PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSIONS FOR 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD 300 PM EDT WED JUL 05 2006 6-10 DAY OUTLOOK VALID FOR JUL 11 - 15 2006 TODAYS ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLUTIONS ARE IN REASONABLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE EXPECTED 500-HPA CIRCULATION PATTERN OVER NORTH AMERICA. THE LONGWAVE PATTERN ACROSS THE NORTHERN HEMISPHERE REMAINS STABLE. ACROSS NORTH AMERICA AND ADJACENT AREAS... THE GFS SUPERENSEMBLE AND ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLUTIONS DEPICT A MODERATE AMPLITUDE PATTERN FEATURING A TROUGH OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA... A BROAD RIDGE CENTERED ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST... AND A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE LOCATED ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC. A NOTABLE DIFFERENCE AMONG THE MODEL GUIDANCE OCCURS OVER THE EAST WHERE THE CANADIAN AND 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLUTIONS PREDICT A TROUGH ALONG THE EAST COAST BUT THE ENSEMBLE MEANS FROM THE 0Z GFS... GFS SUPERENSEMBLE... AND ECMWF FAVOR MORE ZONAL FLOW. TODAYS OFFICIAL BLEND WAS WEIGHTED MORE HEAVILY TOWARDS THE GFS SUPERENSEMBLE MEAN AND ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEANS DUE TO BETTER CONTINUITY FROM PREVIOUS DAYS. A MAJORITY OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW A WEAKNESS IN THE 500-HPA HEIGHT FIELD OVER THE SOUTHEAST. ELSEWHERE... ACROSS THE CONUS... ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLUTIONS FEATURE AN EXPANSIVE AREA OF ABOVE NORMAL 500-HPA HEIGHTS FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE NORTHEAST AND SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL 500-HPA HEIGHTS ALONG THE WEST COAST. INDIVIDUAL GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS STRONGLY FAVOR A TROUGH OVER THE EAST PACIFIC BUT SPREAD AMONG THE MEMBERS INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY OVER EASTERN NORTH AMERICA. ABOVE NORMAL 500-HPA HEIGHTS WILL LIKELY FAVOR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FROM THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE MIDWEST AND NORTHEAST WHILE BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FOR THE GULF COAST AND FLORIDA. POSITIVE TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES SHOULD BE GREATEST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. THE PRESENCE OF THE TROUGH OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA SHOULD RESULT IN BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR PARTS OF ALASKA. THE WEAKNESS EVIDENT IN THE 500-HPA HEIGHT PATTERN OVER THE SOUTHEAST WILL INCREASE THE LIKELIHOOD FOR ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES AND MID-ATLANTIC. PRECIPITATION TOOLS ARE SUGGESTING THAT THE OHIO VALLEY COULD ALSO EXPERIENCE ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION. THE POSITION OF THE 500-HPA TROUGH OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA FAVORS ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION FOR THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND ALASKAN PANHANDLE. SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT FROM THE EAST PACIFIC INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST COMBINED THE SUPPRESSION FROM A STRONG 500-HPA RIDGE WILL LIKELY REDUCE THE MONSOONAL FLOW INTO ARIZONA AND NEW MEXICO WHERE BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED. TODAYS OFFICIAL 500-HPA BLEND CONSISTS OF 20 PERCENT OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8...10 PERCENT OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8...20 PERCENT OF TODAY'S GFS SUPERENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8...10 PERCENT OF TODAY'S CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8...AND 40 PERCENT OF TODAY'S EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 7. MODEL(S) OF THE DAY: ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD IS ABOVE AVERAGE TODAY... 