PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSIONS FOR 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD 300 PM EDT WED SEP 27 2006 6-10 DAY OUTLOOK VALID FOR OCT 03 - 07 2006 TODAYS NUMERICAL MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE FORECAST 500-HPA FLOW PATTERN. THE TRANSIITION FROM A WESTERN RIDGE - EASTERN TROUGH PATTERN TO A WESTERN TROUGH - EASTERN RIDGE PATTERN IS COMPLETED PRIOR TO THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD. IN GENERAL... THE ECMWF PRODUCTS - ESPECIALLY THE HIGH RESOLUTION EXTENDED OPERATIONAL RUNS - HAVE A MORE AMPLFIED RIDGE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AND A DEEPER TROUGH NEAR THE WEST COAST THAN THE GFS PRODUCTS... AND AS USUAL THE OPERATIONAL MODELS ARE MORE AMPLFIED THAN THE ENSEMBLE MEANS. ALL HAVE VERY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE PHASE OF THE PATTERN... WITH ONLY THE CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN SHOWING THE RIDGE A LITTLE FURTHER TO THE EAST THAN THE OTHER MODELS. THE HEIGHT PATTERN AS SHOWN BY THE OFFICIAL BLENDED FORECAST DEPICT WELL-DEFINED TROUGHS OVER THE BERING SEA - ALEUTIAN REGION... JUST INLAND FROM THE CALIFORNIA COAST... AND A WEAK TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTH FROM NEWFOUNDLAND. THE BLOCKING RIDGE OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC SECTOR CENTERED OVER GREENLAND IS PREDICTED TO WEAKEN AND BEGIN PROGRESSING TODAY... WHILE THE MAIN FEATURE OF INTEREST TO U.S. WEATHER IS A STRONG RIDGE FORECAST OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES. FORECAST TOOLS BASED ON THIS PATTERN SHOW WARMTH OVER THE MIDDLE OF THE CONUS AND COOL CONDITIONS OVER MOST OF THE WEST... WITH WET WEATHER OVER THE WEST AND CENTRAL CONUS AND GENERALLY DRY IN THE EAST AND SOUTH. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND PRECIPITATION ARE ALSO LIKELY FOR MOST OF ALASKA WITH ABOVE NORMAL HEIGHTS AND A GENERALLY ANOMALOUS SOUTHERLY FLOW OF RELATIVELY MILD MARITIME AIR INTO THE STATE... ALTHOUGH THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE COULD BE DRY UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A WEAK RIDGE WITH ANOMALOUS DOWNSLOPE WIND COMPONENTS. TODAYS OFFICIAL 500-HPA BLEND CONSISTS OF 15 PERCENT OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8...20 PERCENT OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8...30 PERCENT OF TODAY'S GFS SUPERENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8...15 PERCENT OF TODAY'S CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8...AND 20 PERCENT OF TODAY'S EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 7. MODEL(S) OF THE DAY: GFS SUPERENSEMBLE MEAN FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD IS ABOVE AVERAGE... 4 ON A SCALE OF 1 TO 5 DUE TO GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT ON A FAIRLY AMPLFIED PATTERN IN THE VICINITY OF THE CONUS AND REASONABLE CONSISTENCY AMONG THE SPECIFICATION TOOLS. THE 6-10 DAY TEMPERATURE PROG IS BASED ON THE CPC AUTO FORECAST... KLEIN AND ANALOG SPECIFICATIONS FROM THE OFFICIAL BLENDED HEIGHTS... CALIBRATED AND UNCALIBRATED TEMPERATURES FROM THE 0Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN... AND THE CDC CALIBRATED FORECAST. THE 6-10 DAY PRECIPITATION PROG IS BASED ON THE NEURAL NET SPECIFICATION... THE CPC AUTO FORECAST... THE CPC AND EMC CALIBRATED PRECIPITATION PERCENTAGES FROM THE GFS ENSEMBLES... THE CDC CALIBRATED FORECAST... AND ANALOG SPECIFICATIONS FROM THE OFFICAL FORECAST AND THE MODELS. 