PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSIONS FOR 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD 300 PM EDT MON SEP 18 2006 6-10 DAY OUTLOOK VALID FOR SEP 24 - 28 2006 TODAYS AVAILABLE MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT ON THE OVERALL 500-HPA FLOW PATTERN EXPECTED OVER NORTH AMERICA. THE 0Z AND 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN FORECASTS INDICATE A TROUGH IN THE 500-HPA HEIGHT FIELD OVER WESTERN CANADA INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND COASTAL CALIFORNIA. THE FLOW IS MOSTLY ZONAL FROM THE GREAT PLAINS INTO THE NORTHEASTERN STATES... WITH A NEGATIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALY OVER THE WESTERN CONUS AND A POSITIVE ANOMALY CENTERED OVER EASTERN CANADA. THIS IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN FORECASTS WITH SOME VARIATIONS IN THE STRENGTH OF ANOMALIES. THE 0Z GFS OPERATIONAL MODEL SHOWS A SLIGHTLY AMPLIFIED TROUGH AND DOWNSTREAM RIDGE ... OVER EASTERN CANADA AND THE NORTHEAST CONUS THE ECMWF 0Z OPERATIONAL MODEL HAS A FAIRLY STRONG RIDGE AND POSITIVE HEIGHT ANOMALIES. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED FOR THE CONUS WEST OF THE ROCKIES ... WHILE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED FROM THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO TEXAS AND THE WESTERN GULF STATES. NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED FOR THE EAST COAST. ABOVE MEDIAN PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED IN THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AHEAD OF THE 500-HPA TROUGH ... ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER ... AND SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. BELOW MEDIAN PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED IN THE SOUTHEAST COASTAL STATES. IT IS POSSIBLE BUT SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN THAT REMNANTS OF PACIFIC TROPICAL DEPRESSION MIRIAM WILL BRING MOISTURE TO ARIZONA AND OTHER SOUTHWEST STATES. REFER TO THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER (HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV) FOR THE LATEST INFORMATION ON MIRIAM. FOR ALASKA, A RIDGE IS INDICATED IN THE NORTH PACIFIC SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIANS ... AND A WEAK TROUGH IS EXPECTED SOUTH OF THE BERING SEA. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED OVER MUCH OF ALASKA EXCEPT THE PANHANDLE WHERE BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED. ABOVE MEDIAN PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED IN THE SOUTHWEST OF ALASKA AND THE ALEUTIANS ... AND BELOW MEDIAN PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED IN THE NORTH AND THE PANHANDLE. TODAYS OFFICIAL 500-HPA BLEND CONSISTS OF 15 PERCENT OF TODAY'S OPERATIONAL ECMWF CENTERED ON DAY 7...15 PERCENT OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8...30 PERCENT OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8...30 PERCENT OF TODAY'S CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8...AND 10 PERCENT OF TODAY'S EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 7. MODEL(S) OF THE DAY: 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN AND CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN (TIED) FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD IS AVERAGE... 