4 ON A SCALE OF 1 TO 5... DUE TO REASONABLY GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG THE MODEL GUIDANCE AND VARIOUS TOOLS. THE 6-10 DAY TEMPERATURE PROG IS BASED ON THE KLEIN... NEURAL NET.. AND ANALOG SPECIFICATIONS FROM THE OFFICIAL BLEND... THE CPC AUTO TEMPERATURE FORECAST... AND THE CDC REFORECAST TEMPERATURE TOOL. THE 6-10 DAY PRECIPITATION PROG IS BASED ON THE ANALOG AND NEURAL NET SPECIFICATIONS FROM THE OFFICIAL BLEND... THE CPC AUTO PRECIPITATION FORECAST... THE CDC REFORECAST PRECIPITATION TOOL... AND THE EMC AND CPC CALIBRATED PRECIPITATION PERCENTAGES. 8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR JUL 13 - 19 2006: DURING WEEK 2... THE GFS AND CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLUTIONS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT FEATURING A MODERATELY STRONG 500-HPA TROUGH FROM THE GULF OF ALASKA INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST... A DOMINANT LARGE SCALE 500-HPA RIDGE FROM THE SOUTHWEST INTO THE PLAINS... AND A WEAK 500-HPA TROUGH OVER THE NORTHEAST. COMPARISON BETWEEN THE D+8 AND D+11 GFS SUPERENSEMBLE MEAN SOLUTIONS REVEALS VERY LITTLE CHANGE IN THE LONGWAVE PATTERN ACROSS NORTH AMERICA FROM THE DAY 6 - 10 PERIOD. ALL GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLUTIONS AND THE CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN INDICATE THAT 500-HPA HEIGHTS WILL BE AT OR ABOVE NORMAL OVER THE ENTIRE CONUS WITH THE HIGHEST POSITIVE ANOMALIES OVER THE GREAT LAKES. THE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALY PATTERN WILL LIKELY RESULT IN ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR MUCH OF THE CONUS EXCLUDING THE GULF COAST AND FLORIDA WHERE BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED. THE GREATEST LIKELIHOOD FOR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXISTS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST. AS A 500-HPA TROUGH PERSISTS ACROSS THE GULF OF ALASKA... BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATED FOR PARTS OF ALASKA. DUE TO CONFLICTING SIGNALS FROM THE MULTIPLE TOOLS... THE PRECIPITATION OUTLOOK WAS BASED PRIMARILY ON THE EMC AND CPC CALIBRATED PRECIPITATION PERCENTAGES AND THE AUTOMATED PRECIPITATION FORECAST. ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION MAY PERSIST ALONG THE EAST COAST WHILE BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION CONTINUES OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. MEANWHILE... ACROSS ALASKA... BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED FOR THE ALEUTIANS AND WESTERN ALASKA WHILE THE PANHANDLE EXPERIENCES ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION. THE GREATEST UNCERTAINTY FOR TODAYS WEEKS 2 PRECIPITATION OUTLOOK EXISTS OVER THE SOUTHWEST AS PRECIPITATION TOOLS DIFFER LARGELY ON HOW VIGOROUS THE MONSOON WILL BECOME. DURING MID TO LATE JULY... MONSOONAL MOISTURE TYPICALLY BEGINS TO PROGRESS NORTH FROM THE DESERT SOUTHWEST... BUT THE PREDICTED 500-HPA HEIGHT PATTERN CORRESPONDS TO BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION. THE OFFICIAL 8-14 DAY HEIGHT PROG CONSISTS OF 20 PERCENT OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11...20 PERCENT OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11...40 PERCENT OF TODAY'S GFS SUPERENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11...AND 20 PERCENT OF TODAY'S CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11. FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD IS AVERAGE TODAY... 3 ON A SCALE OF 1 TO 5... DUE TO GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG THE TEMPERATURE TOOLS OFFSET BY POOR AGREEMENT AMONG THE PRECIPITATION TOOLS. THE 8-14 DAY TEMPERATURE PROG IS BASED ON THE KLEIN... NEURAL NET... AND ANALOG SPECIFICATIONS FROM THE OFFICIAL BLEND... THE CPC AUTO TEMPERATURE FORECAST... AND THE CDC CALIBRATED TEMPERATURE FORECAST. THE 8-14 DAY PRECIPITATION PROG IS BASED ON THE CPC AUTOMATED PRECIPITATION FORECAST... CDC REFORECAST PRECIPITATION... ANALOG SPECIFICATIONS FROM THE OFFICIAL BLEND... AND THE EMC AND CPC CALIBRATED PRECIPITATION PERCENTAGES. FORECASTER: NOTES: OPERATIONAL CHANGE: AS OF JULY 5 2005 SHADED MAPS HAVE REPLACED THE CONTOUR-ONLY MAPS ON THE CPC WEB SITE. THE CONTOURED MAPS ARE STILL AVAILABLE AT THEIR CURRENT FILE