PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSIONS FOR 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD 300 PM EDT FRI JUN 30 2006 6-10 DAY OUTLOOK VALID FOR JUL 06 - 10 2006 TODAYS ENSEMBLE MEAN AND OPERATIONAL SOLUTIONS ARE ALL IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT ON THE EXPECTED 500-HPA CIRCULATION PATTERN OVER THE PACIFIC - NORTH AMERICA SECTOR FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD. THE MAIN FEATURES PREDICTED FOR THE CONUS CONTINUE TO BE A MEAN RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE HIGH PLAINS, FLANKED BY AN UPSTREAM TROUGH JUST OFF THE WEST COAST AND A DOWNSTREAM TROUGH NEAR OR JUST INLAND FROM THE EAST COAST. MODEST DIFFERENCES EXIST BETWEEN MODEL SOLUTIONS REGARDING THE MEAN POSITION OF THE EAST COAST TROUGH AXIS. IN THE ALASKA / WESTERN CANADA SECTOR, THREE TROUGHS ARE ANTICIPATED... ONE EXTENDING SOUTHWARD FROM THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS, ANOTHER EXTENDING SOUTHWARD FROM NEAR THE EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN PANHANDLE, AND THE THIRD A TIGHTLY-WRAPPED LOW OVER THE CENTRAL CANADIAN ARCHIPELAGO... THE LAST TROUGH BEING RESPONSIBLE FOR THE LOWERING OF MID-TROPOSPHERIC HEIGHTS OVER THE NORTHEAST CORNER OF ALASKA. IN GENERAL, A VERY ACTIVE WAVE-6 LONG WAVE PATTERN IS FORECAST OVER THE HIGH LATITUDES OF THE NORTHERN HEMISPHERE. THIS SHORT A WAVELENGTH CAN BE FAIRLY STABLE DURING THE SUMMER, BUT IT IS NOT PREDICTABLE WITH AS MUCH SKILL AS THE LONGER WAVELENGTHS TYPICAL OF THE COLD SEASON, DUE TO THE FACT THAT NUMERICAL MODEL ERRORS GROW MORE RAPIDLY IN THE SHORT WAVELENGTHS. TODAYS OFFICIAL 500-HPA BLEND CONSISTS OF 10 PERCENT OF TODAY'S OPERATIONAL 0Z GFS CENTERED ON DAY 8...10 PERCENT OF TODAY'S OPERATIONAL 6Z GFS CENTERED ON DAY 8...10 PERCENT OF TODAY'S OPERATIONAL ECMWF CENTERED ON DAY 7...10 PERCENT OF TODAY'S DAVA CENTERED ON DAY 8...20 PERCENT OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8...30 PERCENT OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8...AND 10 PERCENT OF YESTERDAY'S 12Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 7. MODEL(S) OF THE DAY: 06Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN. WEIGHTS WERE ASSIGNED ROUGHLY ACCORDING TO RECENT AC SKILL OF THE DIFFERENT AVAILABLE MODELS. THE GFS SUPERENSEMBLE MEAN WAS NOT AVAILABLE IN TIME TODAY. FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD IS MUCH ABOVE AVERAGE TODAY... 5 ON A SCALE OF 1 TO 5... DUE TO EXCELLENT MODEL AGREEMENT, CONSISTENCY WITH PREVIOUS DAYS' FORECASTS, AND THE EXPECTATION OF A STABLE REGIME FOR THIS PERIOD AS WELL AS FOR DAYS 8-14. THE 6-10 DAY TEMPERATURE PROG IS BASED ON THE KLEIN... ANALOG AND NEURAL NET SPECIFICATIONS FROM THE OFFICIAL BLEND... THE CPC AUTO TEMPERATURE FORECAST... AND THE CDC REFORECAST TEMPERATURE TOOL. THE 6-10 DAY PRECIPITATION PROG IS BASED ON THE ANALOG AND NEURAL NET SPECIFICATIONS FROM THE OFFICIAL BLEND... THE CPC AUTO PRECIPITATION FORECAST... THE CDC REFORECAST PRECIPITATION TOOL... AND THE EMC AND CPC CALIBRATED PRECIPITATION PERCENTAGES. 