PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSIONS FOR 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD 300 PM EDT MON JUN 19 2006 6-10 DAY OUTLOOK VALID FOR JUN 25 - 29 2006 TODAYS MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE EXPECTED 500-HPA CIRCULATION PATTERN OVER NORTH AMERICA FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD. THE MODELS DEPICT A RIDGE DOMINATING WESTERN NORTH AMERICA AND THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN ATLANTIC... WHILE TROUGHING EXTENDS FROM EASTERN CANADA SOUTHWARD INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. BELOW-NORMAL HEIGHTS EXTEND ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND THE GULF OF MEXICO. AT THE SURFACE... A MOIST FLOW OF AIR FROM THE GULF ALONG WITH A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONTAL SYSTEM SHOULD RESULT IN CONSIDERABLE RAIN FOR MUCH OF THE EAST AND THE SOUTH. TODAYS OFFICIAL 500-HPA BLEND CONSISTS OF 15 PERCENT OF TODAY'S OPERATIONAL 0Z GFS CENTERED ON DAY 8...20 PERCENT OF TODAY'S OPERATIONAL 6Z GFS CENTERED ON DAY 8...15 PERCENT OF TODAY'S OPERATIONAL ECMWF CENTERED ON DAY 7...25 PERCENT OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8...10 PERCENT OF TODAY'S CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8...AND 15 PERCENT OF TODAY'S EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 7. MODEL(S) OF THE DAY: 0Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD IS ABOVE AVERAGE TODAY... 4 ON A SCALE OF 1 TO 5... DUE TO RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG THE FORECAST MODEL SOLUTIONS. THE 6-10 DAY TEMPERATURE PROG IS BASED ON THE KLEIN... AND ANALOG SPECIFICATIONS FROM THE OFFICIAL BLEND AND VARIOUS MODELS... AND THE CPC AUTO TEMPERATURE FORECAST. THE 6-10 DAY PRECIPITATION PROG IS BASED ON THE ANALOG SPECIFICATIONS FROM THE OFFICIAL BLEND AND THE INDIVIDUAL FORECAST MODELS... THE CPC AUTO PRECIPITATION FORECAST... AND THE CALIBRATED PRECIPITATION FROM THE VARIOUS OPERATIONAL GFS RUNS. 8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR JUN 27 - JUL 03, 2006: FOR WEEK 2 THE VARIOUS MODELS REMAIN IN QUITE GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE 6-10 DAY PATTERN OF THE RIDGE OVER WESTERN NORTH AMERICA AND THE DOWNSTREAM TROUGH. THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS THAT THE TROUGH COULD BE MORE INTENSE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND THE GULF REGION THIS PERIOD, IMPLYING GREATER ODDS FOR WETNESS AND BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES. GIVEN THE DIFFICULTY OF FORECASTING RAINFALL TWO WEEKS OUT, THE PROBABILITIES ARE SOMEWHAT DAMPENED FROM THE 6-10 FORECAST FOR PRECIPITATION, BUT THE OVERALL PATTERN REMAINS SIMILAR. THE ANALOGS AND OTHER MODEL OUTPUT IMPLY THAT THE SOUTHWEST MONSOON RAINS MAY START BY THIS PERIOD, RESULTING IN WETNESS FOR NEW MEXICO AND INTO COLORADO AND ADJACENT TEXAS. THE OFFICIAL 8-14 DAY HEIGHT PROG CONSISTS OF 20 PERCENT OF TODAY'S OPERATIONAL 0Z GFS CENTERED ON DAY 11...30 PERCENT OF TODAY'S OPERATIONAL 6Z GFS CENTERED ON DAY 11...10 PERCENT OF TODAY'S DAVA CENTERED ON DAY 11...25 PERCENT OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11...AND 15 PERCENT OF TODAY'S CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11. FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD IS ABOVE AVERAGE... 4 ON A SCALE OF 1 TO 5 WITH GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT. THE 8-14 DAY TEMPERATURE PROG IS BASED ON THE KLEIN SPECIFICATIONS FROM THE OFFICIAL BLEND AND VARIOUS MODELS... THE CPC AUTO TEMPERATURE FORECAST... AND THE 850-HPA TEMPERATURES FROM THE 0Z OPERATIONAL GFS. THE 8-14 DAY PRECIPITATION PROG IS BASED ON THE ANALOG SPECIFICATIONS FROM THE OFFICIAL BLEND AND THE VARIOUS FORECAST MODELS AND THE CPC AND EMC CALIBRATED PRECIPITATION FROM THE GFS OPERATIONAL AND ENSEMBLE RUNS. FORECASTER: D. LE COMTE NOTES: OPERATIONAL CHANGE: AS OF JULY 5 2005 SHADED MAPS HAVE REPLACED THE CONTOUR-ONLY MAPS ON THE CPC WEB SITE. THE CONTOURED MAPS ARE STILL AVAILABLE AT THEIR CURRENT FILE NAMES - SO DIRECT-LINKED USERS ARE NOT AFFECTED. AWIPS GRAPHICS ARE ALSO NOT AFFECTED BY