PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSIONS FOR 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD 300 PM EDT TUE MAY 02 2006 6-10 DAY OUTLOOK VALID FOR MAY 08 - 12 2006 TODAYS MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON PREDICTED THE 6 TO 10 DAY MEAN 500-HPA FLOW PATTERN OVER NORTH AMERICA. THE MODELS FORECAST BELOW NORMAL 500-HPA HEIGHTS OVER ALASKA... EXTENDING SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE WESTERN CONUS. THE 500-HPA HEIGHTS OVER MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CONUS IS PREDICTED TO BE NEAR NORMAL. THERE IS GOOD CONSENSUS FOR A PRONOUNCED TROUGH IN THE WESTERN U.S. FAVORING BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FROM THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS WESTWARD. A STRONG UPPER LEVEL JET FORECAST OVER THE NORTH PACIFIC IS EXPECTED TO BRING WET CONDITIONS TO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND THE ALASKAN PANHANDLE. CONDITIONS EAST OF THE ROCKIES ARE MUCH LESS CERTAIN. A STRONG UPPER LEVEL BLOCKING RIDGE FORECAST TO BE OVER NORTHERN CANADA WILL INHIBIT ANY RIDGE DEVELOPMENT DOWNSTREAM OF THE WESTERN TROUGH... AND KEEP 500-HPA FLOW MOSTLY ZONAL OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN U.S.. THIS MAKES THE TIMING AND INTENSITY OF SURFACE SYSTEMS DIFFICULT. TODAYS OFFICIAL 500-HPA BLEND CONSISTS OF 50 PERCENT OF TODAY'S GFS SUPERENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8...10 PERCENT OF TODAY'S CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8...AND 40 PERCENT OF TODAY'S EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 7. MODEL(S) OF THE DAY: GFS SUPERENSEMBLE. FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD IS ABOUT AVERAGE TODAY... 3 ON A SCALE OF 1 TO 5. THE 6-10 DAY TEMPERATURE PROG IS BASED ON THE KLEIN AND ANALOG SPECIFICATIONS FROM THE OFFICIAL BLEND... THE CPC AUTO TEMPERATURE FORECAST... THE CDC TEMPERATURE PROBABILITIES... AND THE CALIBRATED 2M TEMPERATURES FROM THE 0Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN. TOOLS GIVE ONLY WEAK INDICATIONS EAST OF THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS. THE 6-10 DAY PRECIPITATION PROG IS BASED ON THE ANALOG AND NEURAL NET SPECIFICATIONS FROM THE OFFICIAL BLEND AND THE INDIVIDUAL FORECAST MODELS... THE CPC AUTO PRECIPITATION FORECAST... CDC CALIBRATED PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES FROM THE 0Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN... AND CPC CALIBRATED PRECIPITATION PERCENTAGES FROM THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS. 8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR MAY 10 - 16 2006: THE MEAN 500-HPA HEIGHTS PREDICTED BY THE GFS ENSEMBLES ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR THE 8 TO 14 DAY PERIOD. THE TROUGH PREDICTED IN THE 6 TO 10 DAY PERIOD OVER THE WESTERN U.S. IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST... WITH SOME DISAGREEMENT AMONG ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ON WHETHER THE TROUGH AXIS WILL PROGRESS INTO THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS OR STAY ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST. THE 500-HPA HEIGHTS OVER NORTHERN CANADA ARE PREDICTED TO BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL... FAVORING THE SOUTHWARD SUPRESSION OF THE POLAR JET OVER EASTERN NORTH AMERICA AND KEEPING STRONG ZONAL FLOW OVER MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CONUS. THIS SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL OR ONLY SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL OVER MUCH OF THE COUNTRY EAST OF THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS. THE ACTIVE FLOW PATTERN SHOULD FAVOR ABOVE MEDIAN PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ALONG THE NORTHERN CONUS FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST TO THE GREAT LAKES. THE TOOLS INDICATE DIFFICULTY IN THE PRECIPITATION FORECAST IN THE SOUTHERN PLAINS... EASTERN TEXAS... AND IN THE MIDDLE AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. PRECIPITATION IN THESE REGIONS IS SENSITIVE TO THE LOCATION AND INTENSITY OF ANY RIDGE THAT DEVELOPS DOWNSTREAM OF THE TROUGH IN THE WEST. TODAYS MODELS PREDICT ANY RIDGING IN THIS AREA TO BE VERY WEAK. THE OFFICIAL 8-14 DAY HEIGHT PROG CONSISTS OF 20 PERCENT OF TODAY'S OPERATIONAL 0Z GFS CENTERED ON DAY 11...20 PERCENT OF TODAY'S OPERATIONAL 6Z GFS CENTERED ON DAY 11...AND 60 PERCENT OF TODAY'S GFS SUPERENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11. FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD IS ABOUT AVERAGE... 3 ON A SCALE OF 1 TO 5... WITH ABOVE AVERAGE CONFIDENCE IN THE WEST DUE TO GOOD MODEL CONSENSUS... BUT BELOW AVERAGE CONFIDENCE IN THE EAST BECAUSE OF UNCERTAINTIES IN STRONG ZONAL FLOW. THE 8-14 DAY TEMPERATURE PROG IS BASED ON THE KLEIN AND ANALOG SPECIFICATIONS FROM THE OFFICIAL BLEND... THE CPC AUTO TEMPERATURE FORECAST... ANALOG SPECIFICATIONS FROM THE GFS... CALIBRATED 2 METER TEMPERATURES FROM THE 0Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS... AND THE CDC CALIBRATED TEMPERATURE PROBABILITIES. THE 8-14 DAY PRECIPITATION PROG IS BASED ON THE ANALOG AND NEURAL NET SPECIFICATIONS FROM THE OFFICIAL BLEND... CDC CALIBRATED PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES... AND CPC CALIBRATED PRECIPITATION PERCENTAGES FROM THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS. FORECASTER: D. UNGER NOTES: OPERATIONAL CHANGE: AS OF JULY 5 2005 SHADED MAPS HAVE REPLACED THE CONTOUR-ONLY MAPS ON THE CPC WEB SITE. THE CONTOURED MAPS ARE STILL AVAILABLE AT THEIR CURRENT FILE NAMES - SO DIRECT-LINKED USERS ARE NOT AFFECTED. AWIPS GRAPHICS ARE ALSO NOT AFFECTED BY THIS CHANGE. AUTOMATED FORECASTS ARE ISSUED ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. OTHERWISE - FORECASTS INCORPORATE FORECASTER INPUT. THE NOTATION FOR THE CATEGORICAL FORECAST INDICATED ON THE MAPS IS THE SAME AS THAT IN THE TABLES: A-ABOVE N-NEAR NORMAL B-BELOW IN THE SOUTHWEST AND OTHER CLIMATOLOGICALLY DRY REGIONS - THERE WILL BE A GREATER THAN 33.3% CHANCE OF NO PRECIPITATION AND OCCASIONALLY EVEN A NORMAL (I.E. MEDIAN) VALUE OF ZERO - ESPECIALLY DURING THE DRY SEASONS. IN SUCH CASES A FORECAST OF NEAR NORMAL IS EFFECTIVELY A FORECAST OF LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION. THE NARRATIVE DESCRIPTION OF THE FORECAST PATTERNS FOR TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION FOR BOTH THE 6-10 OR 8-14 DAY PERIODS HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED. THE