PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSIONS FOR 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD 300 PM EDT WED MAY 24 2006 6-10 DAY OUTLOOK VALID FOR MAY 30 - JUN 03, 2006 TODAYS ENSEMBLE MEAN MODEL RUNS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE EXPECTED LARGE SCALE FEATURES OF THE NORTH AMERICAN CIRCULATION FOR THE 6-10 DAY FORECAST PERIOD. IN CONNECTION WITH THE FORECAST OF ABOVE NORMAL 500-HPA HEIGHTS OVER MOST OF CANADA AND THE U.S. A BROAD RIDGE IS PREDICTED TO DOMINATE THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY WHILE A TROUGH IS FORECAST TO DOMINATE THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE CONUS AND BE LOCATED JUST OFF THE WEST COAST. ANOTHER TROUGH IS FORECAST TO BE OVER THE ATLANTIC JUST EAST OF NEWFOUNDLAND... WHILE WELL ABOVE NORMAL HEIGHTS ARE PREDICTED TO DOMINAT A LARGE AREA EXTENDING FROM NORTHERN RUSSIA TO ALASKA... WITH POSITIVE ANOMALY CENTERS LOCATED NEAR NOVAYA ZEMLYA AND OVER THE WESTERN BERING SEA. TODAY'S MODELS SHOW AT MOST A VERY WEAK TROUGH OR CLOSED LOW A SHORT DISTANCE OFF THE EAST COAST AT THE BEGINNING OF THE FORECAST PERIOD... SO THE MAIN IMPACT WILL BE TO LIMIT THE AMOUNT OF WARMING EAST OF THE APPALACHIANS DUE TO EXPECTED LOW-LEVEL NORTHERLY OR NORTHEASTERLY FLOW. ANY SIGNIFICANT CYCLOGENESIS IS LIKELY TO BE WELL OFF THE COAST. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY OVER MOST OF THE EASTERN CONUS AND ALASKA DUE TO THE RIDGES AND ABOVE NORMAL HEIGHTS FORECAST THERE WHILE BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY OVER PARTS OF THE WESTERN CONUS DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH FORECAST FOR THAT REGION. RELATIVELY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER MOST OF THE CONUS DUE TO THE FORECAST UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE... WHILE ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE OVER THE GULF COAST IN ASSOCIATION WITH A WEAKNESS EXPECTED IN THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE IN THAT AREA... AS WELL AS ALONG MUCH OF THE WEST COAST AND OVER THE INTERIOR PACIFIC NORTHWEST IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH PREDICTED JUST OFF THE WEST COAST. ABOVE NORMAL HEIGHTS OVER ALASKA SUGGEST THAT MUCH OF THE STATE WILL HAVE BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION. TODAYS OFFICIAL 500-HPA BLEND CONSISTS OF 5 PERCENT OF TODAY'S OPERATIONAL 0Z GFS CENTERED ON DAY 8...5 PERCENT OF TODAY'S OPERATIONAL 6Z GFS CENTERED ON DAY 8...10 PERCENT OF TODAY'S DAVA CENTERED ON DAY 8...20 PERCENT OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8...20 PERCENT OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8...20 PERCENT OF TODAY'S GFS SUPERENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8...AND 20 PERCENT OF TODAY'S EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 7. MODEL(S) OF THE DAY: NO PREFERENCE FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD IS ABOVE AVERAGE TODAY... 4 ON A SCALE OF 1 TO 5... DUE TO FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG THE MODELS AND TELECONNECTIVITY FROM THE POSITIVE HEIGHT ANOMALY CENTER NEAR 50N/80W. THE 6-10 DAY TEMPERATURE PROG IS BASED ON THE KLEIN... NEURAL NET... AND ANALOG SPECIFICATIONS FROM THE OFFICIAL BLEND... THE CPC AUTO TEMPERATURE FORECAST... THE CDC REFORECAST TEMPERATURE TOOL... AND THE 2-METER CALIBRATED TEMPERATURE FORECAST FROM THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN. THE 6-10 DAY PRECIPITATION PROG IS BASED ON THE ANALOG AND NEURAL NET SPECIFICATIONS FROM THE OFFICIAL BLEND AND THE INDIVIDUAL FORECAST MODELS... THE CPC AUTO PRECIPITATION FORECAST... CDC PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES FROM THE REFORECAST TOOL... NEURAL NET PROBABLILITIES FROM THE GFS AND ECMWF