PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSIONS FOR 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD 300 PM EDT MON AUG 28 2006 6-10 DAY OUTLOOK VALID FOR SEP 03 - 07 2006 TODAY SEVERAL OF THE ENSEMBLE MEANS WERE MISSING AND ONE OF THEM HAD AN OBVIOUS ERROR, SO THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS MADE FROM THE BEST AVAILABLE SOLUTIONS BASED ON RECENT ANOMALY CORRELATION SCORES. FORTUNATELY, THE AVAILABLE MODELS ARE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT ON THE PHASE OF THE PREDICTED FEATURES OF THE 500-HPA HEIGHT PATTERN OVER THE PACIFIC - NORTH AMERICA REGION, THOUGH THERE ARE NOTICEABLE DIFFERENCES IN THE AMPLITUDE OF MANY OF THE FEATURES. THE MAIN FEATURES OF THE CIRCULATION ARE A STRONG POLAR VORTEX ON THE SIBERIAN SIDE OF THE ARCTIC OCEAN, STRONG HIGHER-MIDDLE LATITUDE BLOCKING RIDGES NEAR THE TIP OF THE ALEUTIANS, THE EASTERN SHORE OF HUDSON BAY, AND CENTRAL RUSSIA, AND MODERATELY STRONG TROUGHS OVER THE CENTRAL PACIFIC NORTH OF HAWAII AND EXTENDING FROM THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES TO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. A MODERATE RIDGE WITH SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL 500-HPA HEIGHTS ALSO IS INDICATED FOR THE WESTERN U.S. AND THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. THE FUTURE PATH OF ERNESTO, WHICH IS FORECAST TO REGAIN HURRICANE STRENGTH AS PREDICTED FROM THE LATEST GUIDANCE AVILABLE FROM THE TPC AND HPC WAS CONSIDERED, ESPECIALLY IN THE PRECIPITATION FORECAST FOR THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC AND NEW ENGLAND AREAS. THE LARGER-SCALE SYNOPTIC PATTERN ALSO FAVORS ABOVE MEDIAN PRECIPITATION IN MOST OF THESE AREAS IN ANY CASE. TODAYS OFFICIAL 500-HPA BLEND CONSISTS OF 5 PERCENT OF TODAY'S OPERATIONAL 0Z GFS CENTERED ON DAY 8...5 PERCENT OF TODAY'S OPERATIONAL 6Z GFS CENTERED ON DAY 8...10 PERCENT OF TODAY'S OPERATIONAL ECMWF CENTERED ON DAY 7...10 PERCENT OF TODAY'S DAVA CENTERED ON DAY 8...30 PERCENT OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8...20 PERCENT OF YESTERDAY'S 12Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 7...AND 20 PERCENT OF TODAY'S EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 7. MODEL(S) OF THE DAY: 0Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD IS NEAR AVERAGE ... 3 ON A SCALE OF 1 TO 5... DUE TO GOOD PHASE AGREEMENT OFFSET BY DIFFERENCES IN AMPLITUDE AND AN INCOMPLETE SET OF AVAILABLE MODELS. THE 6-10 DAY TEMPERATURE PROG IS BASED ON THE KLEIN... NEURAL NET AND ANALOG SPECIFICATIONS FROM THE OFFICIAL BLEND. THE CPC AUTO TEMPERATURE FORECAST AND THE CDC TEMPERATURE FORECAST WERE ALSO USED TODAY. THE 6-10 DAY PRECIPITATION PROG IS BASED ON THE ANALOG AND NEURAL NET SPECIFICATIONS FROM THE OFFICIAL BLEND... THE EMC CALIBRATED PRECIPITATION PERCENTAGES FROM THE GFS ENSEMBLE... AND ON A SUBJECTIVE REVIEW OF GENERAL STORM TRACKS AND PRECIPITATION AREAS PREDICTED BY RECENT GFS MODEL RUNS. THE CPC AUTO PRECIPITATION FORECAST AND THE CDC PRECIPITATION FORECAST WERE ALSO USED TODAY. THE CPC CALIBRATED PRECIPITATION PERCENTAGES WAS NOT AVAILABLE. 