PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSIONS FOR 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD 300 PM EDT TUE APR 18 2006 6-10 DAY OUTLOOK VALID FOR APR 24 - 28 2006 TODAYS ENSEMBLE MEAN FORECASTS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT IN DEPICTING AN AMPLIFED 500-HPA CIRCULATION PATTERN OVER THE CONUS. TROUGHS ARE FORECAST OVER THE NORTHEASTERN AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE NATION WHILE A RIDGE IS EXPECTED OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS. THE CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN IS LESS AMPLIFIED AND MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH THE CIRCULATION FEATURES COMPARED TO THE OTHER ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLUTIONS. A DEEP TROUGH CENTERED OVER NORTHWESTERN ALASKA IS EXPECTED TO DOMINATE THE FLOW OVER MOST OF THE STATE. THE OPERATIONAL MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THEIR RESPECTIVE ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLUTIONS ALTHOUGH THE OPERATIONAL RUNS ARE NOTICEABLY MORE AMPLIFIED WITH THE FORECAST CIRCULATION PATTERN. THE OPERATIONAL ECMWF SOLUTIONS ARE THE MOST AMPLIFIED WITH THE TROUGH FORECAST FOR NEW ENGLAND. HEIGHTS OVER THE CONUS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED TO BE ABOVE NORMAL EXCEPT OVER MUCH OF THE EAST COAST AND OVER THE SOUTHWEST U.S. WHERE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL HEIGHTS ARE FORECAST. THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT ALMOST ALL OF ALASKA WILL HAVE BELOW NORMAL HEIGHTS. THE MODELS SHOW FAIRLY GOOD CONTINUITY WITH RESPECT TO THEIR SOLUTIONS FROM YESTERDAY ALTHOUGH THE 12Z OPERATIONAL ECMWF TODAY DEPICTS A MORE PHASED TROUGH ALONG THE EAST COAST COMPARED TO ITS SOLUTION FROM YESTERDAY. THE NAO INDEX WHICH RECENTLY HAS BEEN CLOSE TO ZERO IS FORECAST TO BE POSITIVE BY DAY 7 AND BE WEAKLY POSITIVE OR NEAR ZERO THROUGH DAY 14. THE PNA INDEX HAS ALSO RECENTLY BEEN CLOSE TO ZERO AND IS FORECAST TO BE WEAKLY POSITIVE FOR THE NEXT TWO WEEKS. THE ECMWF ENSEMBLE SPAGHETTI DIAGRAMS INDICATE MOSTLY LOW SPREAD EXCEPT NEAR THE TROUGH AXIS OVER NEW ENGLAND... THE GFS ENSEMBLE SPAGHETTI DIAGRAMS ALSO INDICATE LOW SPREAD FOR MOST OF THE FORECAST DOMAIN WITH MODERATE SPREAD DEPICTED FOR THE NORTHEAST TROUGH ... WHILE THE CANADIAN ENSEMBLE SPAGHETTI DIAGRAMS INDICATE MODERATE TO LARGE SPREAD OVER MOST OF THE FORECAST DOMAIN. TEMPERATURES ACROSS MOST OF THE WEST/CENTRAL CONUS ARE FORECAST TO BE NEAR OR ABOVE NORMAL UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE CENTRAL U.S. RIDGE AND ASSOCIATED AREA OF ABOVE NORMAL HEIGHTS. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED ALONG MOST OF THE EAST COAST... SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA... AND MOST OF ALASKA DUE TO THE TROUGHS AND AREAS OF BELOW NORMAL HEIGHTS FORECAST THERE. PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE EAST/CENTRAL STATES IS FORECAST TO BE BELOW NORMAL DUE TO SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE CENTRAL U.S. RIDGE... WHILE ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS ANTICIPATED FOR MOST OF THE EAST COAST... INTERIOR WEST AND MUCH OF EASTERN ALASKA DUE TO THE 500-HPA TROUGHS FORECAST THERE. THE WEST COAST IS FORECAST TO HAVE NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION AS THE WEST COAST TROUGH AXIS MOVES INLAND. TODAYS