PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSIONS FOR 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD 300 PM EDT FRI SEP 08 2006 6-10 DAY OUTLOOK VALID FOR SEP 14 - 18 2006 TODAYS 0Z GFS AND ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLUTIONS ARE IN ONLY FAIR AGREEMENT ON THE EXPECTED 500-HPA HEIGHT PATTERN OVER NORTH AMERICA. THE CONUS IS EXPECTED TO BE DOMINATED BY A MOSTLY ZONAL FLOW PATTERN WITH VERY WEAK SHORT WAVE FEATURES EMBEDDED WITHIN IT. A SOUTHERN EXTENTION OF THE POLAR VORTEX IS PROGGED TO BE WEST OF ALASKA WHILE A RIDGE IS FORECAST OVER THE EASTERN PART OF THE STATE. THE 0Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN IS MORE AMPLIFIED WITH THE RIDGE FORECAST TO BE OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA AND THE DOWNSTREAM TROUGH JUST INLAND OF THE WEST COAST COMPARED TO THE ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN. THERE ARE ALSO TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH RESPECT TO INDIVIDUAL SHORTWAVE FEATURES MOVING THROUGH THE ZONAL FLOW FORCAST OVER THE CONUS. THE OPERATIONAL 0Z AND 6Z GFS AND 12Z OPERATIONAL ECMWF ARE MORE AMPLIFIED AND PROGRESSIVE THAN THEIR RESPECTIVE ENSEMBLE MEANS. THE DAVA SEEMS LIKE A GOOD COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE MORE AMPLIFIED AND PROGRESSIVE OPERATIONAL SOLUTIONS AND THE FLATTER AND SLOWER ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLUTIONS. THE ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN AND GFS SUPERENSEMBLE MEAN WERE NOT AVAILABLE FOR USE IN THE BLENDED HEIGHT FIELD FOR THE 6-10 DAY FORECAST. IN GENERAL 500-HPA HEIGHTS ARE PROGGED TO BE NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL OVER THE WEST/CENTRAL CONUS AND NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL ALONG THE EAST AND WEST COASTS AND ALL OF ALASKA. NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATED OVER THE EAST COAST AND ALASKA UNDER THE AREAS OF ABOVE NORMAL HEIGHTS AND BELOW NORMAL OVER THE NORTHWEST CONUS UNDER THE AREA OF BELOW NORMAL HEIGHTS. PRECIPITATION OVER MUCH THE SOUTHEAST IS EXPECTED TO BE ABOVE NORMAL DUE TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE WEAK EASTERN TROUGH. NORTHWEST ALASKA IS LIKELY TO HAVE ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION AHEAD OF THE DEEP TROUGH FORECAST JUST TO THE WEST OF THE STATE. TODAYS OFFICIAL 500-HPA BLEND CONSISTS OF 10 PERCENT OF TODAY'S OPERATIONAL 0Z GFS CENTERED ON DAY 8...15 PERCENT OF TODAY'S OPERATIONAL 6Z GFS CENTERED ON DAY 8...15 PERCENT OF TODAY'S OPERATIONAL ECMWF CENTERED ON DAY 7...20 PERCENT OF TODAY'S DAVA CENTERED ON DAY 8...AND 40 PERCENT OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8. MODEL(S) OF THE DAY: 0Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD IS BELOW AVERAGE... 2 ON A SCALE OF 1 TO 5 DUE TO ONLY FAIR MODEL AGREEMENT AND LARGE SPREAD AMONG THE ENSEMBLE MEMBERS. THE 6-10 DAY TEMPERATURE PROG IS BASED ON THE KLEIN... NEURAL NET... AND ANALOG SPECIFICATIONS FROM THE OFFICIAL BLEND... 850-HPA BIAS CORRECTED TEMPERATURES FROM THE 0Z OPERATIONAL GFS... UNCALIBRATED AND CALIBRATED 2-METER TEMPERATURES FROM THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN... THE CDC TEMPERATURE REFORECAST TOOL... AND THE CPC AUTO TEMPERATURE FORECAST. THE 6-10 DAY PRECIPITATION PROG IS BASED ON THE ANALOG AND NEURAL NET SPECIFICATIONS FROM THE OFFICIAL BLEND... EMC CALIBRATED PRECIPITATION PERCENTAGES FROM THE GFS ENSEMBLE... CALIBRATED PRECIPITATION FROM THE 0Z OPERATIONAL GFS AND 0Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN... THE CDC PRECIPITATION REFORECAST TOOL... AND THE CPC AUTO PRECIPITATION FORECAST. 