PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSIONS FOR 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD 300 PM EDT FRI JUL 21 2006 6-10 DAY OUTLOOK VALID FOR JUL 27 - 31 2006 TODAYS NUMERICAL MODELS ARE ONLY IN FAIR AGREEMENT ON THE OVERALL 500-HPA PATTERN OVER NORTH AMERICA. THE GFS BASED ENSEMBLE MEANS ARE IN GENERAL MORE AMPLIFIED AND SLIGHTLY MORE PROGRESSIVE THAN THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLUTIONS . THE DAVA REPRESENTS A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF/CANADIAN FORECASTS. THE CONSENSUS AMONG THESE SOLUTIONS INCLUDE A WEAK TO MODERATE TROUGH NEAR THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST..RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS...AND A WEAK TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES AREA. SUBTROPICAL RIDGE CENTERS ARE PROGGED FOR THE FOUR CORNERS REGION AS WELL AS FOR FLORIDA AND EXTENDING TO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN NEAR 30 DEGREES NORTH LATITUDE. FORECAST HEIGHT ANOMALIES OVER ALASKA ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED TO BE WEAK ALTHOUGH THERE IS A TENDENCY TOWARD NEGATIVE ANOMALIES OVER THE PANHANDLE. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND PRECIPITATION ARE GENERALLY FAVORED FOR THE NORTHEAST U.S. AND THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AHEAD OF THE TROUGHS OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST...RESPECTIVELY. WETTER THAN NORMAL CONDITIONS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE FOR PARTS OF THE WESTERN GULF COAST AND RIO GRANDE VALLEY AREAS DUE TO MOIST RETURN FLOW SOUTH OF THE MEAN SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS. ALONG OR JUST NORTH OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE...DRY CONDITIONS ARE FAVORED FOR PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST/SOUTH-CENTRAL STATES. DRY CONDITIONS ARE ALSO FAVORED FOR MUCH OF SOUTHERN ALASKA TO THE NORTH OF THE MEAN MID-LATITUDE JET. COOLER THAN NORMAL CONDITIONS ARE INDICATED FOR NORTHWESTERN COASTAL ALASKA DUE MAINLY TO BELOW NORMAL SSTS CURRENTLY BEING EXPERIENCED IN THE ADJACENT WATERS. TODAYS OFFICIAL 500-HPA BLEND CONSISTS OF 10 PERCENT OF TODAY'S DAVA CENTERED ON DAY 8...15 PERCENT OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8...15 PERCENT OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8...10 PERCENT OF TODAY'S GFS SUPERENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8...5 PERCENT OF TODAY'S CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8...AND 45 PERCENT OF TODAY'S EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 7. MODEL(S) OF THE DAY: ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD IS AVERAGE ... 3 ON A SCALE OF 1 TO 5. THE 6-10 DAY TEMPERATURE PROG IS BASED ON THE KLEIN AND ANALOG SPECIFICATIONS FROM THE OFFICIAL BLEND... THE CPC AUTO TEMPERATURE FORECAST AND THE BIAS CORRECTED 850-HPA TEMPERATURES FROM THE 0Z OPERATIONAL GFS, AND THE CDC TOOL. THE 6-10 DAY PRECIPITATION PROG IS BASED ON THE THE CPC AUTO PRECIPITATION FORECAST...ANALOGS FROM THE OFFICIAL BLENDED HEIGHTS...THE CDC TOOL...CALIBRATED PRECIPITATION FROM THE VARIOUS MODELS...AND BIAS CORRECTED PRECIPITATION FROM THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN. 