STATE TABLES FOR BOTH THE 6-10 AND 8-14 DAY PERIODS ARE NOW CONTAINED IN THIS MESSAGE...AVAILABLE AS PMDMRD ON AWIPS. THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER USES 1971-2000 BASE PERIOD MEANS FOR TEMPERATURE...PRECIPITATION...AND 500-HPA HEIGHTS AS REFERENCE IN THE CLIMATE OUTLOOKS. THE NEXT SET OF LONG-LEAD MONTHLY AND SEASONAL OUTLOOKS WILL BE RELEASED ON MAY 18. NEW NOTE EFFECTIVE MAR 16 2004: THE GLOSSARY FORMERLY FOUND AT THIS LOCATION WILL NO LONGER BE TRANSMITTED AS PART OF THIS MESSAGE. IF YOU WISH TO SEE THE DEFINITIONS OF TERMS USED IN THESE MESSAGES... PLEASE GO TO THE CPC WEB PAGE AT (USE LOWER CASE) HTTP://WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV AND FOLLOW THE APPROPRIATE LINKS. ANALOGS TO THE 5 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 3 DAYS AGO (D-3) FOR THE REGION FROM 20N to 70N LATITUDE AND 175E to 60W LONGITUDE INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES: 19860418 - 19870421 - 19870505 - 19800501 - 19930430 ANALOGS TO THE 7 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 4 DAYS AGO (D-4) FOR THE REGION FROM 20N to 70N LATITUDE AND 175E to 60W LONGITUDE INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES: 19860419 - 19800429 - 19870421 - 19870504 - 19870414 6 to 10 day Outlook Table OUTLOOK FOR MAY 08 - 12, 2006 STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN WASHINGTON B A OREGON B A NRN CALIF B N SRN CALIF N N IDAHO B A NEVADA B N W MONTANA B A E MONTANA N A WYOMING N N UTAH N B ARIZONA N B COLORADO N B NEW MEXICO N B N DAKOTA N A S DAKOTA N A NEBRASKA N A KANSAS A N OKLAHOMA A N N TEXAS A B S TEXAS A B W TEXAS A B MINNESOTA N A IOWA N A MISSOURI A A ARKANSAS A N LOUISIANA A B WISCONSIN N A ILLINOIS N A MISSISSIPPI A N MICHIGAN N A INDIANA N A OHIO N A KENTUCKY N N TENNESSEE N N ALABAMA A N NEW YORK B B VERMONT B B NEW HAMP B B MAINE B N MASS B B CONN B B RHODE IS B B PENN N N NEW JERSEY B B W VIRGINIA N N MARYLAND B B DELAWARE B B VIRGINIA N B N CAROLINA N B S CAROLINA N B GEORGIA N B FL PNHDL N B FL PENIN N B AK N SLOPE B B AK ALEUTIAN B B AK WESTERN B B AK INT BSN B B AK S INT B N AK SO COAST B A AK PNHDL B A 8 to 14 day Outlook Table OUTLOOK FOR MAY 10 - 16, 2006 STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN WASHINGTON B A OREGON B A NRN CALIF B N SRN CALIF B N IDAHO B A NEVADA B N W MONTANA B A E MONTANA B A WYOMING B N UTAH B N ARIZONA B N COLORADO B B NEW MEXICO N B N DAKOTA N A S DAKOTA N A NEBRASKA N A KANSAS N N OKLAHOMA A N N TEXAS A B S TEXAS A B W TEXAS A B MINNESOTA N A IOWA N A MISSOURI A A ARKANSAS A N LOUISIANA A N WISCONSIN A A ILLINOIS A A MISSISSIPPI A N MICHIGAN A A INDIANA A A OHIO A N KENTUCKY A N TENNESSEE A N ALABAMA A N NEW YORK N B VERMONT N B NEW HAMP N B MAINE N B MASS N B CONN N B RHODE IS N B PENN N B NEW JERSEY N B W VIRGINIA N B MARYLAND N B DELAWARE N B VIRGINIA N B N CAROLINA N B S CAROLINA A B GEORGIA A B FL PNHDL A B FL PENIN N B AK N SLOPE B B AK ALEUTIAN B B AK WESTERN B B AK INT BSN B B AK S INT B B AK SO COAST B B AK PNHDL B N LEGEND TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN A - ABOVE N - NEAR NORMAL A - ABOVE N - NEAR MEDIAN B - BELOW B - BELOW THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS PMDMRD. $$