PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSIONS FOR 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD 300 PM EDT FRI AUG 04 2006 6-10 DAY OUTLOOK VALID FOR AUG 10 - 14 2006 TODAYS MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT ON THE MAIN FEATURES OF THE 500-HPA HEIGHTS PREDICTED FOR THE 6 TO 10 DAY PERIOD. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS PREDICTED TO BE OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS... WITH A TROUGH PREDICTED JUST OFF THE WEST COAST OF NORTH AMERICA... AND ANOTHER TROUGH OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIME PROVINCES. THE 500-HPA ANOMALIES ARE WEAKER THAN ON THE OUTLOOKS ISSUED EARLIER IN THE WEEK... INDICATING MORE UNCERTAINTY IN THIS FORECAST WHEN COMPARED TO THOSE ISSUED IN THE PAST FEW DAYS. DIFFICULT AREAS ON THIS FORECAST INVOLVE THE STRENGTH OF THE EASTERN TROUGH... AND THE LOCATION OF THE WESTERN BOUNDARY OF COOLER AIR ASSOCIATED WITH IT. THERE IS CONSIDERABLE DISAGREEMENT AMONG TOOLS ON THE PRECIPITATION IN THE EASTERN CONUS. MOST TOOLS FAVOR A BREAK IN THE SOUTHWESTERN MONSOON... CONSISTENT WITH THE WESTWARD BUILDING RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL PART OF THE COUNTRY AND THE DIMINISHING TROUGH OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA... HOWEVER ANALOGS BASED ON SEVERAL OF THE GFS ENSEMBLE RUNS CONTINUE TO KEEP THE MONSOON MARGINALLY ACTIVE. THERE IS ALSO A LARGE AMOUNT OF DISAGREEMENT AMONG THE TOOLS FOR BOTH TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION OVER MOST OF ALASKA. WARMER THAN NORMAL SSTS OFF THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST IS EXPECTED TO ENHANCE THE CHANCES OF ABOVE NORMAL AIR TEMPERATURES ALONG THE COAST. TODAYS OFFICIAL 500-HPA BLEND CONSISTS OF 10 PERCENT OF TODAY'S OPERATIONAL 0Z GFS CENTERED ON DAY 8...10 PERCENT OF TODAY'S OPERATIONAL 6Z GFS CENTERED ON DAY 8...10 PERCENT OF TODAY'S OPERATIONAL ECMWF CENTERED ON DAY 7...30 PERCENT OF TODAY'S GFS SUPERENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8...20 PERCENT OF TODAY'S CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8...AND 20 PERCENT OF TODAY'S EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 7. MODEL(S) OF THE DAY: GFS SUPERENSEMBLE MEAN FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD IS ABOUT AVERAGE ... 3 ON A SCALE OF 1 TO 5... WITH ABOVE AVERAGE CONFIDENCE FOR TEMPERATURES BUT BELOW AVERAGE CONFIDENCE FOR THE PRECIPITATION OUTLOOK. THE 6-10 DAY TEMPERATURE PROG IS BASED ON THE KLEIN AND ANALOG SPECIFICATIONS FROM THE OFFICIAL BLEND... THE CPC AUTO TEMPERATURE FORECAST... AND THE CDC TEMPERATURE TOOL. THE 6-10 DAY PRECIPITATION PROG IS BASED ON THE CPC AUTO PRECIPITATION FORECAST...ANALOGS AND NEURAL NET SPECIFICATIONS FROM THE OFFICIAL BLENDED HEIGHTS...THE CDC TOOL...CALIBRATED PRECIPITATION FROM THE 6Z OPERATIONAL GFS AND 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN. 8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR AUG 12 - 18 2006: THE FORECAST CIRCULATION PATTERN FOR THE 8 TO 14 DAY FORECAST INDICATES THAT THE TROUGH PREDICTED WELL OFF THE EAST COAST OF THE CONUS ON THE 6 TO 10 DAY MEAN WILL REGROGRADE TO A MEAN POSITION OVER THE EASTERN SEABOARD BY THE 