PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSIONS FOR 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD 300 PM EDT FRI AUG 18 2006 6-10 DAY OUTLOOK VALID FOR AUG 24 - 28 2006 TODAYS ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLUTIONS ARE IN REASONABLY GOOD AGREEMENT AS THERE CONTINUES TO BE A TRANSITION IN THE 500-HPA CIRCULATION PATTERN OVER NORTH AMERICA. POSITIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES EXIST FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST OVER WESTERN CANADA INTO THE ALASKAN PANHANDLE. A STRONG NEGATIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALY ACROSS MOST OF EASTERN NORTH AMERICA IS ASSOCIATED WITH A DEEPENING TROUGH FROM HUDSON BAY TO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLY. THE CANADIAN AND ECMWF MODELS GENERALLY SHOW A WEAKER RIDGE IN THE WEST AND A SHALLOW TROUGH IN THE EAST LEADING TO A MORE ZONAL CIRCULATION PATTERN. THE GFS MODEL AND IN PARTICULAR THE 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE AND OPERATIONAL SOLUTIONS HAVE A MORE PRONOUNCED TROUGH, FAVORING COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO THE WESTERN GULF STATES. WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED IN THE SOUTHEAST AND FLORIDA AND ALONG THE COAST OF NEW ENGLAND. VARIATIONS IN THE LOCATION OF THE TROUGH AXIS IN DIFFERENT MODELS AND ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ACCOUNT FOR DIFFERENCES IN THE EXPECTED PRECIPITATION FIELDS. MOISTURE FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO AND THE SOUTHERLY FLOW FAVORS ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION ALONG THE GULF STATES THROUGH FLORIDA AND THE SOUTHEAST COAST. ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE IN THE SOUTHWEST INTO THE LOWER GREAT PLAINS AND WEST TEXAS. ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED IN THE NORTH ATLANTIC STATES WHERE SHORTWAVES ARE FORECAST DURING THE PERIOD. BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED OVER THE WESTERN STATES AND THE UPPER GREAT PLAINS IN THE RIDGE BEHIND THE TROUGH TO THE EAST. OVER ALASKA ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED AHEAD OF A TROUGH FORECAST THERE. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED OVER MUCH OF ALASKA WHERE 500-HPA HEIGHTS ARE GENERALLY ABOVE NORMAL AND FLOW IS SOUTHERLY. TODAYS OFFICIAL 500-HPA BLEND CONSISTS OF 10 PERCENT OF TODAY'S OPERATIONAL 0Z GFS CENTERED ON DAY 8...20 PERCENT OF TODAY'S OPERATIONAL 6Z GFS CENTERED ON DAY 8...10 PERCENT OF TODAY'S DAVA CENTERED ON DAY 8...10 PERCENT OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8...30 PERCENT OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8...AND 20 PERCENT OF TODAY'S GFS SUPERENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8. MODEL(S) OF THE DAY: 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD IS ABOVE AVERAGE ... 4 ON A SCALE OF 1 TO 5... DUE TO REASONABLY GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG THE MODELS AND A CONTINUED LARGE SCALE CIRCULATION PATTERN. THE 6-10 DAY TEMPERATURE PROG IS BASED ON THE KLEIN... AND ANALOG SPECIFICATIONS FROM THE OFFICIAL BLEND... THE CPC AUTO TEMPERATURE FORECAST... AND THE CDC TEMPERATURE TOOL. THE 6-10 DAY PRECIPITATION PROG IS BASED ON THE ANALOG SPECIFICATIONS FROM THE OFFICIAL BLEND... CPC AUTO PRECIPITATION FORECAST...THE CDC TOOL... CALIBRATED PRECIPITATION FROM THE 0Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN... AND EMC CALIBRATED PRECIPITATION PERCENTAGES FROM THE GFS ENSEMBLE. 