PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSIONS FOR 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD 300 PM EDT THU JUN 08 2006 6-10 DAY OUTLOOK VALID FOR JUN 14 - 18 2006 AVAILABLE NUMERICAL MODELS ARE NOT IN AS GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE OVERALL 500-HPA FLOW PATTERN OVER NORTH AMERICA TODAY AS THEY WERE YESTERDAY. ADDITIONALLY, THE THREE MODELS THAT USUALLY HAVE THE BEST AC SCORES (GFS SUPERENSEMBLE MEAN, GFS 0Z ENSEMBLE MEAN, AND GFS 6Z ENSEMBLE MEAN) WERE ALL STILL UNAVAILABLE AT THE TIME THE OFFICIAL BLENDED HEIGHT FORECAST NEEDED TO BE RUN. A SPLIT FLOW IS DEPICTED BY TODAYS AVAILABLE ENSEMBLE MEANS AND HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS OVER WESTERN NORTH AMERICA, WITH AN AMPLIFIED RIDGE OVER NORTHWESTERN CANADA AND THE ASSOCICATED POSITIVE HEIGHT ANOMALY CENTER LOCATED JUST WEST OF HUDSON BAY. THE TROUGH UNDERCUTTING THE RIDGE IS A LITTLE STRONGER TODAY AND IS PREDICTED TO BE JUST INLAND OVER CALIFORNIA. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED FOR MUCH OF THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS UNDERNEATH POSITIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES, WHILE THE CENTRAL PLAINS IS LESS LIKELY TO BE WARM DUE TO EXPECTED HEAVY PRECIPITATION ALONG THE MEAN FRONTAL BOUNDARY NEAR THE MID-LATITUDE JET STREAM. FURTHER TO THE EAST... AN AMPLIFIED TROUGH IS INDICATED OVER NEW ENGLAND AND THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC STATES EXTENDING NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND NORTHERN ROCKIES EASTWARD AND SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS CENTAL PORTIONS OF THE GREAT PLAINS AND MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND LOWER OHIO VALLEY TO THE SOUTHEAST. IT IS LIKELY TO REMAIN WET OVER NEW ENGLAND AS WELL. THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS LOCATED OVER EXTREME NORTHERN MEXICO AND TEXAS IS SOMEWHAT SUPPRESSED TO THE SOUTH BY THE MID-LATITUDE JET PREDICTED ACROSS THE CENTRAL U.S. FURTHER TO THE WEST... A DRY REGIME IS FAVORED FOR MOST OF THE SOUTHWEST UNDERNEATH MEAN SOUTHWESTERLY MID-LEVEL FLOW, EVEN THOUGH A TROUGH IS LOCATED NOT FAR TO THE NORTH. MEANWHILE TO THE NORTH OF THE POLAR JET.. TODAY'S AVAILABLE MODELS FORECAST A WEAKENING TROUGH JUST SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIANS, WHILE A TROUGH OVER THE BERING SEA IS PREDICTED TO BE CLOSE TO CLIMATOLOGICAL INTENSITY. THIS WILL FAVOR A MODERATING TREND OVER WESTERN ALASKA, ALTHOUGH RIDGING OVER THE PANHANDLE AND INTERIOR OF EASTERN ALASKA FAVORS RELATIVE WARMTH THERE. ELSEWHERE, THE STRONGEST ANOMALIES PREDICTED OVER THE NORTHERN HEMISPHERE ARE A LARGE POSITIVE HEIGHT ANOMALY INDICATED OVER THE BALTIC SEA IN CONNECTION WITH AN AMPLIFIED RIDGE, AND A SHARP TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED NEGATIVE HEIGHT ANOMALY CENTER IMMEDIATELY DOWNSTREAM OVER WESTERN RUSSIA. TODAYS OFFICIAL 500-HPA BLEND CONSISTS OF 15 PERCENT OF TODAY'S OPERATIONAL 0Z GFS CENTERED ON DAY 8...15 PERCENT OF TODAY'S OPERATIONAL 6Z GFS CENTERED ON DAY 8...10 PERCENT OF TODAY'S OPERATIONAL ECMWF CENTERED ON DAY 7...15 PERCENT OF YESTERDAY'S 12Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 7...15 PERCENT OF YESTERDAY'S 18Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 7...AND 30 PERCENT OF TODAY'S EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 7. MODEL(S) OF THE DAY: ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD IS BELOW AVERAGE TODAY... 