PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSIONS FOR 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD 300 PM EDT WED MAY 31 2006 6-10 DAY OUTLOOK VALID FOR JUN 06 - 10 2006 TODAYS AVAILABLE ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLUTIONS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE EXPECTED 500-HPA CIRCULATION PATTERN OVER NORTH AMERICA. A RELATIVELY DEEP TROUGH IS FORECAST OVER THE EASTERN CONUS... AN AMPLIFIED RIDGE IS FORECAST TO BE CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHWEST CONUS AND A TROUGH IS FORECAST TO BE APPROACHING THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST. TROUGHS ARE FORECAST OVER SOUTHEAST ALASKA AND THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS WHILE A WEAK RIDGE IS FORECAST TO BUILD OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN PORTION OF THE STATE. THE CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN AND 0Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN WERE NOT AVAILABLE TODAY. THE 0Z AND 6Z GFS OPERATIONAL RUNS ARE MORE AMPLIFIED AND LESS PROGRESSIVE THAN THE ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLUIONS... WHILE THE 12Z OPERATIONAL ECMWF IS MUCH STRONGER WITH THE SOUTHERN END OF THE EASTERN U.S. TROUGH... CLOSING IT OFF OVER THE SOUTHEAST. 500-HPA HEIGHTS ARE GENERALLY FORECAST TO BE BELOW NORMAL OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE CONUS...THE GULF COAST AND NORTHERN ALASKA WHILE ABOVE NORMAL HEIGHTS ARE ANTICIPATED FOR THE WESTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE CONUS AND THE REMAINDER OF ALASKA. THE ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLUTIONS SHOW VERY GOOD CONTINUITY WITH RESPECT TO YESTERDAYS SOLUTIONS WHILE THE 0Z AND 6Z OPERATIONAL GFS AND 12Z OPERATIONAL ECMWF ARE MUCH SLOWER TODAY WITH THE PROGRESSION OF THE EASTERN TROUGH AND UPSTREAM RIDGE. THE PNA INDEX WHICH RECENTLY HAS BEEN NEGATIVE IS FORECAST TO TREND TOWARDS ZERO BY DAY 7 AND REMAIN NEAR ZERO THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK 2 PERIOD. THE NAO INDEX HAS RECENTLY BEEN NEAR ZERO AND IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN NEAR ZERO OR BE WEAKLY NEGATIVE THROUGH DAY 14. THE GFS ENSEMBLE SPAGHETTI DIAGRAMS SHOW LOW SPREAD IN THE SOUTHERN STREAM OVER THE CONUS WITH THE LARGEST UNCERTAINTY INDICATED WITH REGARD TO THE PROGRESSION AND AMPLITUDE OF THE EASTERN TROUGH. LARGE SPREAD IS INDICATED AMONG THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS FOR THE NORTHERN STREAM OVER NORTH AMERICA. THE ECMWF ENSEMBLE SPAGHETTI DIAGRAMS INDICATE LOW SPREAD OVER THE CONUS ALTHOUGH MODERATE SPREAD IS INDICATED FOR THE AMPLITUDE OF THE TROUGH FORECAST OVER THE EAST. THE TROUGH FORECAST OVER THE EAST AND ITS ASSOCIATED AREA OF BELOW NORMAL HEIGHTS IS EXPECTED TO LEAD TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ALONG THE EAST COAST... OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS WHILE THE RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHWEST IS EXPECTED TO CAUSE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CONUS. THE TROUGH OVER NORTHWESTERN ALASKA IS EXPECTED TO LEAD TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR MUCH OF NORTHERN ALASKA WHILE THE RIDGE OVER THE ALEUTIANS SHOULD CAUSE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THERE AND ACROSS SOUTHERN ALASKA. THE SOUTHWESTERN RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO KEEP MUCH OF THE COUNTRY IN NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION. ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE OVER NORTHEASTERN NEW ENGLAND AS A TROUGH LIFTS OUT FROM THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS. MUCH OF SOUTHERN ALASKA IS EXPECTED TO BE DRY AS A RIDGE IS FORECAST TO BUILD OVER THE REGION WHILE ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE OVER THE ALEUTIANS AND NORTHWEST ALASKA AS A TROUGH APPROACHES THOSE REGIONS. TODAYS OFFICIAL 500-HPA BLEND CONSISTS OF 10 PERCENT OF TODAY'S OPERATIONAL 0Z GFS CENTERED ON DAY 8...10 PERCENT OF TODAY'S OPERATIONAL 6Z GFS CENTERED ON DAY 8...5 PERCENT OF TODAY'S OPERATIONAL ECMWF CENTERED ON DAY 7...20 PERCENT OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8...30 PERCENT OF TODAY'S GFS SUPERENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8...AND 25 PERCENT OF TODAY'S EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 7. MODEL(S) OF THE DAY: GFS SUPERENSEMBLE MEAN FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD IS ABOVE AVERAGE TODAY... 4 ON A SCALE OF 1 TO 5... DUE TO FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG THE MODELS AND THE FORECAST TOOLS DERIVED FROM THEM. THE 6-10 DAY TEMPERATURE PROG IS BASED ON THE KLEIN... NEURAL NET... AND ANALOG SPECIFICATIONS FROM THE OFFICIAL BLEND... THE CPC AUTO TEMPERATURE FORECAST... THE CDC REFORECAST TEMPERATURE TOOL... THE 2-METER CALIBRATED TEMPERATURE FORECAST FROM THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN... 850-HPA BIAS-CORRECTED TEMPERATURES FROM THE 0Z OPERATIONAL GFS... AND THE KLEIN AND NEURAL NET PROBABILITIES FROM THE GFS AND ECMWF ENSEMBLES. THE 6-10 DAY PRECIPITATION PROG IS BASED ON THE ANALOG AND NEURAL NET SPECIFICATIONS FROM THE OFFICIAL BLEND AND THE INDIVIDUAL FORECAST MODELS... THE CPC AUTO PRECIPITATION FORECAST... CDC PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES FROM THE REFORECAST TOOL... CPC AND EMC CALIBRATED PRECIPITATION PERCENTAGES FROM THE 0Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS AND CALIBRATED PRECIPITATION FROM THE 0Z OPERATIONAL GFS AND 0Z GFS ENESMBLE MEAN. 8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR JUN 08 - 14 2006: FOR WEEK 2 THE GFS SUPERENSEMBLE MEAN DEPICTS ALMOST NO CHANGE TO THE EXPECTED CIRCULATION PATTERN OVER THE CONUS FROM THAT DEPICTED FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD. THE RIDGE FORECAST OVER SOUTHWESTERN ALASKA DURING THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD IS FORECAST TO PROGRESS SLOWLY EASTWARD DURING WEEK 2. THE 0Z OPERATIONAL GFS IS A BIT MORE AMPLIFIED WITH MOST OF THE CIRCULATION FEATURES COMPARED TO THE SUPERENSEMBLE MEAN AND LEAVES LESS TROUGH ENERGY BEHIND OVER THE CENTRAL GULF COAST. THE 6Z OPERATIONAL GFS IS GENERALLY SIMILAR TO THE GFS SUPERENSEMBLE MEAN BUT IT IS MORE AMPLIFIED AND PROGRESSIVE WITH THE TROUGH APPROACHING THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND IS DEEPER WITH THE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. THE ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLUTIONS SHOW GOOD CONTINUITY WITH RESPECT TO THEIR SOLUTIONS FROM YESTERDAY WHILE THE 0Z AND 6Z OPERATIONAL GFS ARE GENERALLY LESS PROGRESSIVE TODAY. AS A RESULT HEIGHTS ARE GENERALLY FORECAST TO BE BELOW NORMAL OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE CONUS... ALONG THE GULF COAST AND OVER THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS... AND ABOVE NORMAL OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE CONUS AND ALASKA. THE ENSEMBLE SPAGHETTI DIAGRAMS INDICATE RELATIVELY LOW SPREAD FOR THE RIDGE FORECAST OVER THE WESTERN CONUS... MODERATE SPREAD WITH REGARD TO THE AMPLITUDE OF THE TROUGH FORECAST FOR THE EASTERN CONUS AND THE TROUGH APPROACHING THE WEST COAST... AND LARGE SPREAD OVER THE NORTHEAST ATLANTIC... EASTERN PACIFIC AND OVER ALASKA. THE EXPECTED TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION ANOMALY PATTERNS FOR WEEK 2 ARE VERY SIMILAR TO THOSE DEPICTED FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD ALTHOUGH NORTHERN ALASKA IS EXPECTED TO TRANSITION FROM NEAR NORMAL PRECIPITATION TO ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION AS THE TROUGH OVER THE ALEUTIANS IN THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD IS EXPECTED TO PROGRESS EASTWARD DURING WEEK 2. THE OFFICIAL 8-14 DAY HEIGHT PROG CONSISTS OF 10 PERCENT OF TODAY'S OPERATIONAL 0Z GFS CENTERED ON DAY 11...20 PERCENT OF TODAY'S OPERATIONAL 6Z GFS CENTERED ON DAY 11...30 PERCENT OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11...AND 40 PERCENT OF TODAY'S GFS SUPERENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11. FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD IS ABOVE AVERAGE... 4 ON A SCALE OF 1 TO 5. THE 8-14 DAY TEMPERATURE PROG IS BASED ON THE KLEIN... NEURAL NET... AND ANALOG SPECIFICATIONS FROM THE OFFICIAL BLEND... THE CPC AUTO TEMPERATURE FORECAST... CDC PROBABILITIES FROM THE GFS REFORECAST TOOL... THE 2 METER CALIBRATED TEMPERATURES PREDICTED FROM THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN... THE 850-HPA BIAS-CORRECTED TEMPERATURES FROM THE 0Z OPERATIONAL GFS AND THE KLEIN AND NEURAL NET PROBABILITIES FROM THE GFS ENSEMBLE. THE 8-14 DAY PRECIPITATION PROG IS BASED ON THE ANALOG AND NEURAL NET SPECIFICATIONS FROM THE OFFICIAL BLEND... CPC AND EMC CALIBRATED PRECIPITATION PERCENTAGES FROM THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS... CDC PROBABILITIES FROM THE GFS REFORECAST PRECIPITATION TOOL... THE CPC AUTO PRECIPITATION FORECAST AND CALIBRATED PRECIPITATION FROM THE 0Z OPERATIONAL GFS AND 0Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN. FORECASTER: SCHECHTER NOTES: OPERATIONAL CHANGE: AS OF JULY 5 2005 SHADED MAPS HAVE REPLACED THE CONTOUR-ONLY MAPS ON THE CPC WEB SITE. THE CONTOURED MAPS ARE STILL AVAILABLE AT THEIR CURRENT FILE NAMES - SO DIRECT-LINKED USERS ARE NOT AFFECTED. AWIPS GRAPHICS ARE ALSO NOT AFFECTED BY THIS CHANGE. AUTOMATED FORECASTS ARE ISSUED ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. OTHERWISE - FORECASTS INCORPORATE FORECASTER INPUT. THE NOTATION FOR THE CATEGORICAL FORECAST INDICATED ON THE MAPS IS THE SAME AS THAT IN THE TABLES: A-ABOVE N-NEAR NORMAL B-BELOW IN THE SOUTHWEST AND OTHER CLIMATOLOGICALLY DRY REGIONS - THERE WILL BE A GREATER THAN 33.3% CHANCE OF NO PRECIPITATION AND OCCASIONALLY EVEN A NORMAL (I.E. MEDIAN) VALUE OF ZERO - ESPECIALLY DURING THE DRY SEASONS. IN SUCH CASES A FORECAST OF NEAR NORMAL IS EFFECTIVELY A FORECAST OF LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION. THE NARRATIVE DESCRIPTION OF THE FORECAST PATTERNS FOR TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION FOR BOTH THE 