PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSIONS FOR 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD 300 PM EDT WED JUN 14 2006 6-10 DAY OUTLOOK VALID FOR JUN 20 - 24 2006 TODAYS MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE EXPECTED 500-HPA CIRCULATION PATTERN OVER NORTH AMERICA FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD. THE MODELS DEPICT A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE DOMINATING MOST OF THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CONUS WHILE A ZONALLY ORIENTED JETSTREAM DOMINATES THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE COUNTRY. WEAKNESSES IN THE SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE ARE FORECAST EAST OF FLORIDA AND NEAR THE TEXAS GULF COAST. A WEAK TROUGH IS FORECAST ALONG OR JUST INLAND OF THE WEST COAST ALTHOUGH THE AMPLITUDE OF THIS TROUGH VARIES SOMEWHAT IN THE VARIOUS MODEL SOLUTIONS. THE EASTERN THIRD OF ALASKA IS EXPECTED TO BE DOMINATED BY A RIDGE WHILE THE WESTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE STATE IS FORECAST TO BE DOMINATED BY A TROUGH. THE 0Z AND 6Z OPERATIONAL GFS AND 12Z OPERATIONAL ECMWF ARE IN BASIC AGREEMENT WITH THE ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLUTIONS WITH ONLY MINOR DIFFERENCES INDICATED FOR THE AMPLITUDE AND PHASE OF INDIVIDUAL CIRCULATION FEATURES. 500-HPA HEIGHTS ARE GENERALLY FORECAST TO BE ABOVE NORMAL OVER MOST OF THE CONUS AND ALASKA ALTHOUGH NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL HEIGHTS ARE FORECAST FOR SOUTHERN FLORIDA... SOUTHERN TEXAS AND THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS. BELOW NORMAL HEIGHTS ARE INDICATED OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES BY THE OPERATIONAL 0Z AND 6Z GFS. THE MODELS GENERALLY SHOW GOOD CONTINUITY WITH RESPECT TO THEIR SOLUTIONS FROM YESTERDAY. THE ENSEMBLE SPAGHETTI DIAGRAMS GENERALLY SHOW LOW TO MODERATE SPREAD TODAY OVER THE CONUS AND MODERATE TO LARGE SPREAD AT HIGHER LATITUDES. THE LARGEST SPREAD IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH APPROACHING THE GULF OF ALASKA AND THE UPSTREAM RIDGE FORECAST OVER NORTHWESTERN CANADA. TEMPERATURES OVER MOST OF THE NATION ARE EXPECTED TO BE NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL AS HEIGHTS ACROSS MOST OF THE CONUS ARE EXPECTED TO BE ABOVE NORMAL. THE EXCEPTIONS ARE ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST WHERE ANOMALOUS EASTERLY FLOW MAY LEAD TO NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES... AND OVER SOUTHERN TEXAS NEAR THE WEAKNESS IN THE SUB-TROICAL RIDGE. PRECIPITATION ACROSS MOST OF THE CONUS SHOULD BE NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL DUE TO THE GENERAL AREA OF ABOVE NORMAL HEIGHTS ALTHOUGH PARTS OF SOUTHERN FLORIDA AND SOUTHERN TEXAS/THE SOUTHERN PLAINS MAY SEE ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION DUE TO AN INFLUX OF TROPICAL MOISTURE FROM THE ATLANTIC AND GULF OF MEXICO. PARTS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS MAY ALSO SEE ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION AS CONVECTIVE SYSTEMS MOVE ACROSS THE TOP OF THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE. TODAYS OFFICIAL 500-HPA BLEND CONSISTS OF 20 PERCENT OF TODAY'S OPERATIONAL 0Z GFS CENTERED ON DAY 8...10 PERCENT OF TODAY'S OPERATIONAL 6Z GFS CENTERED ON DAY 8...10 PERCENT OF TODAY'S OPERATIONAL ECMWF CENTERED ON DAY 7...35 PERCENT OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8...AND 25 PERCENT OF TODAY'S EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 7. MODEL(S) OF THE DAY: 0Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD IS ABOVE AVERAGE TODAY... 