8 TO 14 DAY PERIOD. THE RIDGE POSITION ALSO RETROGRADES... BUT TO A LESSER EXTENT WITH THE MEAN RIDGE AXIS OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES WITHIN THE PERIOD. THE EVOLVING FLOW PATTERN WILL MAKE MEAN SURFACE CONDITIONS WITHIN THE PERIOD DIFFICULT TO FORECAST... ESPECIALLY FOR PRECIPITATION. THE CDC GUIDANCE... BASED ON AN OLDER VERSION OF THE GFS... IS AT ODDS WITH THE FORECAST FROM MOST ENSEMBLE MEMBERS BASED ON CURRENT VERSIONS OF THE GFS AND WAS THEREFORE NOT USED FOR THIS OUTLOOK. THERE IS LITTLE AGREEMENT AMONG THE VARIOUS TOOLS FOR PRECIPITATION. ABOVE MEDIAN PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED ALONG THE MEAN FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO THE CAROLINAS. THERE CONTINUES TO BE POOR AGREEMENT AMONG THE MODEL FORECASTS FOR THE 500-HPA HEIGHTS OVER ALASKA. THE ENSEMBLES SUGGEST THAT A TROUGH BE LOCATED OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA THAT WILL ENHANCE CHANCES OF ABOVE MEDIAN PRECIPITAION AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES OVER THE SOUTHERN ALASKAN COAST. THE OFFICIAL 8-14 DAY HEIGHT PROG CONSISTS OF 20 PERCENT OF TODAY'S OPERATIONAL 0Z GFS CENTERED ON DAY 11...20 PERCENT OF TODAY'S OPERATIONAL 6Z GFS CENTERED ON DAY 11...40 PERCENT OF TODAY'S GFS SUPERENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11...AND 20 PERCENT OF TODAY'S CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11. FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD IS BELOW AVERAGE TODAY... 2 ON A SCALE OF 1 TO 5... DUE TO ONLY FAIR AGREEMENT AMONG MODELS AND AN EVOLVING 500-HPA CIRCULATION PATTERN WITHIN THE PERIOD. THE 8-14 DAY TEMPERATURE PROG IS BASED ON THE KLEIN AND ANALOG SPECIFICATIONS FROM THE OFFICIAL BLEND... THE CPC AUTO FORECAST... AND CALIBRATED TEMPERATURES FROM THE GFS. THE 8-14 DAY PRECIPITATION PROG IS BASED ON THE CPC AUTO PRECIPITATION FORECAST...ANALOGS AND NEURAL NET SPECIFICATIONS FROM THE OFFICIAL BLENDED HEIGHTS... AND CALIBRATED PRECIPITATION FROM THE 0Z AND 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN. FORECASTER: UNGER NOTES: OPERATIONAL CHANGE: AS OF JULY 5 2005 SHADED MAPS HAVE REPLACED THE CONTOUR-ONLY MAPS ON THE CPC WEB SITE. THE CONTOURED MAPS ARE STILL AVAILABLE AT THEIR CURRENT FILE NAMES - SO DIRECT-LINKED USERS ARE NOT AFFECTED. AWIPS GRAPHICS ARE ALSO NOT AFFECTED BY THIS CHANGE. AUTOMATED FORECASTS ARE ISSUED ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. OTHERWISE - FORECASTS INCORPORATE FORECASTER INPUT. THE NOTATION FOR THE CATEGORICAL FORECAST INDICATED ON THE MAPS IS THE SAME AS THAT IN THE TABLES: A-ABOVE N-NEAR NORMAL B-BELOW IN THE SOUTHWEST AND OTHER CLIMATOLOGICALLY DRY REGIONS - THERE WILL BE A GREATER THAN 33.3% CHANCE OF NO PRECIPITATION AND OCCASIONALLY EVEN A NORMAL (I.E. MEDIAN) VALUE OF ZERO - ESPECIALLY DURING THE DRY SEASONS. IN SUCH CASES A FORECAST OF NEAR NORMAL IS EFFECTIVELY A FORECAST OF LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION. THE NARRATIVE DESCRIPTION OF THE FORECAST PATTERNS FOR TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION FOR BOTH THE 6-10 OR 8-14 DAY PERIODS HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED. THE STATE TABLES FOR BOTH