PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSIONS FOR 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD 300 PM EDT THU SEP 07 2006 6-10 DAY OUTLOOK VALID FOR SEP 13 - 17 2006 TODAYS 0Z GFS AND CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLUTIONS ARE IN ONLY FAIR AGREEMENT ON THE EXPECTED 500-HPA HEIGHT PATTERN OVER NORTH AMERICA. THE CONUS IS EXPECTED TO BE DOMINATED BY A MOSTLY ZONAL FLOW PATTERN WITH VERY WEAK SHORT WAVE FEATURES EMBEDDED WITHIN IT. A SOUTHERN EXTENTION OF THE POLAR VORTEX IS PROGGED TO APPROACH WESTERN ALASKA WHILE A RIDGE IS FORECAST JUST EAST OF THE STATE. THE CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN DEPICTS HIGHER HEIGHTS OVER THE CONUS COMPARED TO THE 0Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN. THE ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN WAS UNAVAILABLE AND THE GFS SUPERENSEMBLE MEAN WAS LATE AND NOT AVAILABLE FOR THE 6-10 DAY FORECAST. THE RECENT GFS AND ECMWF OPERATIONAL SOLUTIONS DO NOT AGREE WELL WITH EACH OTHER OR WITH THE AVAILABLE ENSEMBLE MEANS AS TIMING AND AMPLITUDE DIFFERENCES OCCUR FOR INDIVIDUAL SHORTWAVE FEATURES MOVING THROUGH THE ZONAL FLOW. THE DAVA IS FAIRLY SIMILAR TO THE 0Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN. IN GENERAL 500-HPA HEIGHTS ARE PROGGED TO BE NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CONUS AND NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL ACROSS THE NORTHERN PART OF THE COUNTRY. HEIGHTS OVER NORTHWESTERN ALASKA ARE EXPECTED TO BE BELOW NORMAL WHILE MOST OF THE REST OF THE STATE IS PROGGED TO HAVE ABOVE NORMAL HEIGHTS. GIVEN THE RELATIVELY POOR AGREEMENT AMONG THE OPERATIONAL MODELS AND THE LARGE SPREAD AMONG THE ENSEMBLE MEMBERS TODAYS BLEND WILL BE HEAVILY WEIGHTED TOWARDS THE ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLUTIONS AND CONFIDENCE IN TODAYS FORECAST IS VERY LOW. NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATED OVER THE NORTHERN U.S. FROM THE ROCKIES EASTWARD UNDER THE AREA OF ABOVE NORMAL HEIGHTS AND NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL OVER MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN CONUS UNDER THE AREA OF SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL HEIGHTS. ALL OF ALASKA EXCEPT THE NORTHWESTERN PART OF THE STATE IS FORECAST TO HAVE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AS HEIGHTS ARE PROGGGED TO BE ABOVE OVER MOST OF THAT AREA. PRECIPITATION OVER THE SOUTHEAST IS EXPECTED TO BE ABOVE NORMAL DUE TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE WEAK EASTERN TROUGH. NORTHERN ALASKA IS LIKELY TO HAVE ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION AHEAD OF THE DEEP TROUGH FORECAST JUST TO THE WEST OF THE STATE. TODAYS OFFICIAL 500-HPA BLEND CONSISTS OF 10 PERCENT OF TODAY'S OPERATIONAL 0Z GFS CENTERED ON DAY 8...10 PERCENT OF TODAY'S OPERATIONAL 6Z GFS CENTERED ON DAY 8...5 PERCENT OF TODAY'S OPERATIONAL ECMWF CENTERED ON DAY 7...10 PERCENT OF TODAY'S DAVA CENTERED ON DAY 8...40 PERCENT OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8...AND 25 PERCENT OF TODAY'S CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8. MODEL(S) OF THE DAY: 0Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD IS MUCH BELOW AVERAGE ... 1 ON A SCALE OF 1 TO 5 DUE TO POOR MODEL AGREEMENT...ONLY FAIR AGREEMENT AMONG THE FORECAST TOOLS... AND LARGE SPREAD AMONG THE ENSEMBLE MEMBERS. THE 6-10 DAY TEMPERATURE PROG IS BASED ON THE KLEIN AND NEURAL NET SPECIFICATIONS FROM THE OFFICIAL BLEND... 850-HPA BIAS CORRECTED TEMPERATURES FROM THE 0Z OPERATIONAL GFS AND UNCALIBRATED AND CALIBRATED 2-METER TEMPERATURES FROM THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN. THE CDC TEMPERATURE REFORECAST TOOL WAS UNAVAILABLE. THE 6-10 DAY PRECIPITATION PROG IS BASED ON THE ANALOG AND NEURAL NET SPECIFICATIONS FROM THE OFFICIAL BLEND... EMC CALIBRATED PRECIPITATION PERCENTAGES FROM THE GFS ENSEMBLE... AND CALIBRATED PRECIPITATION FROM THE 0Z OPERATIONAL GFS AND 0Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN. THE CDC PRECIPITATION REFORECAST TOOL WAS UNAVAILABLE. 