PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSIONS FOR 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD 300 PM EDT TUE AUG 08 2006 6-10 DAY OUTLOOK VALID FOR AUG 14 - 18 2006 TODAYS ENSEMBLE MEAN AND DAVA FORECASTS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE MAIN FEATURES OF THE EXPECTED 500-HPA HEIGHT PATTERN OVER NORTH AMERICA DURING THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD. A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IS FORECAST TO DOMINATE THE SOUTHERN CONUS WHILE A ZONALLY ORIENTED JETSTREAM IS FORECAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER STATES. A TROUGH IS FORECAST TO DOMINATE MOST OF ALASKA DURING THE PERIOD. THE MODELS INDICATE SOME TIMING AND AMPLITUDE DIFFERENCES WITH RESPECT TO INDIVIDUAL SHORTWAVE FEATURES PROGRESSING THROUGH THE NORTHERN JETSTREAM BUT IN GENERAL TROUGHS ARE FORECAST OVER EASTERN CANADA AND ALONG THE WEST COAST WHILE A WEAK RIDGE IS EXPECTED OVER WESTERN CANADA. THE FORECASTS FROM THE OPERATIONAL RUNS OF THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE GENERALLY IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLUTIONS ALTHOUGH THE OPERATIONAL RUNS ARE MORE AMPLIFIED WITH INDIVIDUAL SHORTWAVE FEATURES. THE ECMWF-BASED FORECASTS ARE MORE AMPLIFIED WITH THE TROUGH NEAR THE WEST COAST. 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES OVER THE CONUS ARE GENERALLY FORECAST TO BE QUITE SMALL WITH NEGATIVE HEIGHT ANOMALIES FORECAST OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA AND NEW ENGLAND AND POSITIVE HEIGHT ANOMALIES EXPECTED OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND NORTHERN ALASKA. TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED TO BE ABOVE NORMAL OVER THE EAST/CENTRAL STATES UNDER THE ZONAL FLOW EXPECTED THERE AND ALSO OVER CALIFORNIA DUE TO ABOVE NORMAL SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES CURRENTLY BEING OBSERVED OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST UNDER THE AREA OF BELOW NORMAL HEIGHTS EXPECTED THERE. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO LIKELY ALONG THE PANHANDLE OF ALASKA DUE TO THE FORECAST OF BELOW NORMAL HEIGHTS OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA. PRECIPITATION ACROSS MUCH OF THE EAST IS LIKELY TO BE BELOW NORMAL AS THE MAIN TROUGH AXIS IS FORECAST TO BE EAST OF THE REGION. ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE OVER PARTS OF THE SOUTHWEST DUE TO MONSOONAL FLOW WHICH MAY ALSO LEAD TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES OVER THAT REGION. TODAYS OFFICIAL 500-HPA BLEND CONSISTS OF 5 PERCENT OF TODAY'S OPERATIONAL 0Z GFS CENTERED ON DAY 8...10 PERCENT OF TODAY'S OPERATIONAL 6Z GFS CENTERED ON DAY 8...10 PERCENT OF TODAY'S OPERATIONAL ECMWF CENTERED ON DAY 7...25 PERCENT OF TODAY'S DAVA CENTERED ON DAY 8...30 PERCENT OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8...5 PERCENT OF TODAY'S CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8...AND 15 PERCENT OF TODAY'S EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 7. MODEL(S) OF THE DAY: 0Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD IS BELOW AVERAGE ... 2 ON A SCALE OF 1 TO 5... DUE TO A RELATIVELY FLAT HEIGHT ANOMALY PATTERN AND RELATIVELY POOR AGREEMENT AMONG THE FORECAST TOOLS. THE 6-10 DAY TEMPERATURE PROG IS BASED ON THE KLEIN... ANALOG AND NEURAL NET SPECIFICATIONS FROM THE OFFICIAL BLEND... THE CPC AUTO TEMPERATURE FORECAST... THE CDC TEMPERATURE TOOL... 850-HPA BIAS CORRECTED TEMPERATURES FROM THE OPERATIONAL 0Z GFS... AND THE KLEIN AND NEURAL NET PROABILITIES FROM THE VARIOUS ENSEMBLES. THE 6-10 DAY PRECIPITATION PROG IS BASED ON THE CPC AUTO PRECIPITATION FORECAST...ANALOGS AND NEURAL NET SPECIFICATIONS FROM THE OFFICIAL BLENDED HEIGHTS...THE CDC TOOL... CALIBRATED PRECIPITATION FROM THE 6Z OPERATIONAL GFS AND 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN... AND CPC AND EMC CALIBRATED PRECIPITATION PERCENTAGES FROM THE GFS ENSEMBLE. 