PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSIONS FOR 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD 300 PM EDT MON MAY 22 2006 6-10 DAY OUTLOOK VALID FOR MAY 28 - JUN 01, 2006 TODAYS MODEL RUNS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE LARGE SCALE FEATURES OF THE NORTH AMERICAN CIRCULATION FOR THE 6-10 DAY FORECAST PERIOD. THOUGH A FEW OF THE MODELS INDICATE SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE POSITIONING OF LONGWAVES (MOST NOTABLY THE CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN), THE OVERALL 500-HPA FLOW PATTERN IS WELL DEFINED. THE CONSENSUS PATTERN (AS DEPICTED BY THE OFFICIAL BLEND MAP) PREDICTS STRONG RIDGES CENTERED OVER THE BERING SEA - THE GREAT LAKES REGION - AND THE FAR EASTERN ATLANTIC...WITH THE HIGHEST PREDICTED HEIGHTS RELATIVE TO NORMAL OVER THE BERING SEA. RELATIVELY WEAK ANOMALOUS TROUGHS ARE FORECAST OVER THE FAR WESTERN CONUS AND ALSO OVER THE GRAND BANKS AREA CENTERED NEAR OR ALONG 50W LONGITUDE. A HIGH LATITUDE TROUGH CENTERED OVER THE CANADIAN ARCHIPELAGO HAS A WEAK SOUTHWESTWARD EXTENSION ACROSS THE YUKON AND THE ALASKA PANHANDLE, AND THEN WESTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA (WHICH IS MORE NOTICEABLE IN THE FULL HEIGHT FIELD). TODAYS OFFICIAL 500-HPA BLEND CONSISTS OF 10 PERCENT OF TODAY'S OPERATIONAL 0Z GFS CENTERED ON DAY 8...10 PERCENT OF TODAY'S OPERATIONAL 6Z GFS CENTERED ON DAY 8...10 PERCENT OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8...25 PERCENT OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8...25 PERCENT OF TODAY'S GFS SUPERENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8...AND 20 PERCENT OF TODAY'S EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 7. MODEL(S) OF THE DAY: GFS SUPERENSEMBLE MEAN AND THE 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN (TIED) FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD IS ABOVE AVERAGE TODAY... 4 ON A SCALE OF 1 TO 5... DUE TO GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG THE MODELS. THE 6-10 DAY TEMPERATURE PROG IS BASED ON THE KLEIN... NEURAL NET... AND ANALOG SPECIFICATIONS FROM THE OFFICIAL BLEND... THE CPC AUTO TEMPERATURE FORECAST... AND THE CDC REFORECAST TEMPERATURE TOOL...AS WELL AS THE 2-METER CALIBRATED TEMPERATURE FORECAST FROM THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN. THE 6-10 DAY PRECIPITATION PROG IS BASED ON THE ANALOG AND NEURAL NET SPECIFICATIONS FROM THE OFFICIAL BLEND AND THE INDIVIDUAL FORECAST MODELS... THE CPC AUTO PRECIPITATION FORECAST... AND CDC PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES FROM THE REFORECAST TOOL. 8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR MAY 30 - JUN 05, 2006: THERE IS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE WEEK 2 FLOW PATTERN OVER THE NORTH AMERICAN VICINITY. RELATIVE TO THE PRECEDING 6-10 DAY FORECAST, MOST CIRCULATION FEATURES SHOW SOME DEGREE OF WEAKENING (THOUGH THE GRAND BANKS TROUGH ACTUALLY DEEPENS), IN ADDITION TO SLIGHT EASTWARD MOTION. MOST COMPUTER MODELS SHOW A WEAK TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO, WITH THE OPERATIONAL 6Z GFS HAVING ONE CLOSED HEIGHT ANOMALY CONTOUR OVER FLORIDA (CONTOUR INTERVAL IS -30 METERS). IN NORTHEAST ALASKA, THE PREDICTED WIDESPREAD AREA OF RELATIVELY MILD, DRY CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED TO GIVE WAY TO NEAR-AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AND PRECIPITATION, AS AN UPPER LOW OVER THE CANADIAN ARCHIPELAGO SHIFTS WESTWARD, BRINGING CYCLONIC CURVATURE AND LOWERED 500-HPA HEIGHTS TO THAT REGION. OVER THE WESTERN CONUS, THE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE WEAKENING, AS HEIGHTS BEGIN TO INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION, WITH BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES (PREDICTED DURING DAYS 6-10) MODERATING TO MORE SEASONABLE VALUES. ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS, TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY REMAIN WARMER THAN USUAL, AND PRECIPITATION WILL BE SHIFTING EASTWARD FROM THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TOWARDS THE ATLANTIC COAST. THE OFFICIAL 8-14 DAY HEIGHT PROG CONSISTS OF 15 PERCENT OF TODAY'S OPERATIONAL 0Z GFS CENTERED ON DAY 11...10 PERCENT OF TODAY'S OPERATIONAL 6Z GFS CENTERED ON DAY 11...25 PERCENT OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11...25 PERCENT OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11...AND 25 PERCENT OF TODAY'S GFS SUPERENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11. FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD IS NEAR AVERAGE... 3 ON A SCALE OF 1 TO 5. THE 8-14 DAY TEMPERATURE PROG IS BASED ON THE KLEIN... NEURAL NET... AND ANALOG SPECIFICATIONS FROM THE OFFICIAL BLEND... THE CPC AUTO TEMPERATURE FORECAST... AND CDC PROBABILITIES FROM THE GFS REFORECAST TOOL. THE 8-14 DAY PRECIPITATION PROG IS BASED ON THE ANALOG AND NEURAL NET SPECIFICATIONS FROM THE OFFICIAL BLEND... CPC CALIBRATED PRECIPITATION PERCENTAGES FOR THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS... AND CDC PROBABILITIES FROM THE GFS REFORECAST PRECIPITATION TOOL... AND THE CPC AUTO PRECIPITATION FORECAST. FORECASTER: ARTUSA NOTES: OPERATIONAL CHANGE: AS OF JULY 5 2005 SHADED MAPS HAVE REPLACED THE CONTOUR-ONLY MAPS ON THE CPC WEB SITE. THE CONTOURED MAPS ARE STILL AVAILABLE AT THEIR CURRENT FILE NAMES - SO DIRECT-LINKED USERS ARE NOT AFFECTED. AWIPS GRAPHICS ARE ALSO NOT AFFECTED BY THIS CHANGE. AUTOMATED FORECASTS ARE ISSUED ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. OTHERWISE - FORECASTS INCORPORATE FORECASTER INPUT. THE NOTATION FOR THE CATEGORICAL FORECAST INDICATED ON THE MAPS IS THE SAME AS THAT IN THE TABLES: A-ABOVE N-NEAR NORMAL B-BELOW IN THE SOUTHWEST AND OTHER CLIMATOLOGICALLY DRY REGIONS - THERE WILL BE A GREATER THAN 33.3% CHANCE OF NO PRECIPITATION AND OCCASIONALLY EVEN A NORMAL (I.E. MEDIAN) VALUE OF ZERO - ESPECIALLY DURING THE DRY SEASONS. IN SUCH CASES A FORECAST OF NEAR NORMAL IS EFFECTIVELY A FORECAST OF LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION. THE NARRATIVE DESCRIPTION OF THE FORECAST PATTERNS FOR TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION FOR BOTH THE 6-10 OR 8-14 DAY PERIODS HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED. THE STATE TABLES FOR BOTH THE 6-10 AND 8-14 DAY PERIODS ARE NOW