PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSIONS FOR 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD 300 PM EDT THU SEP 14 2006 6-10 DAY OUTLOOK VALID FOR SEP 20 - 24 2006 TODAYS NUMERICAL MODELS ARE ONLY IN FAIR AGREEMENT ON THE OVERALL 500-HPA FLOW PATTERN OVER NORTH AMERICA WITH RELATIVELY POOR RUN-TO-RUN CONTINUITY. TODAYS GFS ENSEMBLE MEANS FEATURE A LARGE BROAD TROUGH OVER THE ENTIRE NORTHERN TIER OF THE CONUS. HOWEVER...THE ECMWF MEAN SHOWS TWO DISTINCT LONGWAVE TROUGHS...LOCATED OVER THE WEST AND EAST COASTS RESPECTIVELY. DESPITE THESE DISAGREEMENTS...MOST MODEL SOLUTIONS CONCUR THAT THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE CONUS WILL BE DOMINATED BY BELOW NORMAL 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES FAVORING COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES. AN EXCEPTION IS THE SOUTH-CENTRAL/SOUTHEASTERN CONUS WHERE A WEAK SUBTROPICAL RIDGE EXTENDING ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO MAY BE SUFFICIENT TO LIMIT THE SOUTHWARD PROGRESSION OF THE COOLER THAN NORMAL AIRMASS. FURTHER TO THE NORTH...MUCH OF ALASKA IS FORECAST TO BE SANDWICHED BETWEEN A WEAK TROUGH OVER THE BERING SEA AND A STRONGER TROUGH OVER THE CONUS. THE RESULTANT SOUTHWESTERLY MID-LEVEL FLOW FAVORS ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR MUCH OF THE STATE. THE MEAN STORM TRACK IS EXPECTED TO FAVOR WETTER THAN NORMAL CONDITIONS FOR THE ALEUTIANS...ALASKAN PANHANDLE...AND THE NORTH-CENTRAL CONUS AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY PROGRESSES ALONG THE JET. ANOTHER AREA TO WATCH WILL BE THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS AS MOISTURE FROM TROPICAL STORM LANE MAY AFFECT THE AREA. PLEASE REFER TO THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER (HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV) FOR THE LATEST INFORMATION ON LANE. TODAYS OFFICIAL 500-HPA BLEND CONSISTS OF 15 PERCENT OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8...20 PERCENT OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8...20 PERCENT OF TODAY'S GFS SUPERENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8...AND 45 PERCENT OF TODAY'S EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 7. MODEL(S) OF THE DAY: ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD IS BELOW AVERAGE... 2 ON A SCALE OF 1 TO 5 DUE TO RELATIVELY POOR RUN TO RUN MODEL CONSISTENCY. THE 6-10 DAY TEMPERATURE PROG IS BASED ON THE CPC AUTO FORECAST...THE CDC CALIBRATED FORECAST...AND KLEIN AND ANALOG SPECIFICATIONS FROM THE OFFICIAL BLENDED HEIGHTS. THE 6-10 DAY PRECIPITATION PROG IS BASED ON THE CPC AUTO FORECAST...THE CDC CALIBRATED FORECAST...AND CPC CALIBRATED PRECIPITATION FROM THE GFS ENSEMBLES. 8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR SEP 22 - 28 2006: DURING WEEK 2...THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEANS CONTINUE TO SUPPORT A FAIRLY STRONG BROAD TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN CONUS...ANOTHER WEAKER TROUGH OVER THE BERING SEA...AND A RIDGE OVER THE PACIFIC OCEAN NEAR 150W LONGITUDE. THE MOST SIGNIFICANT CHANGE FROM THE 6 TO 10 DAY TIME FRAME IS THE FORECAST STRENGTHENING OF THE RIDGE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO. THE STRENGTHENING OF THIS RIDGE WOULD FAVOR A WARMING TREND FOR THE GULF COAST STATES AND THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES WOULD STILL BE FAVORED OVER MUCH OF THE WESTERN CONUS AND NORTHEAST UNDER NEGATIVE HEIGHT ANOMALIES. THE FORECAST POSITION OF THE MEAN JET SHOULD SHOULD STILL SUPPORT A STORM TRACK OVER THE ALASKAN PANHANDLE AND ALEUTIANS AS WELL AS THE NORTH-CENTRAL CONUS FAVORING WETTER THAN NORMAL CONDITIONS. WARMER THAN NORMAL CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO BE FAVORED FOR MOST OF INTERIOR ALASKA UNDER MEAN SOUTHWESTERLY MID-LEVEL FLOW. THE OFFICIAL 8-14 DAY HEIGHT PROG CONSISTS OF 30 PERCENT OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11...40 PERCENT OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11...AND 30 PERCENT OF TODAY'S GFS SUPERENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11. FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD IS BELOW AVERAGE TODAY... 