PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSIONS FOR 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD 300 PM EDT FRI SEP 22 2006 6-10 DAY OUTLOOK VALID FOR SEP 28 - OCT 02, 2006 TODAYS NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE FORECAST 500-HPA FLOW PATTERN. THE 0Z AND 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEANS AND THE ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN AGAIN FORECAST A RIDGE OVER WESTERN CANADA AND THE NORTHWEST CONUS... AND A TROUGH CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THE CANADIAN MEAN AND THE 6Z GFS OPERATIONAL MODEL WEAKEN THE RIDGE... BUT SHOW GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE LOCATION OF THE DOWNSTREAM TROUGH. THE 0Z ECMWF OPERATIONAL MODEL AMPLIFIES THE TROUGH COMPARED TO THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEANS. THIS FLOW PATTERN AGAIN FAVORS BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION EASTWARD TO NEW ENGLAND AND SOUTHWARD TO THE CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND THE APPALACHIANS... WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FAVORED FOR THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE CONUS. ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE TROUGH FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION INTO THE NORTHEAST... AND ALSO FOR FLORIDA. BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS MORE PROBABLE FROM THE NORTHWEST INTO THE GREAT BASIN... AND SOUTHWARD INTO TEXAS. THERE IS AGREEMENT AMONG THE GFS ENSEMBLES ON THE FORMATION OF AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST... WHICH WOULD BRING LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO THE COAST. THEREFORE... ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE FOR COASTAL CALIFORNIA. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY FOR EASTERN ALASKA AND THE PANHANDLE UNDER THE EASTERN PACIFIC RIDGE. A WEAK TROUGH IS FORECAST OVER THE BERING SEA AND THE ALEUTIONS... WHERE BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED. ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS LIKELY FOR SOUTHERN ALASKA AND THE PANHANDLE... AND BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS PROBABLE FOR NORTHERN ALASKA. TODAYS OFFICIAL 500-HPA BLEND CONSISTS OF 5 PERCENT OF TODAY'S OPERATIONAL 6Z GFS CENTERED ON DAY 8...5 PERCENT OF TODAY'S OPERATIONAL ECMWF CENTERED ON DAY 7...10 PERCENT OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8...35 PERCENT OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8...10 PERCENT OF TODAY'S CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8...AND 35 PERCENT OF TODAY'S EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 7. MODEL(S) OF THE DAY: 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN AND 12Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD IS ABOVE AVERAGE... 4 ON A SCALE OF 1 TO 5 DUE TO GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT. THE 6-10 DAY TEMPERATURE PROG IS BASED ON THE CPC AUTO FORECAST... KLEIN AND ANALOG SPECIFICATIONS FROM THE OFFICIAL BLENDED HEIGHTS... CALIBRATED AND UNCALIBRATED TEMPERATURE FROM THE 0Z GFS OPERATIONAL MODEL AND ENSEMBLE MEAN... AND THE CDC CALIBRATED FORECAST. THE 6-10 DAY PRECIPITATION PROG IS BASED ON THE CPC AUTO FORECAST... THE CPC CALIBRATED PRECIPITATION FROM THE GFS ENSEMBLES... AND THE CDC CALIBRATED FORECAST. 