PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSIONS FOR 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD 300 PM EDT MON SEP 25 2006 6-10 DAY OUTLOOK VALID FOR OCT 01 - 05 2006 TODAYS NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN RATHER POOR AGREEMENT ON THE FORECAST 500-HPA FLOW PATTERN. WHAT APPEARS TO BE ABOUT TO OCCUR IS A TRANSISITION FROM A WESTERN RIDGE - EASTERN TROUGH PATTERN TO A WESTERN TROUGH - EASTERN RIDGE PATTERN, AND THE MODELS DIFFER ON THE TIMING OF THIS EVENT WITHIN THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD. THIS WAS SUGGESTED BY YESTERDAY AUTOMATED PROGS, WHICH WENT VERY ABRUPTLY FROM THE FORMER PATTERN FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD TO THE LATTER PATTERN FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD. TODAY THERE IS AT LEAST SOME CONSISTENCY IN THE TIMING IN THAT THE TRANSITION IS STARTING DURING THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD ACCORIDNG TO THE 0Z HIGH-RESOLUTION ECMWF AND THE 0Z AND 6Z GFS PRODUCTS. HOWEVER, THE 12 ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN AND 12 OPERATIONAL ECMWF AND MOST OF YESTERDAYS GFS PRODUCTS STILL INDICATE AN EASTERN TROUGH OF VARYING INSTENSITY. UNFORTUNATELY THE 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN, 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN AND GFS SUERENSEMBLE MEAN WERE NOT AVAILABLE IN TIME FOR THE FORECAST TODAY, AS THESE MOELS HAVE HAD SLIGHTLY BETTER ANOMALY CORRELATIONS THAN MOST OF THE OTHER MODELS IN THE PAST FEW WEEKS, AND ALSO WOULD HAVE GIVEN MORE MODEL SOLUTIONS WITH LATER INITIALIZATIONS. THE HEIGHT PATTERN AS SHOWN BY THE OFFICIAL BLENDED FORECAST SHOWS TROUGHS NEAR THE CALIFORNIA COAST, AND OVER THE OHIO VALLEY, AND A WEAK RIDGE OVER THE GREAT PLAINS. HEIGHTS ARE FORECAST TO BE ABOVE NORMAL OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA AND OVER MOST OF ALASKA ITSELF, AS WELL AS OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC SECTOR CENTERED OVER GREENLAND. FORCEAST TOOLS BASED ON THIS PATTERN GIVE GENERALLY COOL AND WET CODTIONS OVER MOST OF THE CONUS, BUT WITH RATHER WEAK PROBABILITIES. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND PRECIPITATION ARE LIKELY FOR MOST OF ALASKA WITH ABOVE NORMAL HEIGHTS AND SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OF RELATIVELY MILD MARITIME AIR INTO THE STATE, ALTHOUGH THE PANHANDLE IS LIKELY TO BE DRY WITH ANOMALOUS DOWNSLOPE WIND COMPONENTS. TODAYS OFFICIAL 500-HPA BLEND CONSISTS OF 10 PERCENT OF TODAY'S OPERATIONAL 0Z GFS CENTERED ON DAY 8...15 PERCENT OF TODAY'S OPERATIONAL 6Z GFS CENTERED ON DAY 8...15 PERCENT OF TODAY'S OPERATIONAL ECMWF CENTERED ON DAY 7...25 PERCENT OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8...10 PERCENT OF YESTERDAY'S 18Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 7...AND 25 PERCENT OF TODAY'S EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 7. MODEL(S) OF THE DAY: 0Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN AND 12Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD IS BELOW AVERAGE... 2 ON A SCALE OF 1 TO 5 DUE TO POOR MODEL AGREEMENT FROM UNCERTAIN TIMING OF A PATTERN TRANSITION EXPECTED WITHIN THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD. THE 6-10 DAY TEMPERATURE PROG IS BASED ON THE CPC AUTO FORECAST... KLEIN AND ANALOG SPECIFICATIONS FROM THE OFFICIAL BLENDED HEIGHTS... CALIBRATED AND UNCALIBRATED TEMPERATURE FROM THE 0Z GFS OPERATIONAL MODEL AND ENSEMBLE MEAN... AND THE CDC CALIBRATED FORECAST. THE 6-10 DAY PRECIPITATION PROG IS BASED ON THE NEURAL NET SPECIFICATION... THE CPC AUTO FORECAST... THE CPC AND EMC CALIBRATED PRECIPITATION FROM THE GFS ENSEMBLES... AND THE CDC CALIBRATED FORECAST. 