THE 6-10 AND 8-14 DAY PERIODS ARE NOW CONTAINED IN THIS MESSAGE...AVAILABLE AS PMDMRD ON AWIPS. THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER USES 1971-2000 BASE PERIOD MEANS FOR TEMPERATURE...PRECIPITATION...AND 500-HPA HEIGHTS AS REFERENCE IN THE CLIMATE OUTLOOKS. THE NEXT SET OF LONG-LEAD MONTHLY AND SEASONAL OUTLOOKS WILL BE RELEASED ON AUGUST 17. NEW NOTE EFFECTIVE MAR 16 2004: THE GLOSSARY FORMERLY FOUND AT THIS LOCATION WILL NO LONGER BE TRANSMITTED AS PART OF THIS MESSAGE. IF YOU WISH TO SEE THE DEFINITIONS OF TERMS USED IN THESE MESSAGES... PLEASE GO TO THE CPC WEB PAGE AT (USE LOWER CASE) HTTP://WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV AND FOLLOW THE APPROPRIATE LINKS. ANALOGS TO THE 5 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 3 DAYS AGO (D-3) FOR THE REGION FROM 20N to 70N LATITUDE AND 175E to 60W LONGITUDE INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES: 19910718 - 19950813 - 19680818 - 19620805 - 19580804 ANALOGS TO THE 7 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 4 DAYS AGO (D-4) FOR THE REGION FROM 20N to 70N LATITUDE AND 175E to 60W LONGITUDE INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES: 19620805 - 19950814 - 19910717 - 19640730 - 19990812 6 to 10 day Outlook Table OUTLOOK FOR AUG 10 - 14, 2006 STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN WASHINGTON N N OREGON N N NRN CALIF N N SRN CALIF A N IDAHO A B NEVADA A N W MONTANA A B E MONTANA A B WYOMING A B UTAH A B ARIZONA A B COLORADO A B NEW MEXICO A B N DAKOTA A B S DAKOTA A B NEBRASKA A B KANSAS A B OKLAHOMA A B N TEXAS A B S TEXAS N N W TEXAS A B MINNESOTA A B IOWA A B MISSOURI A B ARKANSAS A B LOUISIANA A N WISCONSIN A N ILLINOIS A B MISSISSIPPI A N MICHIGAN A A INDIANA A N OHIO N N KENTUCKY A B TENNESSEE A B ALABAMA A N NEW YORK B N VERMONT B N NEW HAMP B B MAINE B B MASS B B CONN B B RHODE IS B B PENN B N NEW JERSEY B B W VIRGINIA N N MARYLAND B B DELAWARE B B VIRGINIA B B N CAROLINA B B S CAROLINA N N GEORGIA A N FL PNHDL A N FL PENIN N B AK N SLOPE N A AK ALEUTIAN N A AK WESTERN N A AK INT BSN N N AK S INT B N AK SO COAST B N AK PNHDL N B 8 to 14 day Outlook Table OUTLOOK FOR AUG 12 - 18, 2006 STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN WASHINGTON A N OREGON A N NRN CALIF A N SRN CALIF A N IDAHO A N NEVADA A N W MONTANA A N E MONTANA A B WYOMING A B UTAH A B ARIZONA A N COLORADO A B NEW MEXICO A B N DAKOTA A B S DAKOTA A B NEBRASKA A B KANSAS A B OKLAHOMA A N N TEXAS A B S TEXAS A B W TEXAS A B MINNESOTA A B IOWA A N MISSOURI A A ARKANSAS A A LOUISIANA A N WISCONSIN N B ILLINOIS N A MISSISSIPPI N A MICHIGAN B B INDIANA N N OHIO B B KENTUCKY B N TENNESSEE N A ALABAMA N A NEW YORK B B VERMONT B B NEW HAMP B B MAINE B B MASS B B CONN B B RHODE IS B B PENN B B NEW JERSEY B B W VIRGINIA B B MARYLAND B B DELAWARE B B VIRGINIA B N N CAROLINA B N S CAROLINA B A GEORGIA B A FL PNHDL N A FL PENIN N N AK N SLOPE A N AK ALEUTIAN B N AK WESTERN N N AK INT BSN N N AK S INT B A AK SO COAST B A AK PNHDL N A LEGEND TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN A - ABOVE N - NEAR NORMAL A - ABOVE N - NEAR MEDIAN B - BELOW B - BELOW THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS PMDMRD. $$