8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR SEP 30 - OCT 06, 2006: FOR WEEK 2... THERE IS RELATIVELY POOR MODEL AGREEMENT ON THE 500-HPA FLOW PATTERN. THE 0Z AND 6Z ENSEMBLE MEANS AND THE CANADIAN MEAN INDICATE ZONAL FLOW WITH SMALL HEIGHT ANOMALIES. WHILE THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEANS MAINTAIN A WEAK RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE CANADIAN BORDER AND THE NORTHERN PLAINS... THE CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN HAS ONE BROAD WEAK NEGAITIVE HEIGHT ANOMALY OVER THE ENTIRE CONUS. BECAUSE THERE IS SIGNIFICANT DISAGREEMENT AMONG INDIVIDUAL ENSEMBLE MEMBERS AS TO THE PHASE AND AMPLITUDE OF THE FLOW PATTERN... UNCERTAINTY IN THE TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION ANOMALY FIELDS IS HIGH. THE 12Z GFS OPERATIONAL MODEL INDICATES A WESTERN TROUGH AND EASTERN RIDGE OVER THE CONUS SIMILAR TO THE 6-10 DAY FORECAST... AS DO INDIVIDUAL ENSEMBLE MEMBERS OF THE 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE. THE 6Z OPERATIONAL MODEL INDICATES A MORE ZONAL FLOW PATTERN SIMILAR TO THE ENSEMBLE MEANS. FOR CONTINUITY WITH YESTERDAYS FORECAST... A MORE AMPLIFIED FLOW PATTERN WAS FAVORED. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED FOR THE NORTHEAST CONUS FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION TO THE OHIO VALLEY. UNDER THE UPSTREAM RIDGE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE MORE LIKELY FOR THE WESTERN CONUS AND EASTERN ALASKA AND THE PANHANDLE. ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS PROBABLE AHEAD OF THE TROUGH AXIS IN THE NORTHEAST. A DRYING TREND OVER MUCH OF THE CONUS RESULTS IN BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION BEING FAVORED FROM THE 48TH PARALLEL SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE GREAT PLAINS AND INTO THE CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THE OFFICIAL 8-14 DAY HEIGHT PROG CONSISTS OF 30 PERCENT OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11...50 PERCENT OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11...AND 20 PERCENT OF TODAY'S CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11. FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD IS BELOW AVERAGE TODAY... 2 ON A SCALE OF 1 TO 5 DUE TO POOR AGREEMENT IN THE MODEL ENSEMBLE MEMBERS. THE 8-14 DAY TEMPERATURE PROG IS BASED ON THE CPC AUTO FORECAST... KLEIN AND ANALOG SPECIFICATIONS FROM THE OFFICIAL BLENDED HEIGHTS... AND THE CDC CALIBRATED FORECAST. THE 8-14 DAY PRECIPITATION PROG IS BASED ON THE CPC AUTO FORECAST... THE CPC CALIBRATED PRECIPITATION FROM THE GFS ENSEMBLES... AND THE CDC CALIBRATED FORECAST. FORECASTER: D. COLLINS NOTES: OPERATIONAL CHANGE: AS OF JULY 5 2005 SHADED MAPS HAVE REPLACED THE CONTOUR-ONLY MAPS ON THE CPC WEB SITE. THE CONTOURED MAPS ARE STILL AVAILABLE AT THEIR CURRENT FILE NAMES - SO DIRECT-LINKED USERS ARE NOT AFFECTED. AWIPS GRAPHICS ARE ALSO NOT AFFECTED BY THIS CHANGE. AUTOMATED FORECASTS ARE ISSUED ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. OTHERWISE - FORECASTS INCORPORATE FORECASTER INPUT. THE NOTATION FOR THE CATEGORICAL FORECAST INDICATED ON THE MAPS IS THE SAME AS THAT IN THE TABLES: A-ABOVE N-NEAR NORMAL B-BELOW IN THE SOUTHWEST AND OTHER CLIMATOLOGICALLY DRY REGIONS - THERE WILL BE A GREATER THAN 33.3% CHANCE OF NO PRECIPITATION AND OCCASIONALLY EVEN A NORMAL (I.E. MEDIAN) VALUE OF ZERO - ESPECIALLY DURING THE DRY SEASONS. IN SUCH CASES A FORECAST OF NEAR NORMAL IS EFFECTIVELY A FORECAST OF LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION. THE NARRATIVE DESCRIPTION OF THE