2 ON A SCALE OF 1 TO 5... DUE TO MEDIOCRE AGREEMENT AMONG THE AVAILABLE MODELS AND THE FACT THAT THE MODELS WHICH USUALLY PERFOM THE BEST WERE NOT AVAILABLE IN TIME FOR THE FORECAST. CONSISTENCY WITH YESTERDAY'S FORECAST INDICATIONS WAS REASONABLY GOOD, HOWEVER. THE 6-10 DAY TEMPERATURE PROG IS BASED ON THE KLEIN AND ANALOG SPECIFICATIONS FROM THE OFFICIAL BLEND AND VARIOUS MODELS... THE CPC AUTO TEMPERATURE FORECAST... THE CDC TEMPERATURE FORECAST TOOL, AND HPC'S PRELIMINARY DAY 6 AND 7 SURFACE FRONTS AND PRESSURES. NEURAL NET SPECIFICATIONS FROM THE OFFICIAL BLEND AND THE CPC CALIBRATED TEMPERATURES WERE ALSO CONSIDERED, ALTHOUGH THESE SEEMED SOMEWHAT TOO COOL IN SOME AREAS, AND THE NEURAL NET SEEMED TOO WARM OVER THE WEST IN VIEW OF THE PREDICTED TROUGH. THE 6-10 DAY PRECIPITATION PROG IS BASED ON THE NEURAL NET AND ANALOG SPECIFICATIONS FROM THE OFFICIAL BLEND AND THE INDIVIDUAL FORECAST MODELS... THE CPC AUTO PRECIPITATION FORECAST... EMC CALIBRATED PRECIPITATION PERCENTAGES FROM THE 0Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS... THE CDC PRECIPITAION FORECAST TOOL, AND HPC'S PRELIMINARY DAY 6 AND 7 SURFACE FRONTS AND PRESSURES. THE CPC CALIBRATED PRECIPITAITON FROM THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS WAS NOT AVAILABLE. 8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR JUN 16 - 22 2006: DURING THE WEEK 2 PERIOD... EVEN THOUGH THE AVAILABLE MODELS HAD SIMILARLY PHASED HEIGHT PATTERNS... CONFIDENCE IS SOMEWHAT LOW DUE TO VERY WEAK ENSEMBLE MEAN FIELDS WHICH INDICATED EXCEPTIONALLY LARGE SPREAD AMONG THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS. ALSO, THE THREE USUALLY BEST MODELS (GFS SUPERENSEMBLE MEAN, 0Z ENSEMBLE MEAN AND 6Z ENSEMBLE MEAN) WERE ALL UNAVAILABLE TODAY. NEVERTHELESS, THERE ARE SOME IDENTIFIABLE TRENDS IN THE FORECAST 500-HPA FLOW PATTERN ACROSS THE NORTH AMERICAN CONTINENT. THE MEAN POSITION OF THE MID-LATITUDE 500-HPA JET IN THIS ZONAL PATTERN IS FORECAST TO STRETCH ACROSS THE NORTH-CENTRAL TIER OF THE CONUS. THE TROUGH NEAR THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST IS PREDICTED TO MOVE FURTHER INLAND TO THE GREAT BASIN, THE RIDGE IS INDICATED TO PROGRESS FROM THE GREAT PLAINS TO THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND WESTERN GREAT LAKES, AND THE TROUGH OVER THE NORTHEAST IS EXPECTED TO MOVE JUST OFF THE COAST AND WEAKEN. SOUTH OF THE MID LATITUDE JET...THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS IS EXPECTED TO BE LOCATED IN A SIMILAR POSITION TO THAT DEPICTED FOR THE 6 TO 10 DAY PERIOD, ALTHOUGH WEAKER OVER THE SOUTHWEST AND SLIGHTLY STRONGER OVER THE SOUTHEAST. THEREFORE... WARMER THAN NORMAL CONDITIONS ARE STILL FAVORED FOR PARTS OF THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. AND TEXAS... EXTENDING WESTWARD TO SOUTHEASTERN ARIZONA NEAR THE MEXICAN BORDER. NORMALLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE FAVORED ONLY OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND