PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSIONS FOR 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD 300 PM EDT MON APR 17 2006 6-10 DAY OUTLOOK VALID FOR APR 23 - 27 2006 TODAYS ENSEMBLE MEAN FORECASTS FOR THE EXPECTED 500-HPA FLOW OVER THE CONUS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT IN DEPICTING AN AMPLIFED CIRCULATION PATTERN. TROUGHS ARE FORECAST OVER THE EASTERN AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE NATION WHILE A RIDGE IS EXPECTED OVER THE WEST/CENTRAL CONUS. THE CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN IS A BIT FURTHER WEST WITH THE LOCATION OF THE RIDGE AND DEPICTS SHORTWAVE ENERGY UNDERCUTTING THE RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN PART OF THE COUNTRY. A DEEP TROUGH CENTERED OVER NORTHWESTERN ALASKA IS EXPECTED TO DOMINATE THE FLOW OVER THE STATE. THE OPERATIONAL MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THEIR RESPECTIVE ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLUTIONS ALTHOUGH THERE ARE DIFFERENCES WITH RESPECT TO THE LOCATION AND AMPLITUDE OF INDIVIDUAL SHORTWAVE FEATURES. THE OPERATIONAL 6Z GFS IS MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH THE WEST COAST TROUGH WHILE THE 0Z AND 12Z OPERATIONAL ECMWF ARE MORE AMPLIFED AND SLIGHTLY MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH THE TROUGH FORECAST OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. HEIGHTS OVER THE CONUS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED TO BE ABOVE NORMAL EXCEPT OVER THE SOUTHEAST AND OVER CALIFORNIA WHERE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL HEIGHTS ARE FORECAST. THE OPERATIONAL 0Z GFS DEPICTS A DEEPER SHARPER TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND FORECASTS BELOW NORMAL HEIGHTS IN THIS REGION. THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT ALL OF ALASKA WILL HAVE BELOW NORMAL HEIGHTS EXCEPT OVER THE PANHANDLE WHERE NEAR OR ABOVE NORMAL HEIGHTS ARE FORECAST. THE MODELS SHOW FAIRLY GOOD CONTINUITY WITH RESPECT TO THEIR SOLUTIONS FROM YESTERDAY ALTHOUGH THE OPERATIONAL 6Z GFS IS MORE PROGESSIVE TODAY AND THE MOST RECENT OPERATIONAL ECMWF SOLUTIONS ARE DEEPER WITH THE EAST COAST TROUGH. THE NAO INDEX WHICH RECENTLY HAS BEEN CLOSE TO ZERO IS FORECAST TO BE WEAKLY POSITIVE FOR THE NEXT TWO WEEKS. THE PNA INDEX HAS ALSO RECENTLY BEEN CLOSE TO ZERO AND IS ALSO FORECAST TO BE WEAKLY POSITIVE FOR THE NEXT TWO WEEKS. THE ECMWF ENSEMBLE SPAGHETTI DIAGRAMS INDICATE RELATIVELY LOW SPREAD... THE GFS ENSEMBLE SPAGHETTI DIAGRAMS INDICATE LOW SPREAD FOR MOST OF THE FORECAST DOMAIN WITH MODERATE SPREAD DEPICTED FOR THE TROUGH OVER THE NORTHEAST CONUS... WHILE THE CANADIAN ENSEMBLE SPAGHETTI DIAGRAMS INDICATE MODERATE TO LARGE SPREAD OVER MOST OF THE FORECAST DOMAIN. TEMPERATURES ACROSS MOST OF THE CONUS ARE FORECAST TO BE NEAR OR ABOVE NORMAL UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE CENTRAL U.S. RIDGE AND ASSOCIATED AREA OF ABOVE NORMAL HEIGHTS. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED OVER FLORIDA... SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA... AND MOST OF ALASKA DUE TO THE TROUGHS AND AREAS OF BELOW NORMAL HEIGHTS FORECAST THERE. PRECIPITATION ACROSS MOST OF THE NORTHERN TIER STATES AND EAST/CENTRAL U.S IS FORECAST TO BE BELOW NORMAL DUE TO SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE CENTRAL U.S. RIDGE... WHILE ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS ANTICIPATED FOR THE NEW ENGLAND STATES... INTERIOR SOUTHWEST AND SOUTHEAST ALASKA DUE TO THE DYNAMICS OF THE 500-HPA TROUGHS FORECAST THERE. TODAYS OFFICIAL 500-HPA BLEND CONSISTS OF 5 PERCENT OF TODAY'S OPERATIONAL 0Z GFS CENTERED ON DAY 8...5 PERCENT OF TODAY'S OPERATIONAL 6Z GFS CENTERED ON DAY 8...10 PERCENT OF TODAY'S OPERATIONAL ECMWF CENTERED ON DAY 7...15 PERCENT OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8...15 PERCENT OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8...15 PERCENT OF TODAY'S GFS SUPERENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8...10 PERCENT OF TODAY'S CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8...AND 25 PERCENT OF TODAY'S EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 7. MODEL(S) OF THE DAY: ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN. FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD IS AVERAGE TODAY... 3 ON A SCALE OF 1 TO 5... DUE TO DECENT MODEL AGREEMENT. THE 6-10 DAY TEMPERATURE PROG IS BASED ON THE KLEIN... ANALOG... AND NEURAL NETWORK SPECIFICATIONS FROM THE OFFICIAL BLEND... THE CPC AUTO TEMPERATURE FORECAST... KLEIN AND NEURAL NETWORK PROBABILITIES FROM THE GFS AND ECMWF ENSEMBLES... CALIBRATED AND UNCALIBRATED 2 METER TEMPERATURES FROM THE 0Z AND 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS... CDC BIAS-CORRECTED TEMPERATURE PROBABILITIES AND THE BIAS CORRECTED 850-HPA TEMPERATURES FROM THE 0Z OPERATIONAL GFS. THE 6-10 DAY PRECIPITATION PROG IS BASED ON THE ANALOG AND NEURAL NET SPECIFICATIONS FROM THE OFFICIAL BLEND AND THE INDIVIDUAL FORECAST MODELS... THE CPC AUTO PRECIPITATION FORECAST... EMC AND CPC CALIBRATED PRECIPITATION PERCENTAGES FROM THE GFS ENSEMBLES... CDC BIAS-CORRECTED PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES AND CALIBRATED PRECIPITATION FROM THE 6Z OPERATIONAL GFS AND 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN. 8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR APR 25 - MAY 01, 2006: DURING WEEK 2 THE GFS SUPERENSEMBLE MEAN PREDICTS THE 500-HPA FLOW PATTERN TO BE SLIGHTLY DEAMPLIFIED BUT OTHERWISE LITTLE CHANGED FROM THAT DEPICTED DURING THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD. THE EXCEPTION IS OVER NEW ENGLAND WHERE THE TROUGH FORECAST FOR WEEK 2 IS SLIGHLY MORE AMPLIFIED AND FURTHER EAST THAN FORECAST DURING DAYS 6-10. THE 0Z OPERATIONAL GFS IS IN BASIC AGREEMENT WITH THE ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLUTIONS WHILE THE 6Z OPERATIONAL GFS CONTINUES TO BE MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH THE TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. A DEEP TROUGH IS FORECAST TO DOMINATE THE FLOW OVER MOST OF ALASKA. HEIGHTS ARE GENERALLY FORECAST TO BE ABOVE NORMAL OVER THE WESTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE CONUS AND BELOW NORMAL OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE CONUS AND ALL OF ALASKA. THE 6Z OPERATIONAL GFS IS FASTER TO RAISE HEIGHTS OVER THE EASTERN U.S. COMPARED TO THE OTHER MODEL SOLUTIONS. THE ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLUTIONS SHOW GOOD CONTINUITY WITH RESPECT TO THEIR SOLUTIONS FROM YESTERDAY... THE 0Z OPERATIONAL GFS IS