8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR SEP 05 - 11 2006: DURING WEEK 2 THE MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT, THOUGH AGAIN THERE ARE ENOUGH DIFFERENCES ESPECIALLY IN THE AMPLITUDE OF THE FORECAST FEATURES TO DIMINISH THE CONFIDENCE LEVEL TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL. AS WITH THE 6-10 DAY FORECAST, SEVERAL OF THE USUALLY BETTER MODELS WERE MISSING. AS IS COMMONLY THE CASE IN SUMMER, MOST OF THE MODERATE AND STRONG HEIGHT ANOMALIES ARE LOCATED NEAR AND POLEWARD OF 50N LATITUDE, WITH ONLY WEAK ANOMALIES ACROSS THE CONUS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST MAP SHOWS A PATTERN NOT MUCH DIFFERENT FROM THAT FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD. THE MAIN CHANGES ARE A DECREASE IN AMPLITUDE OF THE STRONG BLOCKING RIDGE CENTERED NEAR THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS AND A DEEPENING OF THE IMMEDIATELY DOWNSTREAM TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL PACIFIC NORTH OF HAWAII. THE POSITIVE ANOMALY CENTER ASSOCIATED WITH THE BLOCKING RIDGE OVER CANADA IS PREDICTED TO RETROGRADE SLIGHTLY FROM THE EASTERN TO THE WESTERN SHORE OF HUDSON BAY AND WEAKEN SOMEWHAT. ALTHOUGH ERNESTO WILL PROBABLY BE LONG GONE BY THE BEGINNING OF THIS PERIOD, THE FORECAST TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION ANOMALY PATTERNS ARE SIMILAR TO THOSE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD DUE TO THE SIMILARITY OF PHASE OF THE PREDICTED MIDDLE LATITUDE CIRCULATION PATTERN. THE OFFICIAL 8-14 DAY HEIGHT PROG CONSISTS OF 10 PERCENT OF TODAY'S OPERATIONAL 0Z GFS CENTERED ON DAY 11...20 PERCENT OF TODAY'S OPERATIONAL 6Z GFS CENTERED ON DAY 11...20 PERCENT OF YESTERDAY'S OPERATIONAL 18Z GFS CENTERED ON DAY 10...10 PERCENT OF TODAY'S DAVA CENTERED ON DAY 11...AND 40 PERCENT OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11. FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD IS SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE TODAY... 2 ON A SCALE OF 1 TO 5... DUE TO REASONABLE MODEL AGREEMENT, OFFSET BY RATHER POOR RECENT MODEL PERFORMANCE AND THE FACT THAT MANY OF THE USUALLY BETTER MODELS FOR THE WEEK TWO FORECAST SUCH AS THE 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN, THE GFS SUPERENSEMBLE MEAN, AND THE CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN, WERE NOT AVAILABLE. THE 8-14 DAY TEMPERATURE PROG IS BASED ON THE KLEIN... NEURAL NET... AND ANALOG SPECIFICATIONS FROM THE OFFICIAL BLEND. THE CPC AUTO TEMPERATURE FORECAST AND THE CDC REFORECAST TEMPERATURE TOOL WERE ALSO USED. THE 8-14 DAY PRECIPITATION PROG IS BASED ON THE ANALOG AND NEURAL NET SPECIFICATIONS FROM THE OFFICIAL BLEND... AND THE EMC CALIBRATED PRECIPITATION PERCENTAGES FROM THE GFS ENSEMBLE. THE CPC AUTO FORECAST AND THE CDC REFORECAST TOOL WERE ALSO USED TODAY, BUT THE CPC CALIBRATED PRECIPITATION PERCENTAGE TOOL WAS NOT AVAILABLE TODAY. FORECASTER: WAGNER NOTES: OPERATIONAL CHANGE: AS OF JULY 5 2005 SHADED MAPS HAVE REPLACED THE CONTOUR-ONLY MAPS ON THE CPC WEB SITE. THE CONTOURED MAPS ARE STILL AVAILABLE AT THEIR CURRENT FILE NAMES - SO DIRECT-LINKED USERS ARE NOT AFFECTED. AWIPS GRAPHICS ARE ALSO NOT AFFECTED BY THIS CHANGE. AUTOMATED FORECASTS ARE ISSUED ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. OTHERWISE - FORECASTS INCORPORATE FORECASTER INPUT. THE NOTATION FOR THE CATEGORICAL FORECAST INDICATED ON THE MAPS IS THE SAME AS THAT IN THE TABLES: A-ABOVE N-NEAR NORMAL B-BELOW IN THE SOUTHWEST AND OTHER CLIMATOLOGICALLY DRY REGIONS - THERE WILL BE A GREATER THAN 33.3% CHANCE OF NO PRECIPITATION AND OCCASIONALLY EVEN A NORMAL (I.E. MEDIAN) VALUE OF ZERO - ESPECIALLY DURING THE DRY SEASONS. IN SUCH CASES A FORECAST OF NEAR NORMAL IS EFFECTIVELY A FORECAST OF LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION. THE