8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR SEP 15 - 21 2006: FOR WEEK 2 THE GFS SUPERENSEMBLE MEAN FORECASTS A SLIGHT DEAMPLIFICATION TO THE FLOW PATTERN FROM THAT FORECAST FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD BUT OTHERWISE VERY LITTLE CHANGE. MOST OF THE CONUS IS FORECAST TO BE DOMINATED BY ZONAL FLOW WITH WEAK TROUGHS OVER THE EAST/CENTRAL CONUS AND JUST INLAND OF THE WEST COAST AND A WEAK RIDGE OVER THE WEST/CENTRAL CONUS. A WEAK SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IS FORECAST TO DOMINATE THE GULF COAST STATES. A TROUGH IS PROGGED TO BE APPRACHING NORTHWEST ALASKA WHILE A RIDGE IS FORECAST OVER THE EASTERN PART OF THE STATE. THE 0Z AND 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEANS... CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN AND DAVA AGREE FAIRLY WELL WITH THE GFS SUPERENSEMBLE SOLUTION. THE 0Z AND 6Z OPERATIONAL GFS DEPICT A MUCH MORE AMPLIFIED PATTERN COMPARED TO THE ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLUTIONS BUT THE OPERATIONAL RUNS SHOW LARGE DIFFERENCES BETWEEN EACH OTHER AND ONLY SHOW AGREEMENT ON THE IDEA OF AN AMPLIFIED RIDGE BUILING OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA. FOR THIS REASON TODAYS BLENDED HEIGHT FIELD FOR THE WEEK 2 PERIOD WILL BE HEAVILY WEIGHTED TOWARDS THE ENSEMBLE MEANS SOLUTIONS. IN GENERAL THE MODELS INDICATE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL HEIGHTS ACROSS MOST OF THE CONUS AND ALASKA... EXCEPT SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL HEIGHTS ARE INDICATED FOR THE SOUTHEAST AND NORTHWEST CONUS AND EXTREME NORTHWEST ALASKA. THE HEIGHT ANOMALY FIELD OVER THE ENTIRE CONUS SHOWS ONLY VERY SMALL DEPARTURES FROM NORMAL WHICH CONTRIBUTES UNCERTAINTY TO THE ALREADY LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST. THE OFFICIAL 8-14 DAY HEIGHT PROG CONSISTS OF 5 PERCENT OF TODAY'S OPERATIONAL 0Z GFS CENTERED ON DAY 11...5 PERCENT OF TODAY'S OPERATIONAL 6Z GFS CENTERED ON DAY 11...10 PERCENT OF TODAY'S DAVA CENTERED ON DAY 11...15 PERCENT OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11...15 PERCENT OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11...35 PERCENT OF TODAY'S GFS SUPERENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11...AND 15 PERCENT OF TODAY'S CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11. FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD IS MUCH BELOW AVERAGE TODAY... 1 ON A SCALE OF 1 TO 5... DUE TO ONLY FAIR MODEL AGREEMENT... POOR AGREEMENT AMONG THE FORECAST TOOLS AND WEAK 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALY FIELDS. THE 8-14 DAY TEMPERATURE PROG IS BASED ON THE KLEIN... NEURAL NET... AND ANALOG SPECIFICATIONS FROM THE OFFICIAL BLEND... BIAS-CORRECTED 850-HPA TEMPERATURES FROM THE OPERATIONAL 0Z GFS... THE KLEIN AND NEURAL NET PROBABILITIES FROM THE GFS ENSEMBLE AND THE UNCALIBRATED AND CALIBRATED 2-METER TEMPERATURES FROM THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN. THE 8-14 DAY PRECIPITATION PROG IS BASED ON THE ANALOG AND NEURAL NET SPECIFICATIONS FROM THE OFFICIAL BLEND... THE EMC CALIBRATED PRECIPITATION PERCENTAGES FROM THE GFS ENSEMBLE... AND CALIBRATED PRECIPITATION FROM THE 0Z OPERATIONAL GFS AND 0Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN. FORECASTER: R. SCHECHTER NOTES: OPERATIONAL CHANGE: AS OF JULY 5 2005 SHADED MAPS HAVE REPLACED THE CONTOUR-ONLY MAPS ON THE CPC WEB SITE. THE CONTOURED MAPS ARE STILL AVAILABLE AT THEIR CURRENT FILE NAMES - SO DIRECT-LINKED USERS ARE NOT AFFECTED. AWIPS GRAPHICS ARE ALSO NOT AFFECTED BY THIS CHANGE. AUTOMATED FORECASTS ARE ISSUED ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. OTHERWISE - FORECASTS INCORPORATE FORECASTER INPUT. THE NOTATION