PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSIONS FOR 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD 300 PM EDT MON JUL 31 2006 6-10 DAY OUTLOOK VALID FOR AUG 06 - 10 2006 TODAYS MODELS ARE IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT ON THE MAIN FEATURES OF THE 500-HPA HEIGHTS PEDICTED FOR THE 6 TO 10 DAY PERIOD. THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT FOR AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... WITH A TROUGH PREDICTED JUST OFF THE WEST COAST OF NORTH AMERICA. THE PREDICTED UPPER LEVEL CIRCULATION FAVORS ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN PARTS OF THE CONUS UNDER THE RIDGE. WITH THE MEAN TROUGH PREDICTED TO STAY JUST OFF THE PACIFIC COAST... TEMPERATURES IN THE WESTERN U.S. ARE EXPECTED TO AVERAGE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL IN THE PERIOD. THE PREDICTED CIRCULATION PATTERN SUGGESTS A CONTINUED ACTIVE SOUTHWEST MONSOON... FAVORING ABOVE MEDIAN PRECIPITATION AND NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND DESERT SOUTHWEST. THE WESTERN TROUGH SHOULD FAVOR WET CONDITIONS ALONG THE ALASKAN PANHANDLE... WHILE AN ARCTIC RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO KEEP TEMPERATURES IN NORTHERN ALASKA ABOVE NORMAL. TODAYS OFFICIAL 500-HPA BLEND CONSISTS OF 30 PERCENT OF TODAY'S GFS SUPERENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8...30 PERCENT OF TODAY'S CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8...AND 40 PERCENT OF TODAY'S EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 7. MODEL(S) OF THE DAY: 12Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD IS ABOVE AVERAGE ... 4 ON A SCALE OF 1 TO 5 DUE TO GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG THE AVAILABLE MODELS. THE 6-10 DAY TEMPERATURE PROG IS BASED ON THE KLEIN AND ANALOG SPECIFICATIONS... FROM THE OFFICIAL BLEND... THE CPC AUTO TEMPERATURE FORECAST... AND THE CDC TEMPERATURE TOOL. THE 6-10 DAY PRECIPITATION PROG IS BASED ON THE CPC AUTO PRECIPITATION FORECAST...ANALOGS AND NEURAL NET SPECIFICATIONS FROM THE OFFICIAL BLENDED HEIGHTS...THE CDC TOOL...CALIBRATED PRECIPITATION FROM THE 6Z OPERATIONAL GFS AND 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN...AND CPC CALIBRATED PRECIPITATION PERCENTAGES FROM THE GFS ENSEMBLE. THE PRECIPITATION FORECAST TOOLS WERE IN POOR AGREEMENT TODAY. 8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR AUG 08 - 14 2006: THE CIRCULATION PATTERN 8 TO 14 DAY PERIOD IS PREDICTED TO BE QUITE SIMILAR TO THE 6 TO 10 DAY MEAN. THE RIDGE IN THE EAST-CENTRAL PART OF THE COUNTRY PREDICTED FOR THE 6 TO 10 DAY PERIOD RETROGRADES SLIGHTLY BETWEEN THE TWO PERIODS... SHARPENING THE TROUGH OFF THE WEST COAST OF NORTH AMERICA WHICH STAYS ANCHORED JUST OFF THE COAST. THE TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION PATTERNS OVER THE CONUS AND ALASKA ARE ALSO SIMILAR BETWEEN THE TWO PERIODS. WARMER THAN NORMAL SSTS OFF THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST SHOULD FAVOR ABOVE NORMAL AIR TEMPERATURES ALONG IMMEDIATE COASTAL AREAS. THE OFFICIAL 8-14 DAY HEIGHT PROG CONSISTS OF 20 PERCENT OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11...10 PERCENT OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11...40 PERCENT OF TODAY'S GFS SUPERENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11...AND 30 PERCENT OF TODAY'S CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11. FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD IS ABOVE AVERAGE TODAY... 4 ON A SCALE OF 1 TO 5... DUE TO RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG THE FORECAST MODELS. THE 8-14 DAY TEMPERATURE PROG IS BASED ON THE KLEIN AND ANALOG SPECIFICATIONS FROM THE OFFICIAL BLEND... THE CPC AUTO FORECAST... AND THE CDC CALIBRATED TEMPERATURE TOOL. THE 8-14 DAY PRECIPITATION PROG IS BASED ON THE CPC AUTO PRECIPITATION FORECAST...ANALOGS AND NEURAL NET SPECIFICATIONS FROM THE OFFICIAL BLENDED HEIGHTS...THE CDC TOOL...CALIBRATED PRECIPITATION FROM THE 0Z AND 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN. FORECASTER: UNGER NOTES: OPERATIONAL CHANGE: AS OF JULY 5 2005 SHADED MAPS HAVE REPLACED THE CONTOUR-ONLY MAPS ON THE CPC WEB SITE. THE CONTOURED MAPS ARE STILL AVAILABLE AT THEIR