PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSIONS FOR 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD 300 PM EDT TUE SEP 05 2006 6-10 DAY OUTLOOK VALID FOR SEP 11 - 15 2006 TODAYS AVAILABLE ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLUTIONS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE EXPECTED 500-HPA HEIGHT PATTERN OVER NORTH AMERICA. A BROAD TROUGH IS FORECAST TO DOMINATE THE EASTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE CONUS... A WEAK RIDGE IS FORECAST OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN PART OF THE COUNTRY AND A TROUGH IS EXPECTED ALONG THE CALIFORNIA COAST. A SOUTHERN EXTENTION OF THE POLAR VORTEX IS PROGGED OVER NORTHWESTERN ALASKA WHILE A FLAT RIDGE IS FORECAST OVER THE EASTERN PART OF THE STATE. A VIGOROUS ZONALLY ORIENTED POLAR JETSTREAM IS EXPECTED TO DOMINATE MOST OF CANADA. THE OPERATIONAL 0Z AND 6Z GFS ARE SIMILAR IN PHASE... BUT MORE AMPLIFIED THAN THE 0Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN. THE OPERATONAL GFS SOLUTIONS ARE ALSO LESS PROGRESSIVE WITH THE TROUGH APPROACHING THE CALIFORNIA COAST. ONCE AGAIN TODAY THE 12Z OPERATIONAL ECMWF IS NOT A GOOD FIT TO THE ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN AS THE OPERATIONAL SOLUTION IS MUCH DEEPER WITH A TROUGH OVER THE INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST AND INDICATES A SPLIT-FLOW PATTERN OVER THE CONUS. THE DAVA AGREES FAIRLY WELL WITH THE ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLUTIONS. AS A RESULT 500-HPA HEIGHTS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED TO BE NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL OVER MOST OF THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS... WEST OF THE CALIFORNIA COAST AND NORTHWESTERN ALASKA AND NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CONUS AND THE ALEUTIANS. TEMPERATURES OVER MUCH OF THE EASTERN CONUS ARE EXPECTED TO BE NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE BROAD TROUGH FORECAST THERE. AS HEIGHTS RISE OVER THE ALEUTIANS ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO OCCUR IN THAT AREA. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO ANTICIPATED OVER PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN CONUS UNDER THE WEAK RIDGE AND AREA OF ABOVE NORMAL HEIGHTS. PRECIPITATION OVER MUCH OF THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS IS EXPECTED TO BE BELOW AVERAGE DUE TO SUBSIDENCE ON THE REAR SIDE OF THE TROUGH PROGGED THERE. MUCH OF ALASKA IS FAVORED TO HAVE NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION DUE TO THE DEEP TROUGH PROGGED OVER THE NORTHWESTERN PART OF THE STATE. TODAYS OFFICIAL 500-HPA BLEND CONSISTS OF 10 PERCENT OF TODAY'S OPERATIONAL 0Z GFS CENTERED ON DAY 8...10 PERCENT OF TODAY'S OPERATIONAL 6Z GFS CENTERED ON DAY 8...10 PERCENT OF TODAY'S DAVA CENTERED ON DAY 8...35 PERCENT OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8...15 PERCENT OF TODAY'S CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8...AND 20 PERCENT OF TODAY'S EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 7. MODEL(S) OF THE DAY: 0Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD IS BELOW AVERAGE ... 2 ON A SCALE OF 1 TO 5 DUE TO FAIR MODEL AGREEMENT OFFFSET BY RELATIVELY POOR AGREEMENT AMONG THE FORECAST TOOLS. THE 6-10 DAY TEMPERATURE PROG IS BASED ON THE KLEIN... NEURAL NET AND ANALOG SPECIFICATIONS FROM THE OFFICIAL BLEND... 