PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSIONS FOR 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD 300 PM EDT TUE JUN 06 2006 6-10 DAY OUTLOOK VALID FOR JUN 12 - 16 2006 TODAYS NUMERICAL MODELS ARE ONLY IN FAIR AGREEMENT ON THE OVERALL 500-HPA FLOW PATTERN OVER NORTH AMERICA. WHILE AGREEMENT AMONG THE ENSEMBLE MEANS IS RELATIVELY GOOD... THERE IS LARGE SPREAD AMONG THE INDIVIDUAL ENSEMBLE MEMBERS WHICH IS INDICATIVE OF A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST. A SPLIT-FLOW IS DEPICTED BY TODAYS AVAILABLE ENSEMBLE MEANS OVER WESTERN NORTH AMERICA WITH A MODERATE AMPLITUDE POLAR JET RIDGE OVER WESTERN CANADA AND CORRESPONDING MID LATITUDE TROUGHING ALONG OR JUST OFF THE NORTHWEST COAST OF THE CONUS. BETWEEN THE POLAR JET RIDGE AND MID LATITUDE JET TROUGH...ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED FOR MUCH OF THE NORTHWEST CONUS UNDERNEATH POSTIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES. FURTHER TO THE EAST...THE POLAR AND MID-LATITUDE JETS CONVERGE OVER CENTRAL NORTH AMERICA WITH WEAK TROUGHING AND ASSOCIATED NEGATIVE HEIGHT ANOMALIES DEPICTED FURTHER DOWNSTREAM OF THAT OVER THE NORTHEASTERN QUADRANT OF THE CONUS. ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED FOR PORTIONS OF THE OHIO VALLEY AND NORTHEAST ALONG THE BOUNDARY SEPARATING RELATIVELY COOL AIR TO THE NORTH OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHERN PLAINS AND WARMER AIR LOCATED OVER THE SOUTHEAST CONUS. TO THE SOUTH OF THE MID-LATITUDE JET...THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN FORECASTING A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS TO EXTEND FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN WESTWARD TO THE NORTHERN CARIBBEAN ISLANDS...AND ANOTHER RIDGE AXIS LOCATED OVER EXTREME NORTHERN MEXICO. SOUTHERLY FLOW AROUND THE RIDGE AXIS OVER THE CARIBBEAN FAVORS ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST. FURTHER TO THE WEST...A DRY REGIME IS FAVORED FOR THE DESERT SOUTHWEST UNDERNEATH MEAN SOUTHWESTERLY MID-LEVEL FLOW. MEANWHILE TO THE NORTH OF THE POLAR JET...ALL OF TODAYS AVAILABLE MODELS HAVE A FAIRLY STRONG CLOSED-LOW CENTERED NEAR WESTERN ALASKA FAVORING COOL AND WET CONDITIONS. TODAYS OFFICIAL 500-HPA BLEND CONSISTS OF 5 PERCENT OF TODAY'S OPERATIONAL 6Z GFS CENTERED ON DAY 8...5 PERCENT OF TODAY'S OPERATIONAL ECMWF CENTERED ON DAY 7...15 PERCENT OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8...15 PERCENT OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8...15 PERCENT OF TODAY'S GFS SUPERENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8...AND 45 PERCENT OF TODAY'S EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 7. MODEL(S) OF THE DAY: ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD IS BELOW AVERAGE TODAY... 2 ON A SCALE OF 1 TO 5... DUE TO LARGE SPREAD AMONG THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS. THE 6-10 DAY TEMPERATURE PROG IS BASED ON THE KLEIN...AND ANALOG SPECIFICATIONS FROM THE OFFICIAL BLEND AND VARIOUS MODELS... THE CPC AUTO TEMPERATURE FORECAST...THE KLEIN PROBABILITIES FROM THE ECMWF ENSEMBLES... HPC'S PRELIMINARY DAY 6 AND 7 SURFACE FRONTS AND PRESSURES...AND CONSIDERATION OF LOCAL NWS FORECAST DISCUSSIONS. THE 6-10 DAY PRECIPITATION PROG IS BASED ON THE ANALOG SPECIFICATIONS FROM THE OFFICIAL BLEND AND THE INDIVIDUAL FORECAST MODELS... THE CPC AUTO PRECIPITATION FORECAST... EMC CALIBRATED PRECIPITATION PERCENTAGES FROM THE 0Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS... HPC'S PRELIMINARY DAY 6 AND 7 SURFACE FRONTS AND PRESSURES...AND CONSIDERATION OF LOCAL NWS FORECAST DISCUSSIONS. 