PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSIONS FOR 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD 300 PM EDT WED APR 19 2006 6-10 DAY OUTLOOK VALID FOR APR 25 - 29 2006 TODAYS GFS AND ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN FORECASTS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT IN DEPICTING AN AMPLIFED 500-HPA CIRCULATION PATTERN OVER THE CONUS. A DEEP TROUGH IS FORECAST OVER THE NORTHEASTERN PART OF THE NATION WHILE ANOTHER WEAKER TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE OVER THE INTERIOR WESTERN STATES. A RIDGE IS FORECAST TO DOMINATE THE FLOW OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS. A DEEP TROUGH IS FORECAST TO DOMINATE MOST OF ALASKA ALTHOUGH A RIDGE IS FORECAST TO BUILD OVER THE EXTREME EASTERN PART OF THE STATE. THE CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CONTINUES TO BE MORE PROGRESSIVE AND LESS AMPLIFIED COMPARED TO THE OTHER ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLUTIONS. THE OPERATIONAL 0Z AND 6Z GFS ARE SIMILAR TO THE GFS-BASED ENSEMBLE MEANS THOUGH THE OPERATIONAL RUNS ARE MORE AMPLIFIED WITH THE CENTRAL U.S. RIDGE AND THE 0Z OPERATIONAL GFS IS MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH SHORTWAVE ENERGY UNDERCUTTING THE RIDGE OVER THE SOUTH/CENTRAL STATES. THE OPERATIONAL RUNS OF THE ECMWF ARE SIMILAR IN PHASE TO THE ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN BUT THE OPERATIONAL RUNS DEVELOP A DISTINCT SPLIT-FLOW PATTERN WITH A SOUTHERN STREAM UNDERCUTTING THE CENTRAL U.S. RIDGE. HEIGHTS OVER THE CONUS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED TO BE NEAR OR ABOVE NORMAL EXCEPT OVER THE NORTHEAST STATES WHERE BELOW NORMAL HEIGHTS ARE FORECAST. THE MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT ALMOST ALL OF ALASKA WILL HAVE BELOW NORMAL HEIGHTS. THE MODELS SHOW FAIRLY GOOD CONTINUITY WITH RESPECT TO THEIR SOLUTIONS FROM YESTERDAY ALTHOUGH THE 12Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN TODAY DEPICTS A DEEPER MORE PHASED TROUGH OVER NEW ENGLAND COMPARED TO ITS SOLUTION FROM YESTERDAY. THE NAO INDEX WHICH RECENTLY HAS BEEN CLOSE TO ZERO IS FORECAST TO BE POSITIVE BY DAY 7... BE NEAR ZERO BY DAY 10 AND REMAIN NEAR ZERO THROUGH DAY 14. THE PNA INDEX HAS RECENTLY BEEN WEAKLY POSITIVE AND IS FORECAST TO BE WEAKLY POSITIVE FOR THE NEXT TWO WEEKS. THE ECMWF ENSEMBLE SPAGHETTI DIAGRAMS INDICATE MOSTLY LOW SPREAD... THE GFS ENSEMBLE SPAGHETTI DIAGRAMS ALSO INDICATE LOW SPREAD FOR MOST OF THE FORECAST DOMAIN WITH MODERATE SPREAD DEPICTED IN THE SOUTHERN STREAM WITH RESPECT TO HOW MUCH SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVES INLAND OVER THE SOUTHWEST CONUS... WHILE THE CANADIAN ENSEMBLE SPAGHETTI DIAGRAMS INDICATE MODERATE TO LARGE SPREAD OVER MOST OF THE FORECAST DOMAIN. TEMPERATURES ACROSS MOST OF THE WESTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE CONUS ARE FORECAST TO BE NEAR OR ABOVE NORMAL UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE CENTRAL U.S. RIDGE AND ASSOCIATED AREA OF ABOVE NORMAL HEIGHTS. NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE COUNTRY AND MOST OF ALASKA DUE TO THE TROUGHS AND AREAS OF BELOW NORMAL HEIGHTS FORECAST THERE. THE PANHANDLE OF ALASKA IS EXPECTED TO HAVE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES DUE TO ANOMOUSLY STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW FORECAST THERE. PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER STATES AND MUCH OF THE WESTERN CONUS IS FORECAST TO BE BELOW NORMAL DUE TO SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE CENTRAL U.S. RIDGE... WHILE ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS ANTICIPATED FOR NORTHERN MAINE... THE SOUTH/CENTRAL PLAINS ... AND THE EASTERN TWO THIRDS OF ALASKA. TODAYS OFFICIAL 500-HPA BLEND CONSISTS OF 5 PERCENT OF TODAY'S OPERATIONAL 0Z GFS CENTERED ON DAY 8...5 PERCENT OF TODAY'S OPERATIONAL 6Z GFS CENTERED ON DAY 8...15 PERCENT OF TODAY'S OPERATIONAL ECMWF CENTERED ON DAY 7...15 PERCENT OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8...15 PERCENT OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8...15 PERCENT OF TODAY'S GFS SUPERENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8...AND 30 PERCENT OF TODAY'S EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 7. MODEL(S) OF THE DAY: ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN. FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD IS ABOVE AVERAGE TODAY... 4 ON A SCALE OF 1 TO 5... DUE TO GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT. THE 6-10 DAY TEMPERATURE PROG IS BASED ON THE KLEIN... ANALOG... AND NEURAL NETWORK SPECIFICATIONS FROM THE OFFICIAL BLEND... THE CPC AUTO TEMPERATURE FORECAST... KLEIN AND NEURAL NETWORK PROBABILITIES FROM THE GFS AND ECMWF ENSEMBLES... CALIBRATED AND UNCALIBRATED 2 METER TEMPERATURES FROM THE 0Z AND 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS... CDC CALIBRATED TEMPERATURE PROBABILITIES AND THE BIAS CORRECTED 850-HPA TEMPERATURES FROM THE 0Z OPERATIONAL GFS. THE 6-10 DAY PRECIPITATION PROG IS BASED ON THE ANALOG AND NEURAL NET SPECIFICATIONS FROM THE OFFICIAL BLEND AND THE INDIVIDUAL FORECAST MODELS... THE CPC AUTO PRECIPITATION FORECAST... EMC AND CPC CALIBRATED PRECIPITATION PERCENTAGES FROM THE GFS ENSEMBLES... CDC CALIBRATED PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES AND CALIBRATED PRECIPITATION FROM THE 0Z OPERATIONAL GFS AND 0Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN. 8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR APR 27 - MAY 03, 2006: DURING WEEK 2 THE GFS SUPERENSEMBLE MEAN PREDICTS THE 500-HPA FLOW PATTERN TO BE SLIGHTLY DEAMPLIFIED AND VERY SLIGHTLY PROGRESSIVE BUT OTHERWISE LITTLE CHANGED FROM THAT DEPICTED DURING THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD. THE 0Z OPERATIONAL GFS IS A BIT MORE AMPLIFIED AND PROGRESSIVE WITH THE PATTERN COMPARED TO THE GFS SUPERENSEMBLE MEAN WHILE THE 6Z OPERATIONAL GFS IS LESS AMPLIFIED THAN THE GFS SUPERENSEMBLE MEAN AND DEPICTS ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE CONUS. THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A TROUGH WILL DOMINATE WESTERN ALASKA WHILE A RIDGE IS FORECAST TO BUILD OVER EASTERN ALASKA. HEIGHTS ARE GENERALLY FORECAST TO BE ABOVE NORMAL OVER THE WESTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE CONUS AND BELOW NORMAL OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE CONUS... MOST OF THE SOUTHERN TIER STATES AND ALL OF ALASKA. THE 0Z AND 6Z OPERATIONAL GFS ARE FASTER TO LOWER HEIGHTS OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COMPARED TO