8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR JUL 08 - 14 2006: THE WEEK 2 ENSEMBLE MEANS ARE IN GENERALLY GOOD AGREEMENT OVER THE PACIFIC - NORTH AMERICA SECTOR, WITH NEARLY ALL SOLUTIONS FORECASTING THE EAST COAST TROUGH TO FINALLY CLEAR THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL ATLANTIC COAST, THOUGH THIS CIRCULATION FEATURE WILL STILL HANG BACK ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES IN THE SOUTH. THERE CONTINUES TO BE SOME DISAGREEMENT AMONG THE MODELS REGARDING THE EXPECTED FLOW PATTERN OVER ALASKA. SOME MODELS CONTINUE TO PREDICT A TROUGH DIGGING ACROSS NORTHEASTERN AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE STATE, WHILE OTHERS PREFER RIDGING. THE OFFICIAL 8-14 DAY HEIGHT PROG CONSISTS OF 10 PERCENT OF TODAY'S OPERATIONAL 0Z GFS CENTERED ON DAY 11...10 PERCENT OF TODAY'S OPERATIONAL 6Z GFS CENTERED ON DAY 11...20 PERCENT OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11...20 PERCENT OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11...AND 40 PERCENT OF TODAY'S GFS SUPERENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11. FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD IS ABOVE AVERAGE... 4 ON A SCALE OF 1 TO 5. THE 8-14 DAY TEMPERATURE PROG IS BASED ON THE KLEIN - NEURAL NET - AND ANALOG SPECIFICATIONS FROM THE OFFICIAL BLEND... THE CPC AUTO TEMPERATURE FORECAST... AND THE CDC CALIBRATED TEMPERATURE FORECAST. THE 8-14 DAY PRECIPITATION PROG IS BASED ON THE CPC AUTOMATED PRECIPITATION FORECAST... CDC REFORECAST PRECIPITATION... ANALOG SPECIFICATIONS FROM THE OFFICIAL BLEND... AND ON THE EMC AND CPC CALIBRATED PRECIPITATION PERCENTAGES. FORECASTER: WAGNER/ARTUSA NOTES: OPERATIONAL CHANGE: AS OF JULY 5 2005 SHADED MAPS HAVE REPLACED THE CONTOUR-ONLY MAPS ON THE CPC WEB SITE. THE CONTOURED MAPS ARE STILL AVAILABLE AT THEIR CURRENT FILE NAMES - SO DIRECT-LINKED USERS ARE NOT AFFECTED. AWIPS GRAPHICS ARE ALSO NOT AFFECTED BY THIS CHANGE. AUTOMATED FORECASTS ARE ISSUED ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. OTHERWISE - FORECASTS INCORPORATE FORECASTER INPUT. THE NOTATION FOR THE CATEGORICAL FORECAST INDICATED ON THE MAPS IS THE SAME AS THAT IN THE TABLES: A-ABOVE N-NEAR NORMAL B-BELOW IN THE SOUTHWEST AND OTHER CLIMATOLOGICALLY DRY REGIONS - THERE WILL BE A GREATER THAN 33.3% CHANCE OF NO PRECIPITATION AND OCCASIONALLY EVEN A NORMAL (I.E. MEDIAN) VALUE OF ZERO - ESPECIALLY DURING THE DRY SEASONS. IN SUCH CASES A FORECAST OF NEAR NORMAL IS EFFECTIVELY A FORECAST OF LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION. THE NARRATIVE DESCRIPTION OF THE FORECAST PATTERNS FOR TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION FOR BOTH THE 6-10 OR 8-14 DAY PERIODS HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED. THE STATE TABLES FOR BOTH THE 6-10 AND 8-14 DAY PERIODS ARE NOW CONTAINED IN THIS MESSAGE...AVAILABLE AS PMDMRD ON AWIPS. THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER USES 1971-2000 BASE PERIOD MEANS FOR TEMPERATURE...PRECIPITATION...AND 500-HPA