PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSIONS FOR 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD 300 PM EDT WED JUN 28 2006 6-10 DAY OUTLOOK VALID FOR JUL 04 - 08 2006 TODAYS ENSEMBLE MEAN AND OPERATIONAL SOLUTIONS ARE ONLY IN FAIR AGREEMENT ON THE EXPECTED 500-HPA CIRCULATION PATTERN OVER NORTH AMERICA FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD. THE ECMWF-BASED SOLUTIONS HAVE BACKED OFF SIGNIFICANTLY ON THE IDEA OF BUILDING A RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEAST. SOME VARIATIONS IN THE AMPLITUDE AND PHASING OF THE LONG WAVES ARE INDICATED AMONG TODAYS DYNAMICAL HEIGHT PROGS, BUT THE KEY CIRCULATION FEATURES REMAIN THE SAME AS YESTERDAY. ONE AREA OF UNCERTAINTY IS THE EASTERN CONUS, WHERE A MEAN TROUGH IS FORECAST TO RESIDE ANYWHERE BETWEEN THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY AND OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST. THIS IS FAR MORE SIGNIFICANT FOR PRECIPITATION THAN FOR TEMPERATURE. IF THIS TROUGH HANGS BACK OVER THE OHIO VALLEY/APPALACHIANS, THE WATERLOGGED EAST COAST COULD BE IN FOR ADDITIONAL FLOOD PROBLEMS. HOWEVER, IF THE TROUGH REMAINS OFF THE COAST, ITS ACCOMPANYING PRECIPITATION WOULD STAY OFFSHORE. THE 0Z OPERATIONAL GFS HAS THE TROUGH FURTHEST WEST OVER THE EAST-CENTRAL U.S., WHEREAS THE EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN PREDICTS THE MEAN POSITION OF THE TROUGH AXIS TO BE THE FURTHEST EAST, ALONG THE 70W MERIDIAN. OVER THE WEST-CENTRAL UNITED STATES, MOST MODELS AGREE ON A MODERATELY INTENSE RIDGE, WITH A HINT OF EASTWARD MOVEMENT. THE AMPLITUDE OF THIS RIDGE HELPS TO DEFINE THE LOCATION OF THE TROUGH PREDICTED NEAR THE WEST COAST. ANOTHER AREA WHERE THE COMPUTER MODELS ARE HAVING SOME DIFFICULTY HANDLING IS NORTHERN ALASKA. THE CONSENSUS OF MODEL RUNS SUGGESTS THAT THE 500-HPA HEIGHTS WILL LOWER ACROSS NORTHEASTERN ALASKA, THOUGH IF THE 0Z OPERATIONAL GFS IS CORRECT, MOST OF THE 49TH STATE WOULD BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A TROUGH. A HIGH LATITUDE WAVE-5 PATTERN IMPLIES A TROUGH WOULD OCCASIONALLY DIP DOWN ACROSS NORTHERN ALASKA, AND THE TIMING OF SUCH FEATURES IS VERY UNCERTAIN. TODAYS OFFICIAL 500-HPA BLEND CONSISTS OF 10 PERCENT OF TODAY'S OPERATIONAL 0Z GFS CENTERED ON DAY 8...10 PERCENT OF TODAY'S OPERATIONAL 6Z GFS CENTERED ON DAY 8...30 PERCENT OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8...30 PERCENT OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8...10 PERCENT OF TODAY'S CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8...AND 10 PERCENT OF TODAY'S EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 7. MODEL(S) OF THE DAY: 0Z AND 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEANS FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD IS NEAR AVERAGE TODAY... 3 ON A SCALE OF 1 TO 5... PRIMARILY DUE TO UNCERTAINTIES MENTIONED EARLIER. THE 6-10 DAY TEMPERATURE PROG IS BASED ON THE KLEIN... ANALOG AND NEURAL NET SPECIFICATIONS FROM THE OFFICIAL BLEND... THE CPC AUTO TEMPERATURE FORECAST... AND THE CDC REFORECAST TEMPERATURE TOOL. THE 6-10 DAY PRECIPITATION PROG IS BASED ON THE ANALOG AND NEURAL NET SPECIFICATIONS FROM THE OFFICIAL BLEND... THE CPC AUTO PRECIPITATION FORECAST... THE CDC REFORECAST PRECIPITATION TOOL... AND ON THE EMC AND CPC CALIBRATED PRECIPITATION PERCENTAGES. 