PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSIONS FOR 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD 300 PM EDT FRI JUL 14 2006 6-10 DAY OUTLOOK VALID FOR JUL 20 - 24 2006 MOST OF TODAY'S ENSEMBLE MEANS AND OPERATIONAL MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE IN RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE EXPECTED 500-HPA CIRCULATION PATTERN OVER NORTH AMERICA AND ADJACENT OCEANIC AREAS, THOUGH THERE ARE SUBSTANTIAL DIFFERENCES IN THE PREDICTED INTENSITY OF SEVERAL KEY FEATURES... AND A SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN THE MAJORITY OF THE SOLUTIONS FROM WHAT WAS FORECAST YESTERDAY... ALTHOUGH THE EXPECTED PATTERN IS SIMILAR TO WHAT WAS INDICATED IN YESTERDAY'S 8-14 DAY FORECAST. THE KEY FEATURE IS AN AMPLIFYING RIDGE NEAR THE WEST COAST OF CANADA THAT IS SHOWN BY ALL THE MODELS... BUT MOST SOLUTIONS DO NOT SEEM TO BE SHOWING AN ADEQUATE DOWNSTREAM RESPONSE FROM THIS FEATURE YET. TELECONNECTIONS FROM A POSITIVE ANOMALY CENTER NEAR 55N/135W FAVOR A MODERATELY STRONG TROUGH WITH BELOW NORMAL HEIGHTS OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... BUT AT THE MOST ONLY A FEW OF THE RECENT GFS OPERATIONAL RUNS WERE HINTING AT THE DEVELOPMENT OF A WEAK TROUGH IN THAT AREA. THE ECMWF OPERATIONAL RUNS STILL WANT TO PLACE A TROUGH NEAR THE U.S. PACIFIC COAST... WHICH ALTHOUGH A NORMAL FEATURE OF SUMMER CLIMATOLOGY... IS NOT FAVORED BY THE TELECONNECTIONS. ELSEWHERE, A MEAN TROUGH CONTINUES TO BE ANTICIPATED ACROSS WESTERN ALASKA AND THE NORTH PACIFIC REGION, WHILE A RIDGE IS FORECAST TO EXTEND FROM THE EASTERN GULF OF ALASKA ACROSS NORTHWESTERN CANADA AND THE EASTERN PART OF ALASKA. FINALLY, AFTER A HIATUS IN MONSOON ACTIVITY ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST, IT APPEARS AS THOUGH SOME MOISTURE WILL AGAIN RETURN TO THAT AREA, ALTHOUGH THE GREATEST ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED EAST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE, IN ASSOCIATION WITH SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL HEIGHTS OVER TEXAS AND NEW MEXICO. AS A REMINDER, RECREATIONISTS IN THE SOUTHWEST SHOULD BE WARY OF POSSIBLE FLASH FLOODING IN MOUNTAINOUS AREAS THAT CAN RESULT IN A VERY RAPID TORRENT OF RUSHING WATER THAT IS CHANNELED THROUGH DRY RIVER BEDS (ARROYOS) TOWARDS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS OF A VALLEY. TODAYS OFFICIAL 500-HPA BLEND CONSISTS OF 10 PERCENT OF TODAY'S OPERATIONAL 0Z GFS CENTERED ON DAY 8...10 PERCENT OF TODAY'S OPERATIONAL 6Z GFS CENTERED ON DAY 8...5 PERCENT OF YESTERDAY'S OPERATIONAL 18Z GFS CENTERED ON DAY 7...5 PERCENT OF TODAY'S OPERATIONAL ECMWF CENTERED ON DAY 7...10 PERCENT OF TODAY'S DAVA CENTERED ON DAY 8...20 PERCENT OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8...20 PERCENT OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8...AND 20 PERCENT OF TODAY'S GFS SUPERENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8. MODEL(S) OF THE DAY: GFS 0Z... 6Z AND SUPERENSEMBLE MEANS (TIED) FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD IS SOMEWHAT BELOW AVERAGE TODAY... 