PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSIONS FOR 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD 300 PM EDT MON SEP 11 2006 6-10 DAY OUTLOOK VALID FOR SEP 17 - 21 2006 TODAYS NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN DEPICTING A FAIRLY AMPLIFIED 500-HPA PATTERN OVER MOST OF THE FORECAST DOMAIN. A SPLIT-FLOW PATTERN IS FORECAST OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE NORTH AMERICAN CONTINENT WITH MODERATELY STRONG POLAR JET RIDGING OVER WESTERN CANADA WITH A FAIRLY STRONG MID-LATITUDE JET TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. THE POLAR AND MID-LATITUDE JETS ARE FORECAST TO CONVERGE OVER EASTERN NORTH AMERICA UNDERNEATH A POLAR LOW OVER EASTERN CANADA AND ABOVE MODERATE RIDGING OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. ANOMALOUS SOUTHERLY MID-LEVEL FLOW ALONG WITH FORECAST ABOVE NORMAL HEIGHT ANOMALIES STRONGLY SUPPORT ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR ALASKA...ESPECIALLY FOR INTERIOR LOCATIONS. MEANWHILE...FURTHER DOWNSTREAM...COOL AND WET CONDITIONS ARE FAVORED FOR THE NORTHWEST CONUS UNDERNEATH THE MEAN 500-HPA TROUGH. ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS ALSO EXPECTED TO SPREAD EASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE U.S. AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY PROGRESSES ALONG THE MID-LATITUDE JET. A WEAK TO MODERATE RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S. SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO FORCE THE MID LATITUDE JET NORTHWARD OVER EASTERN NORTH AMERICA WHICH WOULD ALLOW MUCH OF THE EAST AND GULF COASTS TO EXPERIENCE WARMER AND DRIER THAN NORMAL CONDITIONS. TODAYS OFFICIAL 500-HPA BLEND CONSISTS OF 10 PERCENT OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8...40 PERCENT OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8...10 PERCENT OF TODAY'S GFS SUPERENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8...AND 40 PERCENT OF TODAY'S EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 7. MODEL(S) OF THE DAY: 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN AND 12Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD IS ABOVE AVERAGE... 4 ON A SCALE OF 1 TO 5 DUE GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT. THE 6-10 DAY TEMPERATURE PROG IS BASED ON THE CPC AUTO FORECAST...THE CDC CALIBRATED FORECAST...AND KLEIN AND ANALOG SPECIFICATIONS FROM THE OFFICIAL BLENDED HEIGHTS. THE 6-10 DAY PRECIPITATION PROG IS BASED ON THE CPC AUTO FORECAST...THE CDC CALIBRATED FORECAST...AND CPC CLAIBRATED PRECIPITATION FROM THE GFS ENSEMBLES. 8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR SEP 19 - 25 2006: THE FORECAST PATTERN FOR WEEK 2 IS SIMILAR TO THAT DESCRIBED FOR THE 6 TO 10 DAY PERIOD WITH THE EXCEPTION THAT THE OVERALL FEATURES ARE GENERALLY LESS AMPLIFIED. THIS REDUCED AMPLIFICATION IS MAINLY DUE TO THE LARGER ENSEMBLE SPREAD AND LARGER UNCERTAINTIES INHERENT TO WEEK 2 FORECASTS. NEVERTHELESS THE ENSEMBLE MEANS FROM THE GFS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH TROUGHS OVER THE NORTHWEST CONUS AND NEAR THE ALEUTIANS AND RIDGING OVER WESTERN CANADA AND THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE OPERATIONAL 0Z AND 6Z GFS ARE MORE PROGRESSIVE THAN THEIR RESPECTIVE MEANS AND SHIFT THE MAIN FEATURES SIGNIFICANTLY FURTHER TO THE EAST. TOMORROWS SUITE OF GFS ENSEMBLES WILL HAVE TO BE CAREFULLY WATCHED TO SEE IF THIS MODEL TREND BECOMES MORE FIRMLY ESTABLISHED. FOR NOW...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST RELIES EXCLUSIVELY ON THE GFS MEANS WITH RESULTANT TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION PATTERNS VERY SIMILAR TO THE 6 TO 10 DAY PERIOD...ALBEIT WITH LOWER PROBABILITIES. THE OFFICIAL 8-14 DAY HEIGHT PROG CONSISTS OF 30 PERCENT OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11...50 PERCENT OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11...AND 20 PERCENT OF TODAY'S GFS SUPERENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11. FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD IS AVERAGE TODAY... 