OFFICIAL 500-HPA BLEND CONSISTS OF 5 PERCENT OF TODAY'S OPERATIONAL 0Z GFS CENTERED ON DAY 8...10 PERCENT OF TODAY'S OPERATIONAL 6Z GFS CENTERED ON DAY 8...15 PERCENT OF TODAY'S OPERATIONAL ECMWF CENTERED ON DAY 7...15 PERCENT OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8...15 PERCENT OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8...15 PERCENT OF TODAY'S GFS SUPERENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8...5 PERCENT OF TODAY'S CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8...AND 20 PERCENT OF TODAY'S EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 7. MODEL(S) OF THE DAY: ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN. FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD IS ABOVE AVERAGE TODAY... 4 ON A SCALE OF 1 TO 5... DUE TO GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT. THE 6-10 DAY TEMPERATURE PROG IS BASED ON THE KLEIN... ANALOG... AND NEURAL NETWORK SPECIFICATIONS FROM THE OFFICIAL BLEND... THE CPC AUTO TEMPERATURE FORECAST... KLEIN AND NEURAL NETWORK PROBABILITIES FROM THE GFS AND ECMWF ENSEMBLES... CALIBRATED AND UNCALIBRATED 2 METER TEMPERATURES FROM THE 0Z AND 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS... CDC CALIBRATED TEMPERATURE PROBABILITIES AND THE BIAS CORRECTED 850-HPA TEMPERATURES FROM THE 0Z OPERATIONAL GFS. THE 6-10 DAY PRECIPITATION PROG IS BASED ON THE ANALOG AND NEURAL NET SPECIFICATIONS FROM THE OFFICIAL BLEND AND THE INDIVIDUAL FORECAST MODELS... THE CPC AUTO PRECIPITATION FORECAST... EMC AND CPC CALIBRATED PRECIPITATION PERCENTAGES FROM THE GFS ENSEMBLES... CDC CALIBRATED PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES AND CALIBRATED PRECIPITATION FROM THE 6Z OPERATIONAL GFS AND 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN. 8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR APR 26 - MAY 02, 2006: DURING WEEK 2 THE GFS SUPERENSEMBLE MEAN PREDICTS THE 500-HPA FLOW PATTERN TO BE SLIGHTLY DEAMPLIFIED BUT OTHERWISE LITTLE CHANGED FROM THAT DEPICTED DURING THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD. THE EXCEPTION IS OVER NEW ENGLAND WHERE THE TROUGH FORECAST FOR WEEK 2 IS SLIGHLY MORE AMPLIFIED... MORE PHASED... AND FURTHER NORTHEAST THAN FORECAST DURING DAYS 6-10. THE 0Z AND 6Z OPERATIONAL GFS ARE IN BASIC AGREEMENT WITH THE ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLUTIONS ALTHOUGH THE OPERATIONAL RUNS ARE MORE AMPLIFIED WITH THE FORECAST CIRCULATION FEATURES. THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A DEEP TROUGH WILL DOMINATE WESTERN ALASKA WHILE A RIDGE IS FORECAST TO BUILD OVER EASTERN ALASKA. HEIGHTS ARE GENERALLY FORECAST TO BE ABOVE NORMAL OVER THE CENTRAL TWO THIRDS OF THE CONUS AND BELOW NORMAL OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE CONUS AND ALL OF ALASKA. THE 0Z AND 6Z OPERATIONAL GFS ARE FASTER TO LOWER HEIGHTS OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COMPARED TO THE ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLUTIONS. THE ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLUTIONS SHOW GOOD CONTINUITY WITH RESPECT TO THEIR SOLUTIONS FROM YESTERDAY WHILE THE 0Z AND 6Z OPERATIONAL GFS ARE MORE AMPLIFIED TODAY COMPARED TO YESTERDAY. THE ENSEMBLE SPAGHETTI DIAGRAMS INDICATE LOW TO MODERATE SPREAD TODAY ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST DOMAIN. THE FORECAST TEMPERATURE PATTERN FOR WEEK 2 IS VERY