PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSIONS FOR 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD 300 PM EDT MON SEP 04 2006 6-10 DAY OUTLOOK VALID FOR SEP 10 - 14 2006 TODAYS 0Z AND 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN AND YESTERDAYS 12Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLUTIONS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE EXPECTED 500-HPA HEIGHT PATTERN OVER NORTH AMERICA. A ZONALLY ORIENTED POLAR JETSTREAM IS FORECAST ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA WITH A TROUGH PROGGED TO BE OVER WESTERN GREENLAND AND A WEAK RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL PROVINCES. A SOUTHERN EXTENTION OF THE POLAR VORTEX IS EXPECTED TO DOMINATE WESTERN ALASKA. A BROAD TROUGH IS FORECAST OVER THE EAST/CENTRAL CONUS WHILE ANOTHER TROUGH IS EXPECTED NEAR THE CALIFORNIA COAST. WEAK RIDGING IS ANTICIPATED ALONG THE GULF COAST. AS A RESULT 500-HPA HEIGHTS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED TO BE NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL OVER MOST OF THE SOUTHERN TWO THIRDS OF THE CONUS AND ALASKA AND NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL OVER THE NORTHERN THIRD OF THE CONUS AND THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS. THE 0Z AND 6Z OPERATIONAL GFS SOLUTIONS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH THE 0Z AND 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEANS... ALTHOUGH THE OPERATIONAL SOLUTIONS ARE MORE AMPLIFIED WITH INDIVIDUAL CIRCULATION FETURES... WHILE THE 12Z OPERATIONAL ECMWF IS IN POOR AGREEMENT WITH ITS ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLUTION AS THE OPERATIONAL RUN IS MUCH MORE AMPLIFIED THAN... AND OUT OF PHASE WITH... ITS ENSEMBLE MEAN. THE DAVA AGREES FARILY WELL WITH THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLUTIONS. TEMPERATURES OVER MUCH OF THE EASTERN CONUS ARE EXPECTED TO BE NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE BROAD TROUGH FORECAST THERE. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO FORECAST OVER NORTHWEST ALASKA DUE TO THE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED AREA OF BELOW NORMAL HEIGHTS PROGGED FOR THAT REGION. AS HEIGHTS RISE OVER THE ALEUTIANS ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO OCCUR IN THAT AREA. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO ANTICIPATED OVER PORTIONS OF THE NORTHWESTERN CONUS UNDER THE WEAK RIDGE AND AREA OF ABOVE NORMAL HEIGHTS. PRECIPITATION OVER MUCH OF THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS IS EXPECTED TO BE ABOVE AVERAGE DUE TO THE TROUGH PROGGED THERE AND NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN TIER OF THE CONUS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE RIDGING FORECAST ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES. MUCH OF ALASKA IS FAVORED TO HAVE ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION DUE TO THE DEEP TROUGH PROGGED OVER THE NORTHWESTERN PART OF THE STATE. TODAYS OFFICIAL 500-HPA BLEND CONSISTS OF 10 PERCENT OF TODAY'S OPERATIONAL 0Z GFS CENTERED ON DAY 8...15 PERCENT OF TODAY'S OPERATIONAL 6Z GFS CENTERED ON DAY 8...10 PERCENT OF TODAY'S DAVA CENTERED ON DAY 8...20 PERCENT OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8...25 PERCENT OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8...AND 20 PERCENT OF TODAY'S EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 7. MODEL(S) OF THE DAY: 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD IS BELOW AVERAGE ... 2 ON A SCALE OF 1 TO 5 DUE TO FAIR MODEL AGREEMENT OFFFSET BY RELATIVELY POOR AGREEMENT AMONG THE FORECAST TOOLS. THE 6-10 DAY TEMPERATURE PROG IS BASED ON THE KLEIN... NEURAL NET AND ANALOG SPECIFICATIONS FROM THE OFFICIAL BLEND... 