850-HPA BIAS CORRECTED TEMPERATURES FROM THE 0Z OPERATIONAL GFS... UNCALIBRATED AND CALIBRATED 2-METER TEMPERATURES FROM THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN... THE CPC AUTO TEMPERATURE FORECAST AND THE CDC TEMPERATURE REFORECAST TOOL. THE 6-10 DAY PRECIPITATION PROG IS BASED ON THE ANALOG AND NEURAL NET SPECIFICATIONS FROM THE OFFICIAL BLEND... CPC AND EMC CALIBRATED PRECIPITATION PERCENTAGES FROM THE GFS ENSEMBLE... THE CPC AUTO PRECIPITATION FORECAST... THE CDC PRECIPITATION FORECAST... AND CALIBRATED PRECIPITATION FROM THE 6Z OPERATIONAL GFS AND 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN. 8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR SEP 13 - 19 2006: FOR WEEK 2 THE GFS SUPERENSEMBLE MEAN FORECASTS A SLOW PROGRESSION AND SLIGHT DEAMPLIFICATION OF THE 500-HPA HEIGHT PATTERN FROM THAT DEPICTED FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD. MOST OF THE CONUS IS FORECAST TO BE DOMINATED BY ZONAL FLOW WITH WEAK TROUGHS OVER THE EASTERN CONUS AND ALONG THE WEST COAST AND A WEAK RIDGE OVER THE WEST/CENTRAL STATES. A SOUTHERN EXTENTION OF THE POLAR VORTEX IS EXPECTED TO DOMINATE WESTERN ALASKA WHILE A WEAK FLAT RIDGE IS FORECAST OVER THE EASTERN PART OF THE STATE. THE 0Z OPERATIONAL GFS IS SIMILAR IN PHASE... THOUGH SOMEWHAT LESS PROGRESSIVE THAN THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLUTIONS... BUT IS MUCH MORE AMPLIFIED WITH THE INDIVIDUAL CIRCULATION FEATURES. THE OPERATIONAL 6Z GFS IS OUT OF PHASE WITH THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEANS BUT NOT QUITE AS AMPLIFIED AS THE OPERATIONAL 0Z GFS. THE CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN IS SIMILAR TO THE GFS SUPERENSEMBLE MEAN BUT INDICATES HIGHER HEIGHTS OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WHILE THE DAVA IS SIMILAR TO THE GFS SUPERENSEMBLE MEAN BUT DEPICTS SOMEWHAT HIGHER HEIGHTS OVER THE SOUTHERN CONUS. IN GENERAL THE MODELS INDICATE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL HEIGHTS ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE CONUS AND OVER THE WEST AND NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL HEIGHTS ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS. HEIGHTS OVER NORTHERN ALASKA ARE FORECAST TO BE BELOW NORMAL WHILE THE ALEUTIANS ARE PROGGED TO HAVE ABOVE NORMAL HEIGHTS. MUCH OF THE EASTERN CONUS IS EXPECTED TO HAVE BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION DUE TO SUBSIDENCE ON THE REAR SIDE OF THE BROAD TROUGH FORECAST THERE. NORTHERN ALASKA IS FORECAST TO HAVE ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION AHEAD OF THE TROUGH PROGGED FOR THAT REGION. THE OFFICIAL 8-14 DAY HEIGHT PROG CONSISTS OF 10 PERCENT OF TODAY'S OPERATIONAL 0Z GFS CENTERED ON DAY 11...10 PERCENT OF TODAY'S OPERATIONAL 6Z GFS CENTERED ON DAY 11...10 PERCENT OF TODAY'S DAVA CENTERED ON DAY 11...10 PERCENT OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11...20 PERCENT OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11...25 PERCENT OF TODAY'S GFS SUPERENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11...AND 15 PERCENT OF TODAY'S CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11. FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD IS BELOW AVERAGE TODAY... 2 ON A SCALE OF 1 TO 5... DUE TO FAIR MODEL AGREEMENT OFFSET BY RELATIVELY POOR AGREEMENT AMONG THE FORECAST TOOLS. THE 8-14 DAY TEMPERATURE PROG IS BASED ON THE KLEIN... NEURAL NET... AND ANALOG SPECIFICATIONS FROM THE OFFICIAL BLEND... BIAS-CORRECTED 850-HPA TEMPERATURES FROM THE OPERATIONAL 0Z GFS... THE CDC REFORECAST TEMPERATURE TOOL... THE KLEIN AND NEURAL NET PROBABILITIES FROM THE GFS ENSEMBLE AND THE UNCALIBRATED AND CALIBRATED 2-METER TEMPERATURES FROM THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN. THE 8-14 DAY PRECIPITATION PROG IS BASED ON THE ANALOG AND NEURAL NET SPECIFICATIONS FROM THE OFFICIAL BLEND... THE EMC AND CPC CALIBRATED PRECIPITATION PERCENTAGES FROM THE GFS ENSEMBLE... THE CPC AUTO FORECAST... THE CDC REFORECAST PRECIPITATION TOOL AND CALIBRATED PRECIPITATION FROM THE 6Z OPERATIONAL GFS AND 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN. FORECASTER: R. SCHECHTER NOTES: OPERATIONAL CHANGE: AS OF JULY 5 2005 SHADED MAPS HAVE REPLACED THE CONTOUR-ONLY MAPS ON THE CPC WEB SITE. THE CONTOURED MAPS ARE STILL AVAILABLE AT THEIR CURRENT FILE NAMES - SO DIRECT-LINKED USERS ARE NOT AFFECTED. AWIPS GRAPHICS ARE ALSO NOT AFFECTED BY THIS CHANGE. AUTOMATED FORECASTS ARE ISSUED ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. OTHERWISE - FORECASTS INCORPORATE FORECASTER INPUT. THE NOTATION FOR THE CATEGORICAL FORECAST INDICATED ON THE MAPS IS THE SAME AS THAT IN THE TABLES: A-ABOVE N-NEAR NORMAL B-BELOW IN THE SOUTHWEST AND OTHER CLIMATOLOGICALLY DRY REGIONS - THERE WILL BE A GREATER THAN 33.3% CHANCE OF NO PRECIPITATION AND OCCASIONALLY EVEN A NORMAL (I.E. MEDIAN) VALUE OF ZERO - ESPECIALLY DURING THE DRY SEASONS. IN SUCH CASES A FORECAST OF NEAR NORMAL IS EFFECTIVELY A FORECAST OF LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION. THE NARRATIVE DESCRIPTION OF THE FORECAST PATTERNS FOR TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION FOR BOTH THE 6-10 OR 8-14 DAY PERIODS HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED. THE STATE TABLES FOR BOTH THE 6-10 AND 8-14 DAY PERIODS ARE NOW CONTAINED IN THIS MESSAGE...AVAILABLE AS PMDMRD ON AWIPS. THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER USES 1971-2000 BASE PERIOD MEANS FOR TEMPERATURE...PRECIPITATION...AND 500-HPA HEIGHTS AS REFERENCE IN THE CLIMATE OUTLOOKS. THE NEXT SET OF LONG-LEAD MONTHLY AND SEASONAL OUTLOOKS WILL BE RELEASED ON SEPTEMBER 21. NEW NOTE EFFECTIVE MAR 16 2004: THE GLOSSARY FORMERLY FOUND AT THIS LOCATION WILL NO LONGER BE TRANSMITTED AS PART OF THIS MESSAGE. IF YOU WISH TO SEE THE DEFINITIONS OF TERMS USED IN THESE MESSAGES... PLEASE GO TO THE CPC WEB PAGE AT (USE LOWER CASE) HTTP://WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV AND FOLLOW THE APPROPRIATE LINKS. ANALOGS TO THE 5 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 3 DAYS AGO (D-3) FOR THE REGION FROM 20N to 70N LATITUDE AND 175E to 60W LONGITUDE INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES: 19680829 - 19530909 - 19690908 - 19810822 - 19870919 ANALOGS TO THE 7 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 4 DAYS AGO (D-4) FOR THE REGION FROM 20N to 70N LATITUDE AND 175E to 60W LONGITUDE INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES: 19680829 - 19530820 - 19960911 - 19810822 - 19530909 6 to 10 day Outlook Table OUTLOOK FOR SEP 11 - 15, 2006 STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN WASHINGTON A B OREGON A N NRN CALIF A N SRN CALIF A N IDAHO A N NEVADA A N W MONTANA A B E MONTANA A B WYOMING N N UTAH N N ARIZONA N N COLORADO N N NEW MEXICO N N N DAKOTA A B S DAKOTA N N NEBRASKA N N KANSAS B A OKLAHOMA B A N TEXAS N N S TEXAS N N W TEXAS N N MINNESOTA N N IOWA N N MISSOURI N A ARKANSAS N A LOUISIANA N N WISCONSIN B N ILLINOIS N N MISSISSIPPI N N MICHIGAN B N INDIANA N N OHIO N B KENTUCKY N N TENNESSEE B N ALABAMA B B NEW YORK N B VERMONT N B NEW HAMP N B MAINE N N MASS N N CONN N N RHODE IS N N PENN N B NEW JERSEY N N W VIRGINIA N N MARYLAND N N DELAWARE N N VIRGINIA B N N CAROLINA B N S CAROLINA B N GEORGIA B B FL PNHDL B B FL PENIN B N AK N SLOPE A A AK ALEUTIAN A B AK WESTERN N A AK INT BSN N N AK S INT N N AK SO COAST N N AK PNHDL N A 8 to 14 day Outlook Table OUTLOOK FOR SEP 13 - 19, 2006 STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN WASHINGTON A N OREGON A B NRN CALIF A N SRN CALIF N N IDAHO A B NEVADA A N W MONTANA A N E MONTANA A N WYOMING A N UTAH A N ARIZONA A N COLORADO A N NEW MEXICO A N N DAKOTA N N S DAKOTA N A NEBRASKA A A KANSAS A A OKLAHOMA A B N TEXAS A B S TEXAS N B W TEXAS A B MINNESOTA B A IOWA N A MISSOURI N N ARKANSAS N B LOUISIANA N B WISCONSIN B N ILLINOIS N N MISSISSIPPI N B MICHIGAN B N INDIANA N B OHIO N B KENTUCKY N B TENNESSEE N B ALABAMA N B NEW YORK N B VERMONT N B NEW HAMP N B MAINE N B MASS N B CONN N B RHODE IS N B PENN N B NEW JERSEY N B W VIRGINIA N B MARYLAND N B DELAWARE N B VIRGINIA N B N CAROLINA B B S CAROLINA B B GEORGIA N N FL PNHDL B N FL PENIN B N AK N SLOPE N A AK ALEUTIAN A A AK WESTERN A A AK INT BSN A N AK S INT A N AK SO COAST A N AK PNHDL N N LEGEND TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN A - ABOVE N - NEAR NORMAL A - ABOVE N - NEAR MEDIAN B - BELOW B - BELOW THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS PMDMRD. $$