PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSIONS FOR 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD 300 PM EDT WED SEP 13 2006 6-10 DAY OUTLOOK VALID FOR SEP 19 - 23 2006 TODAY THERE IS ONLY FAIR AGREEMENT IN THE MODEL SOLUTIONS FOR THE 500-HPA PATTERN OVER MUCH OF THE FORECAST DOMAIN WITH TWO PRIMARY PATTERNS REPRESENTED. THE 0Z AND 6Z ENSEMBLE MEAN AND 6Z OPERATIONAL MODELS INDICATE A DOUBLE TROUGH WITH ONE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE NORTHWEST CONUS OFF THE CALIFORNIA COASTLINE INTO THE PACIFIC AND A SECOND WEAKER TROUGH FROM EASTERN CANADA INTO THE ATLANTIC EAST OF THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES. ALTERNATIVELY, THE 0Z OPERATIONAL MODEL AND ECMWF ENSEMBLE AND OPERATIONAL MODELS FAVOR A BROADER SINGLE TROUGH CENTERED OVER THE ENTIRE CONUS. THE MORE AMPLIFIED PATTERN OF THE 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE HAS BEEN FAVORED IN THE BLEND AND OFFICIAL FORECASTS. IN THE GFS ENSEMBLE MODELS A STRONG BLOCK IS INDICATED WITH A POSITIVE 500-HPA ANOMALY OVER NORTHERN CENTRAL CANADA... A NEGATIVE ANOMALY COVERS MUCH OF THE WESTERN CONUS. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CONUS AND OVER THE NORTHERN CENTRAL CONUS IN PARTICULAR ...EXCEPTING THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST... BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO FAVORED IN THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND MID-ATLANTIC STATES... WHERE 500-HPA HEIGHTS ARE BELOW NORMAL. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED IN SOUTHERN TEXAS, THE GULF COAST STATES AND THE SOUTHEAST WHERE NEAR NORMAL HEIGHTS ARE FORECAST. ABOVE MEDIAN PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED AHEAD OF THE WESTERN TROUGH IN THE NORTH CENTRAL PLAINS ... AND SOUTH TO THE GULF COAST AND LOUISIANA... A PACIFIC TROPICAL STORM SYSTEM INDICATED IN MOST OF THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS MAY CONTRIBUTE MOISTURE TO THE SOUTHWEST STATES ... WHILE THE WEST COAST AND SOUTHEAST COASTAL STATES FAVOR BELOW MEDIAN PRECIPITATION. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED OVER ALASKA... IN PARTICULAR NORTH-CENTRAL ALASKA... WHERE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED. ABOVE MEDIAN PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED IN SOUTHWEST ALASKA AND THE ALEUTIANS AHEAD OF A TROUGH THERE ... BELOW MEDIAN PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED FOR EXTREME NORTHERN ALASKA AND THE PANHANDLE. TODAYS OFFICIAL 500-HPA BLEND CONSISTS OF 5 PERCENT OF TODAY'S OPERATIONAL 0Z GFS CENTERED ON DAY 8...10 PERCENT OF TODAY'S OPERATIONAL 6Z GFS CENTERED ON DAY 8...5 PERCENT OF TODAY'S OPERATIONAL ECMWF CENTERED ON DAY 7...20 PERCENT OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8...40 PERCENT OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8...10 PERCENT OF TODAY'S GFS SUPERENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8...AND 10 PERCENT OF TODAY'S EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 7. MODEL(S) OF THE DAY: 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD IS AVERAGE... 