3 ON A SCALE OF 1 TO 5. THE 8-14 DAY TEMPERATURE PROG IS BASED ON THE CPC AUTO FORECAST...THE CDC CALIBRATED FORECAST...AND ANALOG SPECIFICATIONS FROM THE OFFICIAL BLENDED HEIGHTS. THE 8-14 DAY PRECIPITATION PROG IS BASED ON THE CPC AUTO FORECAST...THE CDC CALIBRATED FORECAST...AND CPC CLAIBRATED PRECIPITATION FROM THE GFS ENSEMBLES. FORECASTER: S. HANDEL NOTES: OPERATIONAL CHANGE: AS OF JULY 5 2005 SHADED MAPS HAVE REPLACED THE CONTOUR-ONLY MAPS ON THE CPC WEB SITE. THE CONTOURED MAPS ARE STILL AVAILABLE AT THEIR CURRENT FILE NAMES - SO DIRECT-LINKED USERS ARE NOT AFFECTED. AWIPS GRAPHICS ARE ALSO NOT AFFECTED BY THIS CHANGE. AUTOMATED FORECASTS ARE ISSUED ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. OTHERWISE - FORECASTS INCORPORATE FORECASTER INPUT. THE NOTATION FOR THE CATEGORICAL FORECAST INDICATED ON THE MAPS IS THE SAME AS THAT IN THE TABLES: A-ABOVE N-NEAR NORMAL B-BELOW IN THE SOUTHWEST AND OTHER CLIMATOLOGICALLY DRY REGIONS - THERE WILL BE A GREATER THAN 33.3% CHANCE OF NO PRECIPITATION AND OCCASIONALLY EVEN A NORMAL (I.E. MEDIAN) VALUE OF ZERO - ESPECIALLY DURING THE DRY SEASONS. IN SUCH CASES A FORECAST OF NEAR NORMAL IS EFFECTIVELY A FORECAST OF LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION. THE NARRATIVE DESCRIPTION OF THE FORECAST PATTERNS FOR TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION FOR BOTH THE 6-10 OR 8-14 DAY PERIODS HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED. THE STATE TABLES FOR BOTH THE 6-10 AND 8-14 DAY PERIODS ARE NOW CONTAINED IN THIS MESSAGE...AVAILABLE AS PMDMRD ON AWIPS. THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER USES 1971-2000 BASE PERIOD MEANS FOR TEMPERATURE...PRECIPITATION...AND 500-HPA HEIGHTS AS REFERENCE IN THE CLIMATE OUTLOOKS. THE NEXT SET OF LONG-LEAD MONTHLY AND SEASONAL OUTLOOKS WILL BE RELEASED ON SEPTEMBER 21. NEW NOTE EFFECTIVE MAR 16 2004: THE GLOSSARY FORMERLY FOUND AT THIS LOCATION WILL NO LONGER BE TRANSMITTED AS PART OF THIS MESSAGE. IF YOU WISH TO SEE THE DEFINITIONS OF TERMS USED IN THESE MESSAGES... PLEASE GO TO THE CPC WEB PAGE AT (USE LOWER CASE) HTTP://WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV AND FOLLOW THE APPROPRIATE LINKS. ANALOGS TO THE 5 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 3 DAYS AGO (D-3) FOR THE REGION FROM 20N to 70N LATITUDE AND 175E to 60W LONGITUDE INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES: 19620924 - 19950925 - 19670831 - 19880905 - 19940901 ANALOGS TO THE 7 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 4 DAYS AGO (D-4) FOR THE REGION FROM 20N to 70N LATITUDE AND 175E to 60W LONGITUDE INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES: 19620924 - 19950924 - 19670831 - 19570821 - 19880904 6 to 10 day Outlook Table OUTLOOK FOR SEP 17 - 21, 2006 STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN WASHINGTON B A OREGON B A NRN CALIF B N SRN CALIF B N IDAHO B A NEVADA B N W MONTANA B A E MONTANA B A WYOMING B A UTAH B N ARIZONA B N COLORADO B N NEW MEXICO N N N DAKOTA B A S DAKOTA B A NEBRASKA B A KANSAS N N OKLAHOMA A N N TEXAS A N S TEXAS A B W TEXAS A N MINNESOTA N A IOWA N A MISSOURI A A ARKANSAS A N LOUISIANA A B WISCONSIN N A ILLINOIS A A MISSISSIPPI A B MICHIGAN A N INDIANA A N OHIO A N KENTUCKY A N TENNESSEE A N ALABAMA A B NEW YORK A B VERMONT A B NEW HAMP A B MAINE A B MASS A B CONN A B RHODE IS A B PENN A B NEW JERSEY A B W VIRGINIA A B MARYLAND A B DELAWARE A B VIRGINIA A B N CAROLINA A B S CAROLINA A B GEORGIA A B FL PNHDL A B FL PENIN A B AK N SLOPE A B AK ALEUTIAN A A AK WESTERN A A AK INT BSN A B AK S INT A N AK SO COAST A A AK PNHDL N B 8 to 14 day Outlook Table OUTLOOK FOR SEP 19 - 25, 2006 STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN WASHINGTON B N OREGON B N NRN CALIF B N SRN CALIF B N IDAHO B N NEVADA B N W MONTANA B A E MONTANA B A WYOMING B N UTAH B N ARIZONA B N COLORADO B N NEW MEXICO N N N DAKOTA B A S DAKOTA B A NEBRASKA B A KANSAS N A OKLAHOMA N A N TEXAS A N S TEXAS A N W TEXAS A N MINNESOTA B A IOWA N A MISSOURI N A ARKANSAS A N LOUISIANA A N WISCONSIN N A ILLINOIS N A MISSISSIPPI A N MICHIGAN N A INDIANA N A OHIO A N KENTUCKY A N TENNESSEE A N ALABAMA A B NEW YORK A N VERMONT A N NEW HAMP A N MAINE A N MASS A B CONN A B RHODE IS A B PENN A N NEW JERSEY A B W VIRGINIA A N MARYLAND A B DELAWARE A B VIRGINIA A B N CAROLINA A B S CAROLINA A B GEORGIA A B FL PNHDL A B FL PENIN A B AK N SLOPE A B AK ALEUTIAN A A AK WESTERN A N AK INT BSN A B AK S INT A N AK SO COAST A N AK PNHDL A N LEGEND TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN A - ABOVE N - NEAR NORMAL A - ABOVE N - NEAR MEDIAN B - BELOW B - BELOW THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS PMDMRD. $$