PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSIONS FOR 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD 300 PM EDT TUE SEP 26 2006 6-10 DAY OUTLOOK VALID FOR OCT 02 - 06 2006 TODAYS NUMERICAL MODELS HAVE COME INTO GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE FORECAST 500-HPA FLOW PATTERN. THE TRANSISITION FROM A WESTERN RIDGE - EASTERN TROUGH PATTERN TO A WESTERN TROUGH - EASTERN RIDGE PATTERN IS NOW PREDICTED TO OCCUR EARLY WITHIN THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD, AND ONLY YESTERDAYS GFS 12Z ENSEMBLE MEAN STILL SHOWS A WEAK RESIDUAL TROUGH OVER THE NORTHEASTERN U.S. IN GENRERAL, THE ECMWF PRODUCTS - ESPECIALLY THE HIGH RESOLUTION EXTENDED OPERATIONAL RUNS - HAVE A MORE AMPLFIED RIDGE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AND A DEEPER TROUGH NEAR THE WEST COAST THAN THE GFS PRODUCTS. ANOTHER CONSISTENT DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF MODELS TODAY IS THAT THE ECMWF MODELS MAINTAIN A MUCH MORE AMPLIFIED RIDGE OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA... WHILE THE GFS MODELS ENLARGE AND PROGRESS THE LOW SOUTH OF THE ALUETIANS EASTWARD OVER MOST OF THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA. THE HEIGHT PATTERN AS SHOWN BY THE OFFICIAL BLENDED FORECAST SHOWS PROMINENT TROUGHS OVER THE BERING SEA... ALEUTIANS AND NEAR THE CALIFORNIA COAST... AS WELL AS A VERY WEAK RESIDUAL TROUGH OFF THE NORTH ATLANTIC COAST. A STRONG TROUGH IS INDICATED OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC SOUTH OF A BLOCKING RIDGE OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC SECTOR CENTERED OVER GREENLAND... WHILE A MODERATELY STRONG RIDGE IS FORCAST TO DEVELOP OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. FORCEAST TOOLS BASED ON THIS PATTERN NOW SHOW WAMRTH OVER THE MIDDLE OF THE CONUS AND COOL CONDITIONS OVER MOST OF THE WEST... WITH WET WEATHER OVER THE WEST AND CENTRAL CONUS AND GENERALLY DRY IN THE EAST AND SOUTH. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND PRECIPITATION ARE ALSO LIKELY FOR MOST OF ALASKA WITH ABOVE NORMAL HEIGHTS AND A GENERALLY ANOMALOUS SOUTHERLY FLOW OF RELATIVELY MILD MARITIME AIR INTO THE STATE... ALTHOUGH THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE COULD BE DRY UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A WEAK RIDGE WITH ANOMALOUS DOWNSLOPE WIND COMPONENTS. TODAYS OFFICIAL 500-HPA BLEND CONSISTS OF 20 PERCENT OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8...20 PERCENT OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8...40 PERCENT OF TODAY'S GFS SUPERENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8...AND 20 PERCENT OF TODAY'S EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 7. MODEL(S) OF THE DAY: GFS SUPERENSEMBLE MEAN FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD IS ABOVE AVERAGE... 4 ON A SCALE OF 1 TO 5 DUE TO GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT THAT THIS PATTERN WILL BE ESTABLISHED BY EARLY IN THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD. THE 6-10 DAY TEMPERATURE PROG IS BASED ON THE CPC AUTO FORECAST... KLEIN AND ANALOG SPECIFICATIONS FROM THE OFFICIAL BLENDED HEIGHTS... CALIBRATED AND UNCALIBRATED TEMPERATURE FROM THE 0Z GFS OPERATIONAL MODEL AND ENSEMBLE MEAN... AND THE CDC CALIBRATED FORECAST. THE 6-10 DAY PRECIPITATION PROG IS BASED ON THE NEURAL NET SPECIFICATION... THE CPC AUTO FORECAST... THE CPC AND EMC CALIBRATED PRECIPITATION FROM THE GFS ENSEMBLES... AND THE CDC CALIBRATED FORECAST. 