PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSIONS FOR 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD 300 PM EDT TUE SEP 12 2006 6-10 DAY OUTLOOK VALID FOR SEP 18 - 22 2006 TODAYS MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT IN DEPICTING A MODERATELY AMPLIFIED 500-HPA PATTERN OVER MOST OF THE FORECAST DOMAIN. A SPLIT-FLOW PATTERN IS FORECAST BY THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEANS OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE NORTH AMERICAN CONTINENT WITH MODERATELY STRONG POLAR JET RIDGING OVER WESTERN/CENTRAL CANADA AND A FAIRLY STRONG MID-LATITUDE JET TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. THE POLAR AND MID-LATITUDE JETS ARE FORECAST TO CONVERGE OVER EASTERN NORTH AMERICA UNDERNEATH A POLAR LOW OVER GREENLAND AND ABOVE WEAK TO MODERATE RIDGING OVER THE SOUTH-CENTRAL U.S. THE CANADIAN MEAN IS ONLY IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH THESE OVERALL FEATURES AS IT DEPICTS A MUCH MORE PROGRESSIVE PATTEN WHILE THE ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN WAS UNAVAILABLE. MOST OF TODAYS MODELS FORECAST ANOMALOUS SOUTHWESTERLY MID-LEVEL FLOW ALONG WITH ABOVE NORMAL HEIGHT ANOMALIES OVER MUCH OF ALASKA STRONGLY SUPPORT ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR MOST OF THE STATE. MEANWHILE...FURTHER DOWNSTREAM...COOL CONDITIONS ARE FAVORED FOR THE NORTHWEST CONUS UNDERNEATH THE MEAN 500-HPA TROUGH. ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO ACROSS MUCH OF THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE CONUS...PARTICULARLY THE NORTHERN PLAINS...AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY PROGRESSES ALONG THE MID-LATITUDE JET. A WEAK TO MODERATE RIDGE OVER THE SOUTH-CENTRAL U.S. SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO ALLOW MUCH OF THE SOUTHEAST/GULF COAST TO EXPERIENCE WARMER AND DRIER THAN NORMAL CONDITIONS. THIS WARMTH MAY BE SUPPRESSED OVER THE NORTHEAST IN ASSOCIATION WITH A WEAK TROUGH FORECAST BY THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEANS OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD. TODAYS OFFICIAL 500-HPA BLEND CONSISTS OF 20 PERCENT OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8...40 PERCENT OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8...20 PERCENT OF TODAY'S GFS SUPERENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8...AND 20 PERCENT OF TODAY'S CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8. MODEL(S) OF THE DAY: 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD IS AVERAGE... 3 ON A SCALE OF 1 TO 5 DUE GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT. THE 6-10 DAY TEMPERATURE PROG IS BASED ON THE CPC AUTO FORECAST...THE CDC CALIBRATED FORECAST...AND KLEIN AND ANALOG SPECIFICATIONS FROM THE OFFICIAL BLENDED HEIGHTS. THE 6-10 DAY PRECIPITATION PROG IS BASED ON THE CPC AUTO FORECAST...THE CDC CALIBRATED FORECAST...AND CPC CLAIBRATED PRECIPITATION FROM THE GFS ENSEMBLES. 