PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSIONS FOR 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD 300 PM EDT WED SEP 06 2006 6-10 DAY OUTLOOK VALID FOR SEP 12 - 16 2006 TODAYS AVAILABLE ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLUTIONS ARE IN ONLY FAIR AGREEMENT ON THE EXPECTED 500-HPA HEIGHT PATTERN OVER NORTH AMERICA. THE CONUS IS EXPECTED TO BE DOMINATED BY A MOSTLY ZONAL FLOW PATTERN WITH WEAK SHORT WAVE FEATURES EMBEDDED WITHIN IT. THE ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN APPEARS TO BE LESS PROGRESSIVE WITH THESE SHORTWAVE FEATURES COMPARED TO THE 0Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN. A SOUTHERN EXTENTION OF THE POLAR VORTEX IS EXPECTED TO DOMINATE WESTERN ALASKA WHILE A WEAK RIDGE IS FORECAST OVER THE EASTERN PART OF THE STATE AND ANOTHER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE ALEUTIANS. THE RECENT GFS AND ECMWF OPERATIONAL SOLUTIONS DO NOT AGREE WELL WITH EACH OTHER OR WITH THEIR RESPECTIVE ENSEMBLE MEANS AS TIMING AND AMPLITUDE DIFFERENCES OCCUR FOR INDIVIDUAL SHORTWAVE FEATURES MOVING THROUGH THE ZONAL FLOW. THE DAVA IS SIMILAR TO THE 0Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN. IN GENERAL 500-HPA HEIGHTS ARE PROGGED TO BE BELOW NORMAL OVER THE SOUTHEAST CONUS AND NORTHWEST ALASKA AND ABOVE NORMAL OVER THE NORTHWEST CONUS AND THE REMAINDER OF ALASKA. GIVEN THE RELATIVELY POOR AGREEMENT AMONG THE OPERATIONAL MODELS TODAYS BLEND WILL BE HEAVILY WEIGHTED TOWARDS THE ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLUTIONS AND CONFIDENCE IN TODAYS FORECAST IS LOW. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATED ALONG THE WEST COAST UNDER THE WEAK RIDGE AND AREA OF ABOVE NORMAL HEIGHTS. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS DUE TO THE BROAD TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED AREA OF BELOW NORMAL HEIGHTS FORECAST FOR THAT REGION. PRECIPITATION ALONG THE NORTHEAST COAST IS EXPECTED TO BE ABOVE NORMAL DUE TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE BROAD EASTERN TROUGH. PRECIPITATION OVER MUCH OF THE WEST IS FORECAST TO BE NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF THE WEAK RIDGE. NORTHERN ALASKA IS LIKELY TO HAVE ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION AHEAD OF THE DEEP TROUGH FORECAST OVER THE NORTHWESTERN PART OF THE STATE. TODAYS OFFICIAL 500-HPA BLEND CONSISTS OF 5 PERCENT OF TODAY'S OPERATIONAL 0Z GFS CENTERED ON DAY 8...5 PERCENT OF TODAY'S OPERATIONAL 6Z GFS CENTERED ON DAY 8...5 PERCENT OF TODAY'S OPERATIONAL ECMWF CENTERED ON DAY 7...10 PERCENT OF TODAY'S DAVA CENTERED ON DAY 8...15 PERCENT OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8...35 PERCENT OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8...AND 25 PERCENT OF TODAY'S EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 7. MODEL(S) OF THE DAY: 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD IS BELOW AVERAGE ... 2 ON A SCALE OF 1 TO 5 DUE TO POOR MODEL AGREEMENT AND ONLY FAIR AGREEMENT AMONG THE FORECAST TOOLS. THE 6-10 DAY TEMPERATURE PROG IS BASED ON THE KLEIN AND NEURAL NET SPECIFICATIONS FROM THE OFFICIAL BLEND... 850-HPA BIAS CORRECTED TEMPERATURES FROM THE 0Z OPERATIONAL GFS... UNCALIBRATED AND CALIBRATED 2-METER TEMPERATURES FROM THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN... THE CPC AUTO TEMPERATURE FORECAST AND THE CDC TEMPERATURE REFORECAST TOOL. THE 6-10 DAY PRECIPITATION PROG IS BASED ON THE ANALOG AND NEURAL NET SPECIFICATIONS FROM THE OFFICIAL BLEND... CPC AND EMC CALIBRATED PRECIPITATION PERCENTAGES FROM THE GFS ENSEMBLE... THE CPC AUTO PRECIPITATION FORECAST... THE CDC PRECIPITATION FORECAST... AND CALIBRATED PRECIPITATION FROM THE 6Z OPERATIONAL GFS AND 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN. 8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR SEP 14 - 20 2006: FOR WEEK 2 THE GFS SUPERENSEMBLE MEAN FORECASTS VERY