PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSIONS FOR 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD 300 PM EDT MON APR 24 2006 6-10 DAY OUTLOOK VALID FOR APR 30 - MAY 04, 2006 TODAY'S GFS AND ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN FORECASTS ARE IN RATHER GOOD AGREEMENT IN CONTINUING A WEAK SPLIT-FLOW 500-HPA PATTERN OVER NORTH AMERICA. AS A GROUP... THE GFS MODELS ARE SOMEWHAT LESS AMPLIFIED THAN THE ECMWF MODELS... AND THE ECMWF MODELS WERE A LITTLE MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH THE PATTERN. THE CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN HAD MORE AMPLITUDE LIKE THE ECMWF MODELS BUT ITS PHASE WAS CLOSER TO THE LESS PROGRESSIVE GFS MODELS. THE MODELS SHOW FAIRLY GOOD CONTINUITY WITH RESPECT TO THEIR SOLUTIONS FROM LATE LAST WEEK AND OVER THE WEEKEND. IN THE MEAN... AS DEPICTED BY THE OFFICIAL 500-HPA PROG... HEIGHTS WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL ACROSS THE NORTHERN U.S. AND SOUTHERN CANADA... WITH A MODERATELY STRONG TROUGH OFF THE SOUTH ATLANTIC COAST AND A WEAK TROUGH OFF BAJA CALIFORNIA. HEIGHTS ARE PREDICTED TO BE BELOW NORMAL ACROSS MOST OF ALASKA AND NORTHERN CANADA... BUT ABOVE NORMAL ACROSS MOST OF THE ASIAN SIDE OF THE ARCTIC BASIN WITH A VERY STRONG RIDGE AND POSITIVE HEIGHT ANOMALY CENTERED OVER THE BARENTS SEA. A SOMEWHAT WEAKER RIDGE AND POSITIVE HEIGHT ANOMALY CENTER IS INDICATED FOR THE WESTERN BERING SEA. TEMPERATURES ACROSS MOST OF THE NORTHWESTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE CONUS ARE FORECAST TO BE NEAR OR ABOVE NORMAL UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE ZONALLY-ORIENTED RIDGE AND ASSOCIATED AREA OF ABOVE NORMAL HEIGHTS. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL BE CONFINED PRIMARILY TO THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES... AND SOUTHEASTERN ALASKA. PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF STATES AND MUCH OF THE WESTERN CONUS IS FORECAST TO BE BELOW NORMAL DUE TO SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE EXTENSIVE AND STRONG RIDGE... WHILE ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS ANTICIPATED ALONG THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST... SOUTHEASTERN ALASKA AND ALONG MUCH OF THE GULF COAST. TODAYS OFFICIAL 500-HPA BLEND CONSISTS OF 5 PERCENT OF TODAY'S OPERATIONAL 0Z GFS CENTERED ON DAY 8...5 PERCENT OF TODAY'S OPERATIONAL 6Z GFS CENTERED ON DAY 8...20 PERCENT OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8...20 PERCENT OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8...20 PERCENT OF TODAY'S GFS SUPERENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8...5 PERCENT OF TODAY'S CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8...AND 25 PERCENT OF TODAY'S EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 7. MODEL(S) OF THE DAY: 12Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN. FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD IS ABOVE AVERAGE TODAY... 4 ON A SCALE OF 1 TO 5... DUE TO GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT. THE 6-10 DAY TEMPERATURE PROG IS BASED ON THE KLEIN... ANALOG... AND NEURAL NETWORK SPECIFICATIONS FROM THE OFFICIAL BLEND... THE CPC AUTO TEMPERATURE FORECAST... AND THE CDC CALIBRATED TEMPERATURE PROBABILITIES AND THE CALIBRATED 2M TEMPERATURES FROM THE 0Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN. THE 6-10 DAY PRECIPITATION PROG IS BASED ON THE ANALOG AND NEURAL NET SPECIFICATIONS FROM THE OFFICIAL BLEND AND THE INDIVIDUAL FORECAST MODELS... THE CPC AUTO PRECIPITATION FORECAST... EMC AND CPC CALIBRATED PRECIPITATION PERCENTAGES FROM THE GFS ENSEMBLES... AND CDC CALIBRATED PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES FROM THE 0Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN. 8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR MAY 02 - 08 2006: DURING WEEK 2 THE VARIOUS GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN AND OPERATIONAL RUNS CONTINUE TO BE IN QUITE GOOD AGREEMENT FOR THIS RANGE. OVERALL... THEY PREDICT A SLIGHT AMPLIFICATION AND RETROGRESSION OF THE 500-HPA FLOW PATTERN IN THE VICINITY OF THE CONUS FROM THAT DEPICTED DURING THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD. THE RIDGE BECOMES STRONGER ESPECIALLY OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST... WHILE HEIGHTS ARE PREDICTED TO FALL OVER SOUTHEASTERN CANADA AND THE EASTERN U.S. RESULTING IN A SLIGHT STRENGTHENING AND RETROGRESSION OF THE TROUGH TO A POSITION NEAR THE ATLANTIC COAST. A RIDGE SOUTHEAST OF THE CANADIAN MARITIMES IS PREDICTED TO WEAKEN SOMEWHAT. HEIGHTS ARE PREDICTED TO RISE SOMEWHAT OVER SOUTHWESTERN ALASKA. AS A RESULT OF THESE MOSTLY GRADUAL CHANGES IN THE HEIGHT PATTERN FROM THAT INDICATED FOR THE 6-10 DAY FORECAST PERIOD... THE TEMPERATURES AND PRECIPITATION PATTERNS ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO BE SIMILAR... WITH A WARMING TREND OVER PARTS OF ALASKA AND STRENGTHENING WARMTH AND DRYNESS OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. SOME COOLING TENDENCY IS INDICATED FOR PARTS OF THE EASTERN CONUS. THE OFFICIAL 8-14 DAY HEIGHT PROG CONSISTS OF 10 PERCENT OF TODAY'S OPERATIONAL 0Z GFS CENTERED ON DAY 11...15 PERCENT OF TODAY'S OPERATIONAL 6Z GFS CENTERED ON DAY 11...20 PERCENT OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11...20 PERCENT OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11...5 PERCENT OF YESTERDAY'S 18Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 10...AND 30 PERCENT OF TODAY'S GFS SUPERENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11. FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD IS ABOVE AVERAGE... 4 ON A SCALE OF 1 TO 5... DUE TO GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT AND CONTINUITY WITH PREVIOUS SOLUTIONS... AND CONSISTENCY WITH THE 6-10 DAY PROGS. THE 8-14 DAY TEMPERATURE PROG IS BASED ON THE KLEIN... NEURAL NET... AND ANALOG SPECIFICATIONS FROM THE OFFICIAL BLEND... THE CPC AUTO TEMPERATURE FORECAST... KLEIN PROBABILITIES FROM THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS... UNCALIBRATED AND CALIBRATED 2 METER TEMPERATURES FROM THE 0Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS... AND THE CDC CALIBRATED TEMPERATURE PROBABILITIES. THE 8-14 DAY PRECIPITATION PROG IS BASED ON THE ANALOG AND NEURAL NET SPECIFICATIONS FROM THE OFFICIAL BLEND... ANALOG SPECIFICATIONS FROM THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEANS... CPC CALIBRATED PRECIPITATION PERCENTAGES FROM THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS... AND CDC CALIBRATED PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES. FORECASTER: WAGNER NOTES: OPERATIONAL CHANGE: AS OF JULY 5 2005 SHADED MAPS HAVE REPLACED THE CONTOUR-ONLY MAPS ON THE CPC WEB SITE. THE CONTOURED MAPS ARE STILL AVAILABLE AT THEIR CURRENT FILE NAMES - SO DIRECT-LINKED USERS ARE NOT AFFECTED. AWIPS GRAPHICS ARE ALSO NOT AFFECTED BY THIS CHANGE. AUTOMATED FORECASTS ARE ISSUED ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. OTHERWISE - FORECASTS INCORPORATE FORECASTER INPUT. THE NOTATION FOR THE CATEGORICAL FORECAST INDICATED ON THE MAPS IS THE SAME AS THAT IN THE TABLES: A-ABOVE N-NEAR NORMAL B-BELOW IN THE SOUTHWEST AND OTHER CLIMATOLOGICALLY DRY REGIONS - THERE WILL BE A GREATER THAN 33.3% CHANCE OF NO PRECIPITATION AND OCCASIONALLY EVEN A NORMAL (I.E. MEDIAN) VALUE