CURRENT FILE NAMES - SO DIRECT-LINKED USERS ARE NOT AFFECTED. AWIPS GRAPHICS ARE ALSO NOT AFFECTED BY THIS CHANGE. AUTOMATED FORECASTS ARE ISSUED ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. OTHERWISE - FORECASTS INCORPORATE FORECASTER INPUT. THE NOTATION FOR THE CATEGORICAL FORECAST INDICATED ON THE MAPS IS THE SAME AS THAT IN THE TABLES: A-ABOVE N-NEAR NORMAL B-BELOW IN THE SOUTHWEST AND OTHER CLIMATOLOGICALLY DRY REGIONS - THERE WILL BE A GREATER THAN 33.3% CHANCE OF NO PRECIPITATION AND OCCASIONALLY EVEN A NORMAL (I.E. MEDIAN) VALUE OF ZERO - ESPECIALLY DURING THE DRY SEASONS. IN SUCH CASES A FORECAST OF NEAR NORMAL IS EFFECTIVELY A FORECAST OF LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION. THE NARRATIVE DESCRIPTION OF THE FORECAST PATTERNS FOR TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION FOR BOTH THE 6-10 OR 8-14 DAY PERIODS HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED. THE STATE TABLES FOR BOTH THE 6-10 AND 8-14 DAY PERIODS ARE NOW CONTAINED IN THIS MESSAGE...AVAILABLE AS PMDMRD ON AWIPS. THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER USES 1971-2000 BASE PERIOD MEANS FOR TEMPERATURE...PRECIPITATION...AND 500-HPA HEIGHTS AS REFERENCE IN THE CLIMATE OUTLOOKS. THE NEXT SET OF LONG-LEAD MONTHLY AND SEASONAL OUTLOOKS WILL BE RELEASED ON AUGUST 17. UPDATED MONTHLY FORECASTS FOR AUGUST WLL BE ISSUED ON JULY 31. NEW NOTE EFFECTIVE MAR 16 2004: THE GLOSSARY FORMERLY FOUND AT THIS LOCATION WILL NO LONGER BE TRANSMITTED AS PART OF THIS MESSAGE. IF YOU WISH TO SEE THE DEFINITIONS OF TERMS USED IN THESE MESSAGES... PLEASE GO TO THE CPC WEB PAGE AT (USE LOWER CASE) HTTP://WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV AND FOLLOW THE APPROPRIATE LINKS. ANALOGS TO THE 5 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 3 DAYS AGO (D-3) FOR THE REGION FROM 20N to 70N LATITUDE AND 175E to 60W LONGITUDE INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES: 19960717 - 19630719 - 19990813 - 19810731 - 19990728 ANALOGS TO THE 7 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 4 DAYS AGO (D-4) FOR THE REGION FROM 20N to 70N LATITUDE AND 175E to 60W LONGITUDE INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES: 19630718 - 19910715 - 19960716 - 19990727 - 19620804 6 to 10 day Outlook Table OUTLOOK FOR AUG 06 - 10, 2006 STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN WASHINGTON N A OREGON B N NRN CALIF B N SRN CALIF B N IDAHO N N NEVADA B N W MONTANA N N E MONTANA A N WYOMING N N UTAH B A ARIZONA N A COLORADO N A NEW MEXICO N A N DAKOTA A A S DAKOTA A N NEBRASKA A N KANSAS A B OKLAHOMA A B N TEXAS A N S TEXAS A N W TEXAS A N MINNESOTA A A IOWA A A MISSOURI A B ARKANSAS A B LOUISIANA A B WISCONSIN A A ILLINOIS A B MISSISSIPPI A B MICHIGAN A A INDIANA A N OHIO A N KENTUCKY A B TENNESSEE A B ALABAMA A B NEW YORK A N VERMONT A N NEW HAMP A N MAINE N N MASS A N CONN A N RHODE IS A N PENN A N NEW JERSEY A N W VIRGINIA A N MARYLAND A N DELAWARE A N VIRGINIA A N N CAROLINA A B S CAROLINA A B GEORGIA A B FL PNHDL A B FL PENIN A N AK N SLOPE A B AK ALEUTIAN N N AK WESTERN N B AK INT BSN A N AK S INT N N AK SO COAST N N AK PNHDL N A 8 to 14 day Outlook Table OUTLOOK FOR AUG 08 - 14, 2006 STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN WASHINGTON B A OREGON B N NRN CALIF B N SRN CALIF N N IDAHO N N NEVADA N N W MONTANA N N E MONTANA A N WYOMING A N UTAH N A ARIZONA N A COLORADO A A NEW MEXICO N A N DAKOTA A B S DAKOTA A B NEBRASKA A B KANSAS A B OKLAHOMA A B N TEXAS A N S TEXAS A N W TEXAS A N MINNESOTA A B IOWA A B MISSOURI A B ARKANSAS A B LOUISIANA A N WISCONSIN A N ILLINOIS A B MISSISSIPPI A B MICHIGAN A N INDIANA A B OHIO A B KENTUCKY A B TENNESSEE A B ALABAMA A B NEW YORK N N VERMONT N N NEW HAMP N N MAINE N N MASS N N CONN N N RHODE IS N N PENN A N NEW JERSEY N N W VIRGINIA A B MARYLAND N B DELAWARE N B VIRGINIA A B N CAROLINA A B S CAROLINA A B GEORGIA A B FL PNHDL A N FL PENIN A N AK N SLOPE A N AK ALEUTIAN N N AK WESTERN N A AK INT BSN N N AK S INT N B AK SO COAST N B AK PNHDL B N LEGEND TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN A - ABOVE N - NEAR NORMAL A - ABOVE N - NEAR MEDIAN B - BELOW B - BELOW THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS PMDMRD. $$