LITTLE CHANGE TO THE 500-HPA HEIGHT PATTERN FROM THAT DEPICTED FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD. MOST OF THE CONUS IS FORECAST TO BE DOMINATED BY ZONAL FLOW WITH WEAK TROUGHS OVER THE EAST/CENTRAL CONUS AND ALONG THE WEST COAST AND A WEAK RIDGE OVER THE WEST/CENTRAL STATES. A SOUTHERN EXTENTION OF THE POLAR VORTEX IS EXPECTED TO DOMINATE WESTERN ALASKA WHILE A FLAT RIDGE IS FORECAST OVER THE EASTERN PART OF THE STATE. THE CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN IS SIMILAR IN PHASE BUT MORE AMPLIFIED THAN THE GFS SUPERENSEMBLE MEAN. THE OPERATIONAL 6Z GFS IS ALSO MORE AMPLIFIED THAN THE GFS SUPERENEMBLE MEAN BUT LESS PROGRESSIVE WHILE THE 0Z OPERATIONAL GFS INDICATES LESS AMPLITUDE TO THE FLOW OVER THE CONUS BUT DEVELOPS A BLOCK OVER CENTRAL CANADA. THE DAVA IS SIMILAR TO THE GFS SUPERENSEMBLE MEAN BUT LESS AMPLIFIED. IN GENERAL THE MODELS INDICATE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL HEIGHTS ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS AND ALASKA AND SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL HEIGHTS OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. MUCH OF THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS IS EXPECTED TO HAVE ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION... ESPECIALLY IF THE ANALOG FORECAST IS CORRECT IN DEPICTING A DEEPER TROUGH OVER THE TENNESEE VALLEY THAN IS REFLECTED IN THE BLEND PROG. NORTHWESTERN ALASKA IS ALSO FORECAST TO HAVE ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION AHEAD OF THE TROUGH PROGGED FOR THAT REGION. THE BROAD EASTERN TROUGH SHOULD LEAD TO NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THERE WHILE THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S. IS EXPECTED TO HAVE NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES UNDERNEATH THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE AND ASSOCIATED AREA OF ABOVE NORMAL HEIGHTS. THE OFFICIAL 8-14 DAY HEIGHT PROG CONSISTS OF 5 PERCENT OF TODAY'S OPERATIONAL 0Z GFS CENTERED ON DAY 11...10 PERCENT OF TODAY'S OPERATIONAL 6Z GFS CENTERED ON DAY 11...10 PERCENT OF TODAY'S DAVA CENTERED ON DAY 11...15 PERCENT OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11...20 PERCENT OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11...30 PERCENT OF TODAY'S GFS SUPERENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11...AND 10 PERCENT OF TODAY'S CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11. FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD IS BELOW AVERAGE TODAY... 2 ON A SCALE OF 1 TO 5... DUE TO ONLY FAIR MODEL AGREEMENT AND POOR AGREEMENT AMONG THE FORECAST TOOLS. THE 8-14 DAY TEMPERATURE PROG IS BASED ON THE KLEIN... NEURAL NET... AND ANALOG SPECIFICATIONS FROM THE OFFICIAL BLEND... BIAS-CORRECTED 850-HPA TEMPERATURES FROM THE OPERATIONAL 0Z GFS... THE CDC REFORECAST TEMPERATURE TOOL... THE CPC AUTO FORECAST... THE KLEIN AND NEURAL NET PROBABILITIES FROM THE GFS ENSEMBLE AND THE UNCALIBRATED AND CALIBRATED 2-METER TEMPERATURES FROM THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN. THE 8-14 DAY PRECIPITATION PROG IS BASED ON THE ANALOG AND NEURAL NET SPECIFICATIONS FROM THE OFFICIAL BLEND... THE EMC AND CPC CALIBRATED PRECIPITATION PERCENTAGES FROM THE GFS ENSEMBLE... THE CPC AUTO FORECAST... THE CDC REFORECAST PRECIPITATION TOOL AND CALIBRATED PRECIPITATION FROM THE 6Z OPERATIONAL GFS AND 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN. FORECASTER: R. SCHECHTER NOTES: OPERATIONAL CHANGE: AS OF JULY 5 2005 SHADED MAPS HAVE REPLACED THE CONTOUR-ONLY MAPS ON THE CPC WEB SITE. THE CONTOURED MAPS ARE STILL AVAILABLE AT THEIR CURRENT FILE NAMES - SO DIRECT-LINKED USERS ARE NOT AFFECTED. AWIPS GRAPHICS ARE ALSO NOT AFFECTED BY THIS CHANGE. AUTOMATED FORECASTS ARE ISSUED ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. OTHERWISE - FORECASTS INCORPORATE FORECASTER INPUT. THE NOTATION FOR