PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSIONS FOR 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD 300 PM EDT MON AUG 21 2006 6-10 DAY OUTLOOK VALID FOR AUG 27 - 31 2006 TODAYS ENSEMBLE MEANS AND DETERMINISTIC SOLUTIONS ARE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT ON THE PREDICTED FEATURES OF THE 500-HPA HEIGHT PATTERN OVER THE PACIFIC NORTH AMERICA REGION. THE 0Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN INDICATES A TROUGH-RIDGE-TROUGH SETUP FROM WEST TO EAST OVER THE CONUS... WHILE THE SINGLE 0Z GFS HIGH RESOLUTION RUN HAS A SIMILAR THOUGH LESS AMPLIFIED LONG WAVE PATTERN. THE 0Z GFS RUN, IN ADDITION TO MOST OF TODAYS OTHER MODEL SOLUTIONS, ANTICIPATES A BROAD TROUGH ACROSS ALASKA AND THE ADJACENT GULF OF ALASKA. IN GENERAL, ALASKA HAS EXPERIENCED FREQUENT UPPER AIR TROUGHS (AS WELL AS LITTLE WILDFIRE ACTIVITY SO FAR THIS SUMMER) AND IT LOOKS AS THOUGH THIS PATTERN WILL CONTINUE. THE EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN FORECASTS FAST ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE MID-LATITUDES OF NORTH AMERICA AND ADJACENT OCEANIC AREAS, AND INDICATES A BREAK IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S.. MONSOONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH SIGNIFICANTLY DURING THIS FORECAST PERIOD, IN CONTRAST TO THE VERY ACTIVE PERIOD IN RECENT WEEKS WHERE PLACES LIKE EL PASO EXPERIENCED SEVERE FLOODING. THE 6Z GFS AND THE OPERATIONAL ECMWF SOLUTIONS ARE REASONABLY SIMILAR TO THE SOLUTIONS ALREADY NOTED ABOVE, THOUGH WITH MORE EMPHASIS ON THE WESTERN U.S. TROUGH, AND ONLY A VERY SHALLOW TROUGH EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. OVERALL, TODAYS 500- HPA BLENDED HEIGHT PROG SHOWS MANY SIMILARITIES WITH THE MOST RECENT 5-DAY MEAN OBSERVED HEIGHT PATTERN, THOUGH WITHOUT THE 5940 METER HEIGHT CONTOUR NEAR ARKANSAS, WHICH HAS BEEN ASSOCIATED WITH A PROLONGED PERIOD OF BLISTERING HEAT AND HUMIDITY. TODAYS OFFICIAL 500-HPA BLEND CONSISTS OF 15 PERCENT OF TODAY'S OPERATIONAL 0Z GFS CENTERED ON DAY 8...25 PERCENT OF TODAY'S OPERATIONAL 6Z GFS CENTERED ON DAY 8...15 PERCENT OF TODAY'S OPERATIONAL ECMWF CENTERED ON DAY 7...20 PERCENT OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8...AND 25 PERCENT OF TODAY'S EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 7. MODEL(S) OF THE DAY: NO PREFERENCE FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD IS ABOVE AVERAGE ... 4 ON A SCALE OF 1 TO 5... DUE TO REASONABLY GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG THE MODELS AND A FAIRLY PERSISTENT LARGE SCALE CIRCULATION PATTERN. THE 6-10 DAY TEMPERATURE PROG IS BASED ON THE KLEIN... NEURAL NET AND ANALOG SPECIFICATIONS FROM THE OFFICIAL BLEND... THE CPC AUTO TEMPERATURE FORECAST... AND THE CDC TEMPERATURE TOOL. IN ADDITION, THE DAILY PROGS FROM THE GFS RUN INITIALIZED AT 06 UTC WERE ALSO CONSULTED... NAMELY THE 1000 TO 500 MB THICKNESS ADVECTION MAPS, PRECIPITATION AREAS, AND THE INDIVIDUAL STORM TRACKS. THE 6-10 DAY PRECIPITATION PROG IS BASED ON THE ANALOG SPECIFICATIONS FROM THE OFFICIAL BLEND... CPC AUTO PRECIPITATION FORECAST ...THE CDC REFORECAST TOOL... THE 6Z GFS MODEL OUTPUT PRECIPITATION AREAS... AND THE EMC CALIBRATED PRECIPITATION PERCENTAGES FROM THE GFS ENSEMBLE. 