PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSIONS FOR 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD 300 PM EDT THU SEP 21 2006 6-10 DAY OUTLOOK VALID FOR SEP 27 - OCT 01, 2006 TODAYS NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN DEPICTING A MODERATE TO HIGHLY AMPLIFIED 500-HPA FLOW PATTERN OVER MOST OF THE FORECAST DOMAIN. THIS AMPLIFICATION IS GENERALLY HIGHER IN TODAYS GFS AND CANADIAN BASED MODEL SOLUTIONS THAN YESTERDAYS 12Z ECMWF BASED SOLUTIONS. HOWEVER...EVEN THE ECMWF IS TRENDING TOWARD HIGHER AMPLIFICATION AS IS EVIDENCED BY TODAYS OPERATIONAL 0Z SOLUTION. A MODERATE TO STRONG RIDGE IS DEPICTED BY ALL SOLUTIONS OVER WESTERN CANADA...THE ALASKAN PANHANDLE...AND THE NORTHWEST CONUS WHILE A STRONG TROUGH IS FORECAST TO DOMINATE MOST OF THE EASTERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE CONUS. THIS PATTERN FAVORS WARMTH FOR MUCH OF THE WESTERN CONUS AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR MOST OF THE EASTERN U.S. ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS ALSO EXPECTED OVER THE NORTHEAST CONUS ALONG AND HEAD OF THE FORECAST TROUGH AXIS OVER THE GREAT LAKES. MOST OF THE WESTERN CONUS SHOULD BE DRY AS THE RIDGE OVER WESTERN CANADA WOULD FORCE STORM SYSTEMS TO THE NORTH OVER BRITISH COLUMBIA AND THE ALASKAN PANHANDLE. MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF ALASKA SHOULD SEE NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION TO THE NORTH OF THE MEAN STORM TRACK. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE ABOVE NORMAL OVER EASTERN ALASKA AHEAD OF A MODERATELY STRONG TROUGH FORECAST FOR THE WESTERN PART OF THE STATE. NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED UNDERNEATH THIS TROUGH. SOME OF THE ENSEMBLE MEMBERS FROM ALL THREE CENTERS ARE ALSO INDICATING THE POSSIBILITY OF THE FORMATION OF A CLOSED LOW OFF OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. HOWEVER MODEL SPREAD ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE IS VERY HIGH INDICATING LOW CONFIDENCE. TODAYS OFFICIAL 500-HPA BLEND CONSISTS OF 35 PERCENT OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8...30 PERCENT OF TODAY'S CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8...AND 35 PERCENT OF TODAY'S EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 7. MODEL(S) OF THE DAY: 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN AND 12Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD IS ABOVE AVERAGE... 4 ON A SCALE OF 1 TO 5 DUE TO GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT. THE 6-10 DAY TEMPERATURE PROG IS BASED ON THE CPC AUTO FORECAST... AND KLEIN AND ANALOG SPECIFICATIONS FROM THE OFFICIAL BLENDED HEIGHTS. THE 6-10 DAY PRECIPITATION PROG IS BASED ON THE CPC AUTO FORECAST... AND CPC CALIBRATED PRECIPITATION FROM THE GFS ENSEMBLES. 