THE CATEGORICAL FORECAST INDICATED ON THE MAPS IS THE SAME AS THAT IN THE TABLES: A-ABOVE N-NEAR NORMAL B-BELOW IN THE SOUTHWEST AND OTHER CLIMATOLOGICALLY DRY REGIONS - THERE WILL BE A GREATER THAN 33.3% CHANCE OF NO PRECIPITATION AND OCCASIONALLY EVEN A NORMAL (I.E. MEDIAN) VALUE OF ZERO - ESPECIALLY DURING THE DRY SEASONS. IN SUCH CASES A FORECAST OF NEAR NORMAL IS EFFECTIVELY A FORECAST OF LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION. THE NARRATIVE DESCRIPTION OF THE FORECAST PATTERNS FOR TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION FOR BOTH THE 6-10 OR 8-14 DAY PERIODS HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED. THE STATE TABLES FOR BOTH THE 6-10 AND 8-14 DAY PERIODS ARE NOW CONTAINED IN THIS MESSAGE...AVAILABLE AS PMDMRD ON AWIPS. THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER USES 1971-2000 BASE PERIOD MEANS FOR TEMPERATURE...PRECIPITATION...AND 500-HPA HEIGHTS AS REFERENCE IN THE CLIMATE OUTLOOKS. THE NEXT SET OF LONG-LEAD MONTHLY AND SEASONAL OUTLOOKS WILL BE RELEASED ON SEPTEMBER 21. NEW NOTE EFFECTIVE MAR 16 2004: THE GLOSSARY FORMERLY FOUND AT THIS LOCATION WILL NO LONGER BE TRANSMITTED AS PART OF THIS MESSAGE. IF YOU WISH TO SEE THE DEFINITIONS OF TERMS USED IN THESE MESSAGES... PLEASE GO TO THE CPC WEB PAGE AT (USE LOWER CASE) HTTP://WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV AND FOLLOW THE APPROPRIATE LINKS. ANALOGS TO THE 5 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 3 DAYS AGO (D-3) FOR THE REGION FROM 20N to 70N LATITUDE AND 175E to 60W LONGITUDE INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES: 19530909 - 19690908 - 19810823 - 19710828 - 19810917 ANALOGS TO THE 7 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 4 DAYS AGO (D-4) FOR THE REGION FROM 20N to 70N LATITUDE AND 175E to 60W LONGITUDE INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES: 19690908 - 19530909 - 19810822 - 19680829 - 19970903 6 to 10 day Outlook Table OUTLOOK FOR SEP 12 - 16, 2006 STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN WASHINGTON A N OREGON A N NRN CALIF A N SRN CALIF A N IDAHO N N NEVADA A N W MONTANA N N E MONTANA N N WYOMING N B UTAH N B ARIZONA N B COLORADO B B NEW MEXICO B B N DAKOTA A A S DAKOTA N N NEBRASKA N N KANSAS N B OKLAHOMA N B N TEXAS N N S TEXAS N N W TEXAS B B MINNESOTA A A IOWA N N MISSOURI N N ARKANSAS N N LOUISIANA N N WISCONSIN N N ILLINOIS N N MISSISSIPPI N N MICHIGAN N N INDIANA N N OHIO N N KENTUCKY N N TENNESSEE N N ALABAMA B N NEW YORK N N VERMONT A N NEW HAMP N A MAINE A A MASS N A CONN N A RHODE IS N A PENN N N NEW JERSEY B A W VIRGINIA N N MARYLAND B N DELAWARE B N VIRGINIA B N N CAROLINA B N S CAROLINA B N GEORGIA B N FL PNHDL B N FL PENIN B N AK N SLOPE A A AK ALEUTIAN N N AK WESTERN N A AK INT BSN A N AK S INT N B AK SO COAST N B AK PNHDL N N 8 to 14 day Outlook Table OUTLOOK FOR SEP 14 - 20, 2006 STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN WASHINGTON N B OREGON A B NRN CALIF A N SRN CALIF A N IDAHO N B NEVADA A B W MONTANA N B E MONTANA B N WYOMING N B UTAH N B ARIZONA A N COLORADO N B NEW MEXICO A B N DAKOTA B A S DAKOTA B A NEBRASKA N A KANSAS N N OKLAHOMA N N N TEXAS A N S TEXAS A N W TEXAS A N MINNESOTA B A IOWA N A MISSOURI N N ARKANSAS N N LOUISIANA N N WISCONSIN B A ILLINOIS N A MISSISSIPPI N N MICHIGAN N A INDIANA N A OHIO N A KENTUCKY N N TENNESSEE N N ALABAMA N B NEW YORK N A VERMONT N A NEW HAMP N A MAINE N A MASS N A CONN N A RHODE IS N A PENN N A NEW JERSEY N A W VIRGINIA N A MARYLAND B A DELAWARE B A VIRGINIA B N N CAROLINA B N S CAROLINA B B GEORGIA N B FL PNHDL N B FL PENIN N N AK N SLOPE A A AK ALEUTIAN A A AK WESTERN A A AK INT BSN A N AK S INT A A AK SO COAST N A AK PNHDL N B LEGEND TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN A - ABOVE N - NEAR NORMAL A - ABOVE N - NEAR MEDIAN B - BELOW B - BELOW THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS PMDMRD. $$