SIMILAR TO THAT FORECAST FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD. THE FORECAST PRECIPITATION PATTERN FOR WEEK 2 IS ALSO VERY SIMILAR TO THAT FORECAST FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD. THE EXCEPTION IS FOR THE EAST COAST WHERE THE ELEVATED PROBABILITES FOR ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION DURING THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD ARE REPLACED BY ELEVATED PROBABILITES OF BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION. THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH THE FORECAST OF THE CENTRAL U.S. RIDGE ADVANCING VERY SLOWLY EASTWARD AS THE TROUGH OVER NEW ENGLAND AMPLIFIES AND LIFTS OUT TO THE NORTHEAST. THE OFFICIAL 8-14 DAY HEIGHT PROG CONSISTS OF 20 PERCENT OF TODAY'S OPERATIONAL 0Z GFS CENTERED ON DAY 11...5 PERCENT OF TODAY'S OPERATIONAL 6Z GFS CENTERED ON DAY 11...20 PERCENT OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11...20 PERCENT OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11...AND 35 PERCENT OF TODAY'S GFS SUPERENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11. FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD IS ABOVE AVERAGE... 4 ON A SCALE OF 1 TO 5... DUE TO GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT. THE 8-14 DAY TEMPERATURE PROG IS BASED ON THE KLEIN... NEURAL NET... AND ANALOG SPECIFICATIONS FROM THE OFFICIAL BLEND... THE CPC AUTO TEMPERATURE FORECAST... KLEIN PROBABILITIES FROM THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS... UNCALIBRATED AND CALIBRATED 2 METER TEMPERATURES FROM THE 0Z AND 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS... CDC CALIBRATED TEMPERATURE PROBABILITIES... THE BIAS-CORRECTED 850-HPA TEMPERATURES FROM THE 0Z OPERATIONAL GFS AND TELECONNECTIONS ON A POSITIVE HEIGHT ANOMALY CENTER AT 53N 95W. THE 8-14 DAY PRECIPITATION PROG IS BASED ON THE ANALOG AND NEURAL NET SPECIFICATIONS FROM THE OFFICIAL BLEND... ANALOG SPECIFICATIONS FROM THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEANS... CPC CALIBRATED PRECIPITATION PERCENTAGES FROM THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS... CDC CALIBRATED PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES... CALIBRATED PRECIPITATION FROM THE 0Z GFS OPERATIONAL AND 0Z ENSEMBLE MEAN FORECASTS... AND TELECONNECTIONS ON A POSITIVE HEIGHT ANOMALY CENTER AT 53N 95W. FORECASTER: R. SCHECHTER NOTES: OPERATIONAL CHANGE: AS OF JULY 5 2005 SHADED MAPS HAVE REPLACED THE CONTOUR-ONLY MAPS ON THE CPC WEB SITE. THE CONTOURED MAPS ARE STILL AVAILABLE AT THEIR CURRENT FILE NAMES - SO DIRECT-LINKED USERS ARE NOT AFFECTED. AWIPS GRAPHICS ARE ALSO NOT AFFECTED BY THIS CHANGE. AUTOMATED FORECASTS ARE ISSUED ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. OTHERWISE - FORECASTS INCORPORATE FORECASTER INPUT. THE NOTATION FOR THE CATEGORICAL FORECAST INDICATED ON THE MAPS IS THE SAME AS THAT IN THE TABLES: A-ABOVE N-NEAR NORMAL B-BELOW IN THE SOUTHWEST AND OTHER CLIMATOLOGICALLY DRY REGIONS - THERE WILL BE A GREATER THAN 33.3% CHANCE OF NO PRECIPITATION AND OCCASIONALLY EVEN A NORMAL (I.E. MEDIAN) VALUE OF ZERO - ESPECIALLY DURING THE DRY SEASONS. IN SUCH CASES A FORECAST OF NEAR NORMAL IS EFFECTIVELY A FORECAST OF LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION. THE NARRATIVE DESCRIPTION OF THE FORECAST PATTERNS FOR TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION FOR