FOR THE CATEGORICAL FORECAST INDICATED ON THE MAPS IS THE SAME AS THAT IN THE TABLES: A-ABOVE N-NEAR NORMAL B-BELOW IN THE SOUTHWEST AND OTHER CLIMATOLOGICALLY DRY REGIONS - THERE WILL BE A GREATER THAN 33.3% CHANCE OF NO PRECIPITATION AND OCCASIONALLY EVEN A NORMAL (I.E. MEDIAN) VALUE OF ZERO - ESPECIALLY DURING THE DRY SEASONS. IN SUCH CASES A FORECAST OF NEAR NORMAL IS EFFECTIVELY A FORECAST OF LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION. THE NARRATIVE DESCRIPTION OF THE FORECAST PATTERNS FOR TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION FOR BOTH THE 6-10 OR 8-14 DAY PERIODS HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED. THE STATE TABLES FOR BOTH THE 6-10 AND 8-14 DAY PERIODS ARE NOW CONTAINED IN THIS MESSAGE...AVAILABLE AS PMDMRD ON AWIPS. THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER USES 1971-2000 BASE PERIOD MEANS FOR TEMPERATURE...PRECIPITATION...AND 500-HPA HEIGHTS AS REFERENCE IN THE CLIMATE OUTLOOKS. THE NEXT SET OF LONG-LEAD MONTHLY AND SEASONAL OUTLOOKS WILL BE RELEASED ON SEPTEMBER 21. NEW NOTE EFFECTIVE MAR 16 2004: THE GLOSSARY FORMERLY FOUND AT THIS LOCATION WILL NO LONGER BE TRANSMITTED AS PART OF THIS MESSAGE. IF YOU WISH TO SEE THE DEFINITIONS OF TERMS USED IN THESE MESSAGES... PLEASE GO TO THE CPC WEB PAGE AT (USE LOWER CASE) HTTP://WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV AND FOLLOW THE APPROPRIATE LINKS. ANALOGS TO THE 5 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 3 DAYS AGO (D-3) FOR THE REGION FROM 20N to 70N LATITUDE AND 175E to 60W LONGITUDE INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES: 19530909 - 19690909 - 19670830 - 19960829 - 19880903 ANALOGS TO THE 7 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 4 DAYS AGO (D-4) FOR THE REGION FROM 20N to 70N LATITUDE AND 175E to 60W LONGITUDE INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES: 19530909 - 19690908 - 19880903 - 19810917 - 19810823 6 to 10 day Outlook Table OUTLOOK FOR SEP 13 - 17, 2006 STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN WASHINGTON N B OREGON B B NRN CALIF N N SRN CALIF N N IDAHO B N NEVADA N N W MONTANA B N E MONTANA N A WYOMING N A UTAH N N ARIZONA N N COLORADO N N NEW MEXICO N N N DAKOTA A N S DAKOTA A N NEBRASKA N A KANSAS B N OKLAHOMA B N N TEXAS N N S TEXAS N A W TEXAS N N MINNESOTA A N IOWA N N MISSOURI N N ARKANSAS N A LOUISIANA N A WISCONSIN N N ILLINOIS N N MISSISSIPPI N A MICHIGAN N N INDIANA N A OHIO N N KENTUCKY N A TENNESSEE N A ALABAMA N A NEW YORK N N VERMONT A N NEW HAMP A N MAINE A N MASS N N CONN N N RHODE IS N N PENN N N NEW JERSEY N N W VIRGINIA N A MARYLAND N N DELAWARE N N VIRGINIA N A N CAROLINA N A S CAROLINA B A GEORGIA B A FL PNHDL B A FL PENIN N A AK N SLOPE A A AK ALEUTIAN N N AK WESTERN N A AK INT BSN A N AK S INT A N AK SO COAST A B AK PNHDL A B 8 to 14 day Outlook Table OUTLOOK FOR SEP 15 - 21, 2006 STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN WASHINGTON B N OREGON B N NRN CALIF B N SRN CALIF B N IDAHO B N NEVADA N N W MONTANA B A E MONTANA B A WYOMING N N UTAH N N ARIZONA N B COLORADO N B NEW MEXICO A B N DAKOTA N A S DAKOTA N N NEBRASKA N N KANSAS A B OKLAHOMA A B N TEXAS A B S TEXAS A B W TEXAS A B MINNESOTA N A IOWA A N MISSOURI A B ARKANSAS A B LOUISIANA A N WISCONSIN A N ILLINOIS A N MISSISSIPPI A N MICHIGAN A N INDIANA A N OHIO N N KENTUCKY N N TENNESSEE N N ALABAMA A N NEW YORK N B VERMONT B B NEW HAMP B B MAINE B B MASS B B CONN B B RHODE IS B B PENN N N NEW JERSEY N N W VIRGINIA N N MARYLAND N N DELAWARE N N VIRGINIA N N N CAROLINA N N S CAROLINA N A GEORGIA N A FL PNHDL N A FL PENIN N N AK N SLOPE A N AK ALEUTIAN N A AK WESTERN N A AK INT BSN A N AK S INT A N AK SO COAST A A AK PNHDL N B LEGEND TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN A - ABOVE N - NEAR NORMAL A - ABOVE N - NEAR MEDIAN B - BELOW B - BELOW THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS PMDMRD. $$