8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR JUN 14 - 20 2006: DURING THE WEEK 2 PERIOD... CONFIDENCE IS VERY LOW DUE TO EXCEPTIONALLY LARGE SPREAD AMONG THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS. AS A RESULT OF THE LARGE VARIATIONS BETWEEN THE INDIVIDUAL ENSEMBLES...THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEANS DEPICT A VERY SMOOTH ZONAL 500-HPA FLOW PATTERN ACROSS THE NORTH AMERICAN CONTINENT. THE MEAN POSITION OF THE MID LEVEL 500-HPA JET IN THIS ZONAL PATTERN IS FORECAST TO STRETCH ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE CONUS. THE STRONGEST SIGNAL IN THE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALY PATTERN IS A REGION OF WEAK NEGATIVE ANOMALIES OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST. THESE NEGATIVE ANOMALIES IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE FORECAST LOCATION OF THE MEAN MID-LATITUDE JET IN THE VICINITY GENERALLY FAVOR COOLER AND WETTER THAN NORMAL CONDITIONS. ALONG AND TO THE NORTH OF THIS JET...BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE GENERALLY FAVORED ACROSS MUCH OF THE NORTHERN TIER OF STATES. SOUTH OF THE MID LATITUDE JET...THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS IS EXPECTED TO BE LOCATED IN SIMILAR POSITIONS TO THAT DEPICTED FOR THE 6 TO 10 DAY PERIOD. ONE RIDGE AXIS IS FORECAST TO BE LOCATED OVER THE NORTHERN CARIBBEAN WHILE ANOTHER IS EXPECTED TO BE LOCATED OVER NORTHERN MEXICO. THEREFORE...WARMER THAN NORMAL CONDITIONS WILL STILL BE FAVORED FOR THE SOUTHEAST U.S. WHILE DRY CONDITIONS ARE FAVORED OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. OVER ALASKA...A TROUGH IS FORECAST TO BE LOCATED NORTH OF THE ALEUTANS...FAVORING COOLER AND WETTER THAN NORMAL CONDITIONS FOR MUCH OF THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE STATE. THE OFFICIAL 8-14 DAY HEIGHT PROG CONSISTS OF 25 PERCENT OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11...25 PERCENT OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11...AND 50 PERCENT OF TODAY'S GFS SUPERENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11. FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD IS MUCH BELOW AVERAGE... 1 ON A SCALE OF 1 TO 5... DUE TO VERY LARGE SPREAD AMONG THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS. THE 8-14 DAY TEMPERATURE PROG IS BASED ON THE KLEIN AND ANALOG SPECIFICATIONS FROM THE OFFICIAL BLEND AND VARIOUS MODELS... THE CPC AUTO TEMPERATURE FORECAST... AMD THE KLEIN PROBABILITIES FROM THE GFS ENSEMBLES. THE 8-14 DAY PRECIPITATION PROG IS BASED ON THE ANALOG SPECIFICATIONS FROM THE OFFICIAL BLEND AND THE INDIVIDUAL FORECAST MODELS... AND CPC AND EMC CALIBRATED PRECIPITATION FROM THE VARIOUS GFS MODEL RUNS. FORECASTER: S. HANDEL NOTES: OPERATIONAL CHANGE: AS OF JULY 5 2005 SHADED MAPS HAVE REPLACED THE CONTOUR-ONLY MAPS ON THE CPC WEB SITE. THE CONTOURED MAPS ARE STILL AVAILABLE AT THEIR CURRENT FILE NAMES - SO DIRECT-LINKED USERS ARE NOT AFFECTED. AWIPS GRAPHICS ARE ALSO NOT AFFECTED BY THIS CHANGE. AUTOMATED FORECASTS ARE ISSUED ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. OTHERWISE - FORECASTS INCORPORATE FORECASTER INPUT. THE NOTATION FOR THE CATEGORICAL FORECAST INDICATED ON THE MAPS IS THE SAME AS THAT IN THE TABLES: A-ABOVE N-NEAR NORMAL B-BELOW IN THE SOUTHWEST AND OTHER CLIMATOLOGICALLY DRY REGIONS - THERE WILL BE A GREATER THAN 33.3% CHANCE OF NO PRECIPITATION AND OCCASIONALLY EVEN A NORMAL (I.E. MEDIAN) VALUE OF ZERO - ESPECIALLY DURING THE DRY SEASONS. IN SUCH CASES A FORECAST OF NEAR NORMAL IS