HEIGHTS AS REFERENCE IN THE CLIMATE OUTLOOKS. THE NEXT SET OF LONG-LEAD MONTHLY AND SEASONAL OUTLOOKS WILL BE RELEASED ON JULY 20. AN UPDATED MONTHLY FORECAST FOR JULY WILL BE RELEASED TODAY, JUNE 30. NEW NOTE EFFECTIVE MAR 16 2004: THE GLOSSARY FORMERLY FOUND AT THIS LOCATION WILL NO LONGER BE TRANSMITTED AS PART OF THIS MESSAGE. IF YOU WISH TO SEE THE DEFINITIONS OF TERMS USED IN THESE MESSAGES... PLEASE GO TO THE CPC WEB PAGE AT (USE LOWER CASE) HTTP://WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV AND FOLLOW THE APPROPRIATE LINKS. ANALOGS TO THE 5 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 3 DAYS AGO (D-3) FOR THE REGION FROM 20N to 70N LATITUDE AND 175E to 60W LONGITUDE INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES: 19940709 - 19610614 - 19500702 - 19670714 - 19790610 ANALOGS TO THE 7 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 4 DAYS AGO (D-4) FOR THE REGION FROM 20N to 70N LATITUDE AND 175E to 60W LONGITUDE INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES: 19610614 - 19940709 - 19500702 - 19990615 - 19720703 6 to 10 day Outlook Table OUTLOOK FOR JUL 06 - 10, 2006 STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN WASHINGTON A B OREGON A B NRN CALIF A B SRN CALIF A N IDAHO A B NEVADA A N W MONTANA A B E MONTANA A N WYOMING A N UTAH A N ARIZONA A N COLORADO A N NEW MEXICO N N N DAKOTA A B S DAKOTA A B NEBRASKA A B KANSAS N N OKLAHOMA B N N TEXAS B A S TEXAS B A W TEXAS B A MINNESOTA A B IOWA N B MISSOURI N N ARKANSAS B A LOUISIANA B A WISCONSIN A B ILLINOIS N B MISSISSIPPI B A MICHIGAN N B INDIANA N B OHIO N N KENTUCKY N N TENNESSEE N N ALABAMA B A NEW YORK N N VERMONT N N NEW HAMP N A MAINE N A MASS N A CONN N A RHODE IS N A PENN N N NEW JERSEY N A W VIRGINIA B N MARYLAND B N DELAWARE B A VIRGINIA B N N CAROLINA B A S CAROLINA B A GEORGIA B A FL PNHDL B A FL PENIN N A AK N SLOPE B A AK ALEUTIAN A N AK WESTERN A B AK INT BSN N N AK S INT A B AK SO COAST A B AK PNHDL N B 8 to 14 day Outlook Table OUTLOOK FOR JUL 08 - 14, 2006 STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN WASHINGTON N A OREGON N N NRN CALIF N N SRN CALIF N N IDAHO A N NEVADA N N W MONTANA A A E MONTANA A A WYOMING A N UTAH A N ARIZONA N N COLORADO A N NEW MEXICO N N N DAKOTA A N S DAKOTA A N NEBRASKA A N KANSAS A N OKLAHOMA N N N TEXAS B A S TEXAS B A W TEXAS N N MINNESOTA A B IOWA A B MISSOURI A N ARKANSAS N N LOUISIANA B A WISCONSIN A B ILLINOIS A B MISSISSIPPI B A MICHIGAN A B INDIANA A B OHIO A B KENTUCKY A N TENNESSEE N N ALABAMA B N NEW YORK A B VERMONT A B NEW HAMP A B MAINE A B MASS A B CONN A B RHODE IS A B PENN A B NEW JERSEY A B W VIRGINIA A N MARYLAND A B DELAWARE A B VIRGINIA N N N CAROLINA N N S CAROLINA N N GEORGIA N N FL PNHDL B N FL PENIN N N AK N SLOPE B N AK ALEUTIAN A N AK WESTERN A B AK INT BSN N B AK S INT A B AK SO COAST A B AK PNHDL A B LEGEND TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN A - ABOVE N - NEAR NORMAL A - ABOVE N - NEAR MEDIAN B - BELOW B - BELOW THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS PMDMRD. $$