8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR JUL 06 - 12 2006: THE WEEK 2 ENSEMBLE MEAN AND OPERATIONAL SOLUTIONS ARE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT WITH EACH OTHER TODAY OVER NORTH AMERICA, WITH THE OPERATIONAL RUNS GENERALLY SHOWING MORE AMPLIFIED LONG WAVE FEATURES THAN THE ENSEMBLE MEANS. THERE IS ALSO CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE PREDICTED FLOW PATTERN OVER ALASKA. MOST MODELS HINT AT THE POSSIBILITY OF A CLOSED UPPER LOW DEVELOPING ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH OR GULF OF MEXICO AREA DURING THE WEEK 2 PERIOD. PROLONGED PERIODS OF RAIN WOULD BE A CONCERN ACROSS THE LOWER MS VALLEY AND/OR TEXAS IF THIS CLOSED LOW VERIFIES. THE OFFICIAL 8-14 DAY HEIGHT PROG CONSISTS OF 10 PERCENT OF TODAY'S OPERATIONAL 0Z GFS CENTERED ON DAY 11...10 PERCENT OF TODAY'S OPERATIONAL 6Z GFS CENTERED ON DAY 11...20 PERCENT OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11...20 PERCENT OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11...AND 40 PERCENT OF TODAY'S GFS SUPERENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11. FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD IS NEAR AVERAGE... 3 ON A SCALE OF 1 TO 5. THE 8-14 DAY TEMPERATURE PROG IS BASED ON THE KLEIN - NEURAL NET - AND ANALOG SPECIFICATIONS FROM THE OFFICIAL BLEND... THE CPC AUTO TEMPERATURE FORECAST... AND THE CDC CALIBRATED TEMPERATURE FORECAST. THE 8-14 DAY PRECIPITATION PROG IS BASED ON THE CPC AUTOMATED PRECIPITATION FORECAST... CDC REFORECAST PRECIPITATION... ANALOG SPECIFICATIONS FROM THE OFFICIAL BLEND... AND ON THE EMC AND CPC CALIBRATED PRECIPITATION PERCENTAGES. FORECASTER: ARTUSA NOTES: OPERATIONAL CHANGE: AS OF JULY 5 2005 SHADED MAPS HAVE REPLACED THE CONTOUR-ONLY MAPS ON THE CPC WEB SITE. THE CONTOURED MAPS ARE STILL AVAILABLE AT THEIR CURRENT FILE NAMES - SO DIRECT-LINKED USERS ARE NOT AFFECTED. AWIPS GRAPHICS ARE ALSO NOT AFFECTED BY THIS CHANGE. AUTOMATED FORECASTS ARE ISSUED ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. OTHERWISE - FORECASTS INCORPORATE FORECASTER INPUT. THE NOTATION FOR THE CATEGORICAL FORECAST INDICATED ON THE MAPS IS THE SAME AS THAT IN THE TABLES: A-ABOVE N-NEAR NORMAL B-BELOW IN THE SOUTHWEST AND OTHER CLIMATOLOGICALLY DRY REGIONS - THERE WILL BE A GREATER THAN 33.3% CHANCE OF NO PRECIPITATION AND OCCASIONALLY EVEN A NORMAL (I.E. MEDIAN) VALUE OF ZERO - ESPECIALLY DURING THE DRY SEASONS. IN SUCH CASES A FORECAST OF NEAR NORMAL IS EFFECTIVELY A FORECAST OF LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION. THE NARRATIVE DESCRIPTION OF THE FORECAST PATTERNS FOR TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION FOR BOTH THE 6-10 OR 8-14 DAY PERIODS HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED. THE STATE TABLES FOR BOTH THE 6-10 AND 8-14 DAY PERIODS ARE NOW CONTAINED IN THIS MESSAGE...AVAILABLE AS PMDMRD ON AWIPS. THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER USES 1971-2000 BASE PERIOD MEANS FOR TEMPERATURE...PRECIPITATION...AND 500-HPA HEIGHTS AS REFERENCE IN THE CLIMATE OUTLOOKS. THE NEXT SET OF LONG-LEAD MONTHLY AND SEASONAL OUTLOOKS WILL BE RELEASED ON JULY 20. AN UPDATED MONTHLY FORECAST FOR JULY WILL BE RELEASED ON JUNE 30. NEW NOTE EFFECTIVE MAR 16 2004: THE GLOSSARY FORMERLY FOUND AT THIS LOCATION WILL NO LONGER BE TRANSMITTED AS PART OF THIS MESSAGE. IF YOU WISH TO SEE THE DEFINITIONS OF TERMS USED IN THESE MESSAGES... PLEASE GO TO THE CPC WEB PAGE AT (USE LOWER CASE) HTTP://WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV AND FOLLOW THE APPROPRIATE LINKS. ANALOGS TO THE 5 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 3 DAYS AGO (D-3) FOR THE REGION FROM 20N to 70N LATITUDE AND 175E to 60W LONGITUDE INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES: 19500702 - 19610614 - 19890608 - 19720704 - 19990615 ANALOGS TO THE 7 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 4 DAYS AGO (D-4) FOR THE REGION FROM 20N to 70N LATITUDE AND 175E to 60W LONGITUDE INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES: 19500702 - 19610614 - 19890608 - 19990615 - 19720704 6 to 10 day Outlook Table OUTLOOK FOR JUL 04 - 08, 2006 STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN WASHINGTON A B OREGON A B NRN CALIF A B SRN CALIF N N IDAHO A B NEVADA A B W MONTANA A B E MONTANA A N WYOMING A N UTAH A B ARIZONA N N COLORADO N N NEW MEXICO N A N DAKOTA A N S DAKOTA A N NEBRASKA N N KANSAS N N OKLAHOMA B N N TEXAS B A S TEXAS B A W TEXAS N A MINNESOTA A N IOWA N N MISSOURI N N ARKANSAS N N LOUISIANA B N WISCONSIN N B ILLINOIS N B MISSISSIPPI N B MICHIGAN N B INDIANA N N OHIO N N KENTUCKY N N TENNESSEE N N ALABAMA N B NEW YORK B A VERMONT B A NEW HAMP B A MAINE N A MASS B A CONN B A RHODE IS B A PENN B A NEW JERSEY B A W VIRGINIA B N MARYLAND B A DELAWARE B A VIRGINIA B A N CAROLINA B A S CAROLINA B N GEORGIA B N FL PNHDL B B FL PENIN N N AK N SLOPE B B AK ALEUTIAN A B AK WESTERN A B AK INT BSN N B AK S INT A B AK SO COAST A B AK PNHDL A B 8 to 14 day Outlook Table OUTLOOK FOR JUL 06 - 12, 2006 STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN WASHINGTON A B OREGON A N NRN CALIF N N SRN CALIF N N IDAHO A N NEVADA A N W MONTANA A N E MONTANA A N WYOMING A N UTAH A N ARIZONA N N COLORADO N N NEW MEXICO N N N DAKOTA A N S DAKOTA A N NEBRASKA N N KANSAS N N OKLAHOMA B N N TEXAS B A S TEXAS B A W TEXAS B A MINNESOTA A B IOWA N B MISSOURI N N ARKANSAS B N LOUISIANA B A WISCONSIN N B ILLINOIS N B MISSISSIPPI B A MICHIGAN N B INDIANA N B OHIO N N KENTUCKY B N TENNESSEE B N ALABAMA B A NEW YORK N N VERMONT A B NEW HAMP A N MAINE A B MASS N N CONN N N RHODE IS N N PENN N N NEW JERSEY N N W VIRGINIA B N MARYLAND B A DELAWARE B A VIRGINIA B A N CAROLINA B A S CAROLINA B A GEORGIA B A FL PNHDL B A FL PENIN B N AK N SLOPE N N AK ALEUTIAN A N AK WESTERN N B AK INT BSN N B AK S INT A B AK SO COAST A B AK PNHDL A B LEGEND TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN A - ABOVE N - NEAR NORMAL A - ABOVE N - NEAR MEDIAN B - BELOW B - BELOW THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS PMDMRD. $$