NAMES - SO DIRECT-LINKED USERS ARE NOT AFFECTED. AWIPS GRAPHICS ARE ALSO NOT AFFECTED BY THIS CHANGE. AUTOMATED FORECASTS ARE ISSUED ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. OTHERWISE - FORECASTS INCORPORATE FORECASTER INPUT. THE NOTATION FOR THE CATEGORICAL FORECAST INDICATED ON THE MAPS IS THE SAME AS THAT IN THE TABLES: A-ABOVE N-NEAR NORMAL B-BELOW IN THE SOUTHWEST AND OTHER CLIMATOLOGICALLY DRY REGIONS - THERE WILL BE A GREATER THAN 33.3% CHANCE OF NO PRECIPITATION AND OCCASIONALLY EVEN A NORMAL (I.E. MEDIAN) VALUE OF ZERO - ESPECIALLY DURING THE DRY SEASONS. IN SUCH CASES A FORECAST OF NEAR NORMAL IS EFFECTIVELY A FORECAST OF LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION. THE NARRATIVE DESCRIPTION OF THE FORECAST PATTERNS FOR TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION FOR BOTH THE 6-10 OR 8-14 DAY PERIODS HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED. THE STATE TABLES FOR BOTH THE 6-10 AND 8-14 DAY PERIODS ARE NOW CONTAINED IN THIS MESSAGE...AVAILABLE AS PMDMRD ON AWIPS. THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER USES 1971-2000 BASE PERIOD MEANS FOR TEMPERATURE...PRECIPITATION...AND 500-HPA HEIGHTS AS REFERENCE IN THE CLIMATE OUTLOOKS. THE NEXT SET OF LONG-LEAD MONTHLY AND SEASONAL OUTLOOKS WILL BE RELEASED ON JULY 20. NEW NOTE EFFECTIVE MAR 16 2004: THE GLOSSARY FORMERLY FOUND AT THIS LOCATION WILL NO LONGER BE TRANSMITTED AS PART OF THIS MESSAGE. IF YOU WISH TO SEE THE DEFINITIONS OF TERMS USED IN THESE MESSAGES... PLEASE GO TO THE CPC WEB PAGE AT (USE LOWER CASE) HTTP://WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV AND FOLLOW THE APPROPRIATE LINKS. ANALOGS TO THE 5 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 3 DAYS AGO (D-3) FOR THE REGION FROM 20N to 70N LATITUDE AND 175E to 60W LONGITUDE INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES: 19670713 - 19590619 - 19610615 - 19900719 - 19850709 ANALOGS TO THE 7 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 4 DAYS AGO (D-4) FOR THE REGION FROM 20N to 70N LATITUDE AND 175E to 60W LONGITUDE INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES: 19670713 - 19610615 - 19850709 - 19850701 - 19900718 6 to 10 day Outlook Table OUTLOOK FOR JUL 11 - 15, 2006 STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN WASHINGTON B A OREGON N A NRN CALIF N N SRN CALIF N N IDAHO N N NEVADA N N W MONTANA N N E MONTANA A N WYOMING A N UTAH N B ARIZONA N B COLORADO A B NEW MEXICO N B N DAKOTA A N S DAKOTA A N NEBRASKA A N KANSAS A B OKLAHOMA N N N TEXAS N N S TEXAS N N W TEXAS N B MINNESOTA A A IOWA A N MISSOURI A N ARKANSAS N A LOUISIANA B A WISCONSIN A N ILLINOIS A A MISSISSIPPI B A MICHIGAN A N INDIANA A A OHIO A A KENTUCKY N A TENNESSEE N A ALABAMA B A NEW YORK A N VERMONT A N NEW HAMP A N MAINE A N MASS A N CONN A N RHODE IS A N PENN A A NEW JERSEY A A W VIRGINIA A A MARYLAND A A DELAWARE A A VIRGINIA N A N CAROLINA N A S CAROLINA B A GEORGIA B A FL PNHDL B A FL PENIN B A AK N SLOPE B B AK ALEUTIAN N N AK WESTERN N B AK INT BSN B N AK S INT N N AK SO COAST N N AK PNHDL N A 8 to 14 day Outlook Table OUTLOOK FOR JUL 13 - 19, 2006 STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN WASHINGTON N A OREGON N A NRN CALIF A N SRN CALIF A B IDAHO A N NEVADA A N W MONTANA A N E MONTANA A N WYOMING A B UTAH A B ARIZONA A B COLORADO A B NEW MEXICO A B N DAKOTA A N S DAKOTA A B NEBRASKA A B KANSAS A B OKLAHOMA N N N TEXAS N N S TEXAS N N W TEXAS N B MINNESOTA A N IOWA A N MISSOURI A N ARKANSAS N N LOUISIANA B N WISCONSIN A N ILLINOIS A N MISSISSIPPI B N MICHIGAN A N INDIANA A N OHIO A N KENTUCKY A N TENNESSEE N N ALABAMA B N NEW YORK A A VERMONT A A NEW HAMP A A MAINE A N MASS A A CONN A A RHODE IS A A PENN A A NEW JERSEY A A W VIRGINIA A A MARYLAND A A DELAWARE A A VIRGINIA N A N CAROLINA N A S CAROLINA N A GEORGIA B N FL PNHDL B N FL PENIN B A AK N SLOPE B B AK ALEUTIAN N B AK WESTERN B B AK INT BSN B N AK S INT N N AK SO COAST N B AK PNHDL N A LEGEND TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN A - ABOVE N - NEAR NORMAL A - ABOVE N - NEAR MEDIAN B - BELOW B - BELOW THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS PMDMRD. $$