ALSO DRIER THAN NORMAL WEATHER COULD OCCUR OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES AREA. THE TROUGH OVER THE BERING SEA IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN SOMEWHAT... WHILE 500-HPA HEIGHTS ARE PREDICTED TO RISE OVER ALASKA AS THE POSITIVE ANOMALY CENTER OVER CANADA IS EXPECTED TO RETROGRADE FROM THE WESTERN SHORE OF HUDSON BAY TO THE VICINITY OF THE MACKENZIE RIVER IN THE NORTHWEST TERRITORIES. THE OFFICIAL 8-14 DAY HEIGHT PROG CONSISTS OF 10 PERCENT OF TODAY'S EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 7...20 PERCENT OF TODAY'S OPERATIONAL 0Z GFS CENTERED ON DAY 11...20 PERCENT OF TODAY'S OPERATIONAL 6Z GFS CENTERED ON DAY 11...10 PERCENT OF YESTERDAY'S OPERATIONAL 18Z GFS CENTERED ON DAY 10...20 PERCENT OF YESTERDAY'S 12Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 10...AND 20 PERCENT OF YESTERDAY'S 18Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 10. FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD IS BELOW AVERAGE... 2 ON A SCALE OF 1 TO 5... DUE TO A RATHER LARGE SPREAD AMONG THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS... DIFFERENCES AMONG THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEANS AND THE OPERATIONAL FORECASTS... RECENT DECLINES IN THE MODEL AC SCORES AS WE GO INTO THE SPRING-SUMMER TRASSITION TIME... AND THE FACT THAT THE THREE MODELS WHICH USUALLY PERFORM THE BEST WERE ALL MISSING. INDICATED FORECAST TRENDS WERE REASONABLY CONSISTENT WITH TODAY'S 6-10 DAY FORECAST AND YESTERDAY'S WEEK 2 FORECAST, HOWEVER. THE 8-14 DAY TEMPERATURE PROG IS BASED ON THE KLEIN, NEURAL NET AND ANALOG SPECIFICATIONS FROM THE OFFICIAL BLEND AND VARIOUS MODELS... THE CPC AUTO TEMPERATURE FORECAST... AND THE CDC TERMPERATURE FORECAST TOOL. THE 8-14 DAY PRECIPITATION PROG IS BASED ON THE NEURAL NET AND ANALOG SPECIFICATIONS FROM THE OFFICIAL BLEND AND THE INDIVIDUAL FORECAST MODELS... EMC CALIBRATED PRECIPITATION FROM THE VARIOUS GFS MODEL RUNS... AND THE CDC PRECIPITATION FORECAST TOOL. THE CPC CALIBRATED PRECIPITATION FROM THE GFS ENESMBLE MEMBERS WAS NOT AVAILABLE. FORECASTER: A.J. WAGNER NOTES: OPERATIONAL CHANGE: AS OF JULY 5 2005 SHADED MAPS HAVE REPLACED THE CONTOUR-ONLY MAPS ON THE CPC WEB SITE. THE CONTOURED MAPS ARE STILL AVAILABLE AT THEIR CURRENT FILE NAMES - SO DIRECT-LINKED USERS ARE NOT AFFECTED. AWIPS GRAPHICS ARE ALSO NOT AFFECTED BY THIS CHANGE. AUTOMATED FORECASTS ARE ISSUED ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. OTHERWISE - FORECASTS INCORPORATE FORECASTER INPUT. THE NOTATION FOR THE CATEGORICAL FORECAST INDICATED ON THE MAPS IS THE SAME AS THAT IN THE TABLES: A-ABOVE N-NEAR NORMAL B-BELOW IN THE SOUTHWEST AND OTHER CLIMATOLOGICALLY DRY REGIONS - THERE WILL BE A GREATER THAN 33.3% CHANCE OF NO PRECIPITATION AND OCCASIONALLY EVEN A NORMAL (I.E. MEDIAN) VALUE OF ZERO - ESPECIALLY DURING THE DRY SEASONS. IN SUCH CASES A FORECAST OF NEAR NORMAL IS EFFECTIVELY A FORECAST OF LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION. THE NARRATIVE DESCRIPTION OF THE FORECAST PATTERNS FOR TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION FOR BOTH THE 6-10 OR 8-14 DAY PERIODS HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED. THE STATE