PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSIONS FOR 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD 300 PM EDT THU JUN 22 2006 6-10 DAY OUTLOOK VALID FOR JUN 28 - JUL 02, 2006 TODAYS MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE EXPECTED 500-HPA CIRCULATION PATTERN OVER NORTH AMERICA FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD. ALL ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLUTIONS DEPICT A MODERATE AMPLITUDE PATTERN CONSISTING OF A TROUGH LOCATED JUST OFF THE WEST COAST... A RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST... AND A BROAD TROUGH CENTERED OVER THE OHIO VALLEY. THE OPERATIONAL RUNS OF THE GFS SHOW SIMILAR PATTERNS... BUT THE 0Z ECWMF OPERATIONAL RUN HAS A HIGHER AMPLITUDE PATTERN AND CLOSES OFF A LOW IN THE OHIO VALLEY. THIS SOLUTION WAS DISREGARDED SINCE IT WAS INCONSISTENT WITH THE OTHER MODEL SOLUTIONS. THE SPAGHETTI DIAGRAMS FOR THE GFS INDICATED A LARGE AMOUNT OF SPREAD OVER THE PACIFIC... LOW SPREAD WITH REGARD TO THE STRENGTH OF THE RIDGE IN THE WEST AND A MODERATE AMOUNT OF SPREAD FOR THE TROUGH IN THE MIDWEST. THE ECMWF HAS A RELATIVELY LOW AMOUNT OF SPREAD ACROSS THE ENTIRE NORTH AMERICAN SECTOR... WHILE THE CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEMBERS HAVE A LOW AMOUNT OF SPREAD IN THE WEST... AND HIGHER AMOUNTS OF SPREAD OVER THE PACIFIC AND THE OHIO VALLEY. THE BROAD TROUGH AND A FRONTAL BOUNDARY ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD SHOULD FOCUS MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION AND LEAD TO ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION UP AND DOWN THE EAST COAST. THE WESTERN RIDGE SHOULD KEEP CONDITIONS ON THE WARM AND DRY SIDE OVER MUCH OF THE WEST. THE BROAD TROUGH EXTENDS OVER MUCH OF THE SOUTHEAST... WITH TEMPERATURES PREDICTED TO BE BELOW NORMAL ACROSS THE SOUTH CENTRAL STATES AND GULF COAST AND WITH PRECIPITATION EXPECTED TO BE ABOVE NORMAL IN THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. ABOVE NORMAL HEIGHTS ARE FORECAST OVER ALASKA... CONSISTENT WITH A FORECAST OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES OVER THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE STATE AND BELOW AVERAGE PRECIPITATION IN THE PANHANDLE AND ALONG THE SOUTHERN COAST. TODAYS OFFICIAL 500-HPA BLEND CONSISTS OF 30 PERCENT OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8...20 PERCENT OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8...25 PERCENT OF TODAY'S CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8...AND 25 PERCENT OF TODAY'S EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 7. MODEL(S) OF THE DAY: 0Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD IS ABOVE AVERAGE TODAY... 4 ON A SCALE OF 1 TO 5... DUE TO GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG THE FORECAST MODEL SOLUTIONS. THE 6-10 DAY TEMPERATURE PROG IS BASED ON THE KLEIN AND ANALOG SPECIFICATIONS FROM THE OFFICIAL BLEND AND VARIOUS MODELS... THE CPC AUTO TEMPERATURE FORECAST... AND THE CDC CALIBRATED TEMPERATURE TOOL. THE 6-10 DAY PRECIPITATION PROG IS BASED ON THE ANALOG SPECIFICATIONS FROM THE OFFICIAL BLEND AND THE INDIVIDUAL FORECAST MODELS... THE CPC AUTO PRECIPITATION FORECAST... CALIBRATED PRECIPITATION FROM THE 0Z AND 06Z OPERATIONAL GFS RUN... AND THE CDC CALIBRATED PRECIPITATION TOOL. 8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR JUN 30 - JUL 06, 2006: FOR WEEK 2... TODAYS MODELS ARE