PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSIONS FOR 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD 300 PM EDT TUE AUG 29 2006 6-10 DAY OUTLOOK VALID FOR SEP 04 - 08 2006 TODAY THE GFS 0Z ENSEMBLE MEAN AND THE GFS SUPERENSEMBLE MEAN WERE MISSING AS WERE SOME OF THE TOOLS THAT ARE DERIVED FROM THEM. SO THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS MADE FROM THE BEST AVAILABLE SOLUTIONS BASED ON RECENT ANOMALY CORRELATION SCORES. THE AVAILABLE MODELS ARE AGAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE PHASE OF THE PREDICTED FEATURES OF THE 500-HPA HEIGHT PATTERN OVER THE PACIFIC - NORTH AMERICA REGION, THOUGH THERE ARE NOTICEABLE DIFFERENCES IN THE AMPLITUDE OF MANY OF THE FEATURES, WITH THE OPERATIONAL MODELS CONSISTENTLY HAVING STRONGER AMPLITUDES THAN THE ENSMEBLE MEANS AND THE DAVA. THE MAIN FEATURES OF THE CIRCULATION ARE VERY SIMILAR TO THOSE IN YESTERDAY'S PROGS, WITH A STRONG POLAR VORTEX SLIGHTLY TO THE SIBERIAN SIDE OF THE NORTH POLE, STRONG HIGHER-MIDDLE LATITUDE BLOCKING RIDGES NEAR THE TIP OF THE ALEUTIANS, THE WESTERN SHORE OF HUDSON BAY, AND CENTRAL RUSSIA, AND MODERATELY STRONG TROUGHS OVER THE CENTRAL PACIFIC NORTH OF HAWAII AND EXTENDING FROM THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES TO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. A MODERATE RIDGE WITH ABOVE NORMAL 500-HPA HEIGHTS ALSO IS INDICATED FOR THE WESTERN U.S. AND THE NORTHERN ROCKIES, WITH ITS POSITIVE HEIGHT ANOMALIES JOINING TO THE CANADAIN BLOCK. THE FUTURE PATH OF ERNESTO, FORECAST TODAY BY TPC TO PROBABLY REMAIN A TROPICAL STORM , WAS CONSIDERED ESPECIALLY IN THE PRECIPITATION FORECAST FOR THE NORTHEASTERN U.S. THE LARGER-SCALE SYNOPTIC PATTERN ALSO FAVORS ABOVE MEDIAN PRECIPITATION FOR MOST OF THIS AREA IN ANY CASE. TODAYS OFFICIAL 500-HPA BLEND CONSISTS OF 10 PERCENT OF TODAY'S OPERATIONAL 0Z GFS CENTERED ON DAY 8...10 PERCENT OF TODAY'S OPERATIONAL 6Z GFS CENTERED ON DAY 8...5 PERCENT OF TODAY'S OPERATIONAL ECMWF CENTERED ON DAY 7...5 PERCENT OF TODAY'S DAVA CENTERED ON DAY 8...30 PERCENT OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8...10 PERCENT OF TODAY'S CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8...AND 30 PERCENT OF TODAY'S EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 7. MODEL(S) OF THE DAY: 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN AND ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN (TIED) FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD IS NEAR AVERAGE ... 4 ON A SCALE OF 1 TO 5... DUE TO GOOD PHASE AGREEMENT AND CONSISTENCY WITH YESTERDAY'S MODEL FORECAST, OFFSET SLIGHTLY BY DIFFERENCES IN AMPLITUDE AND AN INCOMPLETE SET OF AVAILABLE MODELS. THE 6-10 DAY TEMPERATURE PROG IS BASED ON THE KLEIN... NEURAL NET AND ANALOG SPECIFICATIONS FROM THE OFFICIAL BLEND. THE CPC AUTO TEMPERATURE FORECAST AND THE CDC TEMPERATURE FORECAST WERE ALSO USED TODAY. THE 6-10 DAY PRECIPITATION PROG IS BASED ON THE ANALOG AND NEURAL NET SPECIFICATIONS FROM THE OFFICIAL BLEND... THE EMC AND CPC CALIBRATED PRECIPITATION PERCENTAGES FROM THE GFS ENSEMBLE... AND ON A SUBJECTIVE REVIEW OF GENERAL STORM TRACKS AND PRECIPITATION AREAS PREDICTED BY RECENT GFS MODEL RUNS. THE CPC AUTO PRECIPITATION FORECAST AND THE CDC PRECIPITATION FORECAST WERE ALSO USED TODAY. 