PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSIONS FOR 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD 300 PM EDT FRI JUN 23 2006 6-10 DAY OUTLOOK VALID FOR JUN 29 - JUL 03, 2006 TODAYS MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE EXPECTED 500-HPA CIRCULATION PATTERN OVER NORTH AMERICA FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD... WITH FAIRLY GOOD CONSISTENCY WITH PAST MODEL RUNS AND AMONG THE GFS... ECMWF... AND CANADIAN MODELS. THE OVERALL PATTERN CONTINUES TO SHOW A WEAK TROUGH NEAR THE WEST COAST OF NORTH AMERICA... A RIDGE OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST... A TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTHWARD FROM EASTERN CANADA ALL THE WAY DOWN TO THE GULF OF MEXICO... AND RIDGING FARTHER EAST NEAR ATLANTIC CANADA. THE MODELS DO SHOW A MORE EXTENSIVE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ALOFT OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN STATES... RESULTING IN A FORECAST OF LESS WARMTH AND MORE COOLING IN THESE REGIONS. LOOKING AT THE RAINFALL FORECAST... THE HEAVY RAINFALL EPISODE SET TO THREATEN FLOODING OVER THE NEAR-TERM FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES NORTH TO NEW ENGLAND SHOULD BE NEARLY OVER BY THE TIME DAY 6 ROLLS AROUND... BUT THE TENDENCY FOR MOIST SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW SHOULD CONTINUE... AND A FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE REGION LATE IN THE PERIOD MAY TRIGGER ADDITIONAL HEAVY SHOWERS. NEVERTHELESS... RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN THIS REGION SHOULD NOT BE COMPETITIVE WITH THOSE EXPECTED DURING THE FIRST 5 DAYS OF THE PERIOD. TODAYS OFFICIAL 500-HPA BLEND CONSISTS OF 20 PERCENT OF TODAY'S OPERATIONAL 6Z GFS CENTERED ON DAY 8...20 PERCENT OF TODAY'S OPERATIONAL ECMWF CENTERED ON DAY 7...40 PERCENT OF TODAY'S GFS SUPERENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8...AND 20 PERCENT OF TODAY'S EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 7. MODEL(S) OF THE DAY: SUPER GFS ENSEMBLE FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD IS ABOVE AVERAGE TODAY... 4 ON A SCALE OF 1 TO 5... DUE TO GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG THE FORECAST MODEL SOLUTIONS. THE 6-10 DAY TEMPERATURE PROG IS BASED ON THE KLEIN AND ANALOG SPECIFICATIONS FROM THE OFFICIAL BLEND AND VARIOUS MODELS... THE CPC AUTO TEMPERATURE FORECAST... AND 850-HPA ANOMALIES FROM THE GFS RUNS. THE 6-10 DAY PRECIPITATION PROG IS BASED ON THE ANALOG SPECIFICATIONS FROM THE OFFICIAL BLEND AND THE INDIVIDUAL FORECAST MODELS... THE CPC AUTO PRECIPITATION FORECAST... AND CALIBRATED PRECIPITATION FROM THE 0Z AND 06Z OPERATIONAL GFS RUN. 8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR JUL 01 - 07 2006: FOR WEEK 2... TODAYS MODELS ARE IN RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE OVERALL 500-HPA FLOW PATTERN OVER THE NORTH AMERICAN CONTINENT. THE WEEK 2 UPPER AIR PATTERN IS CONSISTENT WITH THE MORE RECENT GFS RUNS SHOWING DEEPER TROUGHING BOTH NEAR THE WEST COAST AND OVER THE EASTERN SEABOARD. THIS RESULTS IN SLIGHTLY MORE WETNESS AND COOLNESS OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN STATES AND LESS WARMTH IN THE WEST. THE OFFICIAL 8-14 DAY HEIGHT PROG CONSISTS OF 30 PERCENT OF TODAY'S OPERATIONAL 6Z GFS CENTERED ON DAY 11...30 PERCENT OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11...20 PERCENT OF TODAY'S GFS SUPERENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11...AND 20 PERCENT OF TODAY'S CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11. FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD IS ABOVE AVERAGE... 