8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR AUG 26 - SEP 01, 2006: DURING WEEK 2... THE GFS AND CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLUTIONS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A WEAK 500-HPA RIDGE ACROSS THE WEST... AND A WEAK 500-HPA TROUGH OVER THE EAST IN RELATIVE AGREEMENT WITH THE 6-10 DAY FORECAST CIRCULATION. THERE IS A REDUCTION IN THE AMPLITUDE OF THE FLOW PATTERN FROM THE PREDICTED D+8 LONGWAVE PATTERN. THE ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLUTIONS PREDICT POSITIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES OVER THE WESTERN CONUS, CANADA AND ALASKA... AND NEGATIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES FROM THE ALEUTIANS TO THE SOUTH. IN THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS AND NORTHEAST ... 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES ARE NEAR NORMAL. WEAKER 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES PREDICTED BY THE VARIOUS ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLUTIONS AND SPREAD IN THE ENSEMBLE MEMBERS LOWERS THE CONFIDENCE OF THE FORECAST SLIGHTLY. TEMPERATURE PROBABILITIES ARE SIMILAR TO THE D+8 FORECAST. THE WEAK TROUGH OVER EASTERN NORTH AMERICA FAVORS BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE CENTRAL CONUS FROM THE UPPER PLAINS TO WEST TEXAS AND THE WESTERN GULF. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE AGAIN FAVORED IN THE WEST AND ALASKA ... ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO FAVORED ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST AND EASTERN GULF. ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS GENERALLY FAVORED AHEAD OF THE TROUGH IN THE EASTERN CONUS... WHILE BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED IN THE WESTERN CONUS AND UPPER GREAT PLAINS. ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS ONCE AGAIN FAVORED AHEAD OF THE TROUGH IN ALASKA. THE OFFICIAL 8-14 DAY HEIGHT PROG CONSISTS OF 10 PERCENT OF TODAY'S OPERATIONAL 0Z GFS CENTERED ON DAY 11...40 PERCENT OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11...20 PERCENT OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11...AND 30 PERCENT OF TODAY'S GFS SUPERENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11. FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD IS AVERAGE TODAY...3 ON A SCALE OF 1 TO 5... DUE TO GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG MODEL SOLUTIONS ALTHOUGH THERE IS A WEAKER ANOMALY PATTERN. THE 8-14 DAY TEMPERATURE PROG IS BASED ON THE KLEIN... AND ANALOG... SPECIFICATIONS FROM THE OFFICIAL BLEND... THE CPC AUTO TEMPERATURE FORECAST... THE CDC TEMPERATURE TOOL. THE 8-14 DAY PRECIPITATION PROG IS BASED ON THE CPC AUTO PRECIPITATION FORECAST...THE CDC TOOL... CALIBRATED PRECIPITATION FROM THE 0Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN... AND EMC CALIBRATED PRECIPITATION PERCENTAGES FROM THE GFS ENSEMBLE. FORECASTER: COLLINS NOTES: OPERATIONAL CHANGE: AS OF JULY 5 2005 SHADED MAPS HAVE REPLACED THE CONTOUR-ONLY MAPS ON THE CPC WEB SITE. THE CONTOURED MAPS ARE STILL AVAILABLE AT THEIR CURRENT FILE NAMES - SO DIRECT-LINKED USERS ARE NOT AFFECTED. AWIPS GRAPHICS ARE ALSO NOT AFFECTED BY THIS CHANGE. AUTOMATED FORECASTS ARE ISSUED ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. OTHERWISE - FORECASTS INCORPORATE FORECASTER INPUT. THE NOTATION FOR THE CATEGORICAL FORECAST INDICATED ON THE MAPS IS THE SAME AS THAT IN THE TABLES: A-ABOVE N-NEAR NORMAL B-BELOW IN THE SOUTHWEST AND OTHER CLIMATOLOGICALLY DRY REGIONS - THERE WILL BE A GREATER THAN 33.3% CHANCE OF NO PRECIPITATION AND OCCASIONALLY EVEN A NORMAL (I.E. MEDIAN) VALUE OF ZERO - ESPECIALLY DURING