2 ON A SCALE OF 1 TO 5. THE 8-14 DAY TEMPERATURE PROG IS BASED ON THE CPC AUTO FORECAST...THE CDC CALIBRATED FORECAST...AND ANALOG SPECIFICATIONS FROM THE OFFICIAL BLENDED HEIGHTS. THE 8-14 DAY PRECIPITATION PROG IS BASED ON THE CPC AUTO FORECAST...THE CDC CALIBRATED FORECAST...AND CPC CALIBRATED PRECIPITATION FROM THE GFS ENSEMBLES. FORECASTER: S. HANDEL NOTES: OPERATIONAL CHANGE: AS OF JULY 5 2005 SHADED MAPS HAVE REPLACED THE CONTOUR-ONLY MAPS ON THE CPC WEB SITE. THE CONTOURED MAPS ARE STILL AVAILABLE AT THEIR CURRENT FILE NAMES - SO DIRECT-LINKED USERS ARE NOT AFFECTED. AWIPS GRAPHICS ARE ALSO NOT AFFECTED BY THIS CHANGE. AUTOMATED FORECASTS ARE ISSUED ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. OTHERWISE - FORECASTS INCORPORATE FORECASTER INPUT. THE NOTATION FOR THE CATEGORICAL FORECAST INDICATED ON THE MAPS IS THE SAME AS THAT IN THE TABLES: A-ABOVE N-NEAR NORMAL B-BELOW IN THE SOUTHWEST AND OTHER CLIMATOLOGICALLY DRY REGIONS - THERE WILL BE A GREATER THAN 33.3% CHANCE OF NO PRECIPITATION AND OCCASIONALLY EVEN A NORMAL (I.E. MEDIAN) VALUE OF ZERO - ESPECIALLY DURING THE DRY SEASONS. IN SUCH CASES A FORECAST OF NEAR NORMAL IS EFFECTIVELY A FORECAST OF LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION. THE NARRATIVE DESCRIPTION OF THE FORECAST PATTERNS FOR TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION FOR BOTH THE 6-10 OR 8-14 DAY PERIODS HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED. THE STATE TABLES FOR BOTH THE 6-10 AND 8-14 DAY PERIODS ARE NOW CONTAINED IN THIS MESSAGE...AVAILABLE AS PMDMRD ON AWIPS. THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER USES 1971-2000 BASE PERIOD MEANS FOR TEMPERATURE...PRECIPITATION...AND 500-HPA HEIGHTS AS REFERENCE IN THE CLIMATE OUTLOOKS. THE NEXT SET OF LONG-LEAD MONTHLY AND SEASONAL OUTLOOKS WILL BE RELEASED ON SEPTEMBER 21. NEW NOTE EFFECTIVE MAR 16 2004: THE GLOSSARY FORMERLY FOUND AT THIS LOCATION WILL NO LONGER BE TRANSMITTED AS PART OF THIS MESSAGE. IF YOU WISH TO SEE THE DEFINITIONS OF TERMS USED IN THESE MESSAGES... PLEASE GO TO THE CPC WEB PAGE AT (USE LOWER CASE) HTTP://WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV AND FOLLOW THE APPROPRIATE LINKS. ANALOGS TO THE 5 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 3 DAYS AGO (D-3) FOR THE REGION FROM 20N to 70N LATITUDE AND 175E to 60W LONGITUDE INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES: 19680829 - 19790910 - 19940904 - 19690907 - 19960918 ANALOGS TO THE 7 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 4 DAYS AGO (D-4) FOR THE REGION FROM 20N to 70N LATITUDE AND 175E to 60W LONGITUDE INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES: 19940904 - 19690907 - 19790909 - 19750925 - 19680829 6 to 10 day Outlook Table OUTLOOK FOR SEP 20 - 24, 2006 STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN WASHINGTON B N OREGON B N NRN CALIF B N SRN CALIF B N IDAHO B A NEVADA B N W MONTANA B A E MONTANA B A WYOMING B A UTAH B A ARIZONA B A COLORADO B A NEW MEXICO N A N DAKOTA B A S DAKOTA B A NEBRASKA B A KANSAS B A OKLAHOMA N N N TEXAS N N S TEXAS A N W TEXAS N A MINNESOTA B A IOWA B A MISSOURI B N ARKANSAS N N LOUISIANA N B WISCONSIN B A ILLINOIS B N MISSISSIPPI N B MICHIGAN B A INDIANA B N OHIO B N KENTUCKY B N TENNESSEE B B ALABAMA N B NEW YORK B N VERMONT B N NEW HAMP B N MAINE B N MASS B N CONN B N RHODE IS B N PENN B B NEW JERSEY B B W VIRGINIA B B MARYLAND B B DELAWARE B B VIRGINIA B B N CAROLINA B B S CAROLINA N B GEORGIA N B FL PNHDL N B FL PENIN A B AK N SLOPE A B AK ALEUTIAN N A AK WESTERN A N AK INT BSN A B AK S INT A N AK SO COAST N N AK PNHDL B A 8 to 14 day Outlook Table OUTLOOK FOR SEP 22 - 28, 2006 STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN WASHINGTON B N OREGON B N NRN CALIF B N SRN CALIF B N IDAHO B N NEVADA B N W MONTANA B A E MONTANA B A WYOMING B A UTAH B N ARIZONA B N COLORADO B A NEW MEXICO N N N DAKOTA B A S DAKOTA B A NEBRASKA N A KANSAS N A OKLAHOMA A A N TEXAS A N S TEXAS A B W TEXAS A N MINNESOTA N A IOWA N A MISSOURI A A ARKANSAS A N LOUISIANA A B WISCONSIN N A ILLINOIS N A MISSISSIPPI A B MICHIGAN N A INDIANA N A OHIO N N KENTUCKY N N TENNESSEE A N ALABAMA A B NEW YORK B N VERMONT B N NEW HAMP B N MAINE B N MASS B N CONN B N RHODE IS B N PENN B N NEW JERSEY B N W VIRGINIA N B MARYLAND B B DELAWARE B B VIRGINIA B B N CAROLINA N B S CAROLINA N B GEORGIA A B FL PNHDL A B FL PENIN A B AK N SLOPE A B AK ALEUTIAN N A AK WESTERN A B AK INT BSN A B AK S INT A B AK SO COAST A N AK PNHDL N A LEGEND TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN A - ABOVE N - NEAR NORMAL A - ABOVE N - NEAR MEDIAN B - BELOW B - BELOW THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS PMDMRD. $$