3 ON A SCALE OF 1 TO 5 DUE TO FAIRLY GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT THE 6-10 DAY TEMPERATURE PROG IS BASED ON THE CPC AUTO FORECAST... AND KLEIN AND ANALOG SPECIFICATIONS FROM THE OFFICIAL BLENDED HEIGHTS. THE CDC CALIBRATED FORECAST WAS UNAVAILABLE TODAY. THE 6-10 DAY PRECIPITATION PROG IS BASED ON THE CPC AUTO FORECAST... AND CPC CALIBRATED PRECIPITATION FROM THE GFS ENSEMBLES. THE CDC CALIBRATED FORECAST WAS UNAVAILABLE TODAY. 8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR SEP 26 - OCT 02, 2006: DURING THE WEEK 2 PERIOD... THE 500-HPA FLOW PATTERN FROM ALL AVAILABLE MODELS ... THE 0Z AND 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEANS AND THE CANDIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN ... ARE SOMEWHAT SIMILAR TO THE 6-10 DAY FLOW PATTERN WITH SOME PROGRESSION OF THE TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN CONUS TO THE SOUTH AND EAST THOUGH IT REMAINS CENTERED OVER THE ROCKIES AND EXTENDS INTO COASTAL CALIFORNIA. A WEAK TROUGH IS AGAIN FORECAST OVER WESTERN ALASKA AND A RIDGE SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIANS ... THOUGH A SOMEHWHAT WEAKER POSITIVE ANOMALY IS FORECAST. THEREFORE THE TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION PATTERNS ARE SIMILAR TO THE 6-10 DAY FORECAST WITH LOWER PROBABILITIES. THIS PATTERN AGAIN FAVORS BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN THE WESTERN CONUS AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN THE PLAINS FROM CANADA TO TEXAS. A MINOR DIFFERENCE IN THE WEEK 2 PERIOD IS A LARGER AREA OF BELOW MEDIAN PRECIPITATION IN THE EAST. THE OFFICIAL 8-14 DAY HEIGHT PROG CONSISTS OF 10 PERCENT OF TODAY'S OPERATIONAL 0Z GFS CENTERED ON DAY 11...25 PERCENT OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11...50 PERCENT OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11...AND 15 PERCENT OF TODAY'S CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11. FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD IS AVERAGE TODAY... 3 ON A SCALE OF 1 TO 5. THE 8-14 DAY TEMPERATURE PROG IS BASED ON THE CPC AUTO FORECAST... AND KLEIN AND ANALOG SPECIFICATIONS FROM THE OFFICIAL BLENDED HEIGHTS. THE CDC CALIBRATED FORECAST WAS UNAVAILABLE TODAY. THE 8-14 DAY PRECIPITATION PROG IS BASED ON THE CPC AUTO FORECAST... AND CPC CALIBRATED PRECIPITATION FROM THE GFS ENSEMBLES. THE CDC CALIBRATED FORECAST WAS UNAVAILABLE TODAY. FORECASTER: D. COLLINS NOTES: OPERATIONAL CHANGE: AS OF JULY 5 2005 SHADED MAPS HAVE REPLACED THE CONTOUR-ONLY MAPS ON THE CPC WEB SITE. THE CONTOURED MAPS ARE STILL AVAILABLE AT THEIR CURRENT FILE NAMES - SO DIRECT-LINKED USERS ARE NOT AFFECTED. AWIPS GRAPHICS ARE ALSO NOT AFFECTED BY THIS CHANGE. AUTOMATED FORECASTS ARE ISSUED ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. OTHERWISE - FORECASTS INCORPORATE FORECASTER INPUT. THE NOTATION FOR THE CATEGORICAL FORECAST INDICATED ON THE MAPS IS THE SAME AS THAT IN THE TABLES: A-ABOVE N-NEAR NORMAL B-BELOW IN THE SOUTHWEST AND OTHER CLIMATOLOGICALLY DRY REGIONS - THERE WILL BE A GREATER THAN 33.3% CHANCE OF NO PRECIPITATION AND OCCASIONALLY EVEN A NORMAL (I.E. MEDIAN) VALUE OF ZERO - ESPECIALLY DURING THE DRY SEASONS. IN SUCH CASES A FORECAST OF NEAR NORMAL IS EFFECTIVELY A FORECAST OF LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION. THE NARRATIVE DESCRIPTION OF THE FORECAST PATTERNS FOR TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION FOR BOTH THE 6-10 OR 8-14 DAY PERIODS HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED. THE STATE TABLES FOR BOTH THE 6-10 AND 8-14 DAY PERIODS ARE NOW CONTAINED IN THIS MESSAGE...AVAILABLE AS PMDMRD ON AWIPS. THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER USES 1971-2000 BASE PERIOD MEANS FOR TEMPERATURE...PRECIPITATION...AND 500-HPA HEIGHTS AS REFERENCE IN THE CLIMATE OUTLOOKS. THE NEXT SET OF LONG-LEAD MONTHLY AND SEASONAL OUTLOOKS WILL BE RELEASED ON SEPTEMBER 21. NEW NOTE EFFECTIVE MAR 16 2004: THE GLOSSARY FORMERLY FOUND AT THIS LOCATION WILL NO LONGER BE TRANSMITTED AS PART OF THIS MESSAGE. IF YOU WISH TO SEE THE DEFINITIONS OF TERMS USED IN THESE MESSAGES... PLEASE GO TO THE CPC WEB PAGE AT (USE LOWER CASE) HTTP://WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV AND FOLLOW THE APPROPRIATE LINKS. ANALOGS TO THE 5 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 3 DAYS AGO (D-3) FOR THE REGION FROM 20N to 70N LATITUDE AND 175E to 60W LONGITUDE INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES: 19500929 - 19550922 - 19960904 - 19840924 - 19860928 ANALOGS TO THE 7 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 4 DAYS AGO (D-4) FOR THE REGION FROM 20N to 70N LATITUDE AND 175E to 60W LONGITUDE INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES: 19500928 - 19960904 - 19550922 - 19680921 - 19790910 6 to 10 day Outlook Table OUTLOOK FOR SEP 24 - 28, 2006 STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN WASHINGTON B A OREGON B A NRN CALIF B N SRN CALIF B N IDAHO B A NEVADA B A W MONTANA B A E MONTANA B A WYOMING B A UTAH B N ARIZONA B N COLORADO N N NEW MEXICO N N N DAKOTA N A S DAKOTA A A NEBRASKA A N KANSAS A N OKLAHOMA A N N TEXAS A N S TEXAS A N W TEXAS A N MINNESOTA A A IOWA A A MISSOURI A N ARKANSAS A A LOUISIANA A A WISCONSIN A A ILLINOIS A A MISSISSIPPI A A MICHIGAN A A INDIANA A A OHIO A A KENTUCKY A A TENNESSEE A A ALABAMA A A NEW YORK N A VERMONT N A NEW HAMP N A MAINE B A MASS N A CONN N A RHODE IS N A PENN A A NEW JERSEY N A W VIRGINIA A A MARYLAND N A DELAWARE N A VIRGINIA N N N CAROLINA N N S CAROLINA N B GEORGIA N N FL PNHDL N N FL PENIN N B AK N SLOPE A B AK ALEUTIAN A A AK WESTERN A A AK INT BSN A B AK S INT A A AK SO COAST A A AK PNHDL B N 8 to 14 day Outlook Table OUTLOOK FOR SEP 26 - OCT 02, 2006 STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN WASHINGTON B A OREGON B A NRN CALIF B N SRN CALIF B N IDAHO B A NEVADA B A W MONTANA B A E MONTANA B A WYOMING B A UTAH B N ARIZONA B N COLORADO N N NEW MEXICO N N N DAKOTA N A S DAKOTA A A NEBRASKA A A KANSAS A N OKLAHOMA A A N TEXAS A N S TEXAS A N W TEXAS N N MINNESOTA A A IOWA A A MISSOURI A A ARKANSAS A A LOUISIANA A N WISCONSIN A A ILLINOIS A A MISSISSIPPI A N MICHIGAN A A INDIANA A A OHIO A A KENTUCKY A A TENNESSEE A N ALABAMA N B NEW YORK B N VERMONT B N NEW HAMP B B MAINE B N MASS B B CONN B B RHODE IS B B PENN N N NEW JERSEY N B W VIRGINIA N N MARYLAND N B DELAWARE N B VIRGINIA N B N CAROLINA N B S CAROLINA N B GEORGIA N B FL PNHDL N B FL PENIN N B AK N SLOPE A B AK ALEUTIAN A A AK WESTERN A A AK INT BSN A B AK S INT A A AK SO COAST A A AK PNHDL B N LEGEND TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN A - ABOVE N - NEAR NORMAL A - ABOVE N - NEAR MEDIAN B - BELOW B - BELOW THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS PMDMRD. $$