PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSIONS FOR 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD 300 PM EDT TUE JUL 11 2006 6-10 DAY OUTLOOK VALID FOR JUL 17 - 21 2006 TODAYS ENSEMBLE MEANS AND OPERATIONAL MODEL SOLUTIONS CONTINUE TO BE IN REASONABLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE EXPECTED 500-HPA CIRCULATION PATTERN OVER NORTH AMERICA AND ADJACENT OCEANIC AREAS. THE MORE SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES IN OPINION ARE RELATED TO THE PREDICTED AMPLITUDES OF SOME OF THE LONGWAVE FEATURES, AND NOT SO MUCH IN TERMS OF PHASING. A SPLIT FLOW REGIME IS EVIDENT UPON INSPECTION OF THE VARIOUS MODEL SOLUTIONS. THE BROAD MODEL CONSENSUS PREDICTS A WEAK TROUGH ALONG THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST, A BROAD RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS (WITH AN ASSOCIATED POSITIVE HEIGHT ANOMALY CENTER NEAR OR OVER NORTH DAKOTA), AND A TROUGH NEAR THE ATLANTIC COAST. THE EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN AND THE 6Z OPERATIONAL GFS BOTH HAVE A FLATTER MEAN RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE HIGH PLAINS REGION, WHILE THE CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN PREDICTS THIS RIDGE WILL BE DISPLACED SLIGHTLY WESTWARD OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES OR NORTHERN BASIN. AT HIGH LATITUDES, A MODERATELY INTENSE MEAN TROUGH IS ANTICIPATED ACROSS THE BERING SEA WITH BELOW NORMAL 500-HPA HEIGHTS DOMINATING WESTERN AND SOUTHWESTERN PARTS OF ALASKA, WHILE A RIDGE INFLUENCES THE REMAINDER OF THE STATE. TODAYS OFFICIAL 500-HPA BLEND CONSISTS OF 10 PERCENT OF TODAY'S OPERATIONAL 0Z GFS CENTERED ON DAY 8...10 PERCENT OF TODAY'S OPERATIONAL 6Z GFS CENTERED ON DAY 8...10 PERCENT OF TODAY'S OPERATIONAL ECMWF CENTERED ON DAY 7...20 PERCENT OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8...20 PERCENT OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8...10 PERCENT OF TODAY'S CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8...AND 20 PERCENT OF TODAY'S EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 7. MODEL(S) OF THE DAY: NO PREFERENCE FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD IS ABOVE AVERAGE TODAY... 4 ON A SCALE OF 1 TO 5... DUE TO FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG THE ENSEMBLE MEANS AND OPERATIONAL MODEL SOLUTIONS AND GOOD CONTINUITY WITH YESTERDAYS SOLUTIONS. THE 6-10 DAY TEMPERATURE PROG IS BASED ON THE KLEIN... NEURAL NET... AND ANALOG SPECIFICATIONS FROM THE OFFICIAL BLEND... THE CPC AUTO TEMPERATURE FORECAST... AND THE CDC REFORECAST TEMPERATURE TOOL. MUCH OF THE CONUS IS FORECAST TO EXPERIENCE WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES DURING THIS PERIOD, WHILE ALASKA WILL LIKELY HAVE ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES IN EASTERN PARTS OF THE STATE AND BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES IN THE SOUTHWESTERN PART. THE 6-10 DAY PRECIPITATION PROG IS BASED ON THE NEURAL NET SPECIFICATIONS FROM THE OFFICIAL BLEND... THE CPC AUTO PRECIPITATION FORECAST... THE CDC REFORECAST PRECIPITATION TOOL... AND THE EMC AND CPC CALIBRATED PRECIPITATION PERCENTAGES. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST INDICATES ABOVE MEDIAN RAINFALL AMOUNTS FROM PARTS OF THE MIDWEST TO THE SOUTH ATLANTIC COAST, AND ALSO OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST ARIZONA AND SOUTHWEST NEW MEXICO. THE SUMMER MONSOON IS PRIMARILY RESPONSIBLE FOR THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS PRECIPITATION. 