IN RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE OVERALL 500-HPA FLOW PATTERN OVER THE NORTH AMERICAN CONTINENT. ALL MODELS PREDICT A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS TO EXTEND NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE CARIBBEAN ISLANDS TO THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC WELL OFF THE EAST COAST OF THE U.S. AND A SECOND RIDGE CENTER LOCATED OVER THE FOUR CORNERS STATES. THE STRENGTH OF THIS RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO BE FAIRLY TYPICAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR AS 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES ARE FORECAST TO BE CLOSE TO ZERO IN THESE AREAS. IN BETWEEN THE AREAS OF RIDGING OVER THE ATLANTIC AND THE SOUTHWEST CONUS... A WEAK TROUGH IS FORECAST TO BE LOCATED OVER THE GREAT LAKES AREA. THE PRESENCE OF THIS TROUGH MAY PROVIDE A FOCUSING MECHANISM FOR ABOVE MEDIAN PRECIPITATION OVER PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. RETURN FLOW AROUND THIS TROUGH WOULD ALSO BE FAVORABLE FOR ABOVE MEDIAN PRECIPITATION FOR PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. FURTHER TO THE NORTH AND WEST AS MODERATELY STRONG AREAS OF POSITIVE HEIGHT ANOMALIES ARE DEPICTED OVER THE NORTHWEST CONUS/SOUTHWESTERN CANADA AND OVER THE BERING SEA. THESE FORECAST ABOVE NORMAL HEIGHTS SHOULD SUPPORT HIGHER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR MOST OF THE NORTHWEST CONUS AND ALASKA. DRIER THAN NORMAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR MANY OF THESE SAME AREAS. THE OFFICIAL 8-14 DAY HEIGHT PROG CONSISTS OF 25 PERCENT OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11...25 PERCENT OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11...AND 50 PERCENT OF TODAY'S GFS SUPERENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11. FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD IS AVERAGE... 3 ON A SCALE OF 1 TO 5. THE 8-14 DAY TEMPERATURE PROG IS BASED ON THE KLEIN SPECIFICATIONS FROM THE OFFICIAL BLEND AND VARIOUS MODELS... ANALOGUES FROM THE OFFICIAL 500-HPA BLEND... THE CPC AUTO TEMPERATURE FORECAST... AND THE CDC CALIBRATED TEMPERATURE FORECAST. THE 8-14 DAY PRECIPITATION PROG IS BASED ON THE THE CPC AUTOMATED PRECIPITATION FORECAST... ANALOG SPECIFICATIONS FROM THE OFFICIAL BLEND...CALIBRATED PRECIPITATION FROM THE GFS OPERATIONAL AND ENSEMBLE RUNS... AND THE CDC CALIBRATED PRECIPITATION TOOL. FORECASTER: M. HALPERT / S. HANDEL NOTES: OPERATIONAL CHANGE: AS OF JULY 5 2005 SHADED MAPS HAVE REPLACED THE CONTOUR-ONLY MAPS ON THE CPC WEB SITE. THE CONTOURED MAPS ARE STILL AVAILABLE AT THEIR CURRENT FILE NAMES - SO DIRECT-LINKED USERS ARE NOT AFFECTED. AWIPS GRAPHICS ARE ALSO NOT AFFECTED BY THIS CHANGE. AUTOMATED FORECASTS ARE ISSUED ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. OTHERWISE - FORECASTS INCORPORATE FORECASTER INPUT. THE NOTATION FOR THE CATEGORICAL FORECAST INDICATED ON THE MAPS IS THE SAME AS THAT IN THE TABLES: A-ABOVE N-NEAR NORMAL B-BELOW IN THE SOUTHWEST AND OTHER CLIMATOLOGICALLY DRY REGIONS - THERE WILL BE A GREATER THAN 33.3% CHANCE OF NO PRECIPITATION AND OCCASIONALLY EVEN A NORMAL (I.E. MEDIAN) VALUE OF ZERO - ESPECIALLY DURING THE DRY SEASONS. IN SUCH CASES A FORECAST OF NEAR NORMAL IS EFFECTIVELY A FORECAST OF LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION. THE NARRATIVE DESCRIPTION OF THE FORECAST PATTERNS FOR TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION FOR BOTH THE 6-10 OR 8-14 DAY PERIODS HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED. THE STATE TABLES FOR BOTH THE 6-10 AND 8-14 DAY PERIODS ARE NOW CONTAINED IN THIS MESSAGE...AVAILABLE AS PMDMRD ON AWIPS. THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER USES 1971-2000 BASE PERIOD MEANS FOR TEMPERATURE...PRECIPITATION...AND 500-HPA HEIGHTS AS REFERENCE IN THE CLIMATE OUTLOOKS. THE NEXT SET OF LONG-LEAD MONTHLY AND SEASONAL OUTLOOKS WILL BE RELEASED ON JULY 20. AN UPDATED MONTHLY FORECAST FOR JULY WILL BE RELEASED ON JUNE 30. NEW NOTE EFFECTIVE MAR 16 2004: THE GLOSSARY FORMERLY FOUND AT THIS LOCATION WILL NO LONGER BE TRANSMITTED AS PART OF THIS MESSAGE. IF YOU WISH TO SEE THE DEFINITIONS OF TERMS USED IN THESE MESSAGES... PLEASE GO TO THE CPC WEB PAGE AT (USE LOWER CASE) HTTP://WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV AND FOLLOW THE APPROPRIATE LINKS. ANALOGS TO THE 5 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 3 DAYS AGO (D-3) FOR THE REGION FROM 20N to 70N LATITUDE AND 175E to 60W LONGITUDE INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES: 19940612 - 19830704 - 19880615 - 19540621 - 19930618 ANALOGS TO THE 7 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 4 DAYS AGO (D-4) FOR THE REGION FROM 20N to 70N LATITUDE AND 175E to 60W LONGITUDE INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES: 19940611 - 19830703 - 19880615 - 19870601 - 19540702 6 to 10 day Outlook Table OUTLOOK FOR JUN 28 - JUL 02, 2006 STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN WASHINGTON A B OREGON A B NRN CALIF A B SRN CALIF A N IDAHO A B NEVADA A B W MONTANA A B E MONTANA A B WYOMING A N UTAH A N ARIZONA A N COLORADO N N NEW MEXICO N N N DAKOTA A B S DAKOTA N N NEBRASKA N N KANSAS B A OKLAHOMA B A N TEXAS B A S TEXAS B A W TEXAS B A MINNESOTA N B IOWA N B MISSOURI N N ARKANSAS B N LOUISIANA B N WISCONSIN N B ILLINOIS N B MISSISSIPPI B N MICHIGAN N B INDIANA N B OHIO N N KENTUCKY N N TENNESSEE N N ALABAMA B N NEW YORK A A VERMONT A A NEW HAMP A A MAINE A A MASS A A CONN A A RHODE IS A A PENN N A NEW JERSEY A A W VIRGINIA N N MARYLAND N A DELAWARE N A VIRGINIA N A N CAROLINA N A S CAROLINA N A GEORGIA N N FL PNHDL B N FL PENIN B N AK N SLOPE N A AK ALEUTIAN N B AK WESTERN N A AK INT BSN N N AK S INT A B AK SO COAST A B AK PNHDL A B 8 to 14 day Outlook Table OUTLOOK FOR JUN 30 - JUL 06, 2006 STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN WASHINGTON A B OREGON A B NRN CALIF A B SRN CALIF A N IDAHO A B NEVADA A B W MONTANA A B E MONTANA A N WYOMING A N UTAH A N ARIZONA N N COLORADO N N NEW MEXICO N N N DAKOTA A B S DAKOTA N N NEBRASKA N N KANSAS N N OKLAHOMA B A N TEXAS B A S TEXAS N A W TEXAS N A MINNESOTA N B IOWA N N MISSOURI B N ARKANSAS B N LOUISIANA B N WISCONSIN N B ILLINOIS N N MISSISSIPPI B N MICHIGAN N B INDIANA N N OHIO N N KENTUCKY N N TENNESSEE B N ALABAMA B N NEW YORK N N VERMONT N N NEW HAMP N N MAINE N N MASS N N CONN N N RHODE IS N A PENN N N NEW JERSEY N A W VIRGINIA N N MARYLAND N A DELAWARE N A VIRGINIA N A N CAROLINA N A S CAROLINA B A GEORGIA B A FL PNHDL B A FL PENIN B N AK N SLOPE A A AK ALEUTIAN A B AK WESTERN A N AK INT BSN A N AK S INT A B AK SO COAST A B AK PNHDL A B LEGEND TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN A - ABOVE N - NEAR NORMAL A - ABOVE N - NEAR MEDIAN B - BELOW B - BELOW THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS PMDMRD. $$