THE ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLUTIONS. THE ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLUTIONS SHOW GOOD CONTINUITY WITH RESPECT TO THEIR SOLUTIONS FROM YESTERDAY WHILE THE 0Z OPERATIONAL GFS IS LESS PROGRESSIVE TODAY AND THE 6Z OPERATIONAL GFS IS MUCH LESS AMPLIFIED TODAY COMPARED TO YESTERDAY. THE ENSEMBLE SPAGHETTI DIAGRAMS INDICATE MODERATE TO LARGE SPREAD TODAY ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST DOMAIN. THE FORECAST TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION PATTERNS FOR WEEK 2 ARE VERY SIMILAR TO THAT FORECAST FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD. THE OFFICIAL 8-14 DAY HEIGHT PROG CONSISTS OF 15 PERCENT OF TODAY'S OPERATIONAL 0Z GFS CENTERED ON DAY 11...5 PERCENT OF TODAY'S OPERATIONAL 6Z GFS CENTERED ON DAY 11...15 PERCENT OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11...15 PERCENT OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11...AND 50 PERCENT OF TODAY'S GFS SUPERENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11. FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD IS ABOVE AVERAGE... 4 ON A SCALE OF 1 TO 5... DUE TO GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT. THE 8-14 DAY TEMPERATURE PROG IS BASED ON THE KLEIN... NEURAL NET... AND ANALOG SPECIFICATIONS FROM THE OFFICIAL BLEND... THE CPC AUTO TEMPERATURE FORECAST... KLEIN PROBABILITIES FROM THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS... UNCALIBRATED AND CALIBRATED 2 METER TEMPERATURES FROM THE 0Z AND 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS... CDC CALIBRATED TEMPERATURE PROBABILITIES... AND THE BIAS-CORRECTED 850-HPA TEMPERATURES FROM THE 0Z OPERATIONAL GFS. THE 8-14 DAY PRECIPITATION PROG IS BASED ON THE ANALOG AND NEURAL NET SPECIFICATIONS FROM THE OFFICIAL BLEND... ANALOG SPECIFICATIONS FROM THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEANS... CPC CALIBRATED PRECIPITATION PERCENTAGES FROM THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS... CDC CALIBRATED PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES... AND CALIBRATED PRECIPITATION FROM THE 0Z GFS OPERATIONAL AND 0Z ENSEMBLE MEAN FORECASTS. FORECASTER: R. SCHECHTER NOTES: OPERATIONAL CHANGE: AS OF JULY 5 2005 SHADED MAPS HAVE REPLACED THE CONTOUR-ONLY MAPS ON THE CPC WEB SITE. THE CONTOURED MAPS ARE STILL AVAILABLE AT THEIR CURRENT FILE NAMES - SO DIRECT-LINKED USERS ARE NOT AFFECTED. AWIPS GRAPHICS ARE ALSO NOT AFFECTED BY THIS CHANGE. AUTOMATED FORECASTS ARE ISSUED ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. OTHERWISE - FORECASTS INCORPORATE FORECASTER INPUT. THE NOTATION FOR THE CATEGORICAL FORECAST INDICATED ON THE MAPS IS THE SAME AS THAT IN THE TABLES: A-ABOVE N-NEAR NORMAL B-BELOW IN THE SOUTHWEST AND OTHER CLIMATOLOGICALLY DRY REGIONS - THERE WILL BE A GREATER THAN 33.3% CHANCE OF NO PRECIPITATION AND OCCASIONALLY EVEN A NORMAL (I.E. MEDIAN) VALUE OF ZERO - ESPECIALLY DURING THE DRY SEASONS. IN SUCH CASES A FORECAST OF NEAR NORMAL IS EFFECTIVELY A FORECAST OF LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION. THE NARRATIVE DESCRIPTION OF THE FORECAST PATTERNS FOR TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION FOR BOTH THE 6-10 OR 8-14 DAY PERIODS HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED. THE