FORECAST PATTERNS FOR TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION FOR BOTH THE 6-10 OR 8-14 DAY PERIODS HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED. THE STATE TABLES FOR BOTH THE 6-10 AND 8-14 DAY PERIODS ARE NOW CONTAINED IN THIS MESSAGE...AVAILABLE AS PMDMRD ON AWIPS. THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER USES 1971-2000 BASE PERIOD MEANS FOR TEMPERATURE...PRECIPITATION...AND 500-HPA HEIGHTS AS REFERENCE IN THE CLIMATE OUTLOOKS. THE NEXT SET OF LONG-LEAD MONTHLY AND SEASONAL OUTLOOKS WILL BE RELEASED ON OCTOBER 19. AN UPDATED MONTHLY FORECAST WILL ALSO BE ISSUED ON SEPTEMBER 30. NEW NOTE EFFECTIVE MAR 16 2004: THE GLOSSARY FORMERLY FOUND AT THIS LOCATION WILL NO LONGER BE TRANSMITTED AS PART OF THIS MESSAGE. IF YOU WISH TO SEE THE DEFINITIONS OF TERMS USED IN THESE MESSAGES... PLEASE GO TO THE CPC WEB PAGE AT (USE LOWER CASE) HTTP://WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV AND FOLLOW THE APPROPRIATE LINKS. ANALOGS TO THE 5 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 3 DAYS AGO (D-3) FOR THE REGION FROM 20N to 70N LATITUDE AND 175E to 60W LONGITUDE INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES: 19981002 - 19960922 - 19681006 - 19540911 - 19811006 ANALOGS TO THE 7 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 4 DAYS AGO (D-4) FOR THE REGION FROM 20N to 70N LATITUDE AND 175E to 60W LONGITUDE INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES: 19981003 - 19690904 - 19550922 - 19960918 - 19860927 6 to 10 day Outlook Table OUTLOOK FOR SEP 28 - OCT 02, 2006 STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN WASHINGTON A B OREGON A B NRN CALIF A N SRN CALIF A N IDAHO A B NEVADA A N W MONTANA A B E MONTANA N B WYOMING N B UTAH A N ARIZONA A N COLORADO N B NEW MEXICO N N N DAKOTA N B S DAKOTA N B NEBRASKA N B KANSAS N B OKLAHOMA N B N TEXAS N B S TEXAS N N W TEXAS N B MINNESOTA B N IOWA B N MISSOURI B N ARKANSAS B N LOUISIANA N N WISCONSIN B A ILLINOIS B N MISSISSIPPI B N MICHIGAN B A INDIANA B A OHIO B A KENTUCKY B A TENNESSEE B N ALABAMA B N NEW YORK B A VERMONT B A NEW HAMP B A MAINE N A MASS B A CONN B A RHODE IS B A PENN B A NEW JERSEY B A W VIRGINIA B A MARYLAND B A DELAWARE B A VIRGINIA B A N CAROLINA N N S CAROLINA N N GEORGIA N N FL PNHDL N N FL PENIN A A AK N SLOPE A B AK ALEUTIAN B N AK WESTERN N N AK INT BSN N B AK S INT N A AK SO COAST N A AK PNHDL A A 8 to 14 day Outlook Table OUTLOOK FOR SEP 30 - OCT 06, 2006 STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN WASHINGTON A N OREGON A N NRN CALIF A N SRN CALIF A N IDAHO A B NEVADA A N W MONTANA A B E MONTANA A B WYOMING A B UTAH A N ARIZONA A N COLORADO A B NEW MEXICO N N N DAKOTA A B S DAKOTA A B NEBRASKA N B KANSAS N B OKLAHOMA N B N TEXAS N B S TEXAS N N W TEXAS N N MINNESOTA N B IOWA N B MISSOURI N B ARKANSAS N B LOUISIANA N N WISCONSIN B B ILLINOIS B B MISSISSIPPI N N MICHIGAN B N INDIANA B N OHIO B N KENTUCKY B B TENNESSEE B B ALABAMA N N NEW YORK B A VERMONT B A NEW HAMP B A MAINE B A MASS B A CONN B A RHODE IS B A PENN B N NEW JERSEY B A W VIRGINIA B N MARYLAND B N DELAWARE B A VIRGINIA B N N CAROLINA N N S CAROLINA N N GEORGIA N N FL PNHDL N N FL PENIN A A AK N SLOPE A N AK ALEUTIAN N N AK WESTERN N B AK INT BSN A N AK S INT A A AK SO COAST A A AK PNHDL A A LEGEND TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN A - ABOVE N - NEAR NORMAL A - ABOVE N - NEAR MEDIAN B - BELOW B - BELOW THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS PMDMRD. $$