A BIT LESS PROGRESSIVE TODAY COMPARED TO YESTERDAY WHILE THE 6Z OPERATIONAL GFS IS MORE PROGRESSIVE TODAY COMPARED TO YESTERDAY. THE ENSEMBLE SPAGHETTI DIAGRAMS INDICATE MODERATE SPREAD TODAY ALTHOUGH THERE IS FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE PLACEMENT OF THE RIDGE AND TROUGH AXES. THE FORECAST TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION PATTERNS FOR WEEK 2 ARE VERY SIMILAR TO THAT FORECAST FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD EXCEPT OVER NEW ENGLAND WHERE FLOW AROUND THE BACKSIDE OF THE AMPLIFYING TROUGH SHOULD LEAD TO SOMEWHAT COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS DURING WEEK 2. THE OFFICIAL 8-14 DAY HEIGHT PROG CONSISTS OF 15 PERCENT OF TODAY'S OPERATIONAL 0Z GFS CENTERED ON DAY 11...5 PERCENT OF TODAY'S OPERATIONAL 6Z GFS CENTERED ON DAY 11...25 PERCENT OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11...15 PERCENT OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11...AND 40 PERCENT OF TODAY'S GFS SUPERENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11. FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD IS AVERAGE... 3 ON A SCALE OF 1 TO 5... DUE TO REASONABLY GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT. THE 8-14 DAY TEMPERATURE PROG IS BASED ON THE KLEIN... NEURAL NET AND ANALOG SPECIFICATIONS FROM THE OFFICIAL BLEND... THE CPC AUTO TEMPERATURE FORECAST... KLEIN PROBABILITIES FROM THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS... UNCALIBRATED AND CALIBRATED 2 METER TEMPERATURES FROM THE 0Z AND 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS... CDC BIAS-CORRECTED TEMPERATURE PROBABILITIES AND THE BIAS-CORRECTED 850-HPA TEMPERATURES FROM THE 0Z OPERATIONAL GFS. THE 8-14 DAY PRECIPITATION PROG IS BASED ON THE ANALOG AND NEURAL NET SPECIFICATIONS FROM THE OFFICIAL BLEND... ANALOG SPECIFICATIONS FROM THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEANS... CPC CALIBRATED PRECIPITATION PERCENTAGES FROM THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS... CDC BIAS-CORRECTED PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES AND CALIBRATED PRECIPITATION FROM THE 6Z GFS OPERATIONAL AND 6ZENSEMBLE MEAN FORECASTS. FORECASTER: R. SCHECHTER NOTES: OPERATIONAL CHANGE: AS OF JULY 5 2005 SHADED MAPS HAVE REPLACED THE CONTOUR-ONLY MAPS ON THE CPC WEB SITE. THE CONTOURED MAPS ARE STILL AVAILABLE AT THEIR CURRENT FILE NAMES - SO DIRECT-LINKED USERS ARE NOT AFFECTED. AWIPS GRAPHICS ARE ALSO NOT AFFECTED BY THIS CHANGE. AUTOMATED FORECASTS ARE ISSUED ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. OTHERWISE - FORECASTS INCORPORATE FORECASTER INPUT. THE NOTATION FOR THE CATEGORICAL FORECAST INDICATED ON THE MAPS IS THE SAME AS THAT IN THE TABLES: A-ABOVE N-NEAR NORMAL B-BELOW IN THE SOUTHWEST AND OTHER CLIMATOLOGICALLY DRY REGIONS - THERE WILL BE A GREATER THAN 33.3% CHANCE OF NO PRECIPITATION AND OCCASIONALLY EVEN A NORMAL (I.E. MEDIAN) VALUE OF ZERO - ESPECIALLY DURING THE DRY SEASONS. IN SUCH CASES A FORECAST OF NEAR NORMAL IS EFFECTIVELY A FORECAST OF LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION. THE NARRATIVE DESCRIPTION OF THE FORECAST PATTERNS FOR TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION FOR BOTH THE 6-10 OR 8-14 DAY PERIODS HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED. THE