850-HPA BIAS CORRECTED TEMPERATURES FROM THE 0Z OPERATIONAL GFS... UNCALIBRATED AND CALIBRATED 2-METER TEMPERATURES FROM THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN... THE CPC AUTO TEMPERATURE FORECAST AND THE CDC TEMPERATURE REFORECAST TOOL. THE 6-10 DAY PRECIPITATION PROG IS BASED ON THE ANALOG AND NEURAL NET SPECIFICATIONS FROM THE OFFICIAL BLEND... CPC AND EMC CALIBRATED PRECIPITATION PERCENTAGES FROM THE GFS ENSEMBLE... THE CPC AUTO PRECIPITATION FORECAST... THE CDC PRECIPITATION FORECAST... AND CALIBRATED PRECIPITATION FROM THE 6Z OPERATIONAL GFS AND 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN. 8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR SEP 12 - 18 2006: FOR WEEK 2 THE GFS SUPERENSEMBLE MEAN FORECASTS A SLOW PROGRESSION AND SLIGHT DEAMPLIFICATION OF THE 500-HPA HEIGHT PATTERN FROM THAT DEPICTED FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD. MOST OF THE CONUS IS FORECAST TO BE DOMINATED BY ZONAL FLOW WITH WEAK TROUGHS NEAR THE GREAT LAKES AND ALONG THE WEST COAST AND A WEAK RIDGE OVER THE WEST/CENTRAL STATES. A SOUTHWEST EXTENTION OF THE POLAR VORTEX IS EXPECTED TO DOMINATE WESTERN ALASKA WHILE A WEAK RIDGE IS FORECAST OVER THE EASTERN PART OF THE STATE. THE 0Z AND 6Z OPERATIONAL GFS ARE SIMILAR IN PHASE TO THE ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLUTION BUT ARE MUCH MORE AMPLIFIED WITH THE INDIVIDUAL CIRCULATION FEATURES. THE CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN ALSO INDICATES A MORE AMPLIFIED PATTERN COMPARED TO THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLUTIONS WHILE THE DAVA IS SIMILAR TO THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN BUT DEPICTS SOMEWHAT HIGHER HEIGHTS OVER THE SOUTHERN CONUS. IN GENERAL THE MODELS INDICATE ABOVE NORMAL HEIGHTS ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE CONUS AND BELOW NORMAL HEIGHTS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CONUS... ALTHOUGH THE CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN AND OPERATIONAL GFS SOLUTIONS DEPICT ABOVE NORMAL HEIGHTS OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN PART OF THE COUNTRY. HEIGHTS OVER ALASKA ARE GENERALLY FORECAST TO BE BELOW NORMAL EXCEPT OVER THE ALEUTIANS WHERE ABOVE NORMAL HEIGHTS ARE PROGGED. THE CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN AND DAVA INDICATE ABOVE NORMAL HEIGHTS OVER MOST OF ALASKA BUT WERE DISCOUNTED AS THEY SHOW POOR CONTINUITY WITH RESPECT TO THEIR FORECASTS FROM YESTERDAY OVER THIS REGION. A SLIGHT EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE BASIC TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION ANOMALY PATTERNS FROM THAT PROGGED FOR THE 6-0 DAY PERIOD IS FORECAST FOR THE WEEK 2 PERIOD. THE OFFICIAL 8-14 DAY HEIGHT PROG CONSISTS OF 10 PERCENT OF TODAY'S OPERATIONAL 0Z GFS CENTERED ON DAY 11...10 PERCENT OF TODAY'S OPERATIONAL 6Z GFS CENTERED ON DAY 11...10 PERCENT OF TODAY'S DAVA CENTERED ON DAY 11...15 PERCENT OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11...20 PERCENT OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11...25 PERCENT OF TODAY'S GFS SUPERENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11...AND 10 PERCENT OF TODAY'S CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11. FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD IS BELOW AVERAGE TODAY... 2 ON A SCALE OF 1 TO 5... DUE TO FAIR MODEL AGREEMENT OFFSET BY RELATIVELY POOR AGREEMENT AMONG THE FORECAST TOOLS. THE 8-14 DAY TEMPERATURE PROG IS BASED ON THE KLEIN... NEURAL NET... AND ANALOG SPECIFICATIONS FROM THE OFFICIAL BLEND... BIAS-CORRECTED 850-HPA TEMPERATURES FROM THE OPERATIONAL 0Z GFS... THE CPC AUTO TEMPERATURE FORECAST... THE CDC REFORECAST TEMPERATURE TOOL... THE KLEIN AND NEURAL NET PROBABILITIES FROMM THE GFS ENSEMBLE AND THE UNCALIBRATED AND CALIBRATED 2-METER TEMPERATURES FROM THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN. THE 8-14 DAY PRECIPITATION PROG IS BASED ON THE ANALOG AND NEURAL NET SPECIFICATIONS FROM THE OFFICIAL BLEND... THE EMC AND CPC CALIBRATED PRECIPITATION PERCENTAGES FROM THE GFS ENSEMBLE... THE CPC AUTO FORECAST... THE CDC REFORECAST PRECIPITATION TOOL AND CALIBRATED PRECIPITATION FROM THE 6Z OPERATIONAL GFS AND 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN. FORECASTER: R. SCHECHTER NOTES: OPERATIONAL CHANGE: AS OF JULY 5 2005 SHADED MAPS HAVE REPLACED THE CONTOUR-ONLY MAPS ON THE CPC WEB SITE. THE CONTOURED MAPS ARE STILL AVAILABLE AT THEIR CURRENT FILE NAMES - SO DIRECT-LINKED USERS