4 ON A SCALE OF 1 TO 5. THE 8-14 DAY TEMPERATURE PROG IS BASED ON THE KLEIN SPECIFICATIONS FROM THE OFFICIAL BLEND AND VARIOUS MODELS... ANALOGUES FROM THE OFFICIAL 500-HPA BLEND... THE CPC AUTO TEMPERATURE FORECAST... AND THE CDC CALIBRATED TEMPERATURE FORECAST. THE 8-14 DAY PRECIPITATION PROG IS BASED ON THE CPC AUTOMATED PRECIPITATION FORECAST... ANALOG SPECIFICATIONS FROM THE OFFICIAL BLEND...AND CALIBRATED PRECIPITATION FROM THE GFS OPERATIONAL AND ENSEMBLE RUNS. FORECASTER: D. LE COMTE NOTES: OPERATIONAL CHANGE: AS OF JULY 5 2005 SHADED MAPS HAVE REPLACED THE CONTOUR-ONLY MAPS ON THE CPC WEB SITE. THE CONTOURED MAPS ARE STILL AVAILABLE AT THEIR CURRENT FILE NAMES - SO DIRECT-LINKED USERS ARE NOT AFFECTED. AWIPS GRAPHICS ARE ALSO NOT AFFECTED BY THIS CHANGE. AUTOMATED FORECASTS ARE ISSUED ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. OTHERWISE - FORECASTS INCORPORATE FORECASTER INPUT. THE NOTATION FOR THE CATEGORICAL FORECAST INDICATED ON THE MAPS IS THE SAME AS THAT IN THE TABLES: A-ABOVE N-NEAR NORMAL B-BELOW IN THE SOUTHWEST AND OTHER CLIMATOLOGICALLY DRY REGIONS - THERE WILL BE A GREATER THAN 33.3% CHANCE OF NO PRECIPITATION AND OCCASIONALLY EVEN A NORMAL (I.E. MEDIAN) VALUE OF ZERO - ESPECIALLY DURING THE DRY SEASONS. IN SUCH CASES A FORECAST OF NEAR NORMAL IS EFFECTIVELY A FORECAST OF LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION. THE NARRATIVE DESCRIPTION OF THE FORECAST PATTERNS FOR TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION FOR BOTH THE 6-10 OR 8-14 DAY PERIODS HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED. THE STATE TABLES FOR BOTH THE 6-10 AND 8-14 DAY PERIODS ARE NOW CONTAINED IN THIS MESSAGE...AVAILABLE AS PMDMRD ON AWIPS. THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER USES 1971-2000 BASE PERIOD MEANS FOR TEMPERATURE...PRECIPITATION...AND 500-HPA HEIGHTS AS REFERENCE IN THE CLIMATE OUTLOOKS. THE NEXT SET OF LONG-LEAD MONTHLY AND SEASONAL OUTLOOKS WILL BE RELEASED ON JULY 20. AN UPDATED MONTHLY FORECAST FOR JULY WILL BE RELEASED ON JUNE 30. NEW NOTE EFFECTIVE MAR 16 2004: THE GLOSSARY FORMERLY FOUND AT THIS LOCATION WILL NO LONGER BE TRANSMITTED AS PART OF THIS MESSAGE. IF YOU WISH TO SEE THE DEFINITIONS OF TERMS USED IN THESE MESSAGES... PLEASE GO TO THE CPC WEB PAGE AT (USE LOWER CASE) HTTP://WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV AND FOLLOW THE APPROPRIATE LINKS. ANALOGS TO THE 5 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 3 DAYS AGO (D-3) FOR THE REGION FROM 20N to 70N LATITUDE AND 175E to 60W LONGITUDE INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES: 19940612 - 19830704 - 19870604 - 19930617 - 19540621 ANALOGS TO THE 7 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 4 DAYS AGO (D-4) FOR THE REGION FROM 20N to 70N LATITUDE AND 175E to 60W LONGITUDE INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES: 19940611 - 19830704 - 19880615 - 19930618 - 19540621 6 to 10 day Outlook Table OUTLOOK FOR JUN 29 - JUL 03, 2006 STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN WASHINGTON A B OREGON A B NRN CALIF A B SRN CALIF A N IDAHO A N NEVADA A N W MONTANA A B E MONTANA A B WYOMING A N UTAH A N ARIZONA A N COLORADO B A NEW MEXICO N A N DAKOTA N B S DAKOTA B N NEBRASKA B N KANSAS B A OKLAHOMA B A N TEXAS B A S TEXAS N A W TEXAS B A MINNESOTA N N IOWA B N MISSOURI B N ARKANSAS B N LOUISIANA B N WISCONSIN N N ILLINOIS N N MISSISSIPPI B N MICHIGAN N N INDIANA N N OHIO N N KENTUCKY N N TENNESSEE N N ALABAMA B N NEW YORK N A VERMONT N A NEW HAMP N A MAINE A A MASS N A CONN N A RHODE IS N A PENN N A NEW JERSEY N A W VIRGINIA N N MARYLAND N A DELAWARE N A VIRGINIA N A N CAROLINA N A S CAROLINA N A GEORGIA B N FL PNHDL B N FL PENIN N N AK N SLOPE A A AK ALEUTIAN N B AK WESTERN N N AK INT BSN A N AK S INT A B AK SO COAST A B AK PNHDL A B 8 to 14 day Outlook Table OUTLOOK FOR JUL 01 - 07, 2006 STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN WASHINGTON A B OREGON A B NRN CALIF A N SRN CALIF N N IDAHO A N NEVADA A N W MONTANA A N E MONTANA A N WYOMING N N UTAH N N ARIZONA N N COLORADO N A NEW MEXICO N N N DAKOTA N N S DAKOTA N N NEBRASKA B N KANSAS B A OKLAHOMA B A N TEXAS B A S TEXAS N A W TEXAS N A MINNESOTA N B IOWA B N MISSOURI B N ARKANSAS B A LOUISIANA B A WISCONSIN N B ILLINOIS B N MISSISSIPPI B A MICHIGAN N B INDIANA B N OHIO N N KENTUCKY B N TENNESSEE B N ALABAMA B A NEW YORK N N VERMONT N N NEW HAMP N A MAINE N A MASS N A CONN N A RHODE IS N A PENN N N NEW JERSEY N A W VIRGINIA N N MARYLAND N A DELAWARE N A VIRGINIA N A N CAROLINA N A S CAROLINA B A GEORGIA B A FL PNHDL B A FL PENIN B N AK N SLOPE A A AK ALEUTIAN A N AK WESTERN A N AK INT BSN A N AK S INT A B AK SO COAST A B AK PNHDL A B LEGEND TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN A - ABOVE N - NEAR NORMAL A - ABOVE N - NEAR MEDIAN B - BELOW B - BELOW THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS PMDMRD. $$