8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR OCT 05 - 11 2006: FOR WEEK 2... THERE IS SOMEWHAT BETTER MODEL AGREEMENT TODAY ON THE FORECAST 500-HPA FLOW PATTERN... AND THE CONSENEUS IS SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY. MOST MODELS DEEPEN BOTH THE ALEUTIAN LOW AND THE DOWNSTREAM RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF ALASKA AND BRITISH COLUMBIA. A BUILDING RIDGE IN THIS REGION FAVORS THE REDEVELOPMENT OF A TROUGH SOMEWHERE OVER EASTERN NORTH AMERICA... AND MOST MODELS AMPLIFY A FULL-LATITUDE TROUGH OVER EASTERN CANADA AND THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. THE RIDGE PREDICTED OVER THE OHIO VALLEY-GREAT LAKES AREA DURING THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN AND RETROGRADE TO THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND GREAT PLAINS REGION. A WEAK RESIDUAL TROUGH IS INDICATED TO CONTINUE NEAR THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST... WHILE THE BLOCKING RIDGE OVER GREENLAND IS FORECAST TO MOVE EASTWARD TOWARDS SCANDINAVIA AND WEAKEN. PREDICTED MIDDLE TROPOSPHERIC HEIGHT ANOMALIES AND FORECAST TOOLS FOR TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION BASED ON THE PATTERN ARE VERY WEAK AND GIVE RATHER UNCERTAIN INDICATIONS IN MOST AREAS. MOST OF SOUTHERN ALASKA IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN GENERALLY MILD AND WET. THE OFFICIAL 8-14 DAY HEIGHT PROG CONSISTS OF 20 PERCENT OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11...20 PERCENT OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11...15 PERCENT OF YESTERDAY'S 12Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 10...15 PERCENT OF YESTERDAY'S 18Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 10...AND 30 PERCENT OF TODAY'S GFS SUPERENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11. FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD IS ABOUT AVERAGE TODAY... 3 ON A SCALE OF 1 TO 5 DUE TO CONSISTENCY WITH YESTERDAYS PROGS OFFSET BY RATHER WEAK AND SOMETIMES VARYING INDICATIONS FROM MANY OF THE SPECIFICATION TOOLS. THE 8-14 DAY TEMPERATURE PROG IS BASED ON THE CPC AUTO FORECAST... KLEIN... NEURAL NET AND ANALOG SPECIFICATIONS FROM THE OFFICIAL BLENDED HEIGHTS... AND THE CDC CALIBRATED FORECAST. THE 8-14 DAY PRECIPITATION PROG IS BASED ON THE CPC AUTO FORECAST... THE CPC AND EMC CALIBRATED PRECIPITATION PERCENTAGES FROM THE GFS ENSEMBLES... THE CDC CALIBRATED FORECAST... AND ANALOG SPECIFICATIONS FROM THE OFFICAL FORECAST AND THE MODELS. FORECASTER: A. J. WAGNER NOTES: OPERATIONAL CHANGE: AS OF JULY 5 2005 SHADED MAPS HAVE REPLACED THE CONTOUR-ONLY MAPS ON THE CPC WEB SITE. THE CONTOURED MAPS ARE STILL AVAILABLE AT THEIR CURRENT FILE NAMES - SO DIRECT-LINKED USERS ARE NOT AFFECTED. AWIPS GRAPHICS ARE ALSO NOT AFFECTED BY THIS CHANGE. AUTOMATED FORECASTS ARE ISSUED ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. OTHERWISE - FORECASTS INCORPORATE FORECASTER INPUT. THE NOTATION FOR THE CATEGORICAL FORECAST INDICATED ON THE MAPS IS THE SAME AS THAT IN THE TABLES: A-ABOVE N-NEAR NORMAL B-BELOW IN THE SOUTHWEST AND OTHER CLIMATOLOGICALLY DRY REGIONS - THERE WILL BE A GREATER THAN 33.3% CHANCE OF NO PRECIPITATION AND OCCASIONALLY EVEN A NORMAL (I.E. MEDIAN) VALUE OF ZERO - ESPECIALLY DURING THE DRY SEASONS. IN SUCH CASES A FORECAST OF NEAR NORMAL IS EFFECTIVELY A FORECAST OF LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION. THE NARRATIVE DESCRIPTION OF THE