ARE NOT AFFECTED. AWIPS GRAPHICS ARE ALSO NOT AFFECTED BY THIS CHANGE. AUTOMATED FORECASTS ARE ISSUED ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. OTHERWISE - FORECASTS INCORPORATE FORECASTER INPUT. THE NOTATION FOR THE CATEGORICAL FORECAST INDICATED ON THE MAPS IS THE SAME AS THAT IN THE TABLES: A-ABOVE N-NEAR NORMAL B-BELOW IN THE SOUTHWEST AND OTHER CLIMATOLOGICALLY DRY REGIONS - THERE WILL BE A GREATER THAN 33.3% CHANCE OF NO PRECIPITATION AND OCCASIONALLY EVEN A NORMAL (I.E. MEDIAN) VALUE OF ZERO - ESPECIALLY DURING THE DRY SEASONS. IN SUCH CASES A FORECAST OF NEAR NORMAL IS EFFECTIVELY A FORECAST OF LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION. THE NARRATIVE DESCRIPTION OF THE FORECAST PATTERNS FOR TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION FOR BOTH THE 6-10 OR 8-14 DAY PERIODS HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED. THE STATE TABLES FOR BOTH THE 6-10 AND 8-14 DAY PERIODS ARE NOW CONTAINED IN THIS MESSAGE...AVAILABLE AS PMDMRD ON AWIPS. THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER USES 1971-2000 BASE PERIOD MEANS FOR TEMPERATURE...PRECIPITATION...AND 500-HPA HEIGHTS AS REFERENCE IN THE CLIMATE OUTLOOKS. THE NEXT SET OF LONG-LEAD MONTHLY AND SEASONAL OUTLOOKS WILL BE RELEASED ON SEPTEMBER 21. NEW NOTE EFFECTIVE MAR 16 2004: THE GLOSSARY FORMERLY FOUND AT THIS LOCATION WILL NO LONGER BE TRANSMITTED AS PART OF THIS MESSAGE. IF YOU WISH TO SEE THE DEFINITIONS OF TERMS USED IN THESE MESSAGES... PLEASE GO TO THE CPC WEB PAGE AT (USE LOWER CASE) HTTP://WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV AND FOLLOW THE APPROPRIATE LINKS. ANALOGS TO THE 5 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 3 DAYS AGO (D-3) FOR THE REGION FROM 20N to 70N LATITUDE AND 175E to 60W LONGITUDE INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES: 19680829 - 19680918 - 19520913 - 19870918 - 19960909 ANALOGS TO THE 7 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 4 DAYS AGO (D-4) FOR THE REGION FROM 20N to 70N LATITUDE AND 175E to 60W LONGITUDE INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES: 19680829 - 19680917 - 19850824 - 19530820 - 19970910 6 to 10 day Outlook Table OUTLOOK FOR SEP 10 - 14, 2006 STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN WASHINGTON A B OREGON N N NRN CALIF N N SRN CALIF N N IDAHO A N NEVADA N N W MONTANA A B E MONTANA A B WYOMING N N UTAH N N ARIZONA N N COLORADO B N NEW MEXICO B N N DAKOTA A B S DAKOTA N N NEBRASKA N N KANSAS N N OKLAHOMA N N N TEXAS N N S TEXAS A B W TEXAS N B MINNESOTA N N IOWA N N MISSOURI N A ARKANSAS N N LOUISIANA N N WISCONSIN B A ILLINOIS N A MISSISSIPPI B N MICHIGAN B A INDIANA N A OHIO N A KENTUCKY N A TENNESSEE B N ALABAMA B N NEW YORK B A VERMONT B A NEW HAMP B A MAINE B A MASS N A CONN N A RHODE IS N A PENN N A NEW JERSEY N A W VIRGINIA N A MARYLAND N A DELAWARE N A VIRGINIA N A N CAROLINA B N S CAROLINA B N GEORGIA B B FL PNHDL B B FL PENIN B B AK N SLOPE N N AK ALEUTIAN A N AK WESTERN B A AK INT BSN N A AK S INT N A AK SO COAST A A AK PNHDL B A 8 to 14 day Outlook Table OUTLOOK FOR SEP 12 - 18, 2006 STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN WASHINGTON A N OREGON N N NRN CALIF N N SRN CALIF N N IDAHO N N NEVADA N N W MONTANA A B E MONTANA A B WYOMING N N UTAH N N ARIZONA N N COLORADO N N NEW MEXICO N N N DAKOTA A B S DAKOTA A N NEBRASKA N N KANSAS N A OKLAHOMA A N N TEXAS A B S TEXAS A B W TEXAS A B MINNESOTA A B IOWA N A MISSOURI N A ARKANSAS A N LOUISIANA A B WISCONSIN A N ILLINOIS N A MISSISSIPPI N B MICHIGAN N B INDIANA N A OHIO N N KENTUCKY N N TENNESSEE N N ALABAMA N B NEW YORK N N VERMONT N N NEW HAMP B N MAINE B N MASS B N CONN N N RHODE IS B N PENN N B NEW JERSEY N N W VIRGINIA N N MARYLAND N N DELAWARE N N VIRGINIA N N N CAROLINA N N S CAROLINA N B GEORGIA B B FL PNHDL B B FL PENIN B N AK N SLOPE N N AK ALEUTIAN B N AK WESTERN B A AK INT BSN N N AK S INT N A AK SO COAST N A AK PNHDL B A LEGEND TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN A - ABOVE N - NEAR NORMAL A - ABOVE N - NEAR MEDIAN B - BELOW B - BELOW THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS PMDMRD. $$