8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR JUL 19 - 25 2006: DURING WEEK 2, THE ASSORTED ENSEMBLE MEANS AND OPERATIONAL MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT REGARDING THE MID-TROPOSPHERIC CIRCULATION PATTERN OVER NORTH AMERICA, AND ALSO SHOW VERY LITTLE CHANGE FROM TODAY'S 6-10 DAY HEIGHT PATTERNS. AS IS GENERALLY THE CASE, THE OPERATIONAL RUNS TEND TO AMPLIFY THE LONG WAVES MORE THAN THE ENSEMBLE MEAN RUNS DO. THE EXCEPTION TODAY IS THE 6Z OPERATIONAL GFS (AND TO A LESSER DEGREE THE 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN), WHICH HAS COMPLETELY FLATTENED OUT THE CENTRAL U.S. RIDGE. THE OPERATIONAL 0Z GFS DIFFERS SOMEWHAT FROM THE OTHER MODEL SOLUTIONS IN THAT THE TROUGH PREDICTED OVER THE NOVA SCOTIA AREA DURING DAYS 6-10 IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT WESTWARD TO NEAR THE APPALACHIANS IN THE WEEK 2 PERIOD. DESPITE THE GOOD AGREEMENT BETWEEN MODELS, THERE IS STILL A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY REGARDING TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION DOWNSCALING. MANY OF THE DOWNSCALING TOOLS (WHICH OBJECTIVELY PRODUCE SURFACE FIELDS GIVEN 500-HPA HEIGHTS AS INPUT), ESPECIALLY PRECIPITATION, ARE SHOWING SIGNIFICANT DISCREPANCIES. THE PROBLEM IS FURTHER COMPOUNDED BY THE FACT THAT THE OFFICIAL BLENDED HEIGHT FIELD HAS VERY WEAK HEIGHT ANOMALIES PREDICTED OVER THE CONUS. THE OFFICIAL 8-14 DAY HEIGHT PROG CONSISTS OF 10 PERCENT OF TODAY'S OPERATIONAL 0Z GFS CENTERED ON DAY 11...10 PERCENT OF TODAY'S OPERATIONAL 6Z GFS CENTERED ON DAY 11...25 PERCENT OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11...25 PERCENT OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11...AND 30 PERCENT OF TODAY'S GFS SUPERENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11. FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD IS ABOVE AVERAGE TODAY FOR THE OFFICIAL HEIGHT FORECAST... 4 ON A SCALE OF 1 TO 5... BUT BELOW AVERAGE TODAY FOR THE TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION FORECASTS... 2 ON A SCALE OF 1 TO 5... DUE TO THE REASONS NOTED ABOVE. THE 8-14 DAY TEMPERATURE PROG IS BASED ON THE KLEIN... NEURAL NET... AND ANALOG SPECIFICATIONS FROM THE OFFICIAL BLEND... THE CPC AUTO TEMPERATURE FORECAST... AND THE CDC CALIBRATED TEMPERATURE FORECAST. THE 8-14 DAY PRECIPITATION PROG IS BASED ON THE CPC AUTOMATED PRECIPITATION FORECAST... CDC REFORECAST PRECIPITATION... ANALOG AND NEURAL NET SPECIFICATIONS FROM THE OFFICIAL BLEND... AND THE EMC AND CPC CALIBRATED PRECIPITATION PERCENTAGES. FORECASTER: ARTUSA NOTES: OPERATIONAL CHANGE: AS OF JULY 5 2005 SHADED MAPS HAVE REPLACED THE CONTOUR-ONLY MAPS ON THE CPC WEB SITE. THE CONTOURED MAPS ARE STILL AVAILABLE AT THEIR CURRENT FILE NAMES - SO DIRECT-LINKED USERS ARE NOT AFFECTED. AWIPS GRAPHICS ARE ALSO NOT AFFECTED BY THIS CHANGE. AUTOMATED FORECASTS ARE ISSUED ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. OTHERWISE - FORECASTS INCORPORATE FORECASTER INPUT. THE NOTATION FOR THE CATEGORICAL FORECAST INDICATED ON THE MAPS IS THE SAME AS THAT IN THE TABLES: A-ABOVE N-NEAR NORMAL B-BELOW IN THE SOUTHWEST AND OTHER CLIMATOLOGICALLY DRY REGIONS - THERE WILL BE A GREATER THAN 33.3% CHANCE OF NO PRECIPITATION AND OCCASIONALLY EVEN A NORMAL (I.E. MEDIAN) VALUE OF ZERO - ESPECIALLY DURING THE DRY SEASONS. IN SUCH CASES A FORECAST OF NEAR NORMAL IS EFFECTIVELY A FORECAST OF LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION. THE NARRATIVE DESCRIPTION OF THE FORECAST PATTERNS FOR TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION FOR BOTH THE 6-10 OR 8-14 DAY PERIODS HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED. THE STATE TABLES FOR BOTH THE 6-10 AND 8-14 DAY PERIODS ARE NOW CONTAINED IN THIS MESSAGE...AVAILABLE AS PMDMRD ON AWIPS. THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER USES 1971-2000 BASE PERIOD MEANS FOR TEMPERATURE...PRECIPITATION...AND 500-HPA HEIGHTS AS REFERENCE IN THE CLIMATE OUTLOOKS. THE NEXT SET OF LONG-LEAD MONTHLY AND SEASONAL OUTLOOKS WILL BE RELEASED ON JULY 20. NEW NOTE EFFECTIVE MAR 16 2004: THE GLOSSARY FORMERLY FOUND AT THIS LOCATION WILL NO LONGER BE TRANSMITTED AS PART OF THIS MESSAGE. IF YOU WISH TO SEE THE DEFINITIONS OF TERMS USED IN THESE MESSAGES... PLEASE GO TO THE CPC WEB PAGE AT (USE LOWER CASE) HTTP://WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV AND FOLLOW THE APPROPRIATE LINKS. ANALOGS TO THE 5 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 3 DAYS AGO (D-3) FOR THE REGION FROM 20N to 70N LATITUDE AND 175E to 60W LONGITUDE INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES: 19730622 - 19670626 - 19820712 - 19650629 - 19750715 ANALOGS TO THE 7 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 4 DAYS AGO (D-4) FOR THE REGION FROM 20N to 70N LATITUDE AND 175E to 60W LONGITUDE INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES: 19880720 - 19730622 - 19990712 - 19790719 - 19820712 6 to 10 day Outlook Table OUTLOOK FOR JUL 17 - 21, 2006 STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN WASHINGTON N B OREGON A B NRN CALIF A B SRN CALIF A N IDAHO A B NEVADA A B W MONTANA A N E MONTANA A N WYOMING A B UTAH A B ARIZONA A N COLORADO A B NEW MEXICO A N N DAKOTA A B S DAKOTA A B NEBRASKA A B KANSAS A B OKLAHOMA A B N TEXAS N B S TEXAS N N W TEXAS A B MINNESOTA A B IOWA A B MISSOURI A N ARKANSAS N N LOUISIANA N N WISCONSIN A N ILLINOIS A N MISSISSIPPI N N MICHIGAN A N INDIANA A A OHIO A N KENTUCKY N A TENNESSEE N A ALABAMA N N NEW YORK A B VERMONT A B NEW HAMP A B MAINE A B MASS A B CONN A B RHODE IS A B PENN A N NEW JERSEY A N W VIRGINIA A A MARYLAND A N DELAWARE A N VIRGINIA N A N CAROLINA N A S CAROLINA N A GEORGIA N A FL PNHDL N N FL PENIN N N AK N SLOPE A N AK ALEUTIAN B A AK WESTERN B A AK INT BSN A N AK S INT N A AK SO COAST A A AK PNHDL A B 8 to 14 day Outlook Table OUTLOOK FOR JUL 19 - 25, 2006 STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN WASHINGTON A B OREGON A B NRN CALIF A B SRN CALIF A N IDAHO A B NEVADA A B W MONTANA A N E MONTANA N N WYOMING A N UTAH A B ARIZONA A A COLORADO A N NEW MEXICO A A N DAKOTA N N S DAKOTA N A NEBRASKA A N KANSAS A B OKLAHOMA A B N TEXAS A B S TEXAS N N W TEXAS A B MINNESOTA N A IOWA A N MISSOURI A N ARKANSAS A N LOUISIANA A N WISCONSIN N N ILLINOIS A N MISSISSIPPI A N MICHIGAN A N INDIANA A N OHIO A N KENTUCKY A N TENNESSEE A N ALABAMA N N NEW YORK A B VERMONT A B NEW HAMP A B MAINE B B MASS A B CONN A B RHODE IS A B PENN A B NEW JERSEY A B W VIRGINIA A N MARYLAND A N DELAWARE A N VIRGINIA A N N CAROLINA N N S CAROLINA N N GEORGIA N A FL PNHDL N A FL PENIN N N AK N SLOPE A N AK ALEUTIAN A A AK WESTERN A A AK INT BSN A N AK S INT A N AK SO COAST A N AK PNHDL A B LEGEND TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN A - ABOVE N - NEAR NORMAL A - ABOVE N - NEAR MEDIAN B - BELOW B - BELOW THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS PMDMRD. $$