CONTAINED IN THIS MESSAGE...AVAILABLE AS PMDMRD ON AWIPS. THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER USES 1971-2000 BASE PERIOD MEANS FOR TEMPERATURE...PRECIPITATION...AND 500-HPA HEIGHTS AS REFERENCE IN THE CLIMATE OUTLOOKS. THE NEXT SET OF LONG-LEAD MONTHLY AND SEASONAL OUTLOOKS WILL BE RELEASED ON JUNE 15. NEW NOTE EFFECTIVE MAR 16 2004: THE GLOSSARY FORMERLY FOUND AT THIS LOCATION WILL NO LONGER BE TRANSMITTED AS PART OF THIS MESSAGE. IF YOU WISH TO SEE THE DEFINITIONS OF TERMS USED IN THESE MESSAGES... PLEASE GO TO THE CPC WEB PAGE AT (USE LOWER CASE) HTTP://WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV AND FOLLOW THE APPROPRIATE LINKS. ANALOGS TO THE 5 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 3 DAYS AGO (D-3) FOR THE REGION FROM 20N to 70N LATITUDE AND 175E to 60W LONGITUDE INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES: 19610523 - 19970515 - 19930517 - 19730518 - 19660528 ANALOGS TO THE 7 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 4 DAYS AGO (D-4) FOR THE REGION FROM 20N to 70N LATITUDE AND 175E to 60W LONGITUDE INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES: 19610523 - 19970515 - 19600511 - 19850517 - 19930517 6 to 10 day Outlook Table OUTLOOK FOR MAY 28 - JUN 01, 2006 STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN WASHINGTON B A OREGON B N NRN CALIF B N SRN CALIF N N IDAHO B A NEVADA B N W MONTANA N A E MONTANA N A WYOMING N N UTAH N N ARIZONA N N COLORADO A B NEW MEXICO A B N DAKOTA A A S DAKOTA A A NEBRASKA A N KANSAS A B OKLAHOMA A B N TEXAS A N S TEXAS A A W TEXAS A B MINNESOTA A N IOWA A N MISSOURI A B ARKANSAS A N LOUISIANA A A WISCONSIN A N ILLINOIS A B MISSISSIPPI A N MICHIGAN A N INDIANA A B OHIO A B KENTUCKY A B TENNESSEE A N ALABAMA A N NEW YORK A B VERMONT A B NEW HAMP A B MAINE A B MASS A B CONN A B RHODE IS A B PENN A B NEW JERSEY A B W VIRGINIA A B MARYLAND A B DELAWARE A B VIRGINIA A B N CAROLINA A B S CAROLINA A B GEORGIA A N FL PNHDL A N FL PENIN A N AK N SLOPE N B AK ALEUTIAN A B AK WESTERN A B AK INT BSN A B AK S INT A B AK SO COAST A B AK PNHDL A B 8 to 14 day Outlook Table OUTLOOK FOR MAY 30 - JUN 05, 2006 STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN WASHINGTON N N OREGON N B NRN CALIF N B SRN CALIF N B IDAHO N N NEVADA N B W MONTANA N N E MONTANA N A WYOMING A N UTAH N N ARIZONA N B COLORADO A N NEW MEXICO A N N DAKOTA A A S DAKOTA A A NEBRASKA A N KANSAS A N OKLAHOMA A N N TEXAS A N S TEXAS A A W TEXAS A N MINNESOTA A A IOWA A A MISSOURI A A ARKANSAS A A LOUISIANA A A WISCONSIN A A ILLINOIS A A MISSISSIPPI A A MICHIGAN A N INDIANA A N OHIO A N KENTUCKY A N TENNESSEE A N ALABAMA A A NEW YORK A B VERMONT A B NEW HAMP A B MAINE A B MASS A B CONN A B RHODE IS A B PENN A B NEW JERSEY A B W VIRGINIA A B MARYLAND A B DELAWARE A B VIRGINIA A B N CAROLINA A N S CAROLINA N N GEORGIA N N FL PNHDL N N FL PENIN N N AK N SLOPE N B AK ALEUTIAN A B AK WESTERN A B AK INT BSN N B AK S INT A B AK SO COAST A B AK PNHDL A B LEGEND TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN A - ABOVE N - NEAR NORMAL A - ABOVE N - NEAR MEDIAN B - BELOW B - BELOW THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS PMDMRD. $$