8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR SEP 20 - 26 2006: THE FORECAST PATTERN FOR WEEK 2 IS SIMILAR TO THAT DESCRIBED FOR THE 6 TO 10 DAY PERIOD WITH THE EXCEPTION THAT THE OVERALL FEATURES ARE SHIFTED SLIGHTLY TO THE EAST AND ARE MARGINALLY LESS AMPLIFIED. THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEANS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH TROUGHS OVER THE NORTHWEST CONUS AND NEAR THE ALEUTIANS AND RIDGING OVER THE ALASKAN PANHANDLE...WESTERN CANADA...AND THE SOUTHEASTERN/SOUTH-CENTRAL U.S. AS WAS THE CASE FOR THE 6 TO 10 DAY PERIOD... THE CANADIAN MEAN... WHICH DEPICTS A BROAD TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS... IS MORE PROGRESSIVE THAN THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEANS. HOWEVER...THE OPERATIONAL 0Z AND 6Z GFS... WHICH HAD BEEN SUPPORTING A MORE PROGRESSIVE SOLUTION YESTERDAY...HAVE REVERTED BACK TO MORE CLOSELY RESEMBLE THEIR RESPECTIVE ENSEMBLE MEANS. THEREFORE...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST RELIES MOST HEAVILY ON THE GFS MEANS WHICH HAVE SHOWN THE BEST DAY TO DAY CONTINUITY. THE RESULTANT TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION PATTERNS ARE VERY SIMILAR TO THE 6 TO 10 DAY PERIOD...ALBEIT WITH LOWER PROBABILITIES. THE OFFICIAL 8-14 DAY HEIGHT PROG CONSISTS OF 20 PERCENT OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11...30 PERCENT OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11...25 PERCENT OF TODAY'S GFS SUPERENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11...AND 25 PERCENT OF TODAY'S CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11. FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD IS AVERAGE TODAY... 3 ON A SCALE OF 1 TO 5. THE 8-14 DAY TEMPERATURE PROG IS BASED ON THE CPC AUTO FORECAST...THE CDC CALIBRATED FORECAST...AND ANALOG SPECIFICATIONS FROM THE OFFICIAL BLENDED HEIGHTS. THE 8-14 DAY PRECIPITATION PROG IS BASED ON THE CPC AUTO FORECAST...THE CDC CALIBRATED FORECAST...AND CPC CLAIBRATED PRECIPITATION FROM THE GFS ENSEMBLES. FORECASTER: S. HANDEL NOTES: OPERATIONAL CHANGE: AS OF JULY 5 2005 SHADED MAPS HAVE REPLACED THE CONTOUR-ONLY MAPS ON THE CPC WEB SITE. THE CONTOURED MAPS ARE STILL AVAILABLE AT THEIR CURRENT FILE NAMES - SO DIRECT-LINKED USERS ARE NOT AFFECTED. AWIPS GRAPHICS ARE ALSO NOT AFFECTED BY THIS CHANGE. AUTOMATED FORECASTS ARE ISSUED ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. OTHERWISE - FORECASTS INCORPORATE FORECASTER INPUT. THE NOTATION FOR THE CATEGORICAL FORECAST INDICATED ON THE MAPS IS THE SAME AS THAT IN THE TABLES: A-ABOVE N-NEAR NORMAL B-BELOW IN THE SOUTHWEST AND OTHER CLIMATOLOGICALLY DRY REGIONS - THERE WILL BE A GREATER THAN 33.3% CHANCE OF NO PRECIPITATION AND OCCASIONALLY EVEN A NORMAL (I.E. MEDIAN) VALUE OF ZERO - ESPECIALLY DURING THE DRY SEASONS. IN SUCH CASES A FORECAST OF NEAR NORMAL IS EFFECTIVELY A FORECAST OF LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION. THE NARRATIVE DESCRIPTION OF THE FORECAST PATTERNS FOR TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION FOR BOTH THE 6-10 OR 8-14 DAY PERIODS HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED. THE STATE TABLES FOR BOTH THE 6-10 AND 8-14 DAY PERIODS ARE NOW CONTAINED IN THIS MESSAGE...AVAILABLE AS PMDMRD ON