8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR OCT 04 - 10 2006: FOR WEEK 2... THERE IS RELATIVELY POOR MODEL AGREEMENT TODAY ON THE 500-HPA FLOW PATTERN. MOST MODELS PROGRESS AND DEEPEN BOTH THE ALEUTIAN LOW AND THIS DEVELOPMENT PUSHES THE RIDGE SLIGHTLY EASTWARD FROM THE EASTERN GULF OF ALASKA INTO WESTERN CANADA. A BUILDING RIDGE IN THIS REGION FAVORS THE REDEVELOPMENT OF A TROUGH SOMEWHWERE OVER EASTERN NORTH AMERICA, LEADING TO A QUICK DEMISE OF THE RIDGE THAT WAS PREDICTED FAIRLY CONFIDENTLY FOR THE EAST-CENTRAL U.S. DURING THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD. THIS SEEMS TO BE A RATHER NEW DEVELOPMENT... AS YESTERDAYS 12Z AND 18Z GFS OPERATIONAL AND ENSEMBLE MEAN MODELS KEPT A RIDGE OVER THE MISSISSIPPI AND OHIO VALLEYS. THE BLOCKING RIDGE OVER GREENLAND IS PREDICTED TO REMAIN IN PLACE, WHILE THE TROUGH OVER EASTERN NORTH AMERICA IS INDICATED TO BEGIN TO REDEEPEN. DUE TO THIS NEW UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW LONG THE PATTERN PREDICTED FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD MAY LAST... THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST FOR THE WEEK TWO PERIOD. PREDICTED MIDDLE TROPOSPHERIC HEIGHT ANOMALIES AND FORECAST TOOLS FOR TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION BASED ON THE PATTERN ARE VERY WEAK AND GIVE RATHER UNCERTAIN INDICATIONS IN MOST AREAS. MOST OF ALASKA IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN GENRALLY MILD AND WET. THE OFFICIAL 8-14 DAY HEIGHT PROG CONSISTS OF 10 PERCENT OF TODAY'S OPERATIONAL 0Z GFS CENTERED ON DAY 11...10 PERCENT OF TODAY'S OPERATIONAL 6Z GFS CENTERED ON DAY 11...15 PERCENT OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11...20 PERCENT OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11...10 PERCENT OF YESTERDAY'S 18Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 10...25 PERCENT OF TODAY'S GFS SUPERENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11...AND 10 PERCENT OF TODAY'S CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11. FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD IS BELOW AVERAGE TODAY... 2 ON A SCALE OF 1 TO 5 DUE TO UNCERTAINTY AS TO THE POSSIBLE DEVLEOPMENT OF A NEW PATTERN BEFORE THE END OF THE PERIOD. THE 8-14 DAY TEMPERATURE PROG IS BASED ON THE CPC AUTO FORECAST... KLEIN... NERUAL NET AND ANALOG SPECIFICATIONS FROM THE OFFICIAL BLENDED HEIGHTS... AND THE CDC CALIBRATED FORECAST. THE 8-14 DAY PRECIPITATION PROG IS BASED ON THE CPC AUTO FORECAST... THE CPC AND EMC CALIBRATED PRECIPITATION FROM THE GFS ENSEMBLES... AND THE CDC CALIBRATED FORECAST. FORECASTER: A. J. WAGNER NOTES: OPERATIONAL CHANGE: AS OF JULY 5 2005 SHADED MAPS HAVE REPLACED THE CONTOUR-ONLY MAPS ON THE CPC WEB SITE. THE CONTOURED MAPS ARE STILL AVAILABLE AT THEIR CURRENT FILE NAMES - SO DIRECT-LINKED USERS ARE NOT AFFECTED. AWIPS GRAPHICS ARE ALSO NOT AFFECTED BY THIS CHANGE. AUTOMATED FORECASTS ARE ISSUED ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. OTHERWISE - FORECASTS INCORPORATE FORECASTER INPUT. THE NOTATION FOR THE CATEGORICAL FORECAST INDICATED ON THE MAPS IS THE SAME AS THAT IN THE TABLES: A-ABOVE N-NEAR NORMAL B-BELOW IN THE SOUTHWEST AND OTHER CLIMATOLOGICALLY DRY REGIONS - THERE WILL BE A GREATER THAN 33.3% CHANCE OF NO PRECIPITATION AND OCCASIONALLY EVEN A NORMAL (I.E. MEDIAN) VALUE OF ZERO - ESPECIALLY DURING THE DRY SEASONS. IN SUCH CASES A FORECAST OF NEAR NORMAL IS EFFECTIVELY A FORECAST OF LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION. THE NARRATIVE