3 ON A SCALE OF 1 TO 5 DUE TO GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT OVER MUCH OF THE DOMAIN. THE 6-10 DAY TEMPERATURE PROG IS BASED ON THE CPC AUTO FORECAST...THE CDC CALIBRATED FORECAST...CALIBRATED AND UNCALIBRATED TEMPERATURE FROM THE GFS 0Z ENSEMBLE AND KLEIN AND ANALOG SPECIFICATIONS FROM THE OFFICIAL BLENDED HEIGHTS. THE 6-10 DAY PRECIPITATION PROG IS BASED ON THE CPC AUTO FORECAST...THE CDC CALIBRATED FORECAST...AND CPC CALIBRATED PRECIPITATION FROM THE GFS SUPERENSEMBLE. 8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR SEP 21 - 27 2006: THE FORECAST PATTERN FOR WEEK 2 IS SIMILAR TO THAT DESCRIBED FOR THE 6 TO 10 DAY PERIOD WITH THE EXCEPTION THAT THE OVERALL FEATURES ARE SHIFTED SLIGHTLY TO THE EAST ... ESPECIALLY THE TROUGH EAST OF THE COUNS ... AND THE BLOCK IN 500-HPA HEIGHTS IS WEAKER. AS STATED FOR THE 6-10 DAY FORECAST, THE 0Z OPERATIONAL AND DAVA MODELS REMAIN OUTLIERS INDICATING A BROADER TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS ... THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEANS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH TROUGHS OVER THE WESTERN CONUS ... RIDGING OVER THE ALASKAN PANHANDLE ... WESTERN CANADA ... AND THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. THE 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN THAT INDICATES A MORE AMPLIFIED TROUGH OFF THE U.S. EAST COAST WAS AGAIN FAVORED IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST. THE RESULTANT TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION PATTERNS ARE SIMILAR TO THE 6 TO 10 DAY PERIOD ... WITH GENERALLY LOWER PROBABILITIES ... AND A LARGER AREA OF BELOW MEDIAN PRECIPITATION FOR MUCH OF THE EAST COAST STATES. THE OFFICIAL 8-14 DAY HEIGHT PROG CONSISTS OF 10 PERCENT OF TODAY'S OPERATIONAL 6Z GFS CENTERED ON DAY 11...10 PERCENT OF TODAY'S DAVA CENTERED ON DAY 11...20 PERCENT OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11...40 PERCENT OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11...AND 20 PERCENT OF TODAY'S GFS SUPERENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11. FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD IS AVERAGE TODAY... 3 ON A SCALE OF 1 TO 5. THE 8-14 DAY TEMPERATURE PROG IS BASED ON THE CPC AUTO FORECAST ...THE CDC CALIBRATED FORECAST ...CALIBRATED AND UNCALIBRATED TEMPERATURE FROM THE GFS ENSEMBLES ...AND ANALOG SPECIFICATIONS FROM THE OFFICIAL BLEND. THE 8-14 DAY PRECIPITATION PROG IS BASED ON THE CPC AUTO FORECAST...THE CDC CALIBRATED FORECAST...AND CPC CLAIBRATED PRECIPITATION FROM THE GFS ENSEMBLES. FORECASTER: D. COLLINS NOTES: OPERATIONAL CHANGE: AS OF JULY 5 2005 SHADED MAPS HAVE REPLACED THE CONTOUR-ONLY MAPS ON THE CPC WEB SITE. THE CONTOURED MAPS ARE STILL AVAILABLE AT THEIR CURRENT FILE NAMES - SO DIRECT-LINKED USERS ARE NOT AFFECTED. AWIPS GRAPHICS ARE ALSO NOT AFFECTED BY THIS CHANGE. AUTOMATED FORECASTS ARE ISSUED ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. OTHERWISE - FORECASTS INCORPORATE FORECASTER INPUT. THE NOTATION FOR THE CATEGORICAL FORECAST INDICATED ON THE MAPS IS THE SAME AS THAT IN THE TABLES: A-ABOVE N-NEAR NORMAL B-BELOW IN THE SOUTHWEST AND OTHER CLIMATOLOGICALLY DRY REGIONS - THERE WILL BE A GREATER THAN 33.3% CHANCE OF NO PRECIPITATION AND OCCASIONALLY EVEN A NORMAL (I.E. MEDIAN) VALUE OF ZERO - ESPECIALLY DURING THE DRY SEASONS. IN SUCH CASES A FORECAST OF NEAR NORMAL IS EFFECTIVELY A FORECAST OF LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION. THE NARRATIVE DESCRIPTION OF THE FORECAST PATTERNS FOR TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION FOR BOTH THE 6-10 OR 8-14 DAY PERIODS HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED. THE STATE TABLES FOR BOTH THE 6-10 AND 8-14 DAY PERIODS ARE NOW CONTAINED IN THIS MESSAGE...AVAILABLE AS PMDMRD ON AWIPS. THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER USES 1971-2000 BASE PERIOD MEANS FOR TEMPERATURE...PRECIPITATION...AND 500-HPA HEIGHTS AS REFERENCE IN THE CLIMATE OUTLOOKS. THE NEXT SET OF LONG-LEAD MONTHLY AND SEASONAL OUTLOOKS WILL BE RELEASED ON SEPTEMBER 21. NEW NOTE EFFECTIVE MAR 16 2004: THE GLOSSARY FORMERLY FOUND AT THIS LOCATION WILL NO LONGER BE TRANSMITTED AS PART OF THIS MESSAGE. IF YOU WISH TO SEE THE DEFINITIONS OF TERMS USED IN THESE MESSAGES... PLEASE GO TO THE CPC WEB PAGE AT (USE LOWER CASE) HTTP://WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV AND FOLLOW THE APPROPRIATE LINKS. ANALOGS TO THE 5 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 3 DAYS AGO (D-3) FOR THE REGION FROM 20N to 70N LATITUDE AND 175E to 60W LONGITUDE INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES: 19690907 - 19670901 - 19960918 - 19680827 - 19940904 ANALOGS TO THE 7 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 4 DAYS AGO (D-4) FOR THE REGION FROM 20N to 70N LATITUDE AND 175E to 60W LONGITUDE INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES: 19620924 - 19690907 - 19720826 - 19960831 - 19670901 6 to 10 day Outlook Table OUTLOOK FOR SEP 19 - 23, 2006 STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN WASHINGTON B N OREGON B N NRN CALIF B B SRN CALIF B N IDAHO B N NEVADA B B W MONTANA B A E MONTANA B A WYOMING B N UTAH B N ARIZONA B N COLORADO B N NEW MEXICO N A N DAKOTA B A S DAKOTA B A NEBRASKA B A KANSAS N A OKLAHOMA N A N TEXAS A A S TEXAS A A W TEXAS A N MINNESOTA B A IOWA B A MISSOURI N A ARKANSAS A A LOUISIANA A A WISCONSIN B A ILLINOIS N A MISSISSIPPI A A MICHIGAN B A INDIANA B A OHIO B A KENTUCKY N N TENNESSEE A N ALABAMA A N NEW YORK B A VERMONT B A NEW HAMP B A MAINE N N MASS B A CONN B A RHODE IS B A PENN B A NEW JERSEY B N W VIRGINIA N N MARYLAND B N DELAWARE B N VIRGINIA N N N CAROLINA A B S CAROLINA A B GEORGIA A B FL PNHDL A B FL PENIN A B AK N SLOPE A B AK ALEUTIAN A A AK WESTERN A A AK INT BSN A N AK S INT A A AK SO COAST A A AK PNHDL N B 8 to 14 day Outlook Table OUTLOOK FOR SEP 21 - 27, 2006 STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN WASHINGTON B N OREGON B N NRN CALIF B N SRN CALIF B N IDAHO B N NEVADA B N W MONTANA B N E MONTANA B A WYOMING B A UTAH B N ARIZONA B N COLORADO B A NEW MEXICO B A N DAKOTA B A S DAKOTA B A NEBRASKA B A KANSAS N A OKLAHOMA A A N TEXAS A A S TEXAS A A W TEXAS A A MINNESOTA B A IOWA N A MISSOURI N A ARKANSAS A N LOUISIANA A N WISCONSIN N A ILLINOIS N A MISSISSIPPI A N MICHIGAN N A INDIANA N A OHIO N N KENTUCKY A N TENNESSEE A B ALABAMA A B NEW YORK N B VERMONT N B NEW HAMP N B MAINE N N MASS N B CONN N B RHODE IS N B PENN N B NEW JERSEY N B W VIRGINIA N B MARYLAND N B DELAWARE N B VIRGINIA N B N CAROLINA A B S CAROLINA A B GEORGIA A B FL PNHDL A B FL PENIN A B AK N SLOPE A B AK ALEUTIAN A A AK WESTERN A N AK INT BSN A N AK S INT A A AK SO COAST A A AK PNHDL A N LEGEND TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN A - ABOVE N - NEAR NORMAL A - ABOVE N - NEAR MEDIAN B - BELOW B - BELOW THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS PMDMRD. $$