8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR AUG 16 - 22 2006: LITTLE OVERALL CHANGE TO THE 500-HPA CIRCULATION PATTERN IS EXPECTED DURING WEEK 2 FROM THAT PREDICTED DURING THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD. HEIGHTS ARE FORECAST TO FALL SLIGHTLY OVER THE SOUTHEAST CONUS AND ALONG THE WEST COAST WHICH LEADS TO A VERY FLAT 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALY PATTERN. A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CONUS WHILE A FAST ZONALLY ORIENTED JETSTREAM IS PROGGED ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER STATES. HEIGHTS OVER MOST OF ALASKA ARE FORECAST TO BE ABOVE NORMAL EXCEPT OVER THE ALEUTIANS WHERE BELOW NORMAL HEIGHTS ARE EXPECTED. THE EVOLVING FLOW PATTERN WILL MAKE MEAN SURFACE CONDITIONS WITHIN THE PERIOD DIFFICULT TO FORECAST... ESPECIALLY FOR PRECIPITATION. THEREFORE MUCH OF THE CONUS IS EXPECTED TO HAVE NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES DURING THE PERIOD. NEW MEXICO IS EXPECTED TO EXPERIENCE BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES DUE TO CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE MONSOONAL FLOW. COASTAL CALIFORNIA IS LIKELY TO HAVE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES DUE TO THE AREA OF ABOVE NORMAL SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST. BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS LIKELY OVER MUCH OF THE EAST/CENTRAL STATES DUE TO SUBSIDENCE ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE TROUGH EXPECTED JUST OFF THE EAST COAST. MOST DEPARTURES FROM NORMAL FOR BOTH TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION ARE LIKELY TO BE SMALL DURING THE PERIOD DUE TO THE WEAK 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES PROGGED. THE OFFICIAL 8-14 DAY HEIGHT PROG CONSISTS OF 5 PERCENT OF TODAY'S OPERATIONAL 0Z GFS CENTERED ON DAY 11...10 PERCENT OF TODAY'S OPERATIONAL 6Z GFS CENTERED ON DAY 11...20 PERCENT OF TODAY'S DAVA CENTERED ON DAY 11...10 PERCENT OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11...30 PERCENT OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11...15 PERCENT OF TODAY'S GFS SUPERENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11...AND 10 PERCENT OF TODAY'S CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11. FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD IS MUCH BELOW AVERAGE TODAY... 1 ON A SCALE OF 1 TO 5... DUE TO AN EXTREMELY FLAT 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALY FIELD AND POOR AGREEMENT AMONG THE FORECAST TOOLS. THE 8-14 DAY TEMPERATURE PROG IS BASED ON THE KLEIN... ANALOG AND NEURAL NET SPECIFICATIONS FROM THE OFFICIAL BLEND... THE CPC AUTO FORECAST... CALIBRATED 2-METER TEMPERATURES FROM THE GFS... BIAS-CORRECTED 850-HPA TEMPERATURES FROM THE 0Z OPERATIONAL GFS AND THE KLEIN AND NEURAL NET PROBABILITIES FROM THE GFS ENSEMBLES. THE 8-14 DAY PRECIPITATION PROG IS BASED ON THE CPC AUTO PRECIPITATION FORECAST...ANALOGS AND NEURAL NET SPECIFICATIONS FROM THE OFFICIAL BLENDED HEIGHTS... THE CDC PRECIPITATION FORECAST TOOL AND CALIBRATED PRECIPITATION FROM THE 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN AND 6Z OPERATIONAL GFS. FORECASTER: SCHECHTER NOTES: OPERATIONAL CHANGE: AS OF JULY 5 2005 SHADED MAPS HAVE REPLACED THE CONTOUR-ONLY MAPS ON THE CPC WEB SITE. THE CONTOURED MAPS ARE STILL AVAILABLE AT THEIR CURRENT FILE NAMES - SO DIRECT-LINKED USERS ARE NOT AFFECTED. AWIPS GRAPHICS ARE ALSO NOT AFFECTED BY THIS CHANGE. AUTOMATED FORECASTS ARE ISSUED ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. OTHERWISE - FORECASTS INCORPORATE FORECASTER INPUT. THE NOTATION FOR THE CATEGORICAL FORECAST INDICATED ON THE MAPS IS THE SAME AS THAT IN