSE FROM TELECONNECTIONS OF A FULL-LATITUDE TROUGH OVER EASTERN NORTH AMERICA. THE REMNANTS OF THE RIDGE PREDICTED OVER THE CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI VALLEY DURING THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD ARE FORECAST TO WEAKEN AND RETROGRADE TO THE SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS REGION WHILE THE AMPLIFYING RIDGE NEAR THE BRITISH COLUMBIA COAST TAKES OVER. A WEAK RESIDUAL TROUGH IS INDICATED TO CONTINUE NEAR THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST... WHILE THE BLOCKING RIDGE OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC IS FORECAST TO MOVE EASTWARD TOWARDS SCANDINAVIA. PREDICTED MIDDLE TROPOSPHERIC HEIGHT ANOMALIES AND FORECAST TOOLS FOR TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION BASED ON THE PATTERN ARE STILL SOMEWHAT WEAK AND GIVE RATHER UNCERTAIN INDICATIONS IN SOME PARTS OF THE CONUS. MOST OF SOUTHERN ALASKA IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN GENERALLY MILD AND WET. THE OFFICIAL 8-14 DAY HEIGHT PROG CONSISTS OF 5 PERCENT OF TODAY'S OPERATIONAL 0Z GFS CENTERED ON DAY 11...5 PERCENT OF TODAY'S OPERATIONAL 6Z GFS CENTERED ON DAY 11...15 PERCENT OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11...15 PERCENT OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11...15 PERCENT OF YESTERDAY'S 12Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 10...15 PERCENT OF YESTERDAY'S 18Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 10...AND 30 PERCENT OF TODAY'S CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11. FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD IS ABOUT AVERAGE TODAY... 3 ON A SCALE OF 1 TO 5 DUE TO FAIRLY GOOD CONSISTENCY WITH YESTERDAYS PROGS AND MODEL AGREEMENT OFFSET BY RATHER WEAK AND SOMETIMES VARYING INDICATIONS FROM MANY OF THE SPECIFICATION TOOLS. THE 8-14 DAY TEMPERATURE PROG IS BASED ON THE CPC AUTO FORECAST... KLEIN... NEURAL NET AND ANALOG SPECIFICATIONS FROM THE OFFICIAL BLENDED HEIGHTS... AND THE CDC CALIBRATED FORECAST. THE 8-14 DAY PRECIPITATION PROG IS BASED ON THE CPC AUTO FORECAST... THE CPC AND EMC CALIBRATED PRECIPITATION PERCENTAGES FROM THE GFS ENSEMBLES... THE CDC CALIBRATED FORECAST... AND ANALOG SPECIFICATIONS FROM THE OFFICIAL FORECAST AND THE MODELS. FORECASTER: A. J. WAGNER NOTES: OPERATIONAL CHANGE: AS OF JULY 5 2005 SHADED MAPS HAVE REPLACED THE CONTOUR-ONLY MAPS ON THE CPC WEB SITE. THE CONTOURED MAPS ARE STILL AVAILABLE AT THEIR CURRENT FILE NAMES - SO DIRECT-LINKED USERS ARE NOT AFFECTED. AWIPS GRAPHICS ARE ALSO NOT AFFECTED BY THIS CHANGE. AUTOMATED FORECASTS ARE ISSUED ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. OTHERWISE - FORECASTS INCORPORATE FORECASTER INPUT. THE NOTATION FOR THE CATEGORICAL FORECAST INDICATED ON THE MAPS IS THE SAME AS THAT IN THE TABLES: A-ABOVE N-NEAR NORMAL B-BELOW IN THE SOUTHWEST AND OTHER CLIMATOLOGICALLY DRY REGIONS - THERE WILL BE A GREATER THAN 33.3% CHANCE OF NO PRECIPITATION AND OCCASIONALLY EVEN A NORMAL (I.E. MEDIAN) VALUE OF ZERO - ESPECIALLY DURING THE DRY SEASONS. IN SUCH CASES A FORECAST OF NEAR NORMAL IS EFFECTIVELY A FORECAST OF LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION. THE NARRATIVE DESCRIPTION OF THE FORECAST PATTERNS FOR TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION FOR BOTH THE 6-10 OR 8-14 DAY PERIODS HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED. THE STATE TABLES FOR BOTH THE 6-10 AND 8-14 DAY PERIODS ARE NOW CONTAINED IN THIS MESSAGE...AVAILABLE AS PMDMRD ON AWIPS. THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER USES 1971-2000 BASE PERIOD MEANS FOR TEMPERATURE...PRECIPITATION...AND 500-HPA HEIGHTS AS REFERENCE IN THE CLIMATE OUTLOOKS. THE NEXT SET OF LONG-LEAD MONTHLY AND SEASONAL OUTLOOKS WILL BE RELEASED ON OCTOBER 19. AN UPDATED MONTHLY FORECAST FOR OCTOBER WILL ALSO BE ISSUED ON SEPTEMBER 30. NEW NOTE EFFECTIVE MAR 16 2004: THE GLOSSARY FORMERLY FOUND AT THIS LOCATION WILL NO LONGER BE TRANSMITTED AS PART OF THIS MESSAGE. IF YOU WISH TO SEE THE DEFINITIONS OF TERMS USED IN THESE MESSAGES... PLEASE GO TO THE CPC WEB PAGE AT (USE LOWER CASE) HTTP://WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV AND FOLLOW THE APPROPRIATE LINKS. ANALOGS TO THE 5 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 3 DAYS AGO (D-3) FOR THE REGION FROM 20N to 70N LATITUDE AND 175E to 60W LONGITUDE INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES: 19791011 - 19871010 - 19660929 - 19910929 - 19711010 ANALOGS TO THE 7 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 4 DAYS AGO (D-4) FOR THE REGION FROM 20N to 70N LATITUDE AND 175E to 60W LONGITUDE INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES: 19791011 - 19660929 - 19871010 - 19730913 - 19931010 6 to 10 day Outlook Table OUTLOOK FOR OCT 04 - 08, 2006 STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN WASHINGTON B B OREGON N B NRN CALIF B B SRN CALIF B N IDAHO B B NEVADA B N W MONTANA B N E MONTANA N A WYOMING N A UTAH N A ARIZONA N A COLORADO N A NEW MEXICO A A N DAKOTA N N S DAKOTA N A NEBRASKA A A KANSAS A A OKLAHOMA A A N TEXAS A N S TEXAS A B W TEXAS A N MINNESOTA A N IOWA A A MISSOURI A A ARKANSAS A N LOUISIANA A B WISCONSIN A A ILLINOIS A A MISSISSIPPI A B MICHIGAN A A INDIANA A N OHIO A N KENTUCKY A N TENNESSEE A B ALABAMA A B NEW YORK N N VERMONT N N NEW HAMP N N MAINE N N MASS N B CONN N B RHODE IS N B PENN N B NEW JERSEY N B W VIRGINIA A B MARYLAND N B DELAWARE N B VIRGINIA N B N CAROLINA N B S CAROLINA A B GEORGIA A B FL PNHDL A B FL PENIN A B AK N SLOPE A N AK ALEUTIAN N A AK WESTERN A A AK INT BSN A N AK S INT A A AK SO COAST A A AK PNHDL A N 8 to 14 day Outlook Table OUTLOOK FOR OCT 06 - 12, 2006 STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN WASHINGTON A B OREGON N B NRN CALIF N B SRN CALIF B N IDAHO N B NEVADA N B W MONTANA N N E MONTANA N N WYOMING N N UTAH N N ARIZONA N A COLORADO N A NEW MEXICO N A N DAKOTA B N S DAKOTA N A NEBRASKA N A KANSAS N A OKLAHOMA A N N TEXAS A N S TEXAS A B W TEXAS A N MINNESOTA B A IOWA N A MISSOURI N N ARKANSAS A N LOUISIANA A B WISCONSIN B A ILLINOIS N N MISSISSIPPI A B MICHIGAN B A INDIANA N N OHIO N N KENTUCKY N N TENNESSEE N N ALABAMA A B NEW YORK B N VERMONT B N NEW HAMP B N MAINE B N MASS B N CONN B N RHODE IS B N PENN B N NEW JERSEY B N W VIRGINIA N N MARYLAND B N DELAWARE B N VIRGINIA B N N CAROLINA N N S CAROLINA N B GEORGIA A B FL PNHDL A B FL PENIN A B AK N SLOPE A A AK ALEUTIAN A A AK WESTERN A A AK INT BSN A A AK S INT A A AK SO COAST A A AK PNHDL A N LEGEND TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN A - ABOVE N - NEAR NORMAL A - ABOVE N - NEAR MEDIAN B - BELOW B - BELOW THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS PMDMRD. $$