TABLES FOR BOTH THE 6-10 AND 8-14 DAY PERIODS ARE NOW CONTAINED IN THIS MESSAGE...AVAILABLE AS PMDMRD ON AWIPS. THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER USES 1971-2000 BASE PERIOD MEANS FOR TEMPERATURE...PRECIPITATION...AND 500-HPA HEIGHTS AS REFERENCE IN THE CLIMATE OUTLOOKS. THE NEXT SET OF LONG-LEAD MONTHLY AND SEASONAL OUTLOOKS WILL BE RELEASED ON JUNE 15. NEW NOTE EFFECTIVE MAR 16 2004: THE GLOSSARY FORMERLY FOUND AT THIS LOCATION WILL NO LONGER BE TRANSMITTED AS PART OF THIS MESSAGE. IF YOU WISH TO SEE THE DEFINITIONS OF TERMS USED IN THESE MESSAGES... PLEASE GO TO THE CPC WEB PAGE AT (USE LOWER CASE) HTTP://WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV AND FOLLOW THE APPROPRIATE LINKS. ANALOGS TO THE 5 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 3 DAYS AGO (D-3) FOR THE REGION FROM 20N to 70N LATITUDE AND 175E to 60W LONGITUDE INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES: 19680530 - 19970601 - 19860525 - 19790526 - 19560610 ANALOGS TO THE 7 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 4 DAYS AGO (D-4) FOR THE REGION FROM 20N to 70N LATITUDE AND 175E to 60W LONGITUDE INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES: 19860526 - 19970601 - 19680530 - 19560610 - 19960602 6 to 10 day Outlook Table OUTLOOK FOR JUN 14 - 18, 2006 STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN WASHINGTON B A OREGON B A NRN CALIF B A SRN CALIF B N IDAHO N A NEVADA N A W MONTANA N A E MONTANA A A WYOMING N N UTAH N N ARIZONA N B COLORADO N N NEW MEXICO A B N DAKOTA A N S DAKOTA N N NEBRASKA N A KANSAS A A OKLAHOMA A N N TEXAS A N S TEXAS A B W TEXAS A B MINNESOTA N B IOWA N N MISSOURI N A ARKANSAS A A LOUISIANA A N WISCONSIN B B ILLINOIS B A MISSISSIPPI A N MICHIGAN B N INDIANA B A OHIO B N KENTUCKY B A TENNESSEE N A ALABAMA A A NEW YORK B N VERMONT B A NEW HAMP B A MAINE B N MASS B A CONN B A RHODE IS B A PENN B N NEW JERSEY B N W VIRGINIA B A MARYLAND B N DELAWARE B N VIRGINIA B A N CAROLINA N A S CAROLINA N A GEORGIA N A FL PNHDL N N FL PENIN N N AK N SLOPE A B AK ALEUTIAN B A AK WESTERN N N AK INT BSN A B AK S INT N N AK SO COAST B A AK PNHDL A B 8 to 14 day Outlook Table OUTLOOK FOR JUN 16 - 22, 2006 STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN WASHINGTON B A OREGON B A NRN CALIF B A SRN CALIF B N IDAHO B A NEVADA B A W MONTANA B A E MONTANA N A WYOMING B A UTAH B A ARIZONA N B COLORADO B N NEW MEXICO N N N DAKOTA A A S DAKOTA A A NEBRASKA N N KANSAS N B OKLAHOMA N B N TEXAS N B S TEXAS A B W TEXAS N B MINNESOTA A N IOWA A N MISSOURI N N ARKANSAS N B LOUISIANA A B WISCONSIN A N ILLINOIS N N MISSISSIPPI A B MICHIGAN N B INDIANA N N OHIO N N KENTUCKY N N TENNESSEE N N ALABAMA A B NEW YORK N N VERMONT N B NEW HAMP N B MAINE N B MASS N N CONN N N RHODE IS B N PENN N N NEW JERSEY N N W VIRGINIA N N MARYLAND B N DELAWARE B N VIRGINIA N N N CAROLINA B N S CAROLINA B N GEORGIA N N FL PNHDL N N FL PENIN N N AK N SLOPE A B AK ALEUTIAN N A AK WESTERN A N AK INT BSN A B AK S INT A B AK SO COAST A B AK PNHDL A B LEGEND TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN A - ABOVE N - NEAR NORMAL A - ABOVE N - NEAR MEDIAN B - BELOW B - BELOW THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS PMDMRD. $$