STATE TABLES FOR BOTH THE 6-10 AND 8-14 DAY PERIODS ARE NOW CONTAINED IN THIS MESSAGE...AVAILABLE AS PMDMRD ON AWIPS. THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER USES 1971-2000 BASE PERIOD MEANS FOR TEMPERATURE...PRECIPITATION...AND 500-HPA HEIGHTS AS REFERENCE IN THE CLIMATE OUTLOOKS. THE NEXT SET OF LONG-LEAD MONTHLY AND SEASONAL OUTLOOKS WILL BE RELEASED ON APRIL 20. AN UPDATED MONTHLY FORECAST FOR MAY WILL BE ISSUED ON APRIL 30. NEW NOTE EFFECTIVE MAR 16 2004: THE GLOSSARY FORMERLY FOUND AT THIS LOCATION WILL NO LONGER BE TRANSMITTED AS PART OF THIS MESSAGE. IF YOU WISH TO SEE THE DEFINITIONS OF TERMS USED IN THESE MESSAGES... PLEASE GO TO THE CPC WEB PAGE AT (USE LOWER CASE) HTTP://WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV AND FOLLOW THE APPROPRIATE LINKS. ANALOGS TO THE 5 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 3 DAYS AGO (D-3) FOR THE REGION FROM 20N to 70N LATITUDE AND 175E to 60W LONGITUDE INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES: 19640429 - 19550425 - 19750425 - 19520331 - 19710418 ANALOGS TO THE 7 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 4 DAYS AGO (D-4) FOR THE REGION FROM 20N to 70N LATITUDE AND 175E to 60W LONGITUDE INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES: 19990329 - 19990409 - 19750425 - 19640429 - 19530329 6 to 10 day Outlook Table OUTLOOK FOR APR 25 - 29, 2006 STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN WASHINGTON A B OREGON A B NRN CALIF A B SRN CALIF A N IDAHO A B NEVADA A B W MONTANA A B E MONTANA A B WYOMING A N UTAH A B ARIZONA A N COLORADO A A NEW MEXICO A N N DAKOTA A B S DAKOTA A N NEBRASKA A A KANSAS A A OKLAHOMA A A N TEXAS N N S TEXAS N N W TEXAS N A MINNESOTA A B IOWA A B MISSOURI A B ARKANSAS N N LOUISIANA N N WISCONSIN N B ILLINOIS N B MISSISSIPPI N N MICHIGAN B B INDIANA N B OHIO B B KENTUCKY N B TENNESSEE N B ALABAMA N B NEW YORK B N VERMONT B N NEW HAMP B N MAINE B A MASS B N CONN B N RHODE IS B N PENN B N NEW JERSEY B N W VIRGINIA B B MARYLAND B N DELAWARE B N VIRGINIA B N N CAROLINA N N S CAROLINA N N GEORGIA N N FL PNHDL N N FL PENIN N N AK N SLOPE B A AK ALEUTIAN B N AK WESTERN B N AK INT BSN B A AK S INT B A AK SO COAST N A AK PNHDL A A 8 to 14 day Outlook Table OUTLOOK FOR APR 27 - MAY 03, 2006 STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN WASHINGTON A B OREGON A B NRN CALIF A B SRN CALIF A N IDAHO A N NEVADA A N W MONTANA A N E MONTANA A N WYOMING A N UTAH A N ARIZONA A N COLORADO A A NEW MEXICO N A N DAKOTA A B S DAKOTA A B NEBRASKA A B KANSAS A N OKLAHOMA N N N TEXAS N N S TEXAS N N W TEXAS N A MINNESOTA A B IOWA A B MISSOURI N B ARKANSAS N B LOUISIANA B N WISCONSIN A B ILLINOIS N B MISSISSIPPI B B MICHIGAN N B INDIANA B B OHIO B B KENTUCKY B B TENNESSEE B B ALABAMA B B NEW YORK B B VERMONT B B NEW HAMP B B MAINE B N MASS B B CONN B B RHODE IS B B PENN B B NEW JERSEY B B W VIRGINIA B B MARYLAND B B DELAWARE B B VIRGINIA B B N CAROLINA B B S CAROLINA B B GEORGIA B B FL PNHDL B B FL PENIN B N AK N SLOPE B N AK ALEUTIAN B N AK WESTERN B N AK INT BSN B A AK S INT B A AK SO COAST N A AK PNHDL N A LEGEND TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN A - ABOVE N - NEAR NORMAL A - ABOVE N - NEAR MEDIAN B - BELOW B - BELOW THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS PMDMRD. $$