OF ZERO - ESPECIALLY DURING THE DRY SEASONS. IN SUCH CASES A FORECAST OF NEAR NORMAL IS EFFECTIVELY A FORECAST OF LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION. THE NARRATIVE DESCRIPTION OF THE FORECAST PATTERNS FOR TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION FOR BOTH THE 6-10 OR 8-14 DAY PERIODS HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED. THE STATE TABLES FOR BOTH THE 6-10 AND 8-14 DAY PERIODS ARE NOW CONTAINED IN THIS MESSAGE...AVAILABLE AS PMDMRD ON AWIPS. THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER USES 1971-2000 BASE PERIOD MEANS FOR TEMPERATURE...PRECIPITATION...AND 500-HPA HEIGHTS AS REFERENCE IN THE CLIMATE OUTLOOKS. THE NEXT SET OF LONG-LEAD MONTHLY AND SEASONAL OUTLOOKS WILL BE RELEASED ON MAY 18. AN UPDATED MONTHLY FORECAST FOR MAY WILL BE ISSUED ON APRIL 30. NEW NOTE EFFECTIVE MAR 16 2004: THE GLOSSARY FORMERLY FOUND AT THIS LOCATION WILL NO LONGER BE TRANSMITTED AS PART OF THIS MESSAGE. IF YOU WISH TO SEE THE DEFINITIONS OF TERMS USED IN THESE MESSAGES... PLEASE GO TO THE CPC WEB PAGE AT (USE LOWER CASE) HTTP://WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV AND FOLLOW THE APPROPRIATE LINKS. ANALOGS TO THE 5 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 3 DAYS AGO (D-3) FOR THE REGION FROM 20N to 70N LATITUDE AND 175E to 60W LONGITUDE INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES: 19800425 - 19840413 - 19750508 - 19880408 - 19800430 ANALOGS TO THE 7 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 4 DAYS AGO (D-4) FOR THE REGION FROM 20N to 70N LATITUDE AND 175E to 60W LONGITUDE INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES: 19800424 - 19880408 - 19840413 - 19750507 - 19800429 6 to 10 day Outlook Table OUTLOOK FOR APR 30 - MAY 04, 2006 STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN WASHINGTON A B OREGON A B NRN CALIF A B SRN CALIF A B IDAHO A B NEVADA A B W MONTANA A B E MONTANA A B WYOMING A N UTAH A B ARIZONA A N COLORADO A N NEW MEXICO A A N DAKOTA A B S DAKOTA A B NEBRASKA A B KANSAS A N OKLAHOMA N A N TEXAS B A S TEXAS B A W TEXAS N A MINNESOTA A B IOWA A B MISSOURI N N ARKANSAS N N LOUISIANA B A WISCONSIN A B ILLINOIS N B MISSISSIPPI B A MICHIGAN A B INDIANA N N OHIO N N KENTUCKY N N TENNESSEE N N ALABAMA B N NEW YORK A N VERMONT A N NEW HAMP A N MAINE A N MASS A N CONN N N RHODE IS N N PENN N A NEW JERSEY N A W VIRGINIA N A MARYLAND B A DELAWARE B A VIRGINIA B A N CAROLINA B A S CAROLINA B A GEORGIA B N FL PNHDL B N FL PENIN B N AK N SLOPE B N AK ALEUTIAN N B AK WESTERN B B AK INT BSN B A AK S INT B A AK SO COAST B A AK PNHDL B A 8 to 14 day Outlook Table OUTLOOK FOR MAY 02 - 08, 2006 STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN WASHINGTON A B OREGON A B NRN CALIF A B SRN CALIF A B IDAHO A B NEVADA A B W MONTANA A B E MONTANA A B WYOMING A B UTAH A B ARIZONA A B COLORADO A B NEW MEXICO A A N DAKOTA A B S DAKOTA A B NEBRASKA A B KANSAS A B OKLAHOMA N B N TEXAS N B S TEXAS N N W TEXAS N N MINNESOTA A B IOWA A B MISSOURI N B ARKANSAS N B LOUISIANA B N WISCONSIN A B ILLINOIS N B MISSISSIPPI B B MICHIGAN N N INDIANA N B OHIO N N KENTUCKY N B TENNESSEE N B ALABAMA B N NEW YORK N N VERMONT N N NEW HAMP N N MAINE N N MASS N N CONN N N RHODE IS N N PENN N N NEW JERSEY N N W VIRGINIA B N MARYLAND B A DELAWARE B A VIRGINIA B A N CAROLINA B A S CAROLINA B N GEORGIA B N FL PNHDL B N FL PENIN B B AK N SLOPE B B AK ALEUTIAN N B AK WESTERN B B AK INT BSN B N AK S INT B N AK SO COAST N B AK PNHDL N A LEGEND TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN A - ABOVE N - NEAR NORMAL A - ABOVE N - NEAR MEDIAN B - BELOW B - BELOW THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS PMDMRD. $$