8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR SEP 06 - 12 2006: DURING WEEK 2 THE AVAILABLE MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN DECENT AGREEMENT, THOUGH AGAIN THERE ARE LARGE DIFFERENCES ESPECIALLY IN THE AMPLITUDE OF THE FORECAST FEATURES. THE PHASES OF SOME OF THE OPERATIONAL MODELS ARE ALSO RATHER DIFFERENT, EXPECIALLY WITH REGRARD TO THE POLAR LOW AND THE BLOCK OVER SOUTHERN CANADA. AS WITH THE 6-10 DAY FORECAST, SEVERAL OF THE OFTEN SLIGHTLY BETTER MODELS WERE MISSING. THE FACT THAT THE AMPLITUDE OF FEATURES PREDICTED BY THE ENSEMBLE MEANS WAS MUCH LESS THAN THAT OF THE INDIVIDUAL OPERATIONAL RUNS SUGGESTS THAT THERE IS A VERY LARGE SPREAD AMONG THE MEMEBERS AND CONSEQUENTLY MUCH UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST PATTERN. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST MAP SHOWS A PATTERN NOT MUCH DIFFERENT FROM THAT FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD, BUT WITH LOWER AMPLITUDE JUST ABOUT EVERYWHERE. ALTHOUGH ERNESTO WILL BE LONG GONE BY THE BEGINNING OF THIS PERIOD, THE FORECAST TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION ANOMALY PATTERNS THAT ARE SIMILAR TO THOSE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD WOULD STILL IMPLY RELATIVELY WET CONDITIONS CONTINUING IN MUCH OF THE NORTHEAST WITH EASTERLY ANOMALOUS FLOW AND SLUGGISH BUT WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEMS LINGERING IN THE AREA. THE OFFICIAL 8-14 DAY HEIGHT PROG CONSISTS OF 10 PERCENT OF TODAY'S OPERATIONAL 0Z GFS CENTERED ON DAY 11...10 PERCENT OF TODAY'S OPERATIONAL 6Z GFS CENTERED ON DAY 11...5 PERCENT OF YESTERDAY'S OPERATIONAL 18Z GFS CENTERED ON DAY 10...5 PERCENT OF TODAY'S DAVA CENTERED ON DAY 11...40 PERCENT OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11...AND 30 PERCENT OF TODAY'S CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11. FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD IS SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE TODAY... 2 ON A SCALE OF 1 TO 5... DUE TO REASONABLE MODEL AGREEMENT, OFFSET BY RATHER POOR RECENT MODEL PERFORMANCE AND THE LARGE SPREAD AND UNCERTAINTY IMPLIED BY THE FACT THAT THE ENSEMBLE MEANS HAVE MUCH WEAKER AMPLITUDES THAN THE INDIVIDUAL EXTENDED OPERATIONAL RUNS. THE 8-14 DAY TEMPERATURE PROG IS BASED ON THE KLEIN... NEURAL NET... AND ANALOG SPECIFICATIONS FROM THE OFFICIAL BLEND. THE CPC AUTO TEMPERATURE FORECAST AND THE CDC REFORECAST TEMPERATURE TOOL WERE ALSO USED. THE 8-14 DAY PRECIPITATION PROG IS BASED ON THE ANALOG AND NEURAL NET SPECIFICATIONS FROM THE OFFICIAL BLEND... AND THE EMC AND CPC CALIBRATED PRECIPITATION PERCENTAGES FROM THE GFS ENSEMBLE. THE CPC AUTO FORECAST AND THE CDC REFORECAST TOOL WERE ALSO USED TODAY. FORECASTER: WAGNER NOTES: OPERATIONAL CHANGE: AS OF JULY 5 2005 SHADED MAPS HAVE REPLACED THE CONTOUR-ONLY MAPS ON THE CPC WEB SITE. THE CONTOURED MAPS ARE STILL AVAILABLE AT THEIR CURRENT FILE NAMES - SO DIRECT-LINKED USERS ARE NOT AFFECTED. AWIPS GRAPHICS ARE ALSO NOT AFFECTED BY THIS CHANGE. AUTOMATED FORECASTS ARE ISSUED ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. OTHERWISE - FORECASTS INCORPORATE FORECASTER INPUT. THE NOTATION FOR THE CATEGORICAL FORECAST INDICATED ON THE MAPS IS THE SAME AS THAT IN THE TABLES: A-ABOVE N-NEAR NORMAL B-BELOW IN THE SOUTHWEST AND OTHER CLIMATOLOGICALLY DRY REGIONS - THERE WILL BE A GREATER THAN 33.3% CHANCE OF NO PRECIPITATION AND OCCASIONALLY EVEN A NORMAL (I.E. MEDIAN) VALUE OF ZERO - ESPECIALLY DURING THE DRY SEASONS. IN SUCH CASES A FORECAST OF NEAR NORMAL IS EFFECTIVELY A FORECAST OF LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION. THE NARRATIVE DESCRIPTION OF THE FORECAST