PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSIONS FOR 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD 300 PM EDT TUE JUN 27 2006 6-10 DAY OUTLOOK VALID FOR JUL 03 - 07 2006 TODAYS ENSEMBLE MEAN AND OPERATIONAL SOLUTIONS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT ON THE EXPECTED 500-HPA CIRCULATION PATTERN OVER NORTH AMERICA FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD. WHILE THE GFS-BASED SOLUTIONS FORECAST A MEAN PATTERN SIMILAR TO YESTERDAYS OFFICIAL HEIGHT PROG, THE ECMWF-BASED SOLUTIONS (ESPECIALLY THE DETERMINISTIC 0Z ECMWF) FORECAST SIGNIFICANT RIDGING OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN PORTION OF THE NATION. THE GFS SOLUTIONS, AS WELL AS THE CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN, CONTINUE TO PREDICT A PROMINENT TROUGH CENTERED NEAR THE EASTERN SEABOARD, PLUS OR MINUS 5 DEGREES OF LONGITUDE. THE EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN ANTICIPATES THE DEVELOPMENT OF WEAK RIDGING ALONG THE GULF COAST, WITH A MORE SHALLOW TROUGH NEAR THE ATLANTIC COAST. THE 0Z OPERATIONAL ECMWF HOWEVER, HAS A MUCH STRONGER RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEAST WHICH REPRESENTS THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE ATLANTIC SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THE IDEA OF BUILDING THE SOUTHEAST RIDGE IS BEING DOWNPLAYED TODAY, AT LEAST UNTIL SUBSEQUENT MODEL RUNS REINFORCE THIS NOTION. OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES, MOST MODELS AGREE ON A MODERATELY INTENSE RIDGE WHICH EXTENDS NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS BRITISH COLUMBIA AND SOUTHERN ALASKA. ALTHOUGH THERE ARE SOME RELATIVELY MINOR DIFFERENCES BETWEEN MODELS, IT LOOKS AS THOUGH VERY WEAK TROUGHING (COMPARED TO AVERAGE FOR EARLY SUMMER) WILL EXTEND FROM THE SOUTHWEST ALEUTIANS EASTWARD ACROSS THE GULF OF ALASKA AND THEN SOUTHEASTWARD OFF THE WEST COAST. THE 0Z OPERATIONAL ECMWF PREDICTS A RESPECTABLE CYCLONIC VORTEX OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA, WHILE THE CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN FORECASTS THIS FEATURE OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF ALASKA. ANOTHER AREA WHERE THE COMPUTER MODELS ARE HAVING SOME DIFFICULTY HANDLING IS NORTHERN ALASKA. THE GFS SUPERENSEMBLE MEAN HAS LOWERED HEIGHTS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST PART OF THE STATE, AS DOES THE 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN. THE OPERATIONAL 6Z GFS HAS MORE RIDGING OVER THAT AREA. FINALLY, NEARLY ALL MODEL SOLUTIONS AGREE ON WEAK TO MODERATE RIDGING ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC, WHICH IS PROBABLY RESPONDING TO THE AMPLITUDE READJUSTMENTS OF THE UPSTREAM RIDGE/TROUGH COUPLET OVER THE CONUS. TODAYS OFFICIAL 500-HPA BLEND CONSISTS OF 10 PERCENT OF TODAY'S OPERATIONAL 0Z GFS CENTERED ON DAY 8...10 PERCENT OF TODAY'S OPERATIONAL 6Z GFS CENTERED ON DAY 8...15 PERCENT OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8...15 PERCENT OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8...30 PERCENT OF TODAY'S GFS SUPERENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8...10 PERCENT OF TODAY'S CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8...AND 10 PERCENT OF TODAY'S EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 7. MODEL(S) OF THE DAY: GFS SUPERENSEMBLE MEAN FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD IS NEAR AVERAGE TODAY... 