DESCRIPTION OF THE FORECAST PATTERNS FOR TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION FOR BOTH THE 6-10 OR 8-14 DAY PERIODS HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED. THE STATE TABLES FOR BOTH THE 6-10 AND 8-14 DAY PERIODS ARE NOW CONTAINED IN THIS MESSAGE...AVAILABLE AS PMDMRD ON AWIPS. THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER USES 1971-2000 BASE PERIOD MEANS FOR TEMPERATURE...PRECIPITATION...AND 500-HPA HEIGHTS AS REFERENCE IN THE CLIMATE OUTLOOKS. THE NEXT SET OF LONG-LEAD MONTHLY AND SEASONAL OUTLOOKS WILL BE RELEASED ON OCTOBER 19. AN UPDATED MONTHLY FORECAST FOR OCTOBER WILL ALSO BE ISSUED ON SEPTEMBER 30. NEW NOTE EFFECTIVE MAR 16 2004: THE GLOSSARY FORMERLY FOUND AT THIS LOCATION WILL NO LONGER BE TRANSMITTED AS PART OF THIS MESSAGE. IF YOU WISH TO SEE THE DEFINITIONS OF TERMS USED IN THESE MESSAGES... PLEASE GO TO THE CPC WEB PAGE AT (USE LOWER CASE) HTTP://WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV AND FOLLOW THE APPROPRIATE LINKS. ANALOGS TO THE 5 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 3 DAYS AGO (D-3) FOR THE REGION FROM 20N to 70N LATITUDE AND 175E to 60W LONGITUDE INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES: 19660930 - 19791010 - 19980921 - 19871010 - 19650916 ANALOGS TO THE 7 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 4 DAYS AGO (D-4) FOR THE REGION FROM 20N to 70N LATITUDE AND 175E to 60W LONGITUDE INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES: 19660930 - 19980921 - 19851005 - 19860908 - 19880906 6 to 10 day Outlook Table OUTLOOK FOR OCT 02 - 06, 2006 STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN WASHINGTON N B OREGON N N NRN CALIF N N SRN CALIF B A IDAHO N N NEVADA N A W MONTANA B N E MONTANA B A WYOMING N A UTAH N A ARIZONA N N COLORADO N A NEW MEXICO A N N DAKOTA B A S DAKOTA N A NEBRASKA N A KANSAS A A OKLAHOMA A N N TEXAS A B S TEXAS A B W TEXAS A N MINNESOTA N A IOWA N A MISSOURI A A ARKANSAS A N LOUISIANA A B WISCONSIN N A ILLINOIS A A MISSISSIPPI A B MICHIGAN N A INDIANA A A OHIO N N KENTUCKY A N TENNESSEE A N ALABAMA A B NEW YORK N B VERMONT N N NEW HAMP N N MAINE N N MASS N B CONN N B RHODE IS N B PENN N B NEW JERSEY N B W VIRGINIA N B MARYLAND N B DELAWARE N B VIRGINIA N B N CAROLINA N B S CAROLINA N B GEORGIA N B FL PNHDL N B FL PENIN A B AK N SLOPE A N AK ALEUTIAN A A AK WESTERN A A AK INT BSN A N AK S INT A A AK SO COAST A A AK PNHDL N N 8 to 14 day Outlook Table OUTLOOK FOR OCT 04 - 10, 2006 STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN WASHINGTON A B OREGON A B NRN CALIF A B SRN CALIF N N IDAHO A B NEVADA A B W MONTANA A B E MONTANA N N WYOMING N N UTAH N N ARIZONA N N COLORADO N N NEW MEXICO N N N DAKOTA N N S DAKOTA N B NEBRASKA N B KANSAS N B OKLAHOMA N N N TEXAS N N S TEXAS N N W TEXAS N A MINNESOTA B N IOWA B N MISSOURI N N ARKANSAS N N LOUISIANA N B WISCONSIN B A ILLINOIS B N MISSISSIPPI A B MICHIGAN B A INDIANA N N OHIO N N KENTUCKY N N TENNESSEE N N ALABAMA A B NEW YORK N N VERMONT B N NEW HAMP N N MAINE B N MASS N B CONN N B RHODE IS N B PENN N B NEW JERSEY N B W VIRGINIA N N MARYLAND N B DELAWARE N B VIRGINIA N B N CAROLINA N N S CAROLINA N N GEORGIA A B FL PNHDL A B FL PENIN A B AK N SLOPE N N AK ALEUTIAN N A AK WESTERN A N AK INT BSN A N AK S INT A A AK SO COAST A A AK PNHDL A N LEGEND TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN A - ABOVE N - NEAR NORMAL A - ABOVE N - NEAR MEDIAN B - BELOW B - BELOW THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS PMDMRD. $$