AWIPS. THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER USES 1971-2000 BASE PERIOD MEANS FOR TEMPERATURE...PRECIPITATION...AND 500-HPA HEIGHTS AS REFERENCE IN THE CLIMATE OUTLOOKS. THE NEXT SET OF LONG-LEAD MONTHLY AND SEASONAL OUTLOOKS WILL BE RELEASED ON SEPTEMBER 21. NEW NOTE EFFECTIVE MAR 16 2004: THE GLOSSARY FORMERLY FOUND AT THIS LOCATION WILL NO LONGER BE TRANSMITTED AS PART OF THIS MESSAGE. IF YOU WISH TO SEE THE DEFINITIONS OF TERMS USED IN THESE MESSAGES... PLEASE GO TO THE CPC WEB PAGE AT (USE LOWER CASE) HTTP://WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV AND FOLLOW THE APPROPRIATE LINKS. ANALOGS TO THE 5 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 3 DAYS AGO (D-3) FOR THE REGION FROM 20N to 70N LATITUDE AND 175E to 60W LONGITUDE INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES: 19620925 - 19670901 - 19690906 - 19940901 - 19720825 ANALOGS TO THE 7 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 4 DAYS AGO (D-4) FOR THE REGION FROM 20N to 70N LATITUDE AND 175E to 60W LONGITUDE INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES: 19620924 - 19670831 - 19720825 - 19950924 - 19960830 6 to 10 day Outlook Table OUTLOOK FOR SEP 18 - 22, 2006 STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN WASHINGTON B N OREGON B N NRN CALIF B B SRN CALIF B N IDAHO B A NEVADA B N W MONTANA B A E MONTANA B A WYOMING B A UTAH B N ARIZONA B N COLORADO B N NEW MEXICO N N N DAKOTA B A S DAKOTA B A NEBRASKA B A KANSAS N N OKLAHOMA A N N TEXAS A N S TEXAS A B W TEXAS A B MINNESOTA B A IOWA B A MISSOURI N A ARKANSAS A N LOUISIANA A B WISCONSIN B A ILLINOIS N A MISSISSIPPI A N MICHIGAN N A INDIANA N A OHIO N N KENTUCKY N N TENNESSEE A N ALABAMA A B NEW YORK N N VERMONT N N NEW HAMP N N MAINE N N MASS N N CONN N N RHODE IS N N PENN A N NEW JERSEY A N W VIRGINIA A B MARYLAND A B DELAWARE A B VIRGINIA A B N CAROLINA A B S CAROLINA A B GEORGIA A B FL PNHDL A B FL PENIN A B AK N SLOPE A B AK ALEUTIAN A A AK WESTERN A N AK INT BSN A B AK S INT A N AK SO COAST A N AK PNHDL N B 8 to 14 day Outlook Table OUTLOOK FOR SEP 20 - 26, 2006 STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN WASHINGTON B N OREGON B N NRN CALIF B N SRN CALIF B N IDAHO B N NEVADA B N W MONTANA B N E MONTANA B A WYOMING B A UTAH B N ARIZONA B N COLORADO B A NEW MEXICO B A N DAKOTA B A S DAKOTA B A NEBRASKA B A KANSAS N A OKLAHOMA A A N TEXAS A N S TEXAS A N W TEXAS A A MINNESOTA B A IOWA N A MISSOURI N A ARKANSAS A N LOUISIANA A B WISCONSIN N A ILLINOIS N A MISSISSIPPI A B MICHIGAN N A INDIANA A A OHIO A N KENTUCKY A N TENNESSEE A N ALABAMA A B NEW YORK A N VERMONT A N NEW HAMP A N MAINE N N MASS A N CONN A N RHODE IS A N PENN A N NEW JERSEY A N W VIRGINIA A N MARYLAND A B DELAWARE A B VIRGINIA A B N CAROLINA A B S CAROLINA A B GEORGIA A B FL PNHDL A B FL PENIN A B AK N SLOPE A B AK ALEUTIAN A A AK WESTERN A N AK INT BSN A N AK S INT A N AK SO COAST A N AK PNHDL A N LEGEND TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN A - ABOVE N - NEAR NORMAL A - ABOVE N - NEAR MEDIAN B - BELOW B - BELOW THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS PMDMRD. $$