8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR SEP 29 - OCT 05, 2006: THE WEEK 2 MODEL SOLUTIONS (WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE OPERATIONAL 6Z GFS) ARE GENERALLY IN GOOD AGREEMENT AND SHOW THE SAME 500-HPA FEATURES AS THE 6 TO 10 DAY FORECASTS WITH REDUCED AMPLIFICATION. THIS DEAMPLIFICATION IS ESPECIALLY APPARENT FOR THE RIDGE OVER WESTERN CANADA WHICH WOULD ALLOW THE MEAN STORM TRACK TO CREEP SOUTHWARD OVER BRITISH COLUMBIA. THIS STORM TRACK SHOULD REMAIN FAR ENOUGH TO THE NORTH TO KEEP MOST OF THE WESTERN CONUS DRY AND WARMER THAN NORMAL. HOWEVER...THE ALASKAN PANHANDLE WOULD STILL BE SUSCEPTIBLE TO BOUTS OF PRECIPITATION WITH NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION FAVORED FURTHER TO THE NORTH OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE STATE. FURTHER DOWNSTREAM...THE TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN FAIRLY STRONG RESULTING IN BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR MOST OF THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT OF THE CONUS WITH ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION FAVORED FOR NEW ENGLAND AHEAD OF THE TROUGH AXIS. MOST OF THE SHORTWAVE ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN TO THE NORTH OF THE MASON-DIXON LINE WHICH WOULD FAVOR DRIER THAN NORMAL CONDITIONS FOR MUCH OF THE DEEP SOUTH AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. SOME OF THE GFS AND CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEMBERS STILL WANT TO FORM A TROUGH OFF OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA BUT CONFIDENCE IN ITS DEVELOPMENT IS LOW THIS FAR OUT. THE OFFICIAL 8-14 DAY HEIGHT PROG CONSISTS OF 15 PERCENT OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11...30 PERCENT OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11...15 PERCENT OF TODAY'S GFS SUPERENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11...AND 40 PERCENT OF TODAY'S CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11. FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD IS AVERAGE TODAY... 3 ON A SCALE OF 1 TO 5. THE 8-14 DAY TEMPERATURE PROG IS BASED ON THE CPC AUTO FORECAST... AND KLEIN AND ANALOG SPECIFICATIONS FROM THE OFFICIAL BLENDED HEIGHTS. THE 8-14 DAY PRECIPITATION PROG IS BASED ON THE CPC AUTO FORECAST... AND CPC CALIBRATED PRECIPITATION FROM THE GFS ENSEMBLES. THE CDC CALIBRATED FORECAST WAS UNAVAILABLE TODAY. FORECASTER: S. HANDEL NOTES: OPERATIONAL CHANGE: AS OF JULY 5 2005 SHADED MAPS HAVE REPLACED THE CONTOUR-ONLY MAPS ON THE CPC WEB SITE. THE CONTOURED MAPS ARE STILL AVAILABLE AT THEIR CURRENT FILE NAMES - SO DIRECT-LINKED USERS ARE NOT AFFECTED. AWIPS GRAPHICS ARE ALSO NOT AFFECTED BY THIS CHANGE. AUTOMATED FORECASTS ARE ISSUED ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. OTHERWISE - FORECASTS INCORPORATE FORECASTER INPUT. THE NOTATION FOR THE CATEGORICAL FORECAST INDICATED ON THE MAPS IS THE SAME AS THAT IN THE TABLES: A-ABOVE N-NEAR NORMAL B-BELOW IN THE SOUTHWEST AND OTHER CLIMATOLOGICALLY DRY REGIONS - THERE WILL BE A GREATER THAN 33.3% CHANCE OF NO PRECIPITATION AND OCCASIONALLY EVEN A NORMAL (I.E. MEDIAN) VALUE OF ZERO - ESPECIALLY DURING THE DRY SEASONS. IN SUCH CASES A FORECAST OF NEAR NORMAL IS EFFECTIVELY A FORECAST OF LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION. THE NARRATIVE DESCRIPTION OF THE FORECAST PATTERNS FOR TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION FOR BOTH THE 6-10 OR 8-14 DAY PERIODS HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED. THE STATE TABLES FOR BOTH THE 6-10 AND 8-14 DAY PERIODS ARE NOW CONTAINED IN THIS MESSAGE...AVAILABLE