MODELS... AND CPC AND EMC CALIBRATED PRECIPITATION PERCENTAGES FROM THE 0Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS. 8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR JUN 01 - 07 2006: FOR WEEK 2 THE GFS SUPERENSEMBLE MEAN AND MOST OTHER GFS-BASED MODELS DEPICT A SIMILAR CIRCULATION PATTERN TO THAT FORECAST FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD... BUT WITH MUCH LESS AMPLITUDE. THE RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN CONUS IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN WHILE RETROGRADING TO THE GREAT PLAINS AREA. THE 6Z GFS OPERATIONAL MODEL IS AN OUTLIER... PREDICTING A VERY STRONG TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED NEGATIVE ANOMALY NEAR THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST. SINCE THE 0Z AND 6Z OPERATIONAL RUNS ALSO PREDICT A STRONGER TROUGH OFF THE WEST COAST... SOMEWHAT GREATER WEIGHTS WERE GIVEN TO THESE FORECASTS THAN WOULD ORDINARILY BE JUSTIFIED BY THEIR LOWER AC SKLL SCORES... SINCE THE MORE AMPLIFIED PATTERNS PREDICTED BY THEM WOULD PROBABLY BE MORE IN KEEPING WITH CORRECTING RECENT CONSISTENT ERRORS OF THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN PROGS. ABOVE NORMAL HEIGHTS ARE FORECAST TO PERSIST OVER THE BERING SEA AND SOUTHERN ALASKA WHILE A TROUGH IS FORECAST TO DEEPEN SOMEWHAT OVER THE NORTHERN PART OF THE STATE. 500-HPA HEIGHTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE BELOW NORMAL OVER THE GULF AND SOUTH ATLANTIC STATES... THE WEST COAST OF THE CONUS AND NORTHERN ALASKA... WITH ABOVE NORMAL HEIGHTS EXPECTED ELSEWHERE. THE MODELS SHOW FAIRLY GOOD CONTINUITY WITH RESPECT TO THEIR SOLUTIONS FROM YESTERDAY ALTHOUGH SOME RETROGRESSION OF FEATURES IN THE VICINITY OF THE CONUS IS EXPECTED. CORRESPONDING CHANGES IN THE TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION PROGS FOR THE WEEK 2 PERIOD ARE INDICATED. THE OFFICIAL 8-14 DAY HEIGHT PROG CONSISTS OF 15 PERCENT OF TODAY'S OPERATIONAL 0Z GFS CENTERED ON DAY 11...15 PERCENT OF TODAY'S OPERATIONAL 6Z GFS CENTERED ON DAY 11...15 PERCENT OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11...15 PERCENT OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11...10 PERCENT OF YESTERDAY'S 12Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 10...10 PERCENT OF YESTERDAY'S 18Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 10...AND 20 PERCENT OF TODAY'S GFS SUPERENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11. FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD IS NEAR AVERAGE... 3 ON A SCALE OF 1 TO 5. THE 8-14 DAY TEMPERATURE PROG IS BASED ON THE KLEIN... NEURAL NET... AND ANALOG SPECIFICATIONS FROM THE OFFICIAL BLEND... THE CPC AUTO TEMPERATURE FORECAST... CDC PROBABILITIES FROM THE GFS REFORECAST TOOL... AND THE KLEIN AND NEURAL NET PROBABILITIES FROM THE GFS ENSEMBLE. THE 8-14 DAY PRECIPITATION PROG IS BASED ON THE ANALOG AND NEURAL NET SPECIFICATIONS FROM THE OFFICIAL BLEND... CPC AND EMC CALIBRATED PRECIPITATION PERCENTAGES FROM THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS... CDC PROBABILITIES FROM THE GFS REFORECAST PRECIPITATION TOOL... AND THE CPC AUTO PRECIPITATION FORECAST. FORECASTER: WAGNER NOTES: OPERATIONAL CHANGE: AS OF JULY 5 2005 SHADED MAPS HAVE REPLACED THE CONTOUR-ONLY MAPS ON THE CPC WEB SITE. THE CONTOURED MAPS ARE STILL AVAILABLE AT THEIR CURRENT FILE NAMES - SO DIRECT-LINKED USERS ARE NOT AFFECTED. AWIPS GRAPHICS ARE ALSO NOT AFFECTED BY THIS CHANGE. AUTOMATED FORECASTS ARE ISSUED ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. OTHERWISE - FORECASTS INCORPORATE FORECASTER INPUT. THE NOTATION FOR THE CATEGORICAL FORECAST INDICATED ON THE MAPS IS THE SAME AS THAT IN THE TABLES: A-ABOVE N-NEAR NORMAL B-BELOW IN THE SOUTHWEST AND OTHER CLIMATOLOGICALLY DRY REGIONS - THERE