8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR JUL 29 - AUG 04, 2006: DURING THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD...THE GFS BASED ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLUTIONS INDICATE A WEAK TROUGH PROGRESSING TO NEW ENGLAND AND A RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST CONUS. THIS IMPLIES INCREASINGLY WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS FOR MUCH OF THE EAST-CENTRAL U.S. HOWEVER... THE CANADIAN AND DAVA SOLUTIONS INDICATE A WEAKER RIDGE REDUCING THE CONFIDENCE IN THIS FORECAST WARM AND DRY PATTERN. FURTHER TO THE WEST...A WEAK TO MODERATE TROUGH PROGGED OVER OR NEAR THE NORTHWEST CONUS FAVORS COOL AND WET CONDITIONS FOR PARTS OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND PACIFIC NORTHWEST. ALASKA IS EXPECTED TO BE MOSTLY TO THE NORTH OF THE MAIN STORM TRACK AND THUS NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE STATE. THE OFFICIAL 8-14 DAY HEIGHT PROG CONSISTS OF 20 PERCENT OF TODAY'S DAVA CENTERED ON DAY 11...20 PERCENT OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11...20 PERCENT OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11...20 PERCENT OF TODAY'S GFS SUPERENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11...AND 20 PERCENT OF TODAY'S CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11. FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD IS BELOW AVERAGE TODAY... 2 ON A SCALE OF 1 TO 5... DUE TO RELATIVELY POOR AGREEMENT AMONG THE FORECAST TOOLS. THE 8-14 DAY TEMPERATURE PROG IS BASED ON THE KLEIN...AND ANALOG SPECIFICATIONS FROM THE OFFICIAL BLEND AND THE BIAS CORRECTED 850-HPA TEMPERATURES FROM THE 0Z OPERATIONAL GFS...THE CPC AUTO FORECAST...AND THE CDC CALIBRATED TEMPERATURE TOOL. THE 8-14 DAY PRECIPITATION PROG IS BASED ON THE THE CPC AUTO PRECIPITATION FORECAST...ANALOGS FROM THE OFFICIAL BLENDED HEIGHTS...THE CDC TOOL...CALIBRATED PRECIPITATION FROM THE VARIOUS MODELS...AND BIAS CORRECTED PRECIPITATION FROM THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN. FORECASTER: HANDEL NOTES: OPERATIONAL CHANGE: AS OF JULY 5 2005 SHADED MAPS HAVE REPLACED THE CONTOUR-ONLY MAPS ON THE CPC WEB SITE. THE CONTOURED MAPS ARE STILL AVAILABLE AT THEIR CURRENT FILE NAMES - SO DIRECT-LINKED USERS ARE NOT AFFECTED. AWIPS GRAPHICS ARE ALSO NOT AFFECTED BY THIS CHANGE. AUTOMATED FORECASTS ARE ISSUED ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. OTHERWISE - FORECASTS INCORPORATE FORECASTER INPUT. THE NOTATION FOR THE CATEGORICAL FORECAST INDICATED ON THE MAPS IS THE SAME AS THAT IN THE TABLES: A-ABOVE N-NEAR NORMAL B-BELOW IN THE SOUTHWEST AND OTHER CLIMATOLOGICALLY DRY REGIONS - THERE WILL BE A GREATER THAN 33.3% CHANCE OF NO PRECIPITATION AND OCCASIONALLY EVEN A NORMAL (I.E. MEDIAN) VALUE OF ZERO - ESPECIALLY DURING THE DRY SEASONS. IN SUCH CASES A FORECAST OF NEAR NORMAL IS EFFECTIVELY A FORECAST OF LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION. THE NARRATIVE DESCRIPTION OF THE FORECAST PATTERNS FOR TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION FOR BOTH THE 6-10 OR 8-14 DAY PERIODS HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED. THE STATE TABLES FOR BOTH THE 6-10 AND 8-14 DAY PERIODS ARE NOW