AS PMDMRD ON AWIPS. THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER USES 1971-2000 BASE PERIOD MEANS FOR TEMPERATURE...PRECIPITATION...AND 500-HPA HEIGHTS AS REFERENCE IN THE CLIMATE OUTLOOKS. THE NEXT SET OF LONG-LEAD MONTHLY AND SEASONAL OUTLOOKS WILL BE RELEASED ON OCTOBER 19. AN UPDATED MONTHLY FORECAST WILL ALSO BE ISSUED ON SEPTEMBER 30. NEW NOTE EFFECTIVE MAR 16 2004: THE GLOSSARY FORMERLY FOUND AT THIS LOCATION WILL NO LONGER BE TRANSMITTED AS PART OF THIS MESSAGE. IF YOU WISH TO SEE THE DEFINITIONS OF TERMS USED IN THESE MESSAGES... PLEASE GO TO THE CPC WEB PAGE AT (USE LOWER CASE) HTTP://WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV AND FOLLOW THE APPROPRIATE LINKS. ANALOGS TO THE 5 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 3 DAYS AGO (D-3) FOR THE REGION FROM 20N to 70N LATITUDE AND 175E to 60W LONGITUDE INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES: 19981003 - 19690905 - 19960917 - 19950925 - 19770922 ANALOGS TO THE 7 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 4 DAYS AGO (D-4) FOR THE REGION FROM 20N to 70N LATITUDE AND 175E to 60W LONGITUDE INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES: 19550922 - 19690904 - 19771003 - 19860927 - 19981003 6 to 10 day Outlook Table OUTLOOK FOR SEP 27 - OCT 01, 2006 STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN WASHINGTON A N OREGON A B NRN CALIF A B SRN CALIF A B IDAHO A N NEVADA A B W MONTANA A N E MONTANA N A WYOMING N N UTAH A N ARIZONA A N COLORADO N N NEW MEXICO A N N DAKOTA B N S DAKOTA B N NEBRASKA N N KANSAS N N OKLAHOMA N N N TEXAS N N S TEXAS N N W TEXAS N N MINNESOTA B N IOWA B N MISSOURI B N ARKANSAS N B LOUISIANA N N WISCONSIN B A ILLINOIS B A MISSISSIPPI N B MICHIGAN B A INDIANA B A OHIO B A KENTUCKY B N TENNESSEE B B ALABAMA N B NEW YORK B A VERMONT B A NEW HAMP B A MAINE B A MASS B A CONN B A RHODE IS B A PENN B A NEW JERSEY B A W VIRGINIA B N MARYLAND B N DELAWARE B N VIRGINIA B N N CAROLINA B N S CAROLINA B N GEORGIA N B FL PNHDL N N FL PENIN A A AK N SLOPE N B AK ALEUTIAN B N AK WESTERN N B AK INT BSN A B AK S INT A N AK SO COAST A A AK PNHDL A A 8 to 14 day Outlook Table OUTLOOK FOR SEP 29 - OCT 05, 2006 STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN WASHINGTON A B OREGON A B NRN CALIF A B SRN CALIF A N IDAHO A B NEVADA A B W MONTANA A N E MONTANA A N WYOMING A B UTAH A B ARIZONA A N COLORADO N N NEW MEXICO N N N DAKOTA N N S DAKOTA N N NEBRASKA N N KANSAS N N OKLAHOMA N B N TEXAS N B S TEXAS N N W TEXAS N N MINNESOTA B N IOWA B N MISSOURI B B ARKANSAS N B LOUISIANA N N WISCONSIN B N ILLINOIS B N MISSISSIPPI N B MICHIGAN B N INDIANA B N OHIO B N KENTUCKY B B TENNESSEE B B ALABAMA N B NEW YORK B A VERMONT B A NEW HAMP B A MAINE N A MASS B A CONN B A RHODE IS B A PENN B N NEW JERSEY B A W VIRGINIA B N MARYLAND B N DELAWARE B N VIRGINIA B N N CAROLINA B N S CAROLINA N B GEORGIA N B FL PNHDL N N FL PENIN N A AK N SLOPE N B AK ALEUTIAN N N AK WESTERN N B AK INT BSN A N AK S INT A N AK SO COAST A N AK PNHDL N A LEGEND TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN A - ABOVE N - NEAR NORMAL A - ABOVE N - NEAR MEDIAN B - BELOW B - BELOW THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS PMDMRD. $$