THE DRY SEASONS. IN SUCH CASES A FORECAST OF NEAR NORMAL IS EFFECTIVELY A FORECAST OF LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION. THE NARRATIVE DESCRIPTION OF THE FORECAST PATTERNS FOR TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION FOR BOTH THE 6-10 OR 8-14 DAY PERIODS HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED. THE STATE TABLES FOR BOTH THE 6-10 AND 8-14 DAY PERIODS ARE NOW CONTAINED IN THIS MESSAGE...AVAILABLE AS PMDMRD ON AWIPS. THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER USES 1971-2000 BASE PERIOD MEANS FOR TEMPERATURE...PRECIPITATION...AND 500-HPA HEIGHTS AS REFERENCE IN THE CLIMATE OUTLOOKS. THE NEXT SET OF LONG-LEAD MONTHLY AND SEASONAL OUTLOOKS WILL BE RELEASED ON SEPTEMBER 21. NEW NOTE EFFECTIVE MAR 16 2004: THE GLOSSARY FORMERLY FOUND AT THIS LOCATION WILL NO LONGER BE TRANSMITTED AS PART OF THIS MESSAGE. IF YOU WISH TO SEE THE DEFINITIONS OF TERMS USED IN THESE MESSAGES... PLEASE GO TO THE CPC WEB PAGE AT (USE LOWER CASE) HTTP://WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV AND FOLLOW THE APPROPRIATE LINKS. ANALOGS TO THE 5 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 3 DAYS AGO (D-3) FOR THE REGION FROM 20N to 70N LATITUDE AND 175E to 60W LONGITUDE INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES: 19590822 - 19970817 - 19560808 - 19530825 - 19800824 ANALOGS TO THE 7 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 4 DAYS AGO (D-4) FOR THE REGION FROM 20N to 70N LATITUDE AND 175E to 60W LONGITUDE INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES: 19590822 - 19530825 - 19560804 - 19540807 - 19970817 6 to 10 day Outlook Table OUTLOOK FOR AUG 24 - 28, 2006 STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN WASHINGTON A B OREGON A B NRN CALIF A B SRN CALIF A B IDAHO A B NEVADA A B W MONTANA A B E MONTANA N B WYOMING N N UTAH A N ARIZONA A A COLORADO N A NEW MEXICO N A N DAKOTA B B S DAKOTA B N NEBRASKA B N KANSAS B A OKLAHOMA B A N TEXAS N A S TEXAS N N W TEXAS N A MINNESOTA B N IOWA B A MISSOURI B A ARKANSAS B A LOUISIANA B A WISCONSIN B N ILLINOIS B N MISSISSIPPI N A MICHIGAN B N INDIANA B B OHIO B N KENTUCKY B B TENNESSEE N B ALABAMA N A NEW YORK N N VERMONT N A NEW HAMP N A MAINE N A MASS N A CONN N N RHODE IS N N PENN N N NEW JERSEY N N W VIRGINIA N B MARYLAND N B DELAWARE N N VIRGINIA N B N CAROLINA N A S CAROLINA A A GEORGIA A A FL PNHDL A A FL PENIN A A AK N SLOPE A N AK ALEUTIAN N N AK WESTERN A N AK INT BSN A N AK S INT A A AK SO COAST A A AK PNHDL A A 8 to 14 day Outlook Table OUTLOOK FOR AUG 26 - SEP 01, 2006 STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN WASHINGTON A B OREGON A B NRN CALIF A B SRN CALIF A B IDAHO A B NEVADA A B W MONTANA A B E MONTANA N B WYOMING A B UTAH A B ARIZONA A A COLORADO N N NEW MEXICO N A N DAKOTA N B S DAKOTA B B NEBRASKA B N KANSAS B N OKLAHOMA B A N TEXAS N A S TEXAS N A W TEXAS B A MINNESOTA B B IOWA B N MISSOURI B N ARKANSAS B A LOUISIANA B A WISCONSIN B N ILLINOIS B A MISSISSIPPI N A MICHIGAN B A INDIANA B A OHIO N A KENTUCKY B A TENNESSEE N A ALABAMA A A NEW YORK A N VERMONT A N NEW HAMP A N MAINE A N MASS A N CONN A N RHODE IS A N PENN A A NEW JERSEY A N W VIRGINIA N A MARYLAND A A DELAWARE A A VIRGINIA A A N CAROLINA A A S CAROLINA A A GEORGIA A A FL PNHDL A A FL PENIN A N AK N SLOPE N N AK ALEUTIAN N B AK WESTERN N B AK INT BSN A A AK S INT A A AK SO COAST A A AK PNHDL A A LEGEND TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN A - ABOVE N - NEAR NORMAL A - ABOVE N - NEAR MEDIAN B - BELOW B - BELOW THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS PMDMRD. $$