3 ON A SCALE OF 1 TO 5... PRIMARILY DUE TO UNCERTAINTIES OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S. MENTIONED EARLIER. THE 6-10 DAY TEMPERATURE PROG IS BASED ON THE KLEIN... ANALOG AND NEURAL NET SPECIFICATIONS FROM THE OFFICIAL BLEND... THE CPC AUTO TEMPERATURE FORECAST... AND THE CDC REFORECAST TEMPERATURE TOOL. THE TWO AREAS OF BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES THAT ARE PREDICTED ARE PRIMARILY DUE TO EXPECTED PRECIPITATION/CLOUDINESS AREAS RATHER THAN COLD ADVECTION PATTERNS, AS IS COMMON FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. THE 6-10 DAY PRECIPITATION PROG IS BASED ON THE ANALOG AND NEURAL NET SPECIFICATIONS FROM THE OFFICIAL BLEND... THE CPC AUTO PRECIPITATION FORECAST... THE CDC REFORECAST PRECIPITATION TOOL... AND ON THE EMC AND CPC CALIBRATED PRECIPITATION PERCENTAGES. 8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR JUL 05 - 11 2006: THE WEEK 2 ENSEMBLE MEAN AND OPERATIONAL SOLUTIONS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH EACH OTHER TODAY OVER NORTH AMERICA. THE BROAD-SCALE PATTERN PREDICTED BY THE ENSEMBLE MEANS FEATURES A MEAN RIDGE FROM THE WESTERN CONUS NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS WESTERN CANADA AND ALASKA TO THE BERING STRAIT. POSITIVE HEIGHT ANOMALY CENTERS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS RIDGE ARE EXPECTED TO BE JUST NORTH OF IDAHO, AND OVER THE SEWARD PENINSULA OF WEST-CENTRAL ALASKA. MONSOONAL MOISTURE SHOULD MIGRATE FROM NORTHWEST MEXICO INTO PARTS OF THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S. A FULL LATITUDE TROUGH IS DEPICTED BY THE ENSEMBLE MEANS OVER FAR EASTERN NORTH AMERICA, WITH THE U.S. PORTION OF THE TROUGH CENTERED NEAR THE APPALACHIANS. THE CANADIAN D+11 ENSEMBLE MEAN IS SIMILAR IN MANY RESPECTS TO THE OTHER ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLUTIONS, ALTHOUGH IT HAS THE EAST COAST TROUGH JUST OFF THE COAST. IT ALSO HAS A BROAD TROUGH ACROSS THE GULF OF ALASKA AND THE EASTERN PACIFIC. THE 6Z OPERATIONAL GFS PREDICTS A SIGNIFICANT TROUGH OFF THE WEST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES, WHILE THE 0Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN EXPECTS THIS FEATURE TO BE VERY CLOSE TO THE WEST COAST. THE OFFICIAL 500-HPA HEIGHT PROG SHOWS SOME UNDERCUTTING OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST RIDGE, ALLOWING CLOUDINESS AND PRECIPITATION TO MOVE INTO PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHWEST U.S. THE OFFICIAL 8-14 DAY HEIGHT PROG CONSISTS OF 15 PERCENT OF TODAY'S OPERATIONAL 0Z GFS CENTERED ON DAY 11...15 PERCENT OF TODAY'S OPERATIONAL 6Z GFS CENTERED ON DAY 11...15 PERCENT OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11...15 PERCENT OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11...30 PERCENT OF TODAY'S GFS SUPERENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11...AND 10 PERCENT OF TODAY'S CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11. FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD IS ABOVE AVERAGE... 4 ON A SCALE OF 1 TO 5. THE 8-14 DAY TEMPERATURE PROG IS BASED ON THE KLEIN - NEURAL NET - AND ANALOG SPECIFICATIONS FROM THE OFFICIAL BLEND... THE CPC AUTO TEMPERATURE FORECAST... AND THE CDC CALIBRATED TEMPERATURE FORECAST. THE 8-14 DAY PRECIPITATION PROG IS BASED ON THE CPC AUTOMATED PRECIPITATION FORECAST... CDC REFORECAST PRECIPITATION... AND ANALOG SPECIFICATIONS FROM THE OFFICIAL BLEND. MCS ACTIVITY COULD DEVELOP ALONG THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE WESTERLIES IN THE NORTH-CENTRAL STATES, WHICH IS WHY MOST OF THAT AREA HAS BEEN LEFT AS NEAR-MEDIAN, AND NOT BELOW-MEDIAN. FORECASTER: ARTUSA NOTES: OPERATIONAL CHANGE: AS OF JULY 5 2005 SHADED MAPS HAVE REPLACED THE CONTOUR-ONLY MAPS ON THE CPC WEB SITE. THE CONTOURED MAPS ARE STILL AVAILABLE AT THEIR CURRENT FILE NAMES - SO DIRECT-LINKED USERS ARE NOT AFFECTED. AWIPS GRAPHICS ARE ALSO NOT AFFECTED BY THIS CHANGE. AUTOMATED FORECASTS ARE ISSUED ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. OTHERWISE - FORECASTS INCORPORATE FORECASTER INPUT. THE NOTATION FOR THE CATEGORICAL FORECAST INDICATED ON THE MAPS IS THE SAME AS THAT IN THE TABLES: A-ABOVE N-NEAR NORMAL B-BELOW IN THE SOUTHWEST