PATTERNS FOR TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION FOR BOTH THE 6-10 OR 8-14 DAY PERIODS HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED. THE STATE TABLES FOR BOTH THE 6-10 AND 8-14 DAY PERIODS ARE NOW CONTAINED IN THIS MESSAGE...AVAILABLE AS PMDMRD ON AWIPS. THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER USES 1971-2000 BASE PERIOD MEANS FOR TEMPERATURE...PRECIPITATION...AND 500-HPA HEIGHTS AS REFERENCE IN THE CLIMATE OUTLOOKS. THE NEXT SET OF LONG-LEAD MONTHLY AND SEASONAL OUTLOOKS WILL BE RELEASED ON SEPTEMBER 21. AN UPDATED MONTHLY FORECAST FOR SEPTEMBER WILL BE RELEASED THIS THURSDAY AUGUST 31. NEW NOTE EFFECTIVE MAR 16 2004: THE GLOSSARY FORMERLY FOUND AT THIS LOCATION WILL NO LONGER BE TRANSMITTED AS PART OF THIS MESSAGE. IF YOU WISH TO SEE THE DEFINITIONS OF TERMS USED IN THESE MESSAGES... PLEASE GO TO THE CPC WEB PAGE AT (USE LOWER CASE) HTTP://WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV AND FOLLOW THE APPROPRIATE LINKS. ANALOGS TO THE 5 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 3 DAYS AGO (D-3) FOR THE REGION FROM 20N to 70N LATITUDE AND 175E to 60W LONGITUDE INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES: 19880912 - 19850823 - 19660904 - 19750904 - 19850817 ANALOGS TO THE 7 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 4 DAYS AGO (D-4) FOR THE REGION FROM 20N to 70N LATITUDE AND 175E to 60W LONGITUDE INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES: 19850823 - 19660904 - 19750904 - 19850817 - 19870902 6 to 10 day Outlook Table OUTLOOK FOR SEP 04 - 08, 2006 STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN WASHINGTON A B OREGON A B NRN CALIF A B SRN CALIF A B IDAHO A B NEVADA A B W MONTANA A B E MONTANA A B WYOMING A N UTAH A B ARIZONA A B COLORADO B A NEW MEXICO B A N DAKOTA A B S DAKOTA N B NEBRASKA B N KANSAS B N OKLAHOMA B N N TEXAS B B S TEXAS B B W TEXAS B A MINNESOTA N B IOWA B B MISSOURI B N ARKANSAS B N LOUISIANA N N WISCONSIN N N ILLINOIS B N MISSISSIPPI B N MICHIGAN N N INDIANA B N OHIO B A KENTUCKY B N TENNESSEE B N ALABAMA B N NEW YORK N A VERMONT A A NEW HAMP A A MAINE A A MASS N A CONN N A RHODE IS N A PENN N A NEW JERSEY N A W VIRGINIA B A MARYLAND N A DELAWARE N A VIRGINIA B A N CAROLINA N A S CAROLINA B N GEORGIA B N FL PNHDL N N FL PENIN A A AK N SLOPE B A AK ALEUTIAN A B AK WESTERN N A AK INT BSN N N AK S INT A B AK SO COAST A B AK PNHDL N N 8 to 14 day Outlook Table OUTLOOK FOR SEP 06 - 12, 2006 STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN WASHINGTON A B OREGON A B NRN CALIF A B SRN CALIF A B IDAHO A B NEVADA A B W MONTANA A B E MONTANA A B WYOMING N N UTAH N N ARIZONA N N COLORADO B A NEW MEXICO B A N DAKOTA A B S DAKOTA N N NEBRASKA B N KANSAS B A OKLAHOMA B A N TEXAS B A S TEXAS B N W TEXAS B A MINNESOTA N B IOWA B N MISSOURI B N ARKANSAS B N LOUISIANA N B WISCONSIN N N ILLINOIS B N MISSISSIPPI B N MICHIGAN B N INDIANA B N OHIO B N KENTUCKY B N TENNESSEE B N ALABAMA B N NEW YORK N A VERMONT N A NEW HAMP N A MAINE A N MASS N A CONN N A RHODE IS N A PENN B A NEW JERSEY N A W VIRGINIA B N MARYLAND B A DELAWARE N A VIRGINIA B A N CAROLINA N N S CAROLINA N N GEORGIA N N FL PNHDL N N FL PENIN N N AK N SLOPE B N AK ALEUTIAN N B AK WESTERN B B AK INT BSN N N AK S INT A A AK SO COAST A A AK PNHDL A A LEGEND TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN A - ABOVE N - NEAR NORMAL A - ABOVE N - NEAR MEDIAN B - BELOW B - BELOW THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS PMDMRD. $$