THE TABLES: A-ABOVE N-NEAR NORMAL B-BELOW IN THE SOUTHWEST AND OTHER CLIMATOLOGICALLY DRY REGIONS - THERE WILL BE A GREATER THAN 33.3% CHANCE OF NO PRECIPITATION AND OCCASIONALLY EVEN A NORMAL (I.E. MEDIAN) VALUE OF ZERO - ESPECIALLY DURING THE DRY SEASONS. IN SUCH CASES A FORECAST OF NEAR NORMAL IS EFFECTIVELY A FORECAST OF LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION. THE NARRATIVE DESCRIPTION OF THE FORECAST PATTERNS FOR TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION FOR BOTH THE 6-10 OR 8-14 DAY PERIODS HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED. THE STATE TABLES FOR BOTH THE 6-10 AND 8-14 DAY PERIODS ARE NOW CONTAINED IN THIS MESSAGE...AVAILABLE AS PMDMRD ON AWIPS. THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER USES 1971-2000 BASE PERIOD MEANS FOR TEMPERATURE...PRECIPITATION...AND 500-HPA HEIGHTS AS REFERENCE IN THE CLIMATE OUTLOOKS. THE NEXT SET OF LONG-LEAD MONTHLY AND SEASONAL OUTLOOKS WILL BE RELEASED ON AUGUST 17. NEW NOTE EFFECTIVE MAR 16 2004: THE GLOSSARY FORMERLY FOUND AT THIS LOCATION WILL NO LONGER BE TRANSMITTED AS PART OF THIS MESSAGE. IF YOU WISH TO SEE THE DEFINITIONS OF TERMS USED IN THESE MESSAGES... PLEASE GO TO THE CPC WEB PAGE AT (USE LOWER CASE) HTTP://WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV AND FOLLOW THE APPROPRIATE LINKS. ANALOGS TO THE 5 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 3 DAYS AGO (D-3) FOR THE REGION FROM 20N to 70N LATITUDE AND 175E to 60W LONGITUDE INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES: 19910719 - 19890803 - 19750821 - 19640729 - 19510801 ANALOGS TO THE 7 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 4 DAYS AGO (D-4) FOR THE REGION FROM 20N to 70N LATITUDE AND 175E to 60W LONGITUDE INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES: 19910719 - 19750821 - 19950812 - 19620821 - 19920725 6 to 10 day Outlook Table OUTLOOK FOR AUG 14 - 18, 2006 STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN WASHINGTON N N OREGON N N NRN CALIF A N SRN CALIF A N IDAHO N N NEVADA A N W MONTANA N N E MONTANA N N WYOMING N N UTAH N N ARIZONA N N COLORADO B A NEW MEXICO B A N DAKOTA N N S DAKOTA N A NEBRASKA N A KANSAS N A OKLAHOMA A N N TEXAS A N S TEXAS A N W TEXAS N N MINNESOTA N N IOWA A N MISSOURI A N ARKANSAS A B LOUISIANA A N WISCONSIN A N ILLINOIS A N MISSISSIPPI A B MICHIGAN A B INDIANA A B OHIO A B KENTUCKY A B TENNESSEE N B ALABAMA N B NEW YORK N B VERMONT N B NEW HAMP N B MAINE N B MASS N B CONN N B RHODE IS N B PENN A B NEW JERSEY N B W VIRGINIA A B MARYLAND N B DELAWARE N B VIRGINIA N B N CAROLINA B B S CAROLINA B B GEORGIA N N FL PNHDL N N FL PENIN N N AK N SLOPE A B AK ALEUTIAN A B AK WESTERN N B AK INT BSN N B AK S INT N B AK SO COAST N N AK PNHDL B A 8 to 14 day Outlook Table OUTLOOK FOR AUG 16 - 22, 2006 STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN WASHINGTON N N OREGON N N NRN CALIF A N SRN CALIF A N IDAHO N N NEVADA N N W MONTANA N N E MONTANA B A WYOMING N N UTAH N N ARIZONA N A COLORADO B A NEW MEXICO B A N DAKOTA B A S DAKOTA N N NEBRASKA N N KANSAS B N OKLAHOMA N B N TEXAS N N S TEXAS N N W TEXAS B N MINNESOTA N A IOWA N N MISSOURI N B ARKANSAS N B LOUISIANA N N WISCONSIN N N ILLINOIS N N MISSISSIPPI N B MICHIGAN N N INDIANA N B OHIO N B KENTUCKY N B TENNESSEE N B ALABAMA N B NEW YORK N N VERMONT N N NEW HAMP N N MAINE N N MASS N N CONN N B RHODE IS N N PENN N B NEW JERSEY N B W VIRGINIA N B MARYLAND N B DELAWARE N B VIRGINIA N B N CAROLINA N B S CAROLINA N B GEORGIA N B FL PNHDL N N FL PENIN N N AK N SLOPE B N AK ALEUTIAN N B AK WESTERN N B AK INT BSN B N AK S INT N N AK SO COAST N N AK PNHDL N N LEGEND TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN A - ABOVE N - NEAR NORMAL A - ABOVE N - NEAR MEDIAN B - BELOW B - BELOW THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS PMDMRD. $$