AND OTHER CLIMATOLOGICALLY DRY REGIONS - THERE WILL BE A GREATER THAN 33.3% CHANCE OF NO PRECIPITATION AND OCCASIONALLY EVEN A NORMAL (I.E. MEDIAN) VALUE OF ZERO - ESPECIALLY DURING THE DRY SEASONS. IN SUCH CASES A FORECAST OF NEAR NORMAL IS EFFECTIVELY A FORECAST OF LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION. THE NARRATIVE DESCRIPTION OF THE FORECAST PATTERNS FOR TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION FOR BOTH THE 6-10 OR 8-14 DAY PERIODS HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED. THE STATE TABLES FOR BOTH THE 6-10 AND 8-14 DAY PERIODS ARE NOW CONTAINED IN THIS MESSAGE...AVAILABLE AS PMDMRD ON AWIPS. THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER USES 1971-2000 BASE PERIOD MEANS FOR TEMPERATURE...PRECIPITATION...AND 500-HPA HEIGHTS AS REFERENCE IN THE CLIMATE OUTLOOKS. THE NEXT SET OF LONG-LEAD MONTHLY AND SEASONAL OUTLOOKS WILL BE RELEASED ON JULY 20. AN UPDATED MONTHLY FORECAST FOR JULY WILL BE RELEASED ON JUNE 30. NEW NOTE EFFECTIVE MAR 16 2004: THE GLOSSARY FORMERLY FOUND AT THIS LOCATION WILL NO LONGER BE TRANSMITTED AS PART OF THIS MESSAGE. IF YOU WISH TO SEE THE DEFINITIONS OF TERMS USED IN THESE MESSAGES... PLEASE GO TO THE CPC WEB PAGE AT (USE LOWER CASE) HTTP://WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV AND FOLLOW THE APPROPRIATE LINKS. ANALOGS TO THE 5 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 3 DAYS AGO (D-3) FOR THE REGION FROM 20N to 70N LATITUDE AND 175E to 60W LONGITUDE INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES: 19500702 - 19610614 - 19890608 - 19990615 - 19720704 ANALOGS TO THE 7 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 4 DAYS AGO (D-4) FOR THE REGION FROM 20N to 70N LATITUDE AND 175E to 60W LONGITUDE INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES: 19500702 - 19870606 - 19610613 - 19890609 - 19990615 6 to 10 day Outlook Table OUTLOOK FOR JUL 03 - 07, 2006 STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN WASHINGTON A B OREGON A B NRN CALIF A B SRN CALIF A N IDAHO A B NEVADA A B W MONTANA A B E MONTANA A N WYOMING A N UTAH A B ARIZONA A N COLORADO N N NEW MEXICO N A N DAKOTA A N S DAKOTA A N NEBRASKA N N KANSAS N N OKLAHOMA N N N TEXAS B A S TEXAS B A W TEXAS N A MINNESOTA N N IOWA N N MISSOURI N N ARKANSAS N N LOUISIANA N N WISCONSIN N B ILLINOIS N B MISSISSIPPI N B MICHIGAN N B INDIANA N N OHIO B N KENTUCKY B N TENNESSEE N N ALABAMA N B NEW YORK B A VERMONT B A NEW HAMP B A MAINE N A MASS B A CONN B A RHODE IS B A PENN B A NEW JERSEY B A W VIRGINIA B N MARYLAND B A DELAWARE B A VIRGINIA B A N CAROLINA B A S CAROLINA B N GEORGIA N N FL PNHDL N B FL PENIN A N AK N SLOPE A B AK ALEUTIAN A B AK WESTERN A B AK INT BSN A B AK S INT A B AK SO COAST A B AK PNHDL A B 8 to 14 day Outlook Table OUTLOOK FOR JUL 05 - 11, 2006 STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN WASHINGTON A B OREGON A B NRN CALIF A N SRN CALIF A N IDAHO A B NEVADA A N W MONTANA A N E MONTANA A N WYOMING A N UTAH A N ARIZONA A A COLORADO N N NEW MEXICO N A N DAKOTA N N S DAKOTA N N NEBRASKA N N KANSAS N N OKLAHOMA N N N TEXAS B A S TEXAS B A W TEXAS N A MINNESOTA N B IOWA N N MISSOURI N N ARKANSAS B N LOUISIANA B N WISCONSIN N B ILLINOIS N B MISSISSIPPI B N MICHIGAN N B INDIANA N B OHIO N N KENTUCKY B N TENNESSEE B N ALABAMA B N NEW YORK N N VERMONT B A NEW HAMP B A MAINE B A MASS B A CONN B A RHODE IS B A PENN B N NEW JERSEY B A W VIRGINIA B N MARYLAND B A DELAWARE B A VIRGINIA B N N CAROLINA B A S CAROLINA B A GEORGIA B N FL PNHDL B A FL PENIN N A AK N SLOPE A N AK ALEUTIAN A N AK WESTERN A B AK INT BSN A B AK S INT A B AK SO COAST A B AK PNHDL A B LEGEND TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN A - ABOVE N - NEAR NORMAL A - ABOVE N - NEAR MEDIAN B - BELOW B - BELOW THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS PMDMRD. $$