4 ON A SCALE OF 1 TO 5... DUE TO RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG THE FORECAST MODEL SOLUTIONS. THE 6-10 DAY TEMPERATURE PROG IS BASED ON THE KLEIN... NEURAL NET AND ANALOG SPECIFICATIONS FROM THE OFFICIAL BLEND AND VARIOUS MODELS... THE CPC AUTO TEMPERATURE FORECAST... THE CDC TEMPERATURE FORECAST TOOL... THE BIAS-CORRECTED 850-HPA TEMPERATURES FROM THE OPERATIONAL 0Z GFS...AND THE 2M UNCALIBRATED TEMPERATURES FROM THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN. THE 6-10 DAY PRECIPITATION PROG IS BASED ON THE NEURAL NET AND ANALOG SPECIFICATIONS FROM THE OFFICIAL BLEND AND THE INDIVIDUAL FORECAST MODELS... THE CPC AUTO PRECIPITATION FORECAST... THE CDC PRECIPITATION TOOL... CALIBRATED PRECIPITATION FROM THE 0Z OPERATIONAL GFS AND 0Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN AND THE CPC AND EMC CALIBRATED PRECIPITATION PERCENTAGES. 8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR JUN 22 - 28 2006: FOR WEEK 2 THE GFS SUPERENSEMBLE MEAN DEPICTS VERY LITTLE OVERALL CHANGE TO THE EXPECTED 500-HPA CIRCULATION PATTERN OVER NORTH AMERICA FROM THAT FORECAST FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD... ALTHOUGH HEIGHTS OVER THE SOUTHEAST CONUS ARE FORECAST TO BE SLIGHTLY LOWER DURING WEEK 2. A SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE... WITH WEAKNESSES NEAR THE TEXAS GULF COAST AND OVER FLORIDA... IS EXPECTED TO DOMINATE MOST OF THE SOUTHERN CONUS... A TROUGH IS FORECAST ALONG THE WEST COAST... WHILE A ZONALLY ORIENTED JETSTREAM IS EXPECTED ACROSS MOST OF THE NORTHERN TIER STATES. A BROAD FLAT TROUGH IS FORECAST TO DOMINATE MOST OF ALASKA. THE 0Z AND 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEANS ARE IN BASIC AGREEMENT WITH THE SUPERENSEMBLE MEAN. THE OPERATIONAL 0Z AND 6Z GFS ALSO AGREE FAIRLY WELL WITH THE SUPERENSEMBLE MEAN ALTHOUGH THERE ARE SOME SMALL DIFFERENCES ASSOCIATED WITH INDIVIDUAL SHORTWAVE FEATURES. HEIGHTS ARE GENERALLY FORECAST TO BE ABOVE NORMAL OVER MOST OF THE CONUS AND ALL OF ALASKA... EXCEPT NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL HEIGHTS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER OF THE NATION. THE MODELS SHOW GOOD CONTINUITY WITH RESPECT TO THEIR SOLUTIONS FROM YESTERDAY. THE ENSEMBLE SPAGHETTI DIAGRAMS GENERALLY SHOW MODERATE SPREAD OVER THE CONUS AND LARGE SPREAD OVER THE EAST PACIFIC... NORTHEAST ATLANTIC AND AT HIGHER LATITUDES. LITTLE OVERALL CHANGE TO THE TEMPERATURE/PRECIPITATION ANOMALY PATTERNS DEPICTED FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD IS EXPECTED DURING WEEK 2. THE OFFICIAL 8-14 DAY HEIGHT PROG CONSISTS OF 10 PERCENT OF TODAY'S OPERATIONAL 0Z GFS CENTERED ON DAY 11...15 PERCENT OF TODAY'S OPERATIONAL 6Z GFS CENTERED ON DAY 11...15 PERCENT OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11...20 PERCENT OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11...AND 40 PERCENT OF TODAY'S GFS SUPERENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11. FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD IS ABOUT AVERAGE... 3 ON A SCALE OF 1 TO 5 WITH GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT OFFSET BY RELATIVELY LARGE SPREAD AMONG THE ENSEMBLE MEMBERS. THE 8-14 DAY TEMPERATURE PROG IS BASED ON THE KLEIN, NEURAL NET AND ANALOG SPECIFICATIONS FROM THE OFFICIAL BLEND AND VARIOUS MODELS... THE CPC AUTO TEMPERATURE FORECAST... THE CDC TEMPERATURE FORECAST TOOL ... BIAS-CORRECTED 850-HPA TEMPERATURES FROM THE 0Z OPERATIONAL GFS AND THE UNCALIBRATED 2M TEMPERATURES FROM THE 0Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN. THE 8-14 DAY PRECIPITATION PROG IS BASED ON THE NEURAL NET AND ANALOG SPECIFICATIONS FROM THE OFFICIAL BLEND AND THE VARIOUS FORECAST MODELS... CPC AND EMC CALIBRATED PRECIPITATION FROM THE GFS ENSEMBLES... THE CDC PRECIPITATION TOOL... AND CALIBRATED PRECIPITATION FROM THE 6Z OPERATIONAL GFS AND 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN. FORECASTER: R. SCHECHTER NOTES: OPERATIONAL CHANGE: AS OF JULY 5 2005 SHADED MAPS HAVE REPLACED THE CONTOUR-ONLY MAPS ON THE CPC WEB SITE. THE CONTOURED MAPS ARE STILL AVAILABLE AT THEIR CURRENT FILE NAMES - SO DIRECT-LINKED USERS ARE NOT AFFECTED. AWIPS GRAPHICS ARE ALSO NOT AFFECTED BY THIS CHANGE. AUTOMATED FORECASTS ARE ISSUED ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. OTHERWISE - FORECASTS INCORPORATE FORECASTER INPUT. THE NOTATION FOR THE CATEGORICAL FORECAST INDICATED ON THE MAPS IS THE SAME AS THAT IN THE TABLES: A-ABOVE N-NEAR NORMAL B-BELOW IN THE SOUTHWEST AND OTHER CLIMATOLOGICALLY DRY REGIONS - THERE WILL BE A GREATER THAN 33.3% CHANCE OF NO PRECIPITATION AND OCCASIONALLY EVEN A NORMAL (I.E. MEDIAN) VALUE OF ZERO - ESPECIALLY DURING THE DRY SEASONS. IN SUCH CASES A FORECAST OF NEAR NORMAL IS EFFECTIVELY A FORECAST OF LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION. THE NARRATIVE DESCRIPTION OF THE FORECAST PATTERNS FOR TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION FOR BOTH THE 6-10 OR 8-14 DAY PERIODS HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED. THE STATE TABLES FOR BOTH THE 6-10 AND 8-14 DAY PERIODS ARE NOW CONTAINED IN THIS MESSAGE...AVAILABLE AS PMDMRD ON AWIPS. THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER USES 1971-2000 BASE PERIOD MEANS FOR TEMPERATURE...PRECIPITATION...AND 500-HPA HEIGHTS AS REFERENCE IN THE CLIMATE OUTLOOKS. THE NEXT SET OF LONG-LEAD MONTHLY AND SEASONAL OUTLOOKS WILL BE RELEASED ON JUNE 15. NEW NOTE EFFECTIVE MAR 16 2004: THE GLOSSARY FORMERLY FOUND AT THIS LOCATION WILL NO LONGER BE TRANSMITTED AS PART OF THIS MESSAGE. IF YOU WISH TO SEE THE DEFINITIONS OF TERMS USED IN THESE MESSAGES... PLEASE GO TO THE CPC WEB PAGE AT (USE LOWER CASE) HTTP://WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV AND FOLLOW THE APPROPRIATE LINKS. ANALOGS TO THE 5 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 3 DAYS AGO (D-3) FOR THE REGION FROM 20N to 70N LATITUDE AND 175E to 60W LONGITUDE INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES: 19550623 - 19980607 - 19770616 - 19890623 - 19910621 ANALOGS TO THE 7 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 4 DAYS AGO (D-4) FOR THE REGION FROM 20N to 70N LATITUDE AND 175E to 60W LONGITUDE INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES: 19550623 - 19890622 - 19770616 - 19870627 - 19980607 6 to 10 day Outlook Table OUTLOOK FOR JUN 20 - 24, 2006 STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN WASHINGTON N B OREGON N B NRN CALIF A B SRN CALIF A N IDAHO N B NEVADA A B W MONTANA N N E MONTANA N N WYOMING N N UTAH N N ARIZONA N N COLORADO A N NEW MEXICO A N N DAKOTA A N S DAKOTA A A NEBRASKA A A KANSAS A N OKLAHOMA N A N TEXAS N A S TEXAS B A W TEXAS N N MINNESOTA A A IOWA A N MISSOURI A A ARKANSAS A A LOUISIANA N N WISCONSIN A A ILLINOIS A N MISSISSIPPI A N MICHIGAN A N INDIANA A N OHIO A B KENTUCKY A N TENNESSEE A N ALABAMA A N NEW YORK A B VERMONT A B NEW HAMP A B MAINE A B MASS A N CONN A N RHODE IS A N PENN A B NEW JERSEY A N W VIRGINIA A B MARYLAND A N DELAWARE A N VIRGINIA A N N CAROLINA N N S CAROLINA N B GEORGIA N B FL PNHDL N B FL PENIN B N AK N SLOPE N N AK ALEUTIAN N B AK WESTERN N B AK INT BSN N N AK S INT A A AK SO COAST A A AK PNHDL B A 8 to 14 day Outlook Table OUTLOOK FOR JUN 22 - 28, 2006 STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN WASHINGTON A B OREGON A B NRN CALIF A B SRN CALIF N N IDAHO A B NEVADA A B W MONTANA A N E MONTANA A N WYOMING A N UTAH A N ARIZONA A N COLORADO A N NEW MEXICO N N N DAKOTA A A S DAKOTA A A NEBRASKA N A KANSAS N A OKLAHOMA N A N TEXAS B A S TEXAS B A W TEXAS N A MINNESOTA A N IOWA N N MISSOURI N N ARKANSAS N N LOUISIANA B A WISCONSIN A N ILLINOIS A B MISSISSIPPI N N MICHIGAN A B INDIANA A B OHIO A B KENTUCKY A B TENNESSEE A B ALABAMA N N NEW YORK A B VERMONT A N NEW HAMP A N MAINE A N MASS A N CONN A N RHODE IS A N PENN A B NEW JERSEY A N W VIRGINIA A B MARYLAND A N DELAWARE A N VIRGINIA A N N CAROLINA A N S CAROLINA N N GEORGIA N N FL PNHDL N N FL PENIN B N AK N SLOPE A A AK ALEUTIAN N N AK WESTERN B N AK INT BSN A N AK S INT N N AK SO COAST N A AK PNHDL B A LEGEND TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN A - ABOVE N - NEAR NORMAL A - ABOVE N - NEAR MEDIAN B - BELOW B - BELOW THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS PMDMRD. $$