8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR OCT 03 - 09 2006: FOR WEEK 2, THERE IS RELATIVELY GOOR MODEL AGREEMENT ON THE 500-HPA FLOW PATTERN, AS JUST ABOUT ALL THE MODELS AGREE THAT THE PATTERN TRANSITION WILL HAVE BEEN COMPLETED BY EARLY IN THIS PERIOD. THE RIDGE IS PREDICTED TO PROGRESS SLIGHTLY FROM SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIANS TO THE NORTHEASTERN GULF OF ALAKSA, THE TROUGH REMAINS NEAR THE CALIFORNIA COAST, AND THE WEAK RIDGE IS INDICATED TO PROGRESS FROM THE PLAINS TO THE OHIO VALLEY AND AMPLIFY. THE BLOCKING RIDGE OVER GREENLAND REMAINS IN PLACE. THIS FORECAST PATTERN HAS MUCH BETTER TELECONNECTIVITY THAN THE ONE FORECAST FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD, AND THE FORECAST TOOLS BASED ON IT ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT, GIVING A GENERALLY WARM EAST, COLD WEST, AND WET FROM THE ROCKIES TO THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY PATTERN. ALASKA IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN GENRALLY MILD AND WET, EXCEPT FOR DRY IN THE PANHANDLE. THE OFFICIAL 8-14 DAY HEIGHT PROG CONSISTS OF 20 PERCENT OF TODAY'S OPERATIONAL 0Z GFS CENTERED ON DAY 11...20 PERCENT OF TODAY'S OPERATIONAL 6Z GFS CENTERED ON DAY 11...30 PERCENT OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11...15 PERCENT OF YESTERDAY'S 12Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 10...AND 15 PERCENT OF YESTERDAY'S 18Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 10. FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD IS ABOVE AVERAGE TODAY... 4 ON A SCALE OF 1 TO 5 DUE TO GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE VARIOUS AVAILABLE MODELS AND A BETTER TELECONNECTED PATTERN THAN FOR DURING THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD. THE 8-14 DAY TEMPERATURE PROG IS BASED ON THE CPC AUTO FORECAST... KLEIN... NERUAL NET AND ANALOG SPECIFICATIONS FROM THE OFFICIAL BLENDED HEIGHTS... AND THE CDC CALIBRATED FORECAST. THE 8-14 DAY PRECIPITATION PROG IS BASED ON THE CPC AUTO FORECAST... THE CPC AND EMC CALIBRATED PRECIPITATION FROM THE GFS ENSEMBLES... AND THE CDC CALIBRATED FORECAST. FORECASTER: A. J. WAGNER NOTES: OPERATIONAL CHANGE: AS OF JULY 5 2005 SHADED MAPS HAVE REPLACED THE CONTOUR-ONLY MAPS ON THE CPC WEB SITE. THE CONTOURED MAPS ARE STILL AVAILABLE AT THEIR CURRENT FILE NAMES - SO DIRECT-LINKED USERS ARE NOT AFFECTED. AWIPS GRAPHICS ARE ALSO NOT AFFECTED BY THIS CHANGE. AUTOMATED FORECASTS ARE ISSUED ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. OTHERWISE - FORECASTS INCORPORATE FORECASTER INPUT. THE NOTATION FOR THE CATEGORICAL FORECAST INDICATED ON THE MAPS IS THE SAME AS THAT IN THE TABLES: A-ABOVE N-NEAR NORMAL B-BELOW IN THE SOUTHWEST AND OTHER CLIMATOLOGICALLY DRY REGIONS - THERE WILL BE A GREATER THAN 33.3% CHANCE OF NO PRECIPITATION AND OCCASIONALLY EVEN A NORMAL (I.E. MEDIAN) VALUE OF ZERO - ESPECIALLY DURING THE DRY SEASONS. IN SUCH CASES A FORECAST OF NEAR NORMAL IS EFFECTIVELY A FORECAST OF LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION. THE NARRATIVE DESCRIPTION OF THE FORECAST PATTERNS FOR TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION FOR BOTH THE 6-10 OR 8-14 DAY PERIODS HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED. THE STATE TABLES FOR BOTH THE 6-10 AND 8-14 DAY PERIODS ARE NOW CONTAINED IN THIS MESSAGE...AVAILABLE AS PMDMRD ON AWIPS. THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER USES 1971-2000 BASE PERIOD MEANS FOR TEMPERATURE...PRECIPITATION...AND 500-HPA HEIGHTS AS REFERENCE IN THE CLIMATE OUTLOOKS. THE NEXT SET OF LONG-LEAD MONTHLY AND SEASONAL OUTLOOKS WILL BE RELEASED ON OCTOBER 19. AN UPDATED MONTHLY FORECAST FOR OCTOBER WILL ALSO BE ISSUED ON SEPTEMBER 30. NEW NOTE EFFECTIVE MAR 16 2004: THE GLOSSARY FORMERLY FOUND AT THIS LOCATION WILL NO LONGER BE TRANSMITTED AS PART OF THIS MESSAGE. IF YOU WISH TO SEE THE DEFINITIONS OF TERMS USED IN THESE MESSAGES... PLEASE GO TO THE CPC WEB PAGE AT (USE LOWER CASE) HTTP://WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV AND FOLLOW THE APPROPRIATE LINKS. ANALOGS TO THE 5 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 3 DAYS AGO (D-3) FOR THE REGION FROM 20N to 70N LATITUDE AND 175E to 60W LONGITUDE INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES: 19660930 - 19980921 - 19851005 - 19650916 - 19981002 ANALOGS TO THE 7 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 4 DAYS AGO (D-4) FOR THE REGION FROM 20N to 70N LATITUDE AND 175E to 60W LONGITUDE INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES: 19980921 - 19851005 - 19981002 - 19660930 - 19960924 6 to 10 day Outlook Table OUTLOOK FOR OCT 01 - 05, 2006 STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN WASHINGTON N B OREGON N N NRN CALIF N A SRN CALIF B A IDAHO N N NEVADA N A W MONTANA N N E MONTANA N N WYOMING N N UTAH N N ARIZONA N N COLORADO N N NEW MEXICO N B N DAKOTA B N S DAKOTA B A NEBRASKA N N KANSAS N N OKLAHOMA N N N TEXAS N B S TEXAS A B W TEXAS A B MINNESOTA B A IOWA B A MISSOURI B N ARKANSAS B N LOUISIANA N B WISCONSIN B A ILLINOIS B A MISSISSIPPI N B MICHIGAN B A INDIANA B A OHIO B A KENTUCKY B N TENNESSEE B N ALABAMA N B NEW YORK B A VERMONT N A NEW HAMP N A MAINE N A MASS N A CONN N A RHODE IS N A PENN B N NEW JERSEY B N W VIRGINIA B N MARYLAND B N DELAWARE B N VIRGINIA B N N CAROLINA B N S CAROLINA N B GEORGIA N B FL PNHDL N B FL PENIN A B AK N SLOPE A A AK ALEUTIAN A A AK WESTERN A A AK INT BSN A A AK S INT A A AK SO COAST N N AK PNHDL N B 8 to 14 day Outlook Table OUTLOOK FOR OCT 03 - 09, 2006 STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN WASHINGTON B B OREGON B N NRN CALIF B N SRN CALIF B A IDAHO B A NEVADA B A W MONTANA B A E MONTANA B A WYOMING N A UTAH N A ARIZONA N N COLORADO N A NEW MEXICO A N N DAKOTA N N S DAKOTA N N NEBRASKA A A KANSAS A A OKLAHOMA A A N TEXAS A N S TEXAS A N W TEXAS A N MINNESOTA N A IOWA A A MISSOURI A A ARKANSAS A N LOUISIANA A N WISCONSIN A A ILLINOIS A A MISSISSIPPI A N MICHIGAN A A INDIANA A A OHIO A N KENTUCKY A N TENNESSEE A N ALABAMA A N NEW YORK N B VERMONT N B NEW HAMP N B MAINE N N MASS N B CONN N B RHODE IS N B PENN A B NEW JERSEY N B W VIRGINIA A B MARYLAND N B DELAWARE N B VIRGINIA A B N CAROLINA N B S CAROLINA N N GEORGIA N N FL PNHDL N N FL PENIN A B AK N SLOPE N N AK ALEUTIAN A A AK WESTERN A A AK INT BSN A N AK S INT A A AK SO COAST A A AK PNHDL N B LEGEND TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN A - ABOVE N - NEAR NORMAL A - ABOVE N - NEAR MEDIAN B - BELOW B - BELOW THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS PMDMRD. $$