THIS CHANGE. AUTOMATED FORECASTS ARE ISSUED ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. OTHERWISE - FORECASTS INCORPORATE FORECASTER INPUT. THE NOTATION FOR THE CATEGORICAL FORECAST INDICATED ON THE MAPS IS THE SAME AS THAT IN THE TABLES: A-ABOVE N-NEAR NORMAL B-BELOW IN THE SOUTHWEST AND OTHER CLIMATOLOGICALLY DRY REGIONS - THERE WILL BE A GREATER THAN 33.3% CHANCE OF NO PRECIPITATION AND OCCASIONALLY EVEN A NORMAL (I.E. MEDIAN) VALUE OF ZERO - ESPECIALLY DURING THE DRY SEASONS. IN SUCH CASES A FORECAST OF NEAR NORMAL IS EFFECTIVELY A FORECAST OF LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION. THE NARRATIVE DESCRIPTION OF THE FORECAST PATTERNS FOR TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION FOR BOTH THE 6-10 OR 8-14 DAY PERIODS HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED. THE STATE TABLES FOR BOTH THE 6-10 AND 8-14 DAY PERIODS ARE NOW CONTAINED IN THIS MESSAGE...AVAILABLE AS PMDMRD ON AWIPS. THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER USES 1971-2000 BASE PERIOD MEANS FOR TEMPERATURE...PRECIPITATION...AND 500-HPA HEIGHTS AS REFERENCE IN THE CLIMATE OUTLOOKS. THE NEXT SET OF LONG-LEAD MONTHLY AND SEASONAL OUTLOOKS WILL BE RELEASED ON JULY 20. AN UPDATED MONTHLY FORECAST FOR JULY WILL BE RELEASED ON JUNE 30. NEW NOTE EFFECTIVE MAR 16 2004: THE GLOSSARY FORMERLY FOUND AT THIS LOCATION WILL NO LONGER BE TRANSMITTED AS PART OF THIS MESSAGE. IF YOU WISH TO SEE THE DEFINITIONS OF TERMS USED IN THESE MESSAGES... PLEASE GO TO THE CPC WEB PAGE AT (USE LOWER CASE) HTTP://WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV AND FOLLOW THE APPROPRIATE LINKS. ANALOGS TO THE 5 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 3 DAYS AGO (D-3) FOR THE REGION FROM 20N to 70N LATITUDE AND 175E to 60W LONGITUDE INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES: 19940610 - 19990619 - 19880614 - 19540702 - 19780530 ANALOGS TO THE 7 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 4 DAYS AGO (D-4) FOR THE REGION FROM 20N to 70N LATITUDE AND 175E to 60W LONGITUDE INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES: 19880613 - 19940609 - 19990619 - 19530614 - 19540702 6 to 10 day Outlook Table OUTLOOK FOR JUN 25 - 29, 2006 STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN WASHINGTON A B OREGON A B NRN CALIF A B SRN CALIF A B IDAHO A B NEVADA A B W MONTANA A B E MONTANA A B WYOMING A N UTAH A N ARIZONA A N COLORADO N A NEW MEXICO N A N DAKOTA A B S DAKOTA N B NEBRASKA N N KANSAS N N OKLAHOMA B N N TEXAS B N S TEXAS B N W TEXAS N A MINNESOTA N B IOWA N B MISSOURI B N ARKANSAS B N LOUISIANA B N WISCONSIN N B ILLINOIS N N MISSISSIPPI B A MICHIGAN N N INDIANA N N OHIO N A KENTUCKY B A TENNESSEE B A ALABAMA B A NEW YORK N A VERMONT N A NEW HAMP N A MAINE N N MASS N A CONN N A RHODE IS N A PENN N A NEW JERSEY N A W VIRGINIA N A MARYLAND N A DELAWARE N A VIRGINIA N A N CAROLINA N A S CAROLINA N A GEORGIA N A FL PNHDL B A FL PENIN N A AK N SLOPE A N AK ALEUTIAN N B AK WESTERN B B AK INT BSN A N AK S INT A B AK SO COAST A B AK PNHDL A A 8 to 14 day Outlook Table OUTLOOK FOR JUN 27 - JUL 03, 2006 STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN WASHINGTON A B OREGON A B NRN CALIF A B SRN CALIF A B IDAHO A B NEVADA A B W MONTANA A B E MONTANA A B WYOMING A N UTAH A N ARIZONA A N COLORADO N N NEW MEXICO N A N DAKOTA A B S DAKOTA N N NEBRASKA N N KANSAS B N OKLAHOMA B A N TEXAS B A S TEXAS B A W TEXAS B A MINNESOTA A B IOWA N B MISSOURI B N ARKANSAS B N LOUISIANA B A WISCONSIN N B ILLINOIS N N MISSISSIPPI B A MICHIGAN N N INDIANA N N OHIO N N KENTUCKY N N TENNESSEE B A ALABAMA B A NEW YORK N A VERMONT N A NEW HAMP N A MAINE N A MASS N A CONN N A RHODE IS N A PENN N A NEW JERSEY N A W VIRGINIA N A MARYLAND N A DELAWARE N A VIRGINIA N A N CAROLINA N A S CAROLINA N A GEORGIA N A FL PNHDL N A FL PENIN N N AK N SLOPE N N AK ALEUTIAN N B AK WESTERN N B AK INT BSN N N AK S INT A B AK SO COAST A B AK PNHDL N A LEGEND TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN A - ABOVE N - NEAR NORMAL A - ABOVE N - NEAR MEDIAN B - BELOW B - BELOW THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS PMDMRD. $$