BOTH THE 6-10 OR 8-14 DAY PERIODS HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED. THE STATE TABLES FOR BOTH THE 6-10 AND 8-14 DAY PERIODS ARE NOW CONTAINED IN THIS MESSAGE...AVAILABLE AS PMDMRD ON AWIPS. THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER USES 1971-2000 BASE PERIOD MEANS FOR TEMPERATURE...PRECIPITATION...AND 500-HPA HEIGHTS AS REFERENCE IN THE CLIMATE OUTLOOKS. THE NEXT SET OF LONG-LEAD MONTHLY AND SEASONAL OUTLOOKS WILL BE RELEASED ON APRIL 20. AN UPDATED MONTHLY FORECAST FOR MAY WILL BE ISSUED ON APRIL 30. NEW NOTE EFFECTIVE MAR 16 2004: THE GLOSSARY FORMERLY FOUND AT THIS LOCATION WILL NO LONGER BE TRANSMITTED AS PART OF THIS MESSAGE. IF YOU WISH TO SEE THE DEFINITIONS OF TERMS USED IN THESE MESSAGES... PLEASE GO TO THE CPC WEB PAGE AT (USE LOWER CASE) HTTP://WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV AND FOLLOW THE APPROPRIATE LINKS. ANALOGS TO THE 5 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 3 DAYS AGO (D-3) FOR THE REGION FROM 20N to 70N LATITUDE AND 175E to 60W LONGITUDE INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES: 19990329 - 19990409 - 19750425 - 19550424 - 19700424 ANALOGS TO THE 7 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 4 DAYS AGO (D-4) FOR THE REGION FROM 20N to 70N LATITUDE AND 175E to 60W LONGITUDE INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES: 19990329 - 19990409 - 19670328 - 19680328 - 19650407 6 to 10 day Outlook Table OUTLOOK FOR APR 24 - 28, 2006 STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN WASHINGTON A N OREGON A B NRN CALIF N B SRN CALIF B N IDAHO A N NEVADA N N W MONTANA A A E MONTANA A A WYOMING A A UTAH A A ARIZONA N N COLORADO A A NEW MEXICO A A N DAKOTA A N S DAKOTA A B NEBRASKA A B KANSAS A B OKLAHOMA A B N TEXAS N N S TEXAS N B W TEXAS N N MINNESOTA A B IOWA A B MISSOURI A B ARKANSAS A B LOUISIANA N N WISCONSIN A B ILLINOIS A B MISSISSIPPI N N MICHIGAN N B INDIANA N B OHIO N B KENTUCKY N B TENNESSEE N B ALABAMA N N NEW YORK B N VERMONT N N NEW HAMP N N MAINE N N MASS B A CONN B A RHODE IS B A PENN B N NEW JERSEY B A W VIRGINIA B B MARYLAND B A DELAWARE B A VIRGINIA B N N CAROLINA B A S CAROLINA B A GEORGIA N N FL PNHDL B N FL PENIN B A AK N SLOPE B A AK ALEUTIAN B N AK WESTERN B N AK INT BSN B A AK S INT B A AK SO COAST B A AK PNHDL A A 8 to 14 day Outlook Table OUTLOOK FOR APR 26 - MAY 02, 2006 STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN WASHINGTON N N OREGON N B NRN CALIF N B SRN CALIF B N IDAHO A N NEVADA N N W MONTANA A A E MONTANA A N WYOMING A A UTAH N N ARIZONA N N COLORADO A A NEW MEXICO N N N DAKOTA A N S DAKOTA A N NEBRASKA A A KANSAS A A OKLAHOMA N A N TEXAS N A S TEXAS N N W TEXAS B A MINNESOTA A B IOWA A B MISSOURI A N ARKANSAS N N LOUISIANA N B WISCONSIN A B ILLINOIS N B MISSISSIPPI N B MICHIGAN N B INDIANA N B OHIO N B KENTUCKY B B TENNESSEE B B ALABAMA N B NEW YORK N B VERMONT N B NEW HAMP B B MAINE N N MASS B B CONN B B RHODE IS B B PENN B B NEW JERSEY B B W VIRGINIA B B MARYLAND B B DELAWARE B B VIRGINIA B B N CAROLINA B B S CAROLINA B B GEORGIA B B FL PNHDL B B FL PENIN B B AK N SLOPE B N AK ALEUTIAN B N AK WESTERN B A AK INT BSN B A AK S INT B A AK SO COAST N A AK PNHDL N A LEGEND TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN A - ABOVE N - NEAR NORMAL A - ABOVE N - NEAR MEDIAN B - BELOW B - BELOW THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS PMDMRD. $$