2 ON A SCALE OF 1 TO 5... DUE TO FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG THE ENSEMBLE MEANS OFFSET BY A LIKELY CHANGE IN THE PATTERN AND UNCERTAINTY AS TO TIMING OF THE CHANGE AND THE AMPLITUDE OF THE NEW PATTERN. THE RAPIDITY WITH WHICH THE TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION FIELDS RESPOND TO THE NEW PATTERN IS ALSO A SOURCE OF ADDED UNCERTAINTY. THE 6-10 DAY TEMPERATURE PROG IS BASED ON THE KLEIN... NEURAL NET... AND ANALOG SPECIFICATIONS FROM THE OFFICIAL BLEND... THE CPC AUTO TEMPERATURE FORECAST... AND THE CDC REFORECAST TEMPERATURE TOOL. TODAY'S TEMPERATURE TOOLS ARE INDICATING WARMTH ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN AND NORTHEASTERN STATES. ANY INCURSIONS OF COOL AIR FROM CANADA WOULD BE MOST LIKELY OVER THE NORTH-CENTRAL STATES, WHILE CLOUDINESS AND PRECIPITATION WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES ON THE COOL SIDE OVER THE SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS. THE 6-10 DAY PRECIPITATION PROG IS BASED ON THE NEURAL NET SPECIFICATIONS FROM THE OFFICIAL BLEND... THE CPC AUTO PRECIPITATION FORECAST... THE CDC REFORECAST PRECIPITATION TOOL...AND THE EMC AND CPC CALIBRATED PRECIPITATION PERCENTAGES. 8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR JUL 22 - 28 2006: THE MODEL RUNS FOR THE WEEK 2 TIME FRAME ARE IN RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT REGARDING THE MID-TROPOSPHERIC CIRCULATION PATTERN OVER NORTH AMERICA, WITH THE CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN AND THE OPERATIONAL 0Z AND 6Z GFS RUNS INDICATING NOTABLE DIFFERENCES. THE CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN HAS WHAT APPEARS TO BE AN OVEREMPHASIZED TROUGH ALONG THE WEST COAST, WHILE THE OPERATIONAL GFS RUNS (INITIALIZED AT 00 UTC AND 06 UTC) SUGGEST FASTER PROGRESSION OF THE ANTICIPATED MIDWEST TROUGH COMPARED TO THE ENSEMBLE MEANS. IN GENERAL, THE CIRCULATION ANOMALIES PREDICTED NEAR AND OVER ALASKA DURING DAYS 6-10 SHOULD PERSIST, AND MOST MODELS AGREE ON A WEAKNESS IN THE 500-HPA HEIGHT FIELD OVER THE NORTH-CENTRAL CONUS. AS WAS HINTED AT YESTERDAY, THERE ARE SIGNS OF A WESTWARD SHIFT OF MONSOONAL MOISTURE OVER THE DESERT SW. THE OFFICIAL 8-14 DAY HEIGHT PROG CONSISTS OF 10 PERCENT OF TODAY'S OPERATIONAL 0Z GFS CENTERED ON DAY 11...10 PERCENT OF TODAY'S OPERATIONAL 6Z GFS CENTERED ON DAY 11...25 PERCENT OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11...25 PERCENT OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11...25 PERCENT OF TODAY'S GFS SUPERENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11...AND 5 PERCENT OF TODAY'S CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11. FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD IS BELOW AVERAGE TODAY... 2 ON A SCALE OF 1 TO 5... DUE TO UNCERTAINTIES IN THE TIMING OF THE EXPECTED PATTERN CHANGE DURING THE 6-10 DAY AND 8-14 DAY PERIODS. THE 8-14 DAY TEMPERATURE PROG IS BASED ON THE KLEIN... NEURAL NET... AND ANALOG SPECIFICATIONS FROM THE OFFICIAL BLEND... THE CPC AUTO TEMPERATURE FORECAST... AND THE CDC CALIBRATED TEMPERATURE FORECAST. THE 8-14 DAY PRECIPITATION PROG IS BASED ON THE CPC AUTOMATED PRECIPITATION FORECAST... CDC REFORECAST PRECIPITATION... ANALOG AND NEURAL NET SPECIFICATIONS FROM THE OFFICIAL BLEND... AND THE EMC AND CPC CALIBRATED PRECIPITATION PERCENTAGES. FORECASTER: WAGNER/ARTUSA NOTES: OPERATIONAL CHANGE: AS OF JULY 5 2005 SHADED MAPS HAVE REPLACED THE CONTOUR-ONLY MAPS ON THE CPC WEB SITE. THE CONTOURED MAPS ARE STILL AVAILABLE AT THEIR CURRENT FILE NAMES - SO DIRECT-LINKED USERS ARE NOT AFFECTED. AWIPS GRAPHICS ARE ALSO NOT AFFECTED BY THIS CHANGE. AUTOMATED FORECASTS ARE ISSUED ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. OTHERWISE - FORECASTS INCORPORATE FORECASTER INPUT. THE NOTATION FOR THE CATEGORICAL FORECAST INDICATED ON THE MAPS IS THE SAME AS THAT IN THE TABLES: A-ABOVE N-NEAR NORMAL B-BELOW IN THE SOUTHWEST AND OTHER CLIMATOLOGICALLY DRY REGIONS - THERE WILL BE A GREATER THAN 33.3% CHANCE OF NO PRECIPITATION AND OCCASIONALLY EVEN A NORMAL (I.E. MEDIAN) VALUE OF ZERO - ESPECIALLY