NARRATIVE DESCRIPTION OF THE FORECAST PATTERNS FOR TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION FOR BOTH THE 6-10 OR 8-14 DAY PERIODS HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED. THE STATE TABLES FOR BOTH THE 6-10 AND 8-14 DAY PERIODS ARE NOW CONTAINED IN THIS MESSAGE...AVAILABLE AS PMDMRD ON AWIPS. THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER USES 1971-2000 BASE PERIOD MEANS FOR TEMPERATURE...PRECIPITATION...AND 500-HPA HEIGHTS AS REFERENCE IN THE CLIMATE OUTLOOKS. THE NEXT SET OF LONG-LEAD MONTHLY AND SEASONAL OUTLOOKS WILL BE RELEASED ON SEPTEMBER 21. NEW NOTE EFFECTIVE MAR 16 2004: THE GLOSSARY FORMERLY FOUND AT THIS LOCATION WILL NO LONGER BE TRANSMITTED AS PART OF THIS MESSAGE. IF YOU WISH TO SEE THE DEFINITIONS OF TERMS USED IN THESE MESSAGES... PLEASE GO TO THE CPC WEB PAGE AT (USE LOWER CASE) HTTP://WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV AND FOLLOW THE APPROPRIATE LINKS. ANALOGS TO THE 5 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 3 DAYS AGO (D-3) FOR THE REGION FROM 20N to 70N LATITUDE AND 175E to 60W LONGITUDE INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES: 19850823 - 19880911 - 19750904 - 19660903 - 19850816 ANALOGS TO THE 7 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 4 DAYS AGO (D-4) FOR THE REGION FROM 20N to 70N LATITUDE AND 175E to 60W LONGITUDE INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES: 19850823 - 19870902 - 19750905 - 19970816 - 19850816 6 to 10 day Outlook Table OUTLOOK FOR SEP 03 - 07, 2006 STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN WASHINGTON A B OREGON A B NRN CALIF A B SRN CALIF A B IDAHO A B NEVADA A B W MONTANA A B E MONTANA A B WYOMING N N UTAH N N ARIZONA N N COLORADO B A NEW MEXICO B A N DAKOTA N B S DAKOTA B B NEBRASKA B N KANSAS B A OKLAHOMA B A N TEXAS N B S TEXAS A B W TEXAS B A MINNESOTA N B IOWA B B MISSOURI B N ARKANSAS N N LOUISIANA A B WISCONSIN B N ILLINOIS B N MISSISSIPPI N B MICHIGAN B A INDIANA B N OHIO B N KENTUCKY B N TENNESSEE B N ALABAMA N N NEW YORK N A VERMONT N A NEW HAMP N A MAINE A N MASS N A CONN N A RHODE IS N A PENN N A NEW JERSEY N A W VIRGINIA B N MARYLAND N A DELAWARE N A VIRGINIA N A N CAROLINA N A S CAROLINA N N GEORGIA N N FL PNHDL A N FL PENIN A N AK N SLOPE B A AK ALEUTIAN A B AK WESTERN N B AK INT BSN B N AK S INT N B AK SO COAST A B AK PNHDL N N 8 to 14 day Outlook Table OUTLOOK FOR SEP 05 - 11, 2006 STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN WASHINGTON A B OREGON A B NRN CALIF A B SRN CALIF A B IDAHO A B NEVADA A B W MONTANA A B E MONTANA A B WYOMING N N UTAH N N ARIZONA N A COLORADO B A NEW MEXICO B A N DAKOTA N N S DAKOTA N N NEBRASKA B A KANSAS B A OKLAHOMA B A N TEXAS B N S TEXAS N N W TEXAS B A MINNESOTA N N IOWA B B MISSOURI B N ARKANSAS B N LOUISIANA N N WISCONSIN N B ILLINOIS B B MISSISSIPPI N N MICHIGAN N B INDIANA B B OHIO B B KENTUCKY B N TENNESSEE B N ALABAMA N N NEW YORK N N VERMONT N N NEW HAMP N N MAINE A B MASS N N CONN N N RHODE IS N N PENN N N NEW JERSEY N A W VIRGINIA B N MARYLAND N A DELAWARE N A VIRGINIA N N N CAROLINA N A S CAROLINA N N GEORGIA N N FL PNHDL N N FL PENIN A N AK N SLOPE B N AK ALEUTIAN N B AK WESTERN B B AK INT BSN N N AK S INT A N AK SO COAST A A AK PNHDL A A LEGEND TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN A - ABOVE N - NEAR NORMAL A - ABOVE N - NEAR MEDIAN B - BELOW B - BELOW THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS PMDMRD. $$