PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSIONS FOR 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD 300 PM EDT TUE MAY 16 2006 6-10 DAY OUTLOOK VALID FOR MAY 22 - 26 2006 THE ENSEMBLE MEANS FROM THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT ON THE PREDICTED 6 TO 10 DAY MEAN 500-HPA FLOW PATTERN OVER NORTH AMERICA... AND REMAIN VERY CONSISTENT WITH RECENT RUNS. THE GFS AND ECMWF SOLUTIONS CONTINUE TO DEPICT AN AMPLIFIED 500-HPA HEIGHT PATTERN OVER NORTH AMERICA AND ADJACENT AREAS... WITH A TROUGH JUST OFF THE WEST COAST... A RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE HIGH PLAINS... AND A DOWNSTREAM TROUGH OVER NEW ENGLAND. THE 0Z AND 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEANS SHOW LITTLE DEVIATION FROM THE GFS SUPERENSEMBLE MEAN. HOWEVER... SPREAD AMONG THE INDIVIDUAL GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS INCREASES LATER IN THE PERIOD. THE 500-HPA LONGWAVE PATTERN SHOULD PROLONG THE PERIOD OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN NEW ENGLAND... BUT FAVOR A GRADUAL WARMING TREND IN THE SOUTHEAST. ABOVE TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY FOR THE PLAINS... WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ALONG THE WEST COAST. THE AMPLIFIED 500-HPA RIDGE ANCHORED OVER THE PLAINS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION FROM THE ROCKIES TO THE EAST COAST... BUT THE 500-HPA TROUGH OFF THE WEST COAST COULD RESULT IN ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION FOR THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. MEANWHILE... A MODERATELY STRONG 500-HPA RIDGE ACROSS THE ALEUTIANS SHOULD FAVOR BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND PRECIPITATION FOR MUCH OF ALASKA. TODAYS OFFICIAL 500-HPA BLEND CONSISTS OF 10 PERCENT OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8...10 PERCENT OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8...40 PERCENT OF TODAY'S GFS SUPERENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8...AND 40 PERCENT OF TODAY'S EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 7. MODEL(S) OF THE DAY: ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN AND GFS SUPERENSEMBLE MEAN (TIED). THE CANADIAN MODEL WAS UNAVAILABLE TODAY. FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD IS ABOVE AVERAGE TODAY... 4 ON A SCALE OF 1 TO 5... DUE TO EXCELLENT AGREEMENT AMONG THE MODELS AND TOOLS AND GOOD MODEL CONSISTENCY. THE 6-10 DAY TEMPERATURE PROG IS BASED ON THE KLEIN... NEURAL NET... AND ANALOG SPECIFICATIONS FROM THE OFFICIAL BLEND... THE CPC AUTO TEMPERATURE FORECAST... AND THE CDC REFORECAST TEMPERATURE TOOL. THE 6-10 DAY PRECIPITATION PROG IS BASED ON THE ANALOG AND NEURAL NET SPECIFICATIONS FROM THE OFFICIAL BLEND AND THE INDIVIDUAL FORECAST MODELS... THE CPC AUTO PRECIPITATION FORECAST... THE CDC PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES FROM THE REFORECAST TOOL... AND CPC CALIBRATED PRECIPITATION PERCENTAGES FOR THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS. 8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR MAY 24 - 30 2006: THE MEAN 500-HPA HEIGHT PATTERN PREDICTED BY THE GFS ENSEMBLES REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT TODAY FOR THE EAST PACIFIC AND ACROSS NORTH AMERICA. A COMPARISON BETWEEN THE 6-10 AND 8-14 DAY GFS SUPERENSEMBLE MEAN REVEALS A SLIGHT EASTWARD PROGRESSION AND DEAMPLIFICATION OF THE 500-HPA FLOW PATTERN. THE OFFICIAL BLEND CHART DEPICTS A BROAD 500-HPA RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE PLAINS AND 500-HPA TROUGHS OFF THE EAST COAST AND ALONG THE WEST COAST. TEMPERATURES MAY REMAIN BELOW NORMAL IN NEW ENGLAND BUT ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES SHOULD PERSIST ACROSS THE PLAINS... CORN BELT... AND SOUTH. NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FOR THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND ALASKA. PRECIPITATION TOOLS SUGGEST THAT MUCH OF THE CONUS WILL EXPERIENCE NORMAL TO BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION WITH ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION LIMITED TO THE COASTAL PACIFIC NORTHWEST. ELSEWHERE... BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF ALASKA. THE OFFICIAL 8-14 DAY HEIGHT PROG CONSISTS OF 25 PERCENT OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11...25 PERCENT OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11...AND 50 PERCENT OF TODAY'S GFS SUPERENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11. FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD IS ABOVE AVERAGE... 