FORECAST PATTERNS FOR TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION FOR BOTH THE 6-10 OR 8-14 DAY PERIODS HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED. THE STATE TABLES FOR BOTH THE 6-10 AND 8-14 DAY PERIODS ARE NOW CONTAINED IN THIS MESSAGE...AVAILABLE AS PMDMRD ON AWIPS. THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER USES 1971-2000 BASE PERIOD MEANS FOR TEMPERATURE...PRECIPITATION...AND 500-HPA HEIGHTS AS REFERENCE IN THE CLIMATE OUTLOOKS. THE NEXT SET OF LONG-LEAD MONTHLY AND SEASONAL OUTLOOKS WILL BE RELEASED ON OCTOBER 19. AN UPDATED MONTHLY FORECAST FOR OCTOBER WILL ALSO BE ISSUED ON SEPTEMBER 30. NEW NOTE EFFECTIVE MAR 16 2004: THE GLOSSARY FORMERLY FOUND AT THIS LOCATION WILL NO LONGER BE TRANSMITTED AS PART OF THIS MESSAGE. IF YOU WISH TO SEE THE DEFINITIONS OF TERMS USED IN THESE MESSAGES... PLEASE GO TO THE CPC WEB PAGE AT (USE LOWER CASE) HTTP://WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV AND FOLLOW THE APPROPRIATE LINKS. ANALOGS TO THE 5 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 3 DAYS AGO (D-3) FOR THE REGION FROM 20N to 70N LATITUDE AND 175E to 60W LONGITUDE INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES: 19791011 - 19660929 - 19871011 - 19730912 - 19931010 ANALOGS TO THE 7 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 4 DAYS AGO (D-4) FOR THE REGION FROM 20N to 70N LATITUDE AND 175E to 60W LONGITUDE INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES: 19660930 - 19791010 - 19871010 - 19980921 - 19730912 6 to 10 day Outlook Table OUTLOOK FOR OCT 03 - 07, 2006 STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN WASHINGTON B B OREGON N B NRN CALIF B N SRN CALIF B N IDAHO B N NEVADA B A W MONTANA N N E MONTANA N A WYOMING N A UTAH N A ARIZONA N N COLORADO N A NEW MEXICO A A N DAKOTA N A S DAKOTA A A NEBRASKA A A KANSAS A A OKLAHOMA A A N TEXAS A N S TEXAS A B W TEXAS A N MINNESOTA A A IOWA A A MISSOURI A A ARKANSAS A N LOUISIANA A B WISCONSIN A A ILLINOIS A A MISSISSIPPI A B MICHIGAN A N INDIANA A N OHIO A N KENTUCKY A N TENNESSEE A B ALABAMA A B NEW YORK N B VERMONT N B NEW HAMP N B MAINE N N MASS N B CONN N B RHODE IS N B PENN N B NEW JERSEY N B W VIRGINIA N B MARYLAND N B DELAWARE N B VIRGINIA N B N CAROLINA N B S CAROLINA A B GEORGIA A B FL PNHDL N B FL PENIN A B AK N SLOPE N N AK ALEUTIAN A A AK WESTERN A A AK INT BSN A N AK S INT A A AK SO COAST A A AK PNHDL A N 8 to 14 day Outlook Table OUTLOOK FOR OCT 05 - 11, 2006 STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN WASHINGTON A B OREGON A B NRN CALIF A B SRN CALIF A N IDAHO N B NEVADA A B W MONTANA A B E MONTANA A N WYOMING N N UTAH N N ARIZONA N A COLORADO N N NEW MEXICO N A N DAKOTA A N S DAKOTA A B NEBRASKA N B KANSAS N N OKLAHOMA N N N TEXAS N N S TEXAS N N W TEXAS B A MINNESOTA N N IOWA N B MISSOURI N N ARKANSAS N N LOUISIANA N B WISCONSIN N N ILLINOIS N N MISSISSIPPI N B MICHIGAN B N INDIANA N N OHIO N N KENTUCKY N N TENNESSEE N N ALABAMA N B NEW YORK B N VERMONT B N NEW HAMP B N MAINE B N MASS B B CONN B B RHODE IS N B PENN B B NEW JERSEY N B W VIRGINIA N B MARYLAND N B DELAWARE N B VIRGINIA N B N CAROLINA N B S CAROLINA N B GEORGIA N B FL PNHDL A B FL PENIN A B AK N SLOPE N N AK ALEUTIAN N N AK WESTERN N N AK INT BSN N N AK S INT A A AK SO COAST A A AK PNHDL A A LEGEND TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN A - ABOVE N - NEAR NORMAL A - ABOVE N - NEAR MEDIAN B - BELOW B - BELOW THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS PMDMRD. $$