8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR AUG 29 - SEP 04, 2006: DURING WEEK 2... THE MODEL RUNS ARE CONTINUING THE GENERAL THEME OF A WESTERN TROUGH - CENTRAL RIDGE - AND NORTHEASTERN TROUGH... IN ADDITION TO A MEAN TROUGH LOCATED OVER ALASKA. THERE ARE SOME MINOR DIFFERENCES IN REGARDS TO THE DEPTH OF THE NORTHEASTERN U.S. TROUGH. AS WAS DONE WITH THE 6-10 DAY TEMPERATURE PROG, THE COVERAGE OF BELOW NORMAL SURFACE TEMPERATURES OVER ALASKA DURING WEEK 2 WAS EXPANDED CONSIDERABLY RELATIVE TO WHAT THE GUIDANCE WAS SHOWING. THIS IS BASED ON RECENTLY OBSERVED HEIGHT AND HEIGHT ANOMALY PATTERNS AND THEIR ASSOCIATED MEAN TEMPERATURE PATTERNS OBSERVED AT THE SURFACE. THE OFFICIAL 8-14 DAY HEIGHT PROG CONSISTS OF 10 PERCENT OF TODAY'S OPERATIONAL 0Z GFS CENTERED ON DAY 11...10 PERCENT OF TODAY'S OPERATIONAL 6Z GFS CENTERED ON DAY 11...20 PERCENT OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11...20 PERCENT OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11...AND 40 PERCENT OF TODAY'S GFS SUPERENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11. FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD IS ABOVE AVERAGE TODAY... 4 ON A SCALE OF 1 TO 5... DUE TO GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG MODEL SOLUTIONS. THE PREDICTED HEIGHT ANOMALY PATTERN THOUGH IS STILL VERY MODEST ACROSS THE LOWER 48 STATES. THE 8-14 DAY TEMPERATURE PROG IS BASED ON THE KLEIN... NEURAL NET... AND ANALOG SPECIFICATIONS FROM THE OFFICIAL BLEND... THE CPC AUTO TEMPERATURE FORECAST... THE CDC TEMPERATURE TOOL... AND ON A SUBJECTIVE INTERPRETATION OF TODAYS 12Z GFS THICKNESS ADVECTION PATTERNS. THE 8-14 DAY PRECIPITATION PROG IS BASED ON THE CPC AUTO PRECIPITATION FORECAST...THE CDC TOOL... A SUBJECTIVE INTERPRETATION OF THE MEAN STORM TRACKS AND RAINFALL PATTERNS PREDICTED BY TODAYS 12Z GFS MODEL RUN ... AND EMC CALIBRATED PRECIPITATION PERCENTAGES FROM THE GFS ENSEMBLE. FORECASTER: ARTUSA NOTES: OPERATIONAL CHANGE: AS OF JULY 5 2005 SHADED MAPS HAVE REPLACED THE CONTOUR-ONLY MAPS ON THE CPC WEB SITE. THE CONTOURED MAPS ARE STILL AVAILABLE AT THEIR CURRENT FILE NAMES - SO DIRECT-LINKED USERS ARE NOT AFFECTED. AWIPS GRAPHICS ARE ALSO NOT AFFECTED BY THIS CHANGE. AUTOMATED FORECASTS ARE ISSUED ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. OTHERWISE - FORECASTS INCORPORATE FORECASTER INPUT. THE NOTATION FOR THE CATEGORICAL FORECAST INDICATED ON THE MAPS IS THE SAME AS THAT IN THE TABLES: A-ABOVE N-NEAR NORMAL B-BELOW IN THE SOUTHWEST AND OTHER CLIMATOLOGICALLY DRY REGIONS - THERE WILL BE A GREATER THAN 33.3% CHANCE OF NO PRECIPITATION AND OCCASIONALLY EVEN A NORMAL (I.E. MEDIAN) VALUE OF ZERO - ESPECIALLY DURING THE DRY SEASONS. IN SUCH CASES A FORECAST OF NEAR NORMAL IS EFFECTIVELY A FORECAST OF LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION. THE NARRATIVE DESCRIPTION OF THE FORECAST PATTERNS FOR TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION FOR BOTH THE 6-10 OR 8-14 DAY PERIODS HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED. THE STATE TABLES FOR BOTH THE 6-10 AND 8-14 DAY PERIODS ARE NOW