CONTAINED IN THIS MESSAGE...AVAILABLE AS PMDMRD ON AWIPS. THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER USES 1971-2000 BASE PERIOD MEANS FOR TEMPERATURE...PRECIPITATION...AND 500-HPA HEIGHTS AS REFERENCE IN THE CLIMATE OUTLOOKS. THE NEXT SET OF LONG-LEAD MONTHLY AND SEASONAL OUTLOOKS WILL BE RELEASED ON AUGUST 17. UPDATED MONTHLY FORECASTS FOR AUGUST WLL BE ISSUED ON JULY 31. NEW NOTE EFFECTIVE MAR 16 2004: THE GLOSSARY FORMERLY FOUND AT THIS LOCATION WILL NO LONGER BE TRANSMITTED AS PART OF THIS MESSAGE. IF YOU WISH TO SEE THE DEFINITIONS OF TERMS USED IN THESE MESSAGES... PLEASE GO TO THE CPC WEB PAGE AT (USE LOWER CASE) HTTP://WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV AND FOLLOW THE APPROPRIATE LINKS. ANALOGS TO THE 5 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 3 DAYS AGO (D-3) FOR THE REGION FROM 20N to 70N LATITUDE AND 175E to 60W LONGITUDE INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES: 19790730 - 19690717 - 19520706 - 19880727 - 19680709 ANALOGS TO THE 7 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 4 DAYS AGO (D-4) FOR THE REGION FROM 20N to 70N LATITUDE AND 175E to 60W LONGITUDE INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES: 19690717 - 19980716 - 19790730 - 19880726 - 19520705 6 to 10 day Outlook Table OUTLOOK FOR JUL 27 - 31, 2006 STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN WASHINGTON B N OREGON B N NRN CALIF N B SRN CALIF N N IDAHO A N NEVADA N N W MONTANA A A E MONTANA A A WYOMING A N UTAH A N ARIZONA N N COLORADO A N NEW MEXICO A N N DAKOTA A N S DAKOTA A N NEBRASKA A N KANSAS A N OKLAHOMA A B N TEXAS N N S TEXAS B N W TEXAS N N MINNESOTA N N IOWA A A MISSOURI A N ARKANSAS N B LOUISIANA N N WISCONSIN N A ILLINOIS N A MISSISSIPPI N B MICHIGAN N A INDIANA N A OHIO N A KENTUCKY N N TENNESSEE N N ALABAMA N B NEW YORK A A VERMONT A A NEW HAMP A A MAINE A N MASS A A CONN A A RHODE IS A A PENN A A NEW JERSEY A A W VIRGINIA A A MARYLAND A A DELAWARE A A VIRGINIA A N N CAROLINA A N S CAROLINA A N GEORGIA A B FL PNHDL N N FL PENIN N N AK N SLOPE N N AK ALEUTIAN N N AK WESTERN N N AK INT BSN N A AK S INT N N AK SO COAST N N AK PNHDL N B 8 to 14 day Outlook Table OUTLOOK FOR JUL 29 - AUG 04, 2006 STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN WASHINGTON B A OREGON B N NRN CALIF N N SRN CALIF N B IDAHO N A NEVADA N N W MONTANA N A E MONTANA A A WYOMING N N UTAH N N ARIZONA N N COLORADO N N NEW MEXICO N N N DAKOTA A N S DAKOTA A N NEBRASKA A N KANSAS A N OKLAHOMA A N N TEXAS N N S TEXAS N N W TEXAS N N MINNESOTA A N IOWA A N MISSOURI A B ARKANSAS A B LOUISIANA A N WISCONSIN A N ILLINOIS A N MISSISSIPPI A B MICHIGAN A N INDIANA A N OHIO A N KENTUCKY A B TENNESSEE A B ALABAMA A B NEW YORK N N VERMONT N N NEW HAMP N N MAINE N N MASS N N CONN N N RHODE IS N N PENN A N NEW JERSEY N N W VIRGINIA A B MARYLAND A B DELAWARE N N VIRGINIA A B N CAROLINA A B S CAROLINA A B GEORGIA A B FL PNHDL A N FL PENIN N N AK N SLOPE N N AK ALEUTIAN N B AK WESTERN N B AK INT BSN N N AK S INT N B AK SO COAST N B AK PNHDL B N LEGEND TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN A - ABOVE N - NEAR NORMAL A - ABOVE N - NEAR MEDIAN B - BELOW B - BELOW THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS PMDMRD. $$