WILL BE A GREATER THAN 33.3% CHANCE OF NO PRECIPITATION AND OCCASIONALLY EVEN A NORMAL (I.E. MEDIAN) VALUE OF ZERO - ESPECIALLY DURING THE DRY SEASONS. IN SUCH CASES A FORECAST OF NEAR NORMAL IS EFFECTIVELY A FORECAST OF LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION. THE NARRATIVE DESCRIPTION OF THE FORECAST PATTERNS FOR TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION FOR BOTH THE 6-10 OR 8-14 DAY PERIODS HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED. THE STATE TABLES FOR BOTH THE 6-10 AND 8-14 DAY PERIODS ARE NOW CONTAINED IN THIS MESSAGE...AVAILABLE AS PMDMRD ON AWIPS. THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER USES 1971-2000 BASE PERIOD MEANS FOR TEMPERATURE...PRECIPITATION...AND 500-HPA HEIGHTS AS REFERENCE IN THE CLIMATE OUTLOOKS. THE NEXT SET OF LONG-LEAD MONTHLY AND SEASONAL OUTLOOKS WILL BE RELEASED ON JUNE 15. AN UPDATED MONTHLY OUTLOOK FOR JUNE WILL BE ISSUED MAY 31. NEW NOTE EFFECTIVE MAR 16 2004: THE GLOSSARY FORMERLY FOUND AT THIS LOCATION WILL NO LONGER BE TRANSMITTED AS PART OF THIS MESSAGE. IF YOU WISH TO SEE THE DEFINITIONS OF TERMS USED IN THESE MESSAGES... PLEASE GO TO THE CPC WEB PAGE AT (USE LOWER CASE) HTTP://WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV AND FOLLOW THE APPROPRIATE LINKS. ANALOGS TO THE 5 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 3 DAYS AGO (D-3) FOR THE REGION FROM 20N to 70N LATITUDE AND 175E to 60W LONGITUDE INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES: 19610523 - 19900522 - 19520504 - 19880604 - 19520509 ANALOGS TO THE 7 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 4 DAYS AGO (D-4) FOR THE REGION FROM 20N to 70N LATITUDE AND 175E to 60W LONGITUDE INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES: 19610523 - 19770606 - 19520509 - 19520503 - 19900522 6 to 10 day Outlook Table OUTLOOK FOR MAY 30 - JUN 03, 2006 STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN WASHINGTON N A OREGON N A NRN CALIF B A SRN CALIF N B IDAHO N N NEVADA N N W MONTANA N N E MONTANA N N WYOMING A N UTAH A B ARIZONA A B COLORADO A B NEW MEXICO A B N DAKOTA A A S DAKOTA A A NEBRASKA A N KANSAS A N OKLAHOMA A A N TEXAS A A S TEXAS N N W TEXAS A N MINNESOTA A A IOWA A A MISSOURI A N ARKANSAS A A LOUISIANA N A WISCONSIN A A ILLINOIS A N MISSISSIPPI N A MICHIGAN A B INDIANA A N OHIO A B KENTUCKY A N TENNESSEE A N ALABAMA N A NEW YORK A B VERMONT A B NEW HAMP A B MAINE N N MASS N B CONN A B RHODE IS N B PENN A B NEW JERSEY A B W VIRGINIA A B MARYLAND A B DELAWARE N B VIRGINIA N B N CAROLINA N N S CAROLINA B N GEORGIA B N FL PNHDL B N FL PENIN N N AK N SLOPE N N AK ALEUTIAN A B AK WESTERN A B AK INT BSN N B AK S INT A B AK SO COAST A B AK PNHDL A B 8 to 14 day Outlook Table OUTLOOK FOR JUN 01 - 07, 2006 STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN WASHINGTON N A OREGON N N NRN CALIF N N SRN CALIF A B IDAHO N N NEVADA A B W MONTANA N N E MONTANA A N WYOMING A B UTAH A B ARIZONA A B COLORADO A B NEW MEXICO A B N DAKOTA A A S DAKOTA A N NEBRASKA A N KANSAS A N OKLAHOMA A N N TEXAS N N S TEXAS N N W TEXAS A N MINNESOTA A A IOWA A B MISSOURI A N ARKANSAS N N LOUISIANA B N WISCONSIN A B ILLINOIS A N MISSISSIPPI N N MICHIGAN A B INDIANA A N OHIO A B KENTUCKY N N TENNESSEE N N ALABAMA B N NEW YORK A B VERMONT A B NEW HAMP N N MAINE N N MASS N N CONN N B RHODE IS N N PENN N B NEW JERSEY N B W VIRGINIA N N MARYLAND N B DELAWARE N B VIRGINIA N N N CAROLINA B N S CAROLINA B N GEORGIA B N FL PNHDL B N FL PENIN B N AK N SLOPE N A AK ALEUTIAN N B AK WESTERN B N AK INT BSN N N AK S INT A B AK SO COAST A B AK PNHDL A B LEGEND TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN A - ABOVE N - NEAR NORMAL A - ABOVE N - NEAR MEDIAN B - BELOW B - BELOW THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS PMDMRD. $$