8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR SEP 16 - 22 2006: FOR WEEK 2 THE GFS SUPERENSEMBLE MEAN FORECASTS A SLIGHT DEAMPLIFICATION TO THE FLOW PATTERN FROM THAT FORECAST FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD BUT OTHERWISE VERY LITTLE CHANGE. MOST OF THE CONUS IS FORECAST TO BE DOMINATED BY ZONAL FLOW WITH WEAK TROUGHS NEAR THE GREAT LAKES AND JUST INLAND OF THE WEST COAST AND A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE DOMINATING THE GULF COAST STATES. A TROUGH IS PROGGED TO BE NORTHWEST OF ALASKA WHILE A RIDGE IS FORECAST OVER THE EASTERN PART OF THE STATE.THE 0Z AND 6Z OPERATIONAL GFS DEPICT A MORE AMPLIFIED PATTERN COMPARED TO THE ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLUTIONS BUT THE OPERATIONAL RUNS SHOW DIFFERENCES BETWEEN EACH OTHER IN THE HANDLING OF INDIVIDUAL SHORTWAVE FEATURES. THE DAVA IS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE GFS SUPERENSEMBLE MEAN. IN GENERAL THE MODELS INDICATE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL HEIGHTS ACROSS MOST OF THE CONUS AND ALASKA... EXCEPT SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL HEIGHTS WHICH ARE INDICATED FOR THE PARTS OF THE WESTERN CONUS AND THE ALEUTIANS. THE HEIGHT ANOMALY FIELD OVER THE ENTIRE CONUS SHOWS ONLY VERY SMALL DEPARTURES FROM NORMAL WHICH CONTRIBUTES UNCERTAINTY TO THE ALREADY LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST. THE OFFICIAL 8-14 DAY HEIGHT PROG CONSISTS OF 5 PERCENT OF TODAY'S OPERATIONAL 0Z GFS CENTERED ON DAY 11...10 PERCENT OF TODAY'S OPERATIONAL 6Z GFS CENTERED ON DAY 11...15 PERCENT OF TODAY'S DAVA CENTERED ON DAY 11...15 PERCENT OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11...15 PERCENT OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11...AND 40 PERCENT OF TODAY'S GFS SUPERENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11. FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD IS MUCH BELOW AVERAGE TODAY... 1 ON A SCALE OF 1 TO 5... DUE TO ONLY FAIR MODEL AGREEMENT... FAIR TO POOR AGREEMENT AMONG THE FORECAST TOOLS... WEAK 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALY FIELDS... AND LARGE SPREAD AMONG THE ENSEMBLE MEMBERS. THE 8-14 DAY TEMPERATURE PROG IS BASED ON THE KLEIN... NEURAL NET... AND ANALOG SPECIFICATIONS FROM THE OFFICIAL BLEND... BIAS-CORRECTED 850-HPA TEMPERATURES FROM THE OPERATIONAL 0Z GFS... THE UNCALIBRATED AND CALIBRATED 2-METER TEMPERATURES FROM THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEANAND THE CPC AUTO TEMPERATURE FORECAST. THE 8-14 DAY PRECIPITATION PROG IS BASED ON THE ANALOG AND NEURAL NET SPECIFICATIONS FROM THE OFFICIAL BLEND... THE CPC AND EMC CALIBRATED PRECIPITATION PERCENTAGES FROM THE GFS ENSEMBLE... CALIBRATED PRECIPITATION FROM THE 6Z OPERATIONAL GFS AND 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN... THE CDCPRECIPITATON AND THE CPC AUTO PRECIPITATION FORECAST. FORECASTER: R. SCHECHTER NOTES: OPERATIONAL CHANGE: AS OF JULY 5 2005 SHADED MAPS HAVE REPLACED THE CONTOUR-ONLY MAPS ON THE CPC WEB SITE. THE CONTOURED MAPS ARE STILL AVAILABLE AT THEIR CURRENT FILE NAMES - SO DIRECT-LINKED USERS ARE NOT AFFECTED. AWIPS GRAPHICS ARE ALSO NOT AFFECTED BY THIS CHANGE. AUTOMATED FORECASTS ARE ISSUED ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. OTHERWISE - FORECASTS INCORPORATE FORECASTER INPUT. THE NOTATION FOR THE CATEGORICAL FORECAST INDICATED ON THE MAPS IS THE SAME AS THAT IN THE TABLES: A-ABOVE N-NEAR NORMAL B-BELOW IN THE SOUTHWEST AND OTHER CLIMATOLOGICALLY DRY REGIONS - THERE WILL BE A GREATER THAN 33.3% CHANCE OF NO PRECIPITATION AND OCCASIONALLY EVEN A NORMAL (I.E. MEDIAN) VALUE OF ZERO - ESPECIALLY DURING THE DRY SEASONS. IN SUCH CASES A FORECAST OF NEAR NORMAL IS EFFECTIVELY A FORECAST OF LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION. THE NARRATIVE DESCRIPTION OF THE FORECAST PATTERNS FOR TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION FOR BOTH THE 6-10 OR 8-14 DAY PERIODS HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED. THE STATE TABLES FOR BOTH THE 6-10 AND 8-14 DAY PERIODS ARE NOW CONTAINED IN THIS MESSAGE...AVAILABLE AS PMDMRD ON AWIPS. THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER USES 1971-2000 BASE PERIOD MEANS FOR TEMPERATURE...PRECIPITATION...AND 500-HPA HEIGHTS AS REFERENCE IN THE CLIMATE OUTLOOKS. THE NEXT SET OF LONG-LEAD MONTHLY AND SEASONAL OUTLOOKS WILL BE RELEASED ON SEPTEMBER 21. NEW NOTE EFFECTIVE MAR 16 2004: THE GLOSSARY FORMERLY FOUND AT THIS LOCATION WILL NO LONGER BE TRANSMITTED AS PART OF THIS MESSAGE. IF YOU WISH TO SEE THE DEFINITIONS OF TERMS USED IN THESE MESSAGES... PLEASE GO TO THE CPC WEB PAGE AT (USE LOWER CASE) HTTP://WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV AND FOLLOW THE APPROPRIATE LINKS. ANALOGS TO THE 5 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 3 DAYS AGO (D-3) FOR THE REGION FROM 20N to 70N LATITUDE AND 175E to 60W LONGITUDE INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES: 19570821 - 19960830 - 19670830 - 19820922 - 19520922 ANALOGS TO THE 7 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 4 DAYS AGO (D-4) FOR THE REGION FROM 20N to 70N LATITUDE AND 175E to 60W LONGITUDE INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES: 19530909 - 19670830 - 19690909 - 19960830 - 19880903 6 to 10 day Outlook Table OUTLOOK FOR SEP 14 - 18, 2006 STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN WASHINGTON B B OREGON B B NRN CALIF N N SRN CALIF N N IDAHO B N NEVADA N N W MONTANA B N E MONTANA B N WYOMING B N UTAH B N ARIZONA N N COLORADO B N NEW MEXICO N N N DAKOTA B A S DAKOTA B A NEBRASKA B N KANSAS B N OKLAHOMA B N N TEXAS N A S TEXAS N N W TEXAS N N MINNESOTA B A IOWA B A MISSOURI N A ARKANSAS N A LOUISIANA N A WISCONSIN N A ILLINOIS N A MISSISSIPPI N A MICHIGAN N A INDIANA N A OHIO N A KENTUCKY N A TENNESSEE N A ALABAMA N A NEW YORK A N VERMONT A N NEW HAMP A B MAINE A B MASS A N CONN A N RHODE IS A N PENN N A NEW JERSEY A N W VIRGINIA N A MARYLAND A A DELAWARE A A VIRGINIA N A N CAROLINA N A S CAROLINA N A GEORGIA N A FL PNHDL N A FL PENIN A N AK N SLOPE A N AK ALEUTIAN A A AK WESTERN A A AK INT BSN A N AK S INT A B AK SO COAST A B AK PNHDL A B 8 to 14 day Outlook Table OUTLOOK FOR SEP 16 - 22, 2006 STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN WASHINGTON A N OREGON A N NRN CALIF A N SRN CALIF A N IDAHO N N NEVADA A N W MONTANA N A E MONTANA B A WYOMING B A UTAH N N ARIZONA N N COLORADO B N NEW MEXICO N N N DAKOTA B A S DAKOTA B A NEBRASKA B A KANSAS B N OKLAHOMA N N N TEXAS N N S TEXAS N N W TEXAS N N MINNESOTA B A IOWA B A MISSOURI B N ARKANSAS N N LOUISIANA N N WISCONSIN B N ILLINOIS B N MISSISSIPPI N N MICHIGAN B N INDIANA B N OHIO N N KENTUCKY N N TENNESSEE N B ALABAMA N B NEW YORK N B VERMONT N B NEW HAMP N B MAINE N B MASS N B CONN N B RHODE IS N B PENN N B NEW JERSEY N B W VIRGINIA N B MARYLAND A B DELAWARE A B VIRGINIA A B N CAROLINA A B S CAROLINA A B GEORGIA A B FL PNHDL A B FL PENIN N B AK N SLOPE A N AK ALEUTIAN N A AK WESTERN A A AK INT BSN A N AK S INT A A AK SO COAST A A AK PNHDL A N LEGEND TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN A - ABOVE N - NEAR NORMAL A - ABOVE N - NEAR MEDIAN B - BELOW B - BELOW THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS PMDMRD. $$