4 ON A SCALE OF 1 TO 5... DUE TO GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG THE MODEL GUIDANCE AND TOOLS. THE 8-14 DAY TEMPERATURE PROG IS BASED ON THE KLEIN... NEURAL NET... AND ANALOG SPECIFICATIONS FROM THE OFFICIAL BLEND... THE CPC AUTO TEMPERATURE FORECAST... AND CDC PROBABILITIES FROM THE GFS REFORECAST TOOL. THE 8-14 DAY PRECIPITATION PROG IS BASED ON THE ANALOG AND NEURAL NET SPECIFICATIONS FROM THE OFFICIAL BLEND... CPC CALIBRATED PRECIPITATION PERCENTAGES FOR THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS... AND CDC PROBABILITIES FROM THE GFS REFORECAST PRECIPITATION TOOL. FORECASTER: PUGH NOTES: OPERATIONAL CHANGE: AS OF JULY 5 2005 SHADED MAPS HAVE REPLACED THE CONTOUR-ONLY MAPS ON THE CPC WEB SITE. THE CONTOURED MAPS ARE STILL AVAILABLE AT THEIR CURRENT FILE NAMES - SO DIRECT-LINKED USERS ARE NOT AFFECTED. AWIPS GRAPHICS ARE ALSO NOT AFFECTED BY THIS CHANGE. AUTOMATED FORECASTS ARE ISSUED ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. OTHERWISE - FORECASTS INCORPORATE FORECASTER INPUT. THE NOTATION FOR THE CATEGORICAL FORECAST INDICATED ON THE MAPS IS THE SAME AS THAT IN THE TABLES: A-ABOVE N-NEAR NORMAL B-BELOW IN THE SOUTHWEST AND OTHER CLIMATOLOGICALLY DRY REGIONS - THERE WILL BE A GREATER THAN 33.3% CHANCE OF NO PRECIPITATION AND OCCASIONALLY EVEN A NORMAL (I.E. MEDIAN) VALUE OF ZERO - ESPECIALLY DURING THE DRY SEASONS. IN SUCH CASES A FORECAST OF NEAR NORMAL IS EFFECTIVELY A FORECAST OF LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION. THE NARRATIVE DESCRIPTION OF THE FORECAST PATTERNS FOR TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION FOR BOTH THE 6-10 OR 8-14 DAY PERIODS HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED. THE STATE TABLES FOR BOTH THE 6-10 AND 8-14 DAY PERIODS ARE NOW CONTAINED IN THIS MESSAGE...AVAILABLE AS PMDMRD ON AWIPS. THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER USES 1971-2000 BASE PERIOD MEANS FOR TEMPERATURE...PRECIPITATION...AND 500-HPA HEIGHTS AS REFERENCE IN THE CLIMATE OUTLOOKS. THE NEXT SET OF LONG-LEAD MONTHLY AND SEASONAL OUTLOOKS WILL BE RELEASED ON MAY 18. NEW NOTE EFFECTIVE MAR 16 2004: THE GLOSSARY FORMERLY FOUND AT THIS LOCATION WILL NO LONGER BE TRANSMITTED AS PART OF THIS MESSAGE. IF YOU WISH TO SEE THE DEFINITIONS OF TERMS USED IN THESE MESSAGES... PLEASE GO TO THE CPC WEB PAGE AT (USE LOWER CASE) HTTP://WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV AND FOLLOW THE APPROPRIATE LINKS. ANALOGS TO THE 5 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 3 DAYS AGO (D-3) FOR THE REGION FROM 20N to 70N LATITUDE AND 175E to 60W LONGITUDE INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES: 19520511 - 19540509 - 19600510 - 19860525 - 19830528 ANALOGS TO THE 7 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 4 DAYS AGO (D-4) FOR THE REGION FROM 20N to 70N LATITUDE AND 175E to 60W LONGITUDE INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES: 19540509 - 19520511 - 19600510 - 19830528 - 19860524 6 to 10 day Outlook Table OUTLOOK FOR MAY 22 - 26, 2006 STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN WASHINGTON N A OREGON N A NRN CALIF B A SRN CALIF N N IDAHO N A NEVADA N A W MONTANA N N E MONTANA A B WYOMING A N UTAH A N ARIZONA A N COLORADO A B NEW MEXICO A B N DAKOTA A B S DAKOTA A B NEBRASKA A B KANSAS A B OKLAHOMA A B N TEXAS A B S TEXAS A B W TEXAS A B MINNESOTA A B IOWA A B MISSOURI A B ARKANSAS A B LOUISIANA A B WISCONSIN A B ILLINOIS A B MISSISSIPPI A B MICHIGAN N B INDIANA A B OHIO N B KENTUCKY A B TENNESSEE A B ALABAMA A B NEW YORK B B VERMONT B N NEW HAMP B N MAINE B N MASS B N CONN B N RHODE IS B N PENN N B NEW JERSEY B B W VIRGINIA N B MARYLAND N B DELAWARE N B VIRGINIA N B N CAROLINA N B S CAROLINA A B GEORGIA A B FL PNHDL A B FL PENIN N B AK N SLOPE B N AK ALEUTIAN B B AK WESTERN B B AK INT BSN B N AK S INT B B AK SO COAST B B AK PNHDL N N 8 to 14 day Outlook Table OUTLOOK FOR MAY 24 - 30, 2006 STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN WASHINGTON N N OREGON N N NRN CALIF N N SRN CALIF N N IDAHO N N NEVADA N N W MONTANA N N E MONTANA A B WYOMING A B UTAH N N ARIZONA N N COLORADO A B NEW MEXICO A B N DAKOTA A N S DAKOTA A B NEBRASKA A B KANSAS A B OKLAHOMA A B N TEXAS A B S TEXAS A B W TEXAS A B MINNESOTA N N IOWA A B MISSOURI A B ARKANSAS A B LOUISIANA A B WISCONSIN N N ILLINOIS A B MISSISSIPPI A B MICHIGAN N N INDIANA A B OHIO N B KENTUCKY A B TENNESSEE A B ALABAMA A B NEW YORK B B VERMONT B B NEW HAMP B B MAINE B B MASS B B CONN B B RHODE IS B B PENN N B NEW JERSEY N B W VIRGINIA A B MARYLAND N B DELAWARE N B VIRGINIA A B N CAROLINA A B S CAROLINA A B GEORGIA A B FL PNHDL A B FL PENIN A N AK N SLOPE N B AK ALEUTIAN B B AK WESTERN B B AK INT BSN N B AK S INT N B AK SO COAST N B AK PNHDL N N LEGEND TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN A - ABOVE N - NEAR NORMAL A - ABOVE N - NEAR MEDIAN B - BELOW B - BELOW THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS PMDMRD. $$