6-10 OR 8-14 DAY PERIODS HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED. THE STATE TABLES FOR BOTH THE 6-10 AND 8-14 DAY PERIODS ARE NOW CONTAINED IN THIS MESSAGE...AVAILABLE AS PMDMRD ON AWIPS. THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER USES 1971-2000 BASE PERIOD MEANS FOR TEMPERATURE...PRECIPITATION...AND 500-HPA HEIGHTS AS REFERENCE IN THE CLIMATE OUTLOOKS. THE NEXT SET OF LONG-LEAD MONTHLY AND SEASONAL OUTLOOKS WILL BE RELEASED ON JUNE 15. AN UPDATED MONTHLY OUTLOOK FOR JUNE WILL BE ISSUED MAY 31. NEW NOTE EFFECTIVE MAR 16 2004: THE GLOSSARY FORMERLY FOUND AT THIS LOCATION WILL NO LONGER BE TRANSMITTED AS PART OF THIS MESSAGE. IF YOU WISH TO SEE THE DEFINITIONS OF TERMS USED IN THESE MESSAGES... PLEASE GO TO THE CPC WEB PAGE AT (USE LOWER CASE) HTTP://WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV AND FOLLOW THE APPROPRIATE LINKS. ANALOGS TO THE 5 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 3 DAYS AGO (D-3) FOR THE REGION FROM 20N to 70N LATITUDE AND 175E to 60W LONGITUDE INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES: 19920520 - 19910523 - 19590526 - 19680513 - 19960601 ANALOGS TO THE 7 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 4 DAYS AGO (D-4) FOR THE REGION FROM 20N to 70N LATITUDE AND 175E to 60W LONGITUDE INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES: 19920520 - 19910523 - 19960601 - 19680513 - 19590526 6 to 10 day Outlook Table OUTLOOK FOR JUN 06 - 10, 2006 STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN WASHINGTON N N OREGON A N NRN CALIF A N SRN CALIF A N IDAHO A B NEVADA A B W MONTANA A B E MONTANA A B WYOMING A B UTAH A B ARIZONA A B COLORADO A B NEW MEXICO A B N DAKOTA A N S DAKOTA A B NEBRASKA A B KANSAS A B OKLAHOMA A B N TEXAS N B S TEXAS N N W TEXAS N B MINNESOTA A N IOWA A B MISSOURI A B ARKANSAS N B LOUISIANA N N WISCONSIN N N ILLINOIS N B MISSISSIPPI N N MICHIGAN B B INDIANA N B OHIO N B KENTUCKY N B TENNESSEE N B ALABAMA B N NEW YORK N N VERMONT N N NEW HAMP B N MAINE N A MASS B A CONN B A RHODE IS B A PENN N B NEW JERSEY B N W VIRGINIA N B MARYLAND B N DELAWARE B N VIRGINIA N N N CAROLINA B N S CAROLINA B N GEORGIA B N FL PNHDL B N FL PENIN B N AK N SLOPE B N AK ALEUTIAN A A AK WESTERN N A AK INT BSN N N AK S INT A B AK SO COAST A B AK PNHDL A B 8 to 14 day Outlook Table OUTLOOK FOR JUN 08 - 14, 2006 STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN WASHINGTON N N OREGON A B NRN CALIF A N SRN CALIF A B IDAHO A B NEVADA A B W MONTANA A N E MONTANA A N WYOMING A B UTAH A B ARIZONA A B COLORADO A B NEW MEXICO A B N DAKOTA A N S DAKOTA A N NEBRASKA A B KANSAS A B OKLAHOMA A B N TEXAS N N S TEXAS N N W TEXAS A B MINNESOTA A N IOWA A B MISSOURI N B ARKANSAS N B LOUISIANA N N WISCONSIN N B ILLINOIS N B MISSISSIPPI N B MICHIGAN N B INDIANA N B OHIO B B KENTUCKY B B TENNESSEE N B ALABAMA N B NEW YORK B N VERMONT B N NEW HAMP B N MAINE B A MASS B A CONN B N RHODE IS B N PENN B B NEW JERSEY B N W VIRGINIA B B MARYLAND B N DELAWARE B N VIRGINIA B B N CAROLINA B B S CAROLINA B B GEORGIA B B FL PNHDL B B FL PENIN N N AK N SLOPE B N AK ALEUTIAN N A AK WESTERN N N AK INT BSN N N AK S INT A B AK SO COAST A B AK PNHDL A B LEGEND TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN A - ABOVE N - NEAR NORMAL A - ABOVE N - NEAR MEDIAN B - BELOW B - BELOW THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS PMDMRD. $$