EFFECTIVELY A FORECAST OF LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION. THE NARRATIVE DESCRIPTION OF THE FORECAST PATTERNS FOR TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION FOR BOTH THE 6-10 OR 8-14 DAY PERIODS HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED. THE STATE TABLES FOR BOTH THE 6-10 AND 8-14 DAY PERIODS ARE NOW CONTAINED IN THIS MESSAGE...AVAILABLE AS PMDMRD ON AWIPS. THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER USES 1971-2000 BASE PERIOD MEANS FOR TEMPERATURE...PRECIPITATION...AND 500-HPA HEIGHTS AS REFERENCE IN THE CLIMATE OUTLOOKS. THE NEXT SET OF LONG-LEAD MONTHLY AND SEASONAL OUTLOOKS WILL BE RELEASED ON JUNE 15. AN UPDATED MONTHLY OUTLOOK FOR JUNE WILL BE ISSUED MAY 31. NEW NOTE EFFECTIVE MAR 16 2004: THE GLOSSARY FORMERLY FOUND AT THIS LOCATION WILL NO LONGER BE TRANSMITTED AS PART OF THIS MESSAGE. IF YOU WISH TO SEE THE DEFINITIONS OF TERMS USED IN THESE MESSAGES... PLEASE GO TO THE CPC WEB PAGE AT (USE LOWER CASE) HTTP://WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV AND FOLLOW THE APPROPRIATE LINKS. ANALOGS TO THE 5 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 3 DAYS AGO (D-3) FOR THE REGION FROM 20N to 70N LATITUDE AND 175E to 60W LONGITUDE INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES: 19860526 - 19970531 - 19960602 - 19940619 - 19560610 ANALOGS TO THE 7 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 4 DAYS AGO (D-4) FOR THE REGION FROM 20N to 70N LATITUDE AND 175E to 60W LONGITUDE INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES: 19940618 - 19960602 - 19860526 - 19590611 - 19920520 6 to 10 day Outlook Table OUTLOOK FOR JUN 12 - 16, 2006 STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN WASHINGTON A B OREGON A B NRN CALIF A N SRN CALIF N N IDAHO A N NEVADA N N W MONTANA A N E MONTANA N B WYOMING N N UTAH N N ARIZONA A N COLORADO N N NEW MEXICO A N N DAKOTA B B S DAKOTA B B NEBRASKA B N KANSAS B N OKLAHOMA N N N TEXAS N N S TEXAS A N W TEXAS N N MINNESOTA B N IOWA B A MISSOURI B A ARKANSAS N A LOUISIANA A N WISCONSIN B N ILLINOIS B A MISSISSIPPI A N MICHIGAN B A INDIANA B A OHIO B A KENTUCKY N A TENNESSEE N N ALABAMA A N NEW YORK B A VERMONT B A NEW HAMP B A MAINE B A MASS B A CONN N N RHODE IS N N PENN N A NEW JERSEY N N W VIRGINIA N N MARYLAND N N DELAWARE N N VIRGINIA N N N CAROLINA A N S CAROLINA A N GEORGIA A N FL PNHDL A B FL PENIN A B AK N SLOPE A N AK ALEUTIAN B A AK WESTERN B A AK INT BSN N N AK S INT B N AK SO COAST B N AK PNHDL A B 8 to 14 day Outlook Table OUTLOOK FOR JUN 14 - 20, 2006 STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN WASHINGTON N N OREGON N N NRN CALIF N N SRN CALIF N N IDAHO N N NEVADA N N W MONTANA N N E MONTANA B N WYOMING N N UTAH N N ARIZONA N N COLORADO N N NEW MEXICO N B N DAKOTA B N S DAKOTA B N NEBRASKA B N KANSAS N N OKLAHOMA N N N TEXAS N B S TEXAS A B W TEXAS N B MINNESOTA B N IOWA B N MISSOURI N A ARKANSAS N N LOUISIANA A N WISCONSIN B N ILLINOIS B A MISSISSIPPI N N MICHIGAN B A INDIANA B A OHIO N A KENTUCKY N A TENNESSEE N N ALABAMA A N NEW YORK B A VERMONT B A NEW HAMP B A MAINE B A MASS N A CONN N A RHODE IS N N PENN N A NEW JERSEY N N W VIRGINIA N A MARYLAND N N DELAWARE N N VIRGINIA N N N CAROLINA A N S CAROLINA A N GEORGIA A N FL PNHDL A B FL PENIN A B AK N SLOPE N N AK ALEUTIAN B A AK WESTERN B A AK INT BSN N N AK S INT B N AK SO COAST B N AK PNHDL N B LEGEND TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN A - ABOVE N - NEAR NORMAL A - ABOVE N - NEAR MEDIAN B - BELOW B - BELOW THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS PMDMRD. $$