CONTAINED IN THIS MESSAGE...AVAILABLE AS PMDMRD ON AWIPS. THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER USES 1971-2000 BASE PERIOD MEANS FOR TEMPERATURE...PRECIPITATION...AND 500-HPA HEIGHTS AS REFERENCE IN THE CLIMATE OUTLOOKS. THE NEXT SET OF LONG-LEAD MONTHLY AND SEASONAL OUTLOOKS WILL BE RELEASED ON SEPTEMBER 21. NEW NOTE EFFECTIVE MAR 16 2004: THE GLOSSARY FORMERLY FOUND AT THIS LOCATION WILL NO LONGER BE TRANSMITTED AS PART OF THIS MESSAGE. IF YOU WISH TO SEE THE DEFINITIONS OF TERMS USED IN THESE MESSAGES... PLEASE GO TO THE CPC WEB PAGE AT (USE LOWER CASE) HTTP://WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV AND FOLLOW THE APPROPRIATE LINKS. ANALOGS TO THE 5 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 3 DAYS AGO (D-3) FOR THE REGION FROM 20N to 70N LATITUDE AND 175E to 60W LONGITUDE INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES: 19960808 - 19860820 - 19830819 - 19960823 - 19550804 ANALOGS TO THE 7 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 4 DAYS AGO (D-4) FOR THE REGION FROM 20N to 70N LATITUDE AND 175E to 60W LONGITUDE INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES: 19830820 - 19960808 - 19960824 - 19560808 - 19530902 6 to 10 day Outlook Table OUTLOOK FOR AUG 27 - 31, 2006 STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN WASHINGTON B B OREGON N B NRN CALIF N B SRN CALIF N B IDAHO N B NEVADA N B W MONTANA N B E MONTANA A B WYOMING A B UTAH A N ARIZONA A N COLORADO A N NEW MEXICO A N N DAKOTA A N S DAKOTA A N NEBRASKA A N KANSAS A A OKLAHOMA N A N TEXAS N A S TEXAS N N W TEXAS A N MINNESOTA A N IOWA A N MISSOURI A A ARKANSAS A A LOUISIANA N N WISCONSIN A A ILLINOIS A A MISSISSIPPI A N MICHIGAN A A INDIANA A A OHIO A A KENTUCKY A A TENNESSEE A A ALABAMA A N NEW YORK A A VERMONT A A NEW HAMP A A MAINE A A MASS A A CONN A A RHODE IS A A PENN A A NEW JERSEY A A W VIRGINIA A A MARYLAND A A DELAWARE A A VIRGINIA A A N CAROLINA A A S CAROLINA A A GEORGIA A N FL PNHDL A B FL PENIN A B AK N SLOPE N B AK ALEUTIAN A A AK WESTERN N B AK INT BSN N B AK S INT B N AK SO COAST B A AK PNHDL B A 8 to 14 day Outlook Table OUTLOOK FOR AUG 29 - SEP 04, 2006 STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN WASHINGTON B N OREGON B N NRN CALIF N B SRN CALIF N B IDAHO N N NEVADA N B W MONTANA N N E MONTANA A N WYOMING A N UTAH N B ARIZONA N N COLORADO A B NEW MEXICO A N N DAKOTA A A S DAKOTA A N NEBRASKA A N KANSAS A B OKLAHOMA A B N TEXAS A B S TEXAS N N W TEXAS A B MINNESOTA A A IOWA A N MISSOURI A B ARKANSAS A B LOUISIANA N N WISCONSIN A N ILLINOIS A N MISSISSIPPI N N MICHIGAN A N INDIANA A N OHIO A N KENTUCKY A B TENNESSEE A B ALABAMA N N NEW YORK A N VERMONT A N NEW HAMP A N MAINE A N MASS A N CONN A N RHODE IS A N PENN A N NEW JERSEY A N W VIRGINIA A N MARYLAND A N DELAWARE N N VIRGINIA N N N CAROLINA B N S CAROLINA B N GEORGIA B N FL PNHDL N N FL PENIN N N AK N SLOPE B N AK ALEUTIAN N B AK WESTERN N B AK INT BSN B B AK S INT B N AK SO COAST B N AK PNHDL B A LEGEND TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN A - ABOVE N - NEAR NORMAL A - ABOVE N - NEAR MEDIAN B - BELOW B - BELOW THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS PMDMRD. $$