DURING THE DRY SEASONS. IN SUCH CASES A FORECAST OF NEAR NORMAL IS EFFECTIVELY A FORECAST OF LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION. THE NARRATIVE DESCRIPTION OF THE FORECAST PATTERNS FOR TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION FOR BOTH THE 6-10 OR 8-14 DAY PERIODS HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED. THE STATE TABLES FOR BOTH THE 6-10 AND 8-14 DAY PERIODS ARE NOW CONTAINED IN THIS MESSAGE...AVAILABLE AS PMDMRD ON AWIPS. THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER USES 1971-2000 BASE PERIOD MEANS FOR TEMPERATURE...PRECIPITATION...AND 500-HPA HEIGHTS AS REFERENCE IN THE CLIMATE OUTLOOKS. THE NEXT SET OF LONG-LEAD MONTHLY AND SEASONAL OUTLOOKS WILL BE RELEASED ON JULY 20. NEW NOTE EFFECTIVE MAR 16 2004: THE GLOSSARY FORMERLY FOUND AT THIS LOCATION WILL NO LONGER BE TRANSMITTED AS PART OF THIS MESSAGE. IF YOU WISH TO SEE THE DEFINITIONS OF TERMS USED IN THESE MESSAGES... PLEASE GO TO THE CPC WEB PAGE AT (USE LOWER CASE) HTTP://WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV AND FOLLOW THE APPROPRIATE LINKS. ANALOGS TO THE 5 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 3 DAYS AGO (D-3) FOR THE REGION FROM 20N to 70N LATITUDE AND 175E to 60W LONGITUDE INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES: 19520703 - 19750716 - 19680712 - 19880710 - 19640720 ANALOGS TO THE 7 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 4 DAYS AGO (D-4) FOR THE REGION FROM 20N to 70N LATITUDE AND 175E to 60W LONGITUDE INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES: 19520703 - 19750716 - 19680712 - 19640718 - 19880707 6 to 10 day Outlook Table OUTLOOK FOR JUL 20 - 24, 2006 STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN WASHINGTON A B OREGON A B NRN CALIF A B SRN CALIF A B IDAHO A B NEVADA A B W MONTANA A N E MONTANA N A WYOMING N A UTAH A B ARIZONA A N COLORADO B N NEW MEXICO N N N DAKOTA N N S DAKOTA N A NEBRASKA N B KANSAS N B OKLAHOMA B B N TEXAS B N S TEXAS B A W TEXAS B A MINNESOTA N N IOWA N B MISSOURI N B ARKANSAS N B LOUISIANA N N WISCONSIN A A ILLINOIS A B MISSISSIPPI N N MICHIGAN A A INDIANA A N OHIO A N KENTUCKY A B TENNESSEE N N ALABAMA N N NEW YORK A N VERMONT A A NEW HAMP A A MAINE A A MASS A A CONN A N RHODE IS A A PENN A N NEW JERSEY A N W VIRGINIA A N MARYLAND A N DELAWARE A N VIRGINIA A N N CAROLINA N A S CAROLINA N A GEORGIA N A FL PNHDL N A FL PENIN N A AK N SLOPE A N AK ALEUTIAN N A AK WESTERN N A AK INT BSN A N AK S INT N A AK SO COAST B A AK PNHDL A B 8 to 14 day Outlook Table OUTLOOK FOR JUL 22 - 28, 2006 STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN WASHINGTON A B OREGON A B NRN CALIF A B SRN CALIF A A IDAHO A B NEVADA A A W MONTANA N B E MONTANA N B WYOMING N B UTAH A N ARIZONA A A COLORADO N N NEW MEXICO N N N DAKOTA N N S DAKOTA N N NEBRASKA B N KANSAS B N OKLAHOMA B A N TEXAS B A S TEXAS B A W TEXAS B A MINNESOTA N N IOWA N A MISSOURI B A ARKANSAS B N LOUISIANA B A WISCONSIN N A ILLINOIS N A MISSISSIPPI B N MICHIGAN N A INDIANA N A OHIO N N KENTUCKY N N TENNESSEE N N ALABAMA B N NEW YORK A N VERMONT A N NEW HAMP A N MAINE A N MASS A N CONN A N RHODE IS A N PENN A N NEW JERSEY A N W VIRGINIA N N MARYLAND A N DELAWARE A N VIRGINIA A N N CAROLINA N N S CAROLINA N N GEORGIA N N FL PNHDL N N FL PENIN N N AK N SLOPE A N AK ALEUTIAN N A AK WESTERN A N AK INT BSN A N AK S INT A N AK SO COAST A N AK PNHDL A B LEGEND TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN A - ABOVE N - NEAR NORMAL A - ABOVE N - NEAR MEDIAN B - BELOW B - BELOW THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS PMDMRD. $$