STATE TABLES FOR BOTH THE 6-10 AND 8-14 DAY PERIODS ARE NOW CONTAINED IN THIS MESSAGE...AVAILABLE AS PMDMRD ON AWIPS. THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER USES 1971-2000 BASE PERIOD MEANS FOR TEMPERATURE...PRECIPITATION...AND 500-HPA HEIGHTS AS REFERENCE IN THE CLIMATE OUTLOOKS. THE NEXT SET OF LONG-LEAD MONTHLY AND SEASONAL OUTLOOKS WILL BE RELEASED ON APRIL 20. AN UPDATED MONTHLY FORECAST FOR MAY WILL BE ISSUED ON APRIL 30. NEW NOTE EFFECTIVE MAR 16 2004: THE GLOSSARY FORMERLY FOUND AT THIS LOCATION WILL NO LONGER BE TRANSMITTED AS PART OF THIS MESSAGE. IF YOU WISH TO SEE THE DEFINITIONS OF TERMS USED IN THESE MESSAGES... PLEASE GO TO THE CPC WEB PAGE AT (USE LOWER CASE) HTTP://WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV AND FOLLOW THE APPROPRIATE LINKS. ANALOGS TO THE 5 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 3 DAYS AGO (D-3) FOR THE REGION FROM 20N to 70N LATITUDE AND 175E to 60W LONGITUDE INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES: 19990329 - 19990409 - 19670328 - 19550417 - 19700425 ANALOGS TO THE 7 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 4 DAYS AGO (D-4) FOR THE REGION FROM 20N to 70N LATITUDE AND 175E to 60W LONGITUDE INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES: 19990329 - 19990408 - 19550417 - 19670328 - 19650407 6 to 10 day Outlook Table OUTLOOK FOR APR 23 - 27, 2006 STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN WASHINGTON A B OREGON A B NRN CALIF N N SRN CALIF N N IDAHO A B NEVADA A N W MONTANA A B E MONTANA A B WYOMING A N UTAH A N ARIZONA N N COLORADO A A NEW MEXICO A A N DAKOTA A B S DAKOTA A B NEBRASKA A N KANSAS A A OKLAHOMA A A N TEXAS N A S TEXAS N N W TEXAS N A MINNESOTA A B IOWA A B MISSOURI A B ARKANSAS N B LOUISIANA N N WISCONSIN A B ILLINOIS A B MISSISSIPPI N B MICHIGAN A B INDIANA A B OHIO N B KENTUCKY N B TENNESSEE N B ALABAMA N B NEW YORK N N VERMONT A A NEW HAMP A A MAINE A A MASS N A CONN N A RHODE IS N A PENN N N NEW JERSEY N A W VIRGINIA N B MARYLAND N N DELAWARE N N VIRGINIA N B N CAROLINA N B S CAROLINA N B GEORGIA B B FL PNHDL B N FL PENIN B N AK N SLOPE B N AK ALEUTIAN B N AK WESTERN B N AK INT BSN N A AK S INT N A AK SO COAST N A AK PNHDL A A 8 to 14 day Outlook Table OUTLOOK FOR APR 25 - MAY 01, 2006 STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN WASHINGTON A B OREGON A B NRN CALIF A N SRN CALIF N N IDAHO A B NEVADA A N W MONTANA A B E MONTANA A B WYOMING A N UTAH A N ARIZONA A A COLORADO A A NEW MEXICO A A N DAKOTA A B S DAKOTA A B NEBRASKA A N KANSAS A N OKLAHOMA N N N TEXAS N N S TEXAS B N W TEXAS N A MINNESOTA A B IOWA A B MISSOURI N B ARKANSAS N B LOUISIANA N B WISCONSIN A B ILLINOIS N B MISSISSIPPI N B MICHIGAN N B INDIANA N B OHIO N B KENTUCKY N B TENNESSEE N B ALABAMA N B NEW YORK N B VERMONT B B NEW HAMP B B MAINE B N MASS B B CONN N B RHODE IS B B PENN N B NEW JERSEY N B W VIRGINIA N B MARYLAND N B DELAWARE N B VIRGINIA N B N CAROLINA B B S CAROLINA B B GEORGIA B B FL PNHDL B B FL PENIN B B AK N SLOPE B A AK ALEUTIAN B N AK WESTERN B N AK INT BSN N A AK S INT B A AK SO COAST N A AK PNHDL